Sixers are worse without Embiid (duh) but wait there's more

[Edug27]

If this trade happens it's with the assumption that Dray would be on the move as well, so they can just plug Simmons into Drays spot.

Unless the return for Green is a lot more than I think it would be, I don't like this series of moves from GS. Simmons is a unique player, but so is Draymond, and Draymond's uniqueness has already proven to be a great fit with Steph and Klay. Yeah, Simmons is a lot younger, but the title window for Golden State's big 3 is only a few more years anyway.

More specifically, Curry and Thompson's gravity gets Dray a lot of WIDE open threes. He's not a good enough shooter to make more than about a league average percentage even when wide open, but at least he takes them and makes some. You get Simmons that shot and he'll either make another unnecessary pass or drive the lane. That's not what their offense is supposed to do.

That's exactly how teams started playing defense on GS... Leave Dray open, because they will pass it to him, and he will shoot it. GS has a better shot at Steph shooting over the double team than that.

[Wilfried]

do they have a player that can create a shot out of nothing? if you want to win a title, you need that type of player. they had one in butler. now they don't. so they will struggle.

Think this is the main part of their problem.
Probably hoped that Harris and Richardson could fill that void, together with Simmons becoming more of an outside threat.

Still feel it's a bit too early to think they can't pull this together.

And if not, I feel Simmons is traded this summer.

[TdotRap4Lyfe]

Maybe they should make the Raptors an order for Marc.

[Hussien Fatal]

That might seem like something Brown has no control over, but 3pt% speaks volumes about the flow of the offense. Get this:

Tobias shot 43.4% from 3pt over 55 games for the Clippers last year, and 41.1% the previous year for DET/LAC combined. This is a guy who averaged 5.3 attempts during that 1 1/2 season stretch. I remember Tobi talking about how excited he was to demonstrate his improved 3pt touch before the 17-18 season. In 67 games for the Sixers however, he's shooting 33.9% on the same volume. It's not like he's drawing doubles on the perimeter, so what the hell is going on here?

I'll keep going...

- Mike Scott hit 40.0% for the Wizards and Clippers before arriving in Philly; since then he's down to 37.0%.
- Horford averaged 37.1% for the Hawks/Celtics after adding the 3pt dimension to his game in 15-16; he's shooting 34.0% so far for the Sixers.
- Richardson shot 36.8% throughout his career for Miami; he's averaging 34.1% in the City of Brotherly Love.

And that was our starting lineup tonight, besides Ben who can't hurt team 3pt% without actually taking any In theory Ben's inward gravity should open up the perimeter for his teammates (as should Embiid's when healthy). Instead, what I believe we're seeing are the fruits of a poorly designed and/or poorly implemented scheme. If true that falls on Brown.

I see you note the players who have regressed but what about the players who have improved their shooting???

Furkan went from low 30% to leading the team at 39%
Thybulle shot 30% his last year in college to shooting in the mid 40’s
Trey Burke shooting a career best from 3 in the mid 40’s

That’s just off the top of my head. As much as you want it to be the coach it isn’t it’s clearly the players and the flawed roster. Give brett a break he’s a very decent coach.

That's not what I did at all. Furkan and Thybulle have played for no other coaches beside Brett Brown so that wouldn't make sense. Burke has made 16 3's in total, which isn't close to significant.

What I did was reference all the players who started tonight, who are also our highest volume 3pt shooters (apart from Furkan/Embiid who have only played under BB). I'm not a cherry picker and I take offense to the accusation.

Why does them only having Brett as their coach dismiss my argument? They improved regardless of the coach and it’s not like Brett has coached them their whole entire lives. They improved under Brett Brown idc if he was their only coach at the nba level.

And how about my other point you didn’t address? How Brett lead a rookie Ben and 2nd year Joel to 52 wins and how they finished the season on a 17 game win streak (franchise record) with Joel missing more than half those games. It seems you aren’t looking at the entire picture just cherry picking.

[GeorgeMarcus]

I see you note the players who have regressed but what about the players who have improved their shooting???

Furkan went from low 30% to leading the team at 39%
Thybulle shot 30% his last year in college to shooting in the mid 40’s
Trey Burke shooting a career best from 3 in the mid 40’s

That’s just off the top of my head. As much as you want it to be the coach it isn’t it’s clearly the players and the flawed roster. Give brett a break he’s a very decent coach.

That's not what I did at all. Furkan and Thybulle have played for no other coaches beside Brett Brown so that wouldn't make sense. Burke has made 16 3's in total, which isn't close to significant.

What I did was reference all the players who started tonight, who are also our highest volume 3pt shooters (apart from Furkan/Embiid who have only played under BB). I'm not a cherry picker and I take offense to the accusation.

Ok how about my other point? How Brett lead a rookie Ben and 2nd year Joel to 52 wins and how they finished the season on a 17 game win streak with Joel missing more than half those games. It seems you aren’t looking at the entire picture just cherry picking.

The other point doesn't offer a basis for comparison because we don't know what they would have looked like without Brett Brown. The way I see it, Embiid is just that good. Even with the win streak we were significantly better with Joel than without him that season (as has always been the case). 41-22 with him vs 11-8 without him against much easier competition.

[kenwood3333]

Problem with the Sixers is not talent, its something else going on in that locker room, possibly ego.

[dans1230]

As a Celtics fan, When Simmons is aggressive and taking it to the hole with a purpose I get nervous. When Al and Embiid are shooting 3's I know we have a shot. The last game they beat the Celtics, Richardson lit us up, I can live with that. They have a lot of talent, but a tough mix of talent that will take a great coach with a ton of respect to sort out. With this becoming the ultimate players league, there aren't many of those around anymore. Phil Jackson, Pat Riley, Chuck Daley, and to a lesser degree Doc Rivers are becoming a thing of the past. Its going to be on the players to make this work.

[Wilfried]

If they could get a Derrick Rose (should be their prime target imo), they should be much better in a instant

[ITYSL]

Also, since you are a big impact stats guy, how do you account for Embiid's significant drop in those stats this season?

On/off: +10.4 to +6.2
RAPM: 4.11 to 1.74
ORAPM: 2.41 to -0.17
DRAPM (improved): 1.7 to 1.91
RPM: 6.4 to 2.73
ORPM: 2.68 to -0.08
DRPM 3.72 to 2.8
PIPM: 6.62 to 3.88
OPIPM: 3.35 to 1.32
DPIPM: 3.27 to 2.55

I think a lot of it is his frustration at the offensive end of the floor in terms of being forced out of the paint to make room for Simmons. Taking too many 3s and longish 2s. At the same time, he doesn't seem willing to bang in the low post all game either. Too often I don't think he fights for position in the low post hard enough before he gets the ball. So if he goes up against someone who is physical with him, the entry pass to him is often too far away from the basket and he ends up settling too much for passes back out or weak jumpers. When he does try to back down his defender, he's too far away, the double comes, and he gets flustered.

All that said, I do think you have a point about Brown, but for me it's about him appeasing his players too much. They take nights off, they often play down to their competition. On the other side, they have shown the ability to up the intensity, and they do have a winning record against winning teams, and have had a difficult schedule to start. I'm not sure you want to ditch him in the middle of the season, but if the Sixers have another 2nd round exit, I wouldn't be surprised to see him go.

[Chanel Bomber]

There are issues bigger than coaching.

Elton Brand has assembled a roster that doesn't fit, that lacks shooting and that's far too frontcourt heavy to seriously compete in today's NBA. He has irresponsibly wasted assets and now the well is dry with very little to show for it.

Embiid and Simmons can't play together. They both need to get to rim to score (at least efficiently so) so they will keep running into each other or making each other worse. Plus, Sixers fans might downplay it until one gets traded but the dynamic between the two is clearly awkward at best. The Sixers need to move Ben.

These are fundamental problems. A coaching change can fix neither of those things.

[Hussien Fatal]

That's not what I did at all. Furkan and Thybulle have played for no other coaches beside Brett Brown so that wouldn't make sense. Burke has made 16 3's in total, which isn't close to significant.

What I did was reference all the players who started tonight, who are also our highest volume 3pt shooters (apart from Furkan/Embiid who have only played under BB). I'm not a cherry picker and I take offense to the accusation.

Ok how about my other point? How Brett lead a rookie Ben and 2nd year Joel to 52 wins and how they finished the season on a 17 game win streak with Joel missing more than half those games. It seems you aren’t looking at the entire picture just cherry picking.

The other point doesn't offer a basis for comparison because we don't know what they would have looked like without Brett Brown. The way I see it, Embiid is just that good. Even with the win streak we were significantly better with Joel than without him that season (as has always been the case). 41-22 with him vs 11-8 without him against much easier competition.

There is no question the sixers are better with Joel they just are. And without him there are a bunch of ill fitting parts that don’t mesh. Tobias is the sixers best scorer with Joel out and tbh he’s just not good enough to rely on to carry an offensive load. Ben is very inconsistent and refuses to space the floor and al is over the hump. Josh has been the sixers best player with Joel out and we saw in Miami that he isn’t good enough to place a team above 500. They are a 40 win team without Joel and I don’t think it would matter the coach. Brett is a good coach who has a team that doesn’t mix. The bench isn’t anything special either. Ben has returned the same player each of the last two years and it isn’t Brett’s fault Ben is more worried about the life style and the money then taking the lumps and improving. He kinda sucks. Brett has told him to shoot and previous coaches have told him to bend his knees at the line and he refuses, the kid seems uncoachable. And as the teams second best player that’s a lot to overcome.

[ITYSL]

There are issues bigger than coaching.

Elton Brand has assembled a roster that doesn't fit, that lacks shooting and that's far too frontcourt heavy to seriously compete in today's NBA. He has irresponsibly wasted assets and now the well is dry with very little to show for it.

Embiid and Simmons can't play together. They both need to get to rim to score (at least efficiently so) so they will keep running into each other or making each other worse. Plus, Sixers fans might downplay it until one gets traded but the dynamic between the two is clearly awkward at best. The Sixers need to move Ben.

These are fundamental problems. A coaching change can fix neither of those things.

I disagree, I think you can have a successful team with Simmons, Embiid, and then other players that can create their own shot from the perimeter and/or are decent outside spot-up shooting threats.

[Hussien Fatal]

There are issues bigger than coaching.

Elton Brand has assembled a roster that doesn't fit, that lacks shooting and that's far too frontcourt heavy to seriously compete in today's NBA. He has irresponsibly wasted assets and now the well is dry with very little to show for it.

Embiid and Simmons can't play together. They both need to get to rim to score (at least efficiently so) so they will keep running into each other or making each other worse. Plus, Sixers fans might downplay it until one gets traded but the dynamic between the two is clearly awkward at best. The Sixers need to move Ben.

These are fundamental problems. A coaching change can fix neither of those things.

I disagree I think Joel and Ben can co exist just not at the moment and it’s all on Ben. Until he realizes he has to shoot they will never reach their full potential. But if he does open up to shooting they can work well together. It’s all on Ben.

[PennSports]

Joel And Ben can co-exist. They just got rid of the guys like JJ/Covington/Butler/Shamet that are good fits for them to sign another Center.

The sixers need volume shooting and shot creation. Nobody is getting traded before a coaching change either, it might not matter but you have to try and make it work. Too bad Brand and Colangelo pissed away all our money, picks, and good prospects to put together this hell hole of a team. I watched 75 games when they won only 10, that team was more fun to follow than this group. They had enough to survive a few mistakes but that time is long gone none. We will see how desperate they are at the trade deadline, goodbye Matisse... Tell Shamet i still love him.

[GeorgeMarcus]

Give the keys to Joerger or SVG and see what happens. Nothing to lose.

I would be on board with either, but especially Joerger.

[NoDopeOnSundays]

Joel And Ben can co-exist. They just got rid of the guys like JJ/Covington/Butler/Shamet that are good fits for them to sign another Center.

The sixers need volume shooting and shot creation. Nobody is getting traded before a coaching change either, it might not matter but you have to try and make it work. Too bad Brand and Colangelo pissed away all our money, picks, and good prospects to put together this hell hole of a team. I watched 75 games when they won only 10, that team was more fun to follow than this group. They had enough to survive a few mistakes but that time is long gone none. We will see how desperate they are at the trade deadline, goodbye Matisse... Tell Shamet i still love him.

They didn't have enough shot creation with JJ & Covington because Simmons is a complete non factor in close games down the stretch, and Simmons didn't like playing off the ball as much with Butler. Really, the issue is Simmons insistence on being viewed as a PG, and the fact the front office built around him that way. They could have gone after Brogdon, Kemba or Russell in the offseason but didn't because they already have their "PG". Just think of how good the Sixers would look if Ben were actually at his correct position of PF, with Kemba, Brogdon or Russell on the ball, and spacing the floor when they're off the ball which is something Jimmy doesn't do.

Building around Simmons ego and misguided belief that he's a PG is why they're where they are, he and Embiid could work if they had a real PG and 2 floor spacers out there with them, as long as the PG can shoot when he's off the ball.

[nedleeds]

Their shooting has been abysmal away from home

Today was 18% from 3

Brett Brown normally starts 3 centers, a power forward and a shooting guard what the **** do you Sixer's fans expect.

[GeorgeMarcus]

Also, since you are a big impact stats guy, how do you account for Embiid's significant drop in those stats this season?

On/off: +10.4 to +6.2
RAPM: 4.11 to 1.74
ORAPM: 2.41 to -0.17
DRAPM (improved): 1.7 to 1.91
RPM: 6.4 to 2.73
ORPM: 2.68 to -0.08
DRPM 3.72 to 2.8
PIPM: 6.62 to 3.88
OPIPM: 3.35 to 1.32
DPIPM: 3.27 to 2.55

I think a lot of it is his frustration at the offensive end of the floor in terms of being forced out of the paint to make room for Simmons. Taking too many 3s and longish 2s. At the same time, he doesn't seem willing to bang in the low post all game either. Too often I don't think he fights for position in the low post hard enough before he gets the ball. So if he goes up against someone who is physical with him, the entry pass to him is often too far away from the basket and he ends up settling too much for passes back out or weak jumpers. When he does try to back down his defender, he's too far away, the double comes, and he gets flustered.

All that said, I do think you have a point about Brown, but for me it's about him appeasing his players too much. They take nights off, they often play down to their competition. On the other side, they have shown the ability to up the intensity, and they do have a winning record against winning teams, and have had a difficult schedule to start. I'm not sure you want to ditch him in the middle of the season, but if the Sixers have another 2nd round exit, I wouldn't be surprised to see him go.

The on/off is the most obvious explanation: Horford is playing C during his off minutes rather than the scrub backups we've had in the past. Generally Brown correlates Simmons/Tobias/Horford together and Embiid/Richardson together, so he's penalized by the rotation a bit.

Regarding RAPM/RPM, I think it's a few things. 1 would be sample size because he was first among Cs/top 10 in the league just last week. We should start to notice more stability in a month or so. 2 his offensive skillset is less meaningful within the current roster build. Simmons needed to add the 3pt (or at least mid range) dimension to his game for our offseason to make sense, and unfortunately that hasn't happened. Sometimes Embiid is being forced out of his comfort zone, and other times he's forcing other players out of their comfort zones. Both instances occur with more regularity now. 3 he loved running the dribble handoff with JJ, so he's probably still adjusting to that not being an option.

PIPM is better than some of the other advanced metrics I've scolded, but still not something I put stock in really. I would guess the reasons are loosely related to the reasons described above, but I would need a refresher course on how it's calculated.

[GeorgeMarcus]

New season, same old story... 21-10 (56-win pace) with Embiid and 4-6 (33-win pace) without Embiid. I could use this as more material to prop up my lord and savior, but I'm gonna take a different route this time: Brett Brown has got to go.

If Scott freaking Brooks can trot out the G League Wizards and look competitive, there should be no reason Brown can't salvage mediocrity (at a minimum) with Simmons/J Rich/Tobias/Horford. This isn't a new phenomenon or reactionary take. It was the same story last year going 8-10 with Simmons/Redick/Butler/Tobias.

Even when Embiid plays, we're consistently awful out of timeouts and have no sense of structure within the offense. How can we not blame the coach knowing all that we know? I like the guy- I really do- but enough is enough. He had to know his ass was on the line when the Sixers committed to win-now mode. My only worry is that his rapport with the FO will cloud their judgement and prevent them from making the right decision.

To answer the question that will inevitably arise: yes, I'm willing to gamble on an unproven coach in the event of a Brown firing. I get that it's slim pickens right now when it comes to known commodities, but it's better to take a risk on someone new than cling to a losing formula.

no leadership on the floor. whatever was the problem with butler, clearly he never felt minnie or philly were "his kind of team", and he's the kind of leader you need.
your best player goofs off on social media too much
your second best player is, according to the pundits, a bad fit for your best player and doesn't work on what needs to be worked on. to wit: he seemingly refuses to even TRY shooting a 3 as if he wants to PO his coach.

and behind them you have one good vet who i don't know what's going on(didn't i read that he didn't like his "role" on the team), a vagabond vet who reached his ceiling a year ago, and a bunch of dudes who are too young to know anything.

i think philly, and everyone really, has fallen in love with embiid/simmons and allowances are being concocted for them. the team seems uncommitted. what's going on in philly is going on everywhere. there's no solid foundation in the nba, but that's what you get when you have a heavy HEAVY reliances on young fresh teenage blood to save your org. that the league relies so much on luka, ja, and zion to save the league for the next generation is a problem in and of itself.

all that being said and i got that off my chest,,,there are other young teams that don't have the problem philly has, so maybe it IS a bad staff. maybe it's this shaky "process" everyone keeps talking about - "trust the process"....DUDE, trust the process meant tanking for consecutive years so that philly could luck into embiid and simmons. that is not a plan, that was an act of desperation by a bad FO.

That wasn't the issue with Butler; he was pissed because we didn't offer the full max (directly after giving it to Simmons). He felt insulted/unappreciated. Butler actually held Embiid in high esteem. In terms of being a leader, he Joel has the drive to win and is always supportive of his teammates. Sometimes he lets emotions disrupt his own rhythm on the court, but not in a way that causes friction with the other guys.

Simmons' reluctance to shoot is a legitimate problem though, for sure. The fact that Brown can't inspire or coerce Ben into changing his mindset is another red flag for me.

[Chandan]

The chances the Sixers make some drastic in season move are almost nil.

Now, if they go out in the 2nd round again...

I'm pretty sure they will not make a lot of changes either this season. One of the things that kept them out of the CF last season was the lack of continuity.

If they can fight through their struggles, they could become dangerous.

Also, even if they finish 4th or 5th, I still feel that in the play-offs (and with a healthy Joel), none of the other EC-teams match up against them.

Not Milwaukee, not Boston (3-0 for Philly this season). Not Toronto or Miami because they lack the star power.
Maybe Indiana? Maybe.

they've been dangerous for about 2 seasons now. At some point you either have to become a favourite or you make a change (especially when your assets are still valuable)