Fringe vs Rebuild - 5 Year Trends - East vs West

[TheGlyde]

Hey guys,

So I rolled back into the board a little while ago, and after dusting off my old account its been pretty plain to see that the board has very low traffic these days.

Most of the die hard Magic fans I interacted with back in the T-Mac and Dwight days have had enough and moved on, and the majority of the discussion remaining stems around whether to hold the line on this current 'Playoff Fringe' team, or blow this thing up again and 'Rebuild'... Again.

The fringe playoff brigade will rattle off a list of teams that drafted stars in the middle of the draft or made franchise altering trades.
The rebuild brigade reminds us that while that works for some franchises, it hasn't in 31 years for the Magic.

There are a million examples of both approaches working/not working, and the posters on both sides cherry pick examples to support their argument, and around and around we go.

Both arguments lack the one thing that I always liked to dig through: quantifiable data.

So, how can we look and compare data on this? Well here's what I went with:

I broke each conference into 3 groups of 5 teams.
- Top 5 teams (Elite)
- Teams 6-10 (Playoff Fringe)
- Teams 11-15 (Rebuilding)

I admit that it's kind of an arbitrary line and at times you could make arguments that there were more/less than 5 teams in a partciular category, but hey, got to draw a line somewhere.

From these groupings, I started back in at the start of last decade, and followed each of the fringe and rebuilding teams through for 5 years, to see what happened to them.

I repeated the process for each group each year, until I had a five year subject size to try and draw meaningful conclusions from.

I will start by posting the graph of the results (and corresponding table of data) which gives the average win-loss record of the team groups, following them through from year 1 to year 5.

All posters can draw their own conclusions from the data, but I have added some of my own thoughts at the bottom.



My thoughts on the data and how I interpret it:
1. West teams in each respective category were in general stronger than the East.
Duh

2. West playoff fringe teams on average slowly got worse over a 5 year window.
The West is a tough conference, while you already have to be pretty good just to be a fringe playoff team in the West, if you aren't getting better, you are slowly getting passed by.

3. East playoff fringe teams on average remained fairly constant over a 5 year window.
The East is so weak and filled with teams constantly blowing it up, you can tread water here and remain at a similar level of success for a while.

4. West rebuilding teams are not as bad as East rebuilding teams
To rebuild in the East, you have to be really bad. Like, blow it up completely and get rid of anything that might accidentally win you games. In the West you can rebuild and be deep in the lottery while maybe keeping a few reasonable pieces as you go.

5. East rebuilds are longer term but higher reward
It takes 5 years, but completely gutting your team to an average low 20wins in a season (for the last decade at least) gave good long term (5 years) results. The best of any grouping by the 5th year, and by the 4th year, on average was yielding better results than East playoff fringe teams.

Disclaimer
This is only one snapshot in time (of the last decade). I fully acknowledge that previous decade(s) may have data that supports or contradicts this sample. Feel free to run the numbers if you are curious, one decade was enough for me

---

Bonus Data
One piece of data not represented in the graph and table is the number and type of teams that moved into/out of the Top 5 (Elite) teams each season.

The average was (just below) 2 out of 5 teams changed in/out of the top 5, each year across the decade.
To be exact; 35% of 'elite' teams were no longer 'elite' the next season.

Of the ~2 teams that moved into the 'elite' category each season, only 28.5% of the time was the jump made from previously rebuilding teams, while 71.5% of the time a fringe playoff team took the jump.

---

Anyway, hopefully interesting/useful for someone.

[Driguez]

Quality post. Nice to see you around.

[The Real Dalic]

I don't think I'm smart enough to know all these graphs and numbers. Lol

[zaymon]

Nice work but dont think this graph is any useful. You didnt take into account how and why teams aquired their talent. You didnt even mentioned which teams are in what tier while some teams were moving between them.

[TheGlyde]

Nice work but dont think this graph is any useful. You didnt take into account how and why teams aquired their talent. You didnt even mentioned which teams are in what tier while some teams were moving between them.

Well as I said anyone can list any specific example that supports or debunks one viewpoint. What I was searching for is the average trend.

Obviously some teams have done better than the trend shown, some have done worse, thats what makes it an average.

Historically speaking, rebuilding teams largely (but not always) acquire talent through the draft and free agency (eg Cleveland 2014-15)

Fringe playoff teams generally (But not always) improve through trades or internal improvement (eg Portland 2013-14)

To list each team in each 5 year window is 750 data points. This post was long enough already

[zaymon]

Nice work but dont think this graph is any useful. You didnt take into account how and why teams aquired their talent. You didnt even mentioned which teams are in what tier while some teams were moving between them.

Well as I said anyone can list any specific example that supports or debunks one viewpoint. What I was searching for is the average trend.

Obviously some teams have done better than the trend shown, some have done worse, thats what makes it an average.

Historically speaking, rebuilding teams largely (but not always) acquire talent through the draft and free agency (eg Cleveland 2014-15)

Fringe playoff teams generally (But not always) improve through trades or internal improvement (eg Portland 2013-14)

To list each team in each 5 year window is 750 data points. This post was long enough already

Can you list which teams you had in each tier?

[TheGlyde]

Can you list which teams you had in each tier?

Aight, I’m away from my laptop at the moment, but I will see if I can present that in a readable way.

The ‘year 1’ datapoint average for east rebuilding teams (as an example) is an average of 25 different teams win/loss percentages ie the bottom 5 teams in the standings from 2010-11, 2011-12, 2012-13, 2013-14 and 2014-15.

Likewise each other point in the graph is an average of 25 other win/loss percentages as those teams are followed through the 5 year window to track whether they got better or worse

[Popsicle1228]

Well looking at the graphs and the analysis, it is definitely something, but I am not quite sure if it is anything yet.

All jesting aside, nice work, I enjoyed looking over the data. Listing the teams in each category will provide some more context. On the downside it will likewise provide more scrutiny. Nonetheless, thank you for the work.

[Popsicle1228]

If I am looking at your data with the context provided and make a hypothetical assumption that all variables are accounted for to provide the most credible result, it is obvious that the data points to a rebuild as being the best option. However, I will be even more interested in reviewing the data again over the next 5 years because of the rule changes regarding the draft. How will the NBA recently making it harder for tanking teams to obtain a high lottery pick change your findings?

The issue with the Magic is that they botched the rebuild early in the process through trading young assets (Oladipo, Harris, Sabonis, etc.) for essentially what amounted to almost nothing. I think we can mostly agree that we had some young promising assets, and the Henny trades (or Devos, Martins, Skiles trades, pick who you want to blame), set us back for at least several years.

It is admittedly hard for me to get on board with a "tear it down" rebuild because I am just not certain that it works the way it used to when the NBA has worked to obfuscate the benefit of tanking. I think it was a good strategy before the rule changes, but I am just not sure it is anymore.

I think one of the biggest issues here is that we already tried the re-build, botched it, and now I do not know if the fans and management have the stomach to try it again after a near decade of poor basketball. I have been in the "lets try to make something happen through trades"/ "not blow it up" camp for quite some time. Build a winning culture and maybe we can lure a FA (pipe dream maybe idk) However, I don't really know if there are any realistic trades out there that can get us off of the treadmill. Especially considering our most prized trade asset (Gordan) has seemed to regress this season, and Orlando has not been a "cool" place for FAs to sign with in quite some time.

With the draft rule changes the way of building a successful team the quickest way possible may have shifted a bit. Admittedly I do not know how much because the rules are new and not enough time has passed to analyze the data, but it is certain to have at least some impact. That said, I think these points outline why there is such a divide in the board. Tanking is presumably less effective and there is no certain path to building the team into a contender the way the Magic have through the draft over their 30+ year history. On the other side of the coin, there is no definitive way to improve the team as it stands because it is difficult to determine the value of what we as Magic fans sometimes believe are coveted assets. Moreover, can we flip said assets for a superstar (not likely), and in this league it is pretty clear that a superstar is needed to be a contender. When looking at our team from this perspective, there does not seem to be a clear tried and true way to fix our mediocrity, and get us off the treadmill. It seems to me to be a "rock and a hard" place type situation.

In all, we are in such a mediocre/treadmill like place as a team that there is bound to be some infighting about how to properly move forward. To be frank, the future looks very murky (perhaps even bleak) at the moment and the growing divide among the members of this board is being fueled by a lack of any clear solutions in a time that is unprecedented due to the draft rule changes.

Sorry for the long rambling post. Just had to get my thoughts out.

[OrlandoNed]

If I am looking at your data with the context provided and make a hypothetical assumption that all variables are accounted for to provide the most credible result, it is obvious that the data points to a rebuild as being the best option. However, I will be even more interested in reviewing the data again over the next 5 years because of the rule changes regarding the draft. How will the NBA recently making it harder for tanking teams to obtain a high lottery pick change your findings?

The issue with the Magic is that they botched the rebuild early in the process through trading young assets (Oladipo, Harris, Sabonis, etc.) for essentially what amounted to almost nothing. I think we can mostly agree that we had some young promising assets, and the Henny trades (or Devos, Martins, Skiles trades, pick who you want to blame), set us back for at least several years.

It is admittedly hard for me to get on board with a "tear it down" rebuild because I am just not certain that it works the way it used to when the NBA has worked to obfuscate the benefit of tanking. I think it was a good strategy before the rule changes, but I am just not sure it is anymore.

I think one of the biggest issues here is that we already tried the re-build, botched it, and now I do not know if the fans and management have the stomach to try it again after a near decade of poor basketball. I have been in the "lets try to make something happen through trades"/ "not blow it up" camp for quite some time. Build a winning culture and maybe we can lure a FA (pipe dream maybe idk) However, I don't really know if there are any realistic trades out there that can get us off of the treadmill. Especially considering our most prized trade asset (Gordan) has seemed to regress this season, and Orlando has not been a "cool" place for FAs to sign with in quite some time.

With the draft rule changes the way of building a successful team the quickest way possible may have shifted a bit. Admittedly I do not know how much because the rules are new and not enough time has passed to analyze the data, but it is certain to have at least some impact. That said, I think these points outline why there is such a divide in the board. Tanking is presumably less effective and there is no certain path to building the team into a contender the way the Magic have through the draft over their 30+ year history. On the other side of the coin, there is no definitive way to improve the team as it stands because it is difficult to determine the value of what we as Magic fans sometimes believe are coveted assets. Moreover, can we flip said assets for a superstar (not likely), and in this league it is pretty clear that a superstar is needed to be a contender. When looking at our team from this perspective, there does not seem to be a clear tried and true way to fix our mediocrity, and get us off the treadmill. It seems to me to be a "rock and a hard" place type situation.

In all, we are in such a mediocre/treadmill like place as a team that there is bound to be some infighting about how to properly move forward. To be frank, the future looks very murky (perhaps even bleak) at the moment and the growing divide among the members of this board is being fueled by a lack of any clear solutions in a time that is unprecedented due to the draft rule changes.

Sorry for the long rambling post. Just had to get my thoughts out.

Don't apologize, that's a great post.

Great summary of our situation. My thought process with our situation is that we all know (even the homers deep down) what our ceiling is for this team, including a reasonable expectation of potential growth from Isaac, Fultz and Bamba, and that is likely a 5 seed in the playoffs, maybe an upset or two, but never even close to winning 2 consecutive series. There's only so far you can go with a top 10 defense and a bottom 3 offense and at some point, the Vucevic era will have to end, either by willingly ripping that bandage off sooner or stubbornly and stupidly wait until Vuc starts aging out and we will have to rebuild.

So why wait for the inevitable? Why keep exercising the Sunk Cost Fallacy? Why keep doubling and tripling down on potential middling success at best and praying for miracles like an unreasonable growth from a tapped out asset? Why play the odds of a million-to-one miracle like a Giannis in the middle of the 1st round or Vucevic and Fournier turning into Bird and McHale or Isaac and Fultz becoming bonafide #1 options on offense? Why ignore the immutable odds of the draft and the likelihood of finding the foundation of a championship roster there?

Our team needs to know when to cut their losses and stop cowardly burying their heads in the sands pretending the inevitable true rebuild will go away.

[Blue_and_Whte]

If I am looking at your data with the context provided and make a hypothetical assumption that all variables are accounted for to provide the most credible result, it is obvious that the data points to a rebuild as being the best option. However, I will be even more interested in reviewing the data again over the next 5 years because of the rule changes regarding the draft. How will the NBA recently making it harder for tanking teams to obtain a high lottery pick change your findings?

The issue with the Magic is that they botched the rebuild early in the process through trading young assets (Oladipo, Harris, Sabonis, etc.) for essentially what amounted to almost nothing. I think we can mostly agree that we had some young promising assets, and the Henny trades (or Devos, Martins, Skiles trades, pick who you want to blame), set us back for at least several years.

It is admittedly hard for me to get on board with a "tear it down" rebuild because I am just not certain that it works the way it used to when the NBA has worked to obfuscate the benefit of tanking. I think it was a good strategy before the rule changes, but I am just not sure it is anymore.

I think one of the biggest issues here is that we already tried the re-build, botched it, and now I do not know if the fans and management have the stomach to try it again after a near decade of poor basketball. I have been in the "lets try to make something happen through trades"/ "not blow it up" camp for quite some time. Build a winning culture and maybe we can lure a FA (pipe dream maybe idk) However, I don't really know if there are any realistic trades out there that can get us off of the treadmill. Especially considering our most prized trade asset (Gordan) has seemed to regress this season, and Orlando has not been a "cool" place for FAs to sign with in quite some time.

With the draft rule changes the way of building a successful team the quickest way possible may have shifted a bit. Admittedly I do not know how much because the rules are new and not enough time has passed to analyze the data, but it is certain to have at least some impact. That said, I think these points outline why there is such a divide in the board. Tanking is presumably less effective and there is no certain path to building the team into a contender the way the Magic have through the draft over their 30+ year history. On the other side of the coin, there is no definitive way to improve the team as it stands because it is difficult to determine the value of what we as Magic fans sometimes believe are coveted assets. Moreover, can we flip said assets for a superstar (not likely), and in this league it is pretty clear that a superstar is needed to be a contender. When looking at our team from this perspective, there does not seem to be a clear tried and true way to fix our mediocrity, and get us off the treadmill. It seems to me to be a "rock and a hard" place type situation.

In all, we are in such a mediocre/treadmill like place as a team that there is bound to be some infighting about how to properly move forward. To be frank, the future looks very murky (perhaps even bleak) at the moment and the growing divide among the members of this board is being fueled by a lack of any clear solutions in a time that is unprecedented due to the draft rule changes.

Sorry for the long rambling post. Just had to get my thoughts out.

Don't apologize, that's a great post.

Great summary of our situation. My thought process with our situation is that we all know (even the homers deep down) what our ceiling is for this team, including a reasonable expectation of potential growth from Isaac, Fultz and Bamba, and that is likely a 5 seed in the playoffs, maybe an upset or two, but never even close to winning 2 consecutive series. There's only so far you can go with a top 10 defense and a bottom 3 offense and at some point, the Vucevic era will have to end, either by willingly ripping that bandage off sooner or stubbornly and stupidly wait until Vuc starts aging out and we will have to rebuild.

So why wait for the inevitable? Why keep exercising the Sunk Cost Fallacy? Why keep doubling and tripling down on potential middling success at best and praying for miracles like an unreasonable growth from a tapped out asset? Why play the odds of a million-to-one miracle like a Giannis in the middle of the 1st round or Vucevic and Fournier turning into Bird and McHale or Isaac and Fultz becoming bonafide #1 options on offense? Why ignore the immutable odds of the draft and the likelihood of finding the foundation of a championship roster there?

Our team needs to know when to cut their losses and stop cowardly burying their heads in the sands pretending the inevitable true rebuild will go away.

The "Vuc Era" has nothing to do with us being a treadmill team it has to do with poor management, poor drafting, inactivity in the trade market to at least to add an elite go to scorer to a well established core group. The day they traded oladipo for Ibaka and signed Biyombo I said it would either work great for us or turn us into a treadmill team, and the latter is exactly what happened while everyone else swore up and down that Biyombo was better than Vuc.

In your scenario if they rip the bandage off as you say what guarantees do we have that they wont follow their same raw, long armed forwards with "potential" ideology? Our core has reached their ceiling so I personally wouldn't mind a change of scenery but the situation we're in is no fault of any of the players on this team and moving one guy wont change that.

[jezzerinho]

If rebuild is what the data suggests should be the solution - and the new anti-tank rules make it harder to wim the lottery - then you have r to have a hybrid version of the rebuild.

That would d be something like aiming for a top 8 pick but investing disproportionately in scouting and even more so in coaching. Part of that scouting investment is identifying what you're re looking for that will make you a conference leading team.

I think Weltham are largely following this plan, though not banking on lottery picks. They didnt pull the Longbois plan out of their azzez, though the jury is out on whether it's a valid one. Id say that someone like Miami is doing a lot better - seemingly understanding better what makes a sucessful NBA player and coaching the guys they identify up quickly and well.

[zaymon]

If rebuild is what the data suggests should be the solution - and the new anti-tank rules make it harder to wim the lottery - then you have r to have a hybrid version of the rebuild.

That would d be something like aiming for a top 8 pick but investing disproportionately in scouting and even more so in coaching. Part of that scouting investment is identifying what you're re looking for that will make you a conference leading team.

I think Weltham are largely following this plan, though not banking on lottery picks. They didnt pull the Longbois plan out of their azzez, though the jury is out on whether it's a valid one. Id say that someone like Miami is doing a lot better - seemingly understanding better what makes a sucessful NBA player and coaching the guys they identify up quickly and well.

Will Miami win a championship during Butler run ? I think their team will be worse come playoffs. I want to see those unathletic shooters defend when intensity raises. Butler is aging, same with Dragic who is crazy underrated for their bench. They have no assets left. I could argue they are more treadmill team than us.

[pepe1991]

You can tank for 3 years and never win lottery , and never draft withing top 5 , never get anything close to cornerstone and simply got "outsucked" after it,as it's almost impossible to stay on bottom for that long, as your front office will probably be sacked by that point.

Look at "reformed" draft from 2019.
19 -63 Cavs drafted 5th.
Suns with 19 wins drafted 6th
Knicks with 17 wins ( worst record) drafted 3rd.

needles to say non of them got franchize talent.

Lakers, with 37 wins jumped to 4th pick.

You simply can't "gameplan " tank for this odds or take it as serious tool to rebuild a team.
Rebuilding in old fashioned- bottom it out way simply isn't useful or smart. It's actually pretty pointless and dangerous.

If you describe every non title contender team as threadmill team, than only Lakers and Clippers are not -threadmill teams. Because it's not really objective or realistic that any other team will actually win it this year other than them.

[jezzerinho]

If rebuild is what the data suggests should be the solution - and the new anti-tank rules make it harder to wim the lottery - then you have r to have a hybrid version of the rebuild.

That would d be something like aiming for a top 8 pick but investing disproportionately in scouting and even more so in coaching. Part of that scouting investment is identifying what you're re looking for that will make you a conference leading team.

I think Weltham are largely following this plan, though not banking on lottery picks. They didnt pull the Longbois plan out of their azzez, though the jury is out on whether it's a valid one. Id say that someone like Miami is doing a lot better - seemingly understanding better what makes a sucessful NBA player and coaching the guys they identify up quickly and well.

Will Miami win a championship during Butler run ? I think their team will be worse come playoffs. I want to see those unathletic shooters defend when intensity raises. Butler is aging, same with Dragic who is crazy underrated for their bench. They have no assets left. I could argue they are more treadmill team than us.

My point is that in the past two drafts theyve added pieces that appear to have high starter potential, without high picks and not following "metrics-based" evaluation of draftees. Plus thsy got Butler, which in itself was huge. What i wouldnt give to have Butler on the Magic...

[VFX]

If I am looking at your data with the context provided and make a hypothetical assumption that all variables are accounted for to provide the most credible result, it is obvious that the data points to a rebuild as being the best option. However, I will be even more interested in reviewing the data again over the next 5 years because of the rule changes regarding the draft. How will the NBA recently making it harder for tanking teams to obtain a high lottery pick change your findings?

The issue with the Magic is that they botched the rebuild early in the process through trading young assets (Oladipo, Harris, Sabonis, etc.) for essentially what amounted to almost nothing. I think we can mostly agree that we had some young promising assets, and the Henny trades (or Devos, Martins, Skiles trades, pick who you want to blame), set us back for at least several years.

It is admittedly hard for me to get on board with a "tear it down" rebuild because I am just not certain that it works the way it used to when the NBA has worked to obfuscate the benefit of tanking. I think it was a good strategy before the rule changes, but I am just not sure it is anymore.

I think one of the biggest issues here is that we already tried the re-build, botched it, and now I do not know if the fans and management have the stomach to try it again after a near decade of poor basketball. I have been in the "lets try to make something happen through trades"/ "not blow it up" camp for quite some time. Build a winning culture and maybe we can lure a FA (pipe dream maybe idk) However, I don't really know if there are any realistic trades out there that can get us off of the treadmill. Especially considering our most prized trade asset (Gordan) has seemed to regress this season, and Orlando has not been a "cool" place for FAs to sign with in quite some time.

With the draft rule changes the way of building a successful team the quickest way possible may have shifted a bit. Admittedly I do not know how much because the rules are new and not enough time has passed to analyze the data, but it is certain to have at least some impact. That said, I think these points outline why there is such a divide in the board. Tanking is presumably less effective and there is no certain path to building the team into a contender the way the Magic have through the draft over their 30+ year history. On the other side of the coin, there is no definitive way to improve the team as it stands because it is difficult to determine the value of what we as Magic fans sometimes believe are coveted assets. Moreover, can we flip said assets for a superstar (not likely), and in this league it is pretty clear that a superstar is needed to be a contender. When looking at our team from this perspective, there does not seem to be a clear tried and true way to fix our mediocrity, and get us off the treadmill. It seems to me to be a "rock and a hard" place type situation.

In all, we are in such a mediocre/treadmill like place as a team that there is bound to be some infighting about how to properly move forward. To be frank, the future looks very murky (perhaps even bleak) at the moment and the growing divide among the members of this board is being fueled by a lack of any clear solutions in a time that is unprecedented due to the draft rule changes.

Sorry for the long rambling post. Just had to get my thoughts out.

Don't apologize, that's a great post.

Great summary of our situation. My thought process with our situation is that we all know (even the homers deep down) what our ceiling is for this team, including a reasonable expectation of potential growth from Isaac, Fultz and Bamba, and that is likely a 5 seed in the playoffs, maybe an upset or two, but never even close to winning 2 consecutive series. There's only so far you can go with a top 10 defense and a bottom 3 offense and at some point, the Vucevic era will have to end, either by willingly ripping that bandage off sooner or stubbornly and stupidly wait until Vuc starts aging out and we will have to rebuild.

So why wait for the inevitable? Why keep exercising the Sunk Cost Fallacy? Why keep doubling and tripling down on potential middling success at best and praying for miracles like an unreasonable growth from a tapped out asset? Why play the odds of a million-to-one miracle like a Giannis in the middle of the 1st round or Vucevic and Fournier turning into Bird and McHale or Isaac and Fultz becoming bonafide #1 options on offense? Why ignore the immutable odds of the draft and the likelihood of finding the foundation of a championship roster there?

Our team needs to know when to cut their losses and stop cowardly burying their heads in the sands pretending the inevitable true rebuild will go away.

It’s totally understandable why people refuse to accept that this team has a ceiling and that “blowing it up” would be unbearable. That being said, this is still essentially Hennigan’s roster, and the primary offense for this team. I personally don’t believe the tradable players on this roster would return great value, or enough value that wouldn’t be a lateral move. Blowing it up feels like the best option to attaining greater talent to put next to a great defensive prospect in Isaac. If not for the draft picks, then for a bigger potential return for some guys.

The argument against this is thinking that Bamba, Fultz, and Isaac have a significant amount of potential on offense. Enough potential to overcome the shortcomings of the rest of this current roster. That’s extremely doubtful considering all three are not close to where we need them to be compared to the rest of the league.

I don’t really know what people are expecting to achieve with this roster. A team like Oklahoma City was gutted of their stars, acquired a huge future return, and still somehow managed to remain competitive in the west. Orlando didn’t really upgrade their roster from last year, has had an injury riddled season, and locked up a bunch of money into the status quo. The FO will need to make a serious move if they want to raise the ceiling of this team.

The fall from “fringe playoff team” to “rebuild” wouldn’t even be that far IMO. I mean really... we would have to be as good or better than Washington, Cleveland, Atlanta, New York, etc. in the East regardless and the rest of the teams are either true competitors or in a similar boat. This roster wouldn’t even be a “fringe playoff” team if it were fully healthy in the west. One could argue that the draft doesn’t help us as much as it used to. True, but that doesn’t mean this team shouldn’t be banking on young potential as opposed to what hasn’t worked.

The FO should be doing everything in their power to find the next star. That isn’t going to happen in free agency, or picking 16th and praying for the second coming of Giannis. Getting swept in the first round of the eastern conference isn’t worth forgoing a real future.

[OrlandoNed]

Don't apologize, that's a great post.

Great summary of our situation. My thought process with our situation is that we all know (even the homers deep down) what our ceiling is for this team, including a reasonable expectation of potential growth from Isaac, Fultz and Bamba, and that is likely a 5 seed in the playoffs, maybe an upset or two, but never even close to winning 2 consecutive series. There's only so far you can go with a top 10 defense and a bottom 3 offense and at some point, the Vucevic era will have to end, either by willingly ripping that bandage off sooner or stubbornly and stupidly wait until Vuc starts aging out and we will have to rebuild.

So why wait for the inevitable? Why keep exercising the Sunk Cost Fallacy? Why keep doubling and tripling down on potential middling success at best and praying for miracles like an unreasonable growth from a tapped out asset? Why play the odds of a million-to-one miracle like a Giannis in the middle of the 1st round or Vucevic and Fournier turning into Bird and McHale or Isaac and Fultz becoming bonafide #1 options on offense? Why ignore the immutable odds of the draft and the likelihood of finding the foundation of a championship roster there?

Our team needs to know when to cut their losses and stop cowardly burying their heads in the sands pretending the inevitable true rebuild will go away.

The "Vuc Era" has nothing to do with us being a treadmill team it has to do with poor management, poor drafting, inactivity in the trade market to at least to add an elite go to scorer to a well established core group. The day they traded oladipo for Ibaka and signed Biyombo I said it would either work great for us or turn us into a treadmill team, and the latter is exactly what happened while everyone else swore up and down that Biyombo was better than Vuc.

In your scenario if they rip the bandage off as you say what guarantees do we have that they wont follow their same raw, long armed forwards with "potential" ideology? Our core has reached their ceiling so I personally wouldn't mind a change of scenery but the situation we're in is no fault of any of the players on this team and moving one guy wont change that.

Of course I don't think it's the fault of a single player and of course there is no guarantee that they won't just go after more long bois. My beef is almost entirely with management content on an offense built on the same foundation as our previous regime for the millionth year in a row. It's just been done to death and everybody should know by now what we are getting and nobody should be shocked that after 8 years a team built around a slow center like Vuc and surrounding him with raw, athletic projects with questionable offensive skills isn't getting us anywhere. It just boggles the mind that WeHam still has not added a true offensive difference maker since they got here 3 years ago. (I don't really consider the addition of Fultz, nobody really knew exactly what we were going to get out of him immediately). How can anybody take this job and think that doing almost the exact same thing as the guy they are replacing is the right thing to do?

I don't blame Vuc for being the guy that 2 different management groups have hitched their wagon to, but it's hard to not consider the Post Dwight era the Vuc era because he has been the single constant for nearly a decade. Vuc is not a bad player but he has proven time and time again that we will only go as far as he will take us and it's just not far enough. If he hasn't done it by now after all this time, how can we honestly expect it ever will happen? I just don't think there will be any possibility for the internal development of a new alpha on this team, whether it's Fultz or a draft prospect who is an established offensive talent entering the NBA, when that development always comes second to the commitment to a mediocre, Vuc-focused offense.

[pepe1991]

Hawks, Knicks and Cavs are rebuilding for solid 3 years now. Outside of Trae Young ( second worst guard defender in nba ,who is pretty much eastern version of Devin Booker , empty stats on 15 wins teams) they have nobody to build teams around.

Using word "rebuilding" loosly because they are doing nothing but spinning wheel of pathetic sucking for another year without any plan for future. Much like Suns and MInessota spent last 10 years "rebuiding" and never rebuilt.

RJ Barrett
Sexton
Knox
Hunter
Garland


Why are you pretending Magic didn't tank and it didn't work? Gordon, Hezonja,Payton, Isaac, Bamba are all lottery picks.
Where are stars?

How da F- somebody can advocate for tanking knowing that Suns won 18 games to draft f***ing Jarrett Culver

[VFX]

Hawks, Knicks and Cavs are rebuilding for solid 3 years now. Outside of Trae Young ( second worst guard defender in nba ,who is pretty much eastern version of Devin Booker , empty stats on 15 wins teams) they have nobody to build teams around.

Using word "rebuilding" loosly because they are doing nothing but spinning wheel of pathetic sucking for another year without any plan for future. Much like Suns and MInessota spent last 10 years "rebuiding" and never rebuilt.

RJ Barrett
Sexton
Knox
Hunter
Garland


Why are you pretending Magic didn't tank and it didn't work? Gordon, Hezonja,Payton, Isaac, Bamba are all lottery picks.
Where are stars?

How da F- somebody can advocate for tanking knowing that Suns won 18 games to draft f***ing Jarrett Culver

For every one of these examples there is a

Boston
Dallas
Philadelphia
Sacramento
Utah

Drafting a star player requires luck in the lottery, appropriate scouting, and available talent. Having better odds would have landed us KP or Doncic, and we ended up with Mario and Bamba. Minnesota decided to build around a new age big and a wildly inconsistent wing that never lived up to expectations. Neither of which are known for their work ethic or grit. Suns missed on nearly every pick (including Ayton) except arguably Booker. Both franchises have accomplished exactly the same amount as Orlando in the same timeframe - nothing.

Tanking isn’t the answer, especially now because of the rule changes. That’s not what this thread is about. Rebuilding doesn’t mean “Tanking” as much as it means making smart trades to raise the ceiling of the team at the expense of nba veterans that keep Orlando a treadmill.

For what it’s worth, I’d much rather have a team like New Orleans or Memphis right now than Orlando. Being in a position to land/attract star players while having losing records, likely missing the playoffs, and playing fun to watch basketball.

[pepe1991]

Hawks, Knicks and Cavs are rebuilding for solid 3 years now. Outside of Trae Young ( second worst guard defender in nba ,who is pretty much eastern version of Devin Booker , empty stats on 15 wins teams) they have nobody to build teams around.

Using word "rebuilding" loosly because they are doing nothing but spinning wheel of pathetic sucking for another year without any plan for future. Much like Suns and MInessota spent last 10 years "rebuiding" and never rebuilt.

RJ Barrett
Sexton
Knox
Hunter
Garland


Why are you pretending Magic didn't tank and it didn't work? Gordon, Hezonja,Payton, Isaac, Bamba are all lottery picks.
Where are stars?

How da F- somebody can advocate for tanking knowing that Suns won 18 games to draft f***ing Jarrett Culver

For every one of these examples there is a

Boston
Dallas
Philadelphia
Sacramento
Utah

Drafting a star player requires luck in the lottery, appropriate scouting, and available talent. Having better odds would have landed us KP or Doncic, and we ended up with Mario and Bamba. Minnesota decided to build around a new age big and a wildly inconsistent wing that never lived up to expectations. Neither of which are known for their work ethic or grit. Suns missed on nearly every pick (including Ayton) except arguably Booker. Both franchises have accomplished exactly the same amount as Orlando in the same timeframe - nothing.

Tanking isn’t the answer, especially now because of the rule changes. That’s not what this thread is about. Rebuilding doesn’t mean “Tanking” as much as it means making smart trades to raise the ceiling of the team at the expense of nba veterans that keep Orlando a treadmill.

For what it’s worth, I’d much rather have a team like New Orleans or Memphis right now than Orlando. Being in a position to land/attract star players while having losing records, likely missing the playoffs, and playing fun to watch basketball.

So why do you need to blow whole roster out to make right decisions?

Celtics, Jazz and Dallas never tanked.

Memphis and Pelicans, much like Magic, Suns, Kings will never attract free agents no matter what they "build" because free agents have zero desire to go there. You know it ,i know it, everybody knows it.
Even when smaller market teams get superstar on rookie contract ( Pelicans = Davis, Cavs = Lebron, Durant, Westbrook, Harden = OKC) they still never attract free agents and after few years stars leave and small market teams are back at square one.
Giannis already hinted what he will do if Bucks fail this year.

I saw on Jazz thread that Bojan Bogdanovic is the biggest free agent name they signed in their history. I love me some Bojan, but hello, it's freaking Jazz, team that had Malone and Stock, was regular NBA finals team, has big history, yet... because of location nobody ever goes there.
This is not really secret, after Davis got traded Holiday went to media and said that he only re-signed there because of him.

Kawhi walked away from championship team to go to play in LA.

We can talk here for years about this topic, reality is cruel. NBA stars care about location more than situation.