Question for people who watched Jordan play

[ciueli]

The interesting thing is that (ignoring the 3 seasons the 3 point line was closer) Jordan actually shot decent a decent percentage from 3 point range on a reasonable number of attempts two seasons in his career, 1989-1990 (37.6%, 3.0 attempts per game) and 1992-1993 (35.2%, 2.9 attempts per game). The first season he played a full 82 game season and the second he played 78 games, so these aren't really small sample sizes or anything.

Looking at some more modern players, LeBron James has shot 35% or better on 3+ attempts only 6 out of 17 seasons in his career, Kobe did it three times, and Dwyane Wade has done it 0 times.

[Myth]

If Jordan played in this era, I suspect he would not be a volume 3 point shooter like Harden/Curry (who each shoot over half of their shots from beyond the 3), but shot them more at the rate Kawhi does (25%). Kawhi shoots just over 5 threes per game out of 20 field goal attempts. Jordan frequently shot about 24 shots per game in his prime, so I think he would have shot 6 of those as 3s if he played in this era.

[bb22]

Jordan would be elite in anything he zoned in on. Im certain that if he took more 3s, his 3pt% would increase too.
Watching MJ highlights, we often overlook how much energy he used for each bucket. I think that, nowadays, guys love to work on their 3pt shot because it requires way less energy. Just think about how tempting it is to shoot the deep jumper when your tired vs going to work in the paint/midrange.

[Galloisdaman]

Teams 1st, 2nd, and 3rd game plans revolved around stopping Jordan.

Great 3 point shooters like Glen Rice and Reggie Miller would make around 150 a year. What is that? 2 a game?

[Golden Knight]

Jordan was born in 1963. The NBA adopted the 3 point in 79-80. FIBA adopted it in 1984. The NCAA in the 80's. ABA in the late 60's.

Players born in the 60's grew up not practicing the 3 pointer.

If Jordan was born in the 90's, 2000's, he'd shoot a LOT better and a lot more from 3 considering his above average FT%...

[FlopmastrGenral]

As competitive as Jordan was, if he was playing today, he would be at least league average from three, I suspect.

During most of his career, the 3-point shooters were often limited scorers, more specialists

[KuruptedCav]

I watched him play from '91 forward myself, but I'm looking for the opinions of others, especially if you watched him play a ton.

I've always been a little puzzled by MJ's relatively low career 3P% - .327 for his career. He was obviously a great shooter. He shot 84% from the line for his career and is commonly called the GoAT in the midrange. It's weird to me that LeBron James has a better career 3P% (currently .344). LeBron shoots 10 percentage points lower at the free throw line and, on balance for his career, clearly has inferior form/balance/touch relative to MJ. MJ and LBJ actually have the exact same 3P% in the post season = .332. LeBron's attempts went down a little in the post season and Jordan's went up a lot.

So, today I was watching the YouTube video MICHAEL JORDAN: THE LEGEND OF THE GREATEST for the first time, and it struck me how often Jordan made three-point buzzer beaters to end quarters, halves, and games. It got me thinking: what percentage of his shots would have been of this variety? He played in an era when players didn't think about preserving their 3P% like they do these days. And Michael would have been the one to take the last shot more often than not when he was on the floor, which would have been more often than not, as he averaged over 38 minutes per game for his career.

Then I started thinking about total attempts. Jordan only took 1,778 attempts in the regular season for his entire career. He averaged 1.7 attempts per game. James Harden is shooting over 1,000 attempts per season last year and this year. When you space MJ's 1,778 attempts out over 1,072 career regular season games, you really start to think that a bunch of those attempts may have been buzzer-beaters and full-court/half-court shots.

It's obvious to anyone who watched him that MJ would likely have been a very high level three-point shooter if he'd played in an era when it was considered an essential fundamental rather than a niche skill that was mostly reserved for unathletic guards. But my question isn't about that. It's about how good he actually was even in his own time: what percentage do you think MJ shot from three if you take out his buzzer beaters and half/full court shots? What do you think his percentage was minus these shots? If anyone knows of any studies done on this, please let me know. I did some calculations based purely on conjecture, and I think the effects on his percentage may have been pretty extreme.

EDIT: My original totally blind and baseless estimate was that MJ shot one every three games. That's once every 12 quarters, plus the end of shot clocks in between. It seemed reasonable. That would be about 26 per season. Then I assumed that MJ shot 20% on those shots, an extremely high percentage for heaves and desperation shots. (A higher theoretical % on those shots is actually worse for MJ in this case, because it takes away more of the 3's he made.) Then I took out one 3PA every 3 games and also did the calculation to remove the appropriate number of makes. What I found was that, based on those calculations, MJ's career 3P% would jump from .327 to .377. It's possible - probable, really - that I overshot, as I was just poking in the dark. But even if the actual numbers were once every six games instead of once every three, my result shows the extreme effect these shots could have on the percentage of a player taking as few three's as Jordan took. It kind of goes to show the reason why no one shoots those shots anymore - as much as I hate it.

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Separate musing for those who weren't around to watch Jordan play:

James Harden is 30 years old and at his absolute peak. Imagine if he retired at the end of this season to play professional baseball and didn't come back until March 18th, 2022.... Only, instead of winning the last three scoring titles and having won one MVP and no rings, he'd won the last seven scoring titles, three MVP Awards, a DPoY, and the 2018, 2019, and 2020 Finals MVP's.
I think it's still underappreciated how absolutely bonkers it is that Jordan just up and left when he was at the peak of his basketball ability - twice. Jordan had just turned 30 when he retired the first time. He spent two years of his peak playing baseball.
LeBron this season is basically the same age that Jordan was when he retired the second time (1998). How insanely weird would it be if LeBron had retired in 2015, sat out all of 2016 and almost all of 2017 to play a different sport, then came back for 2018, 2019, and 2020, then won the MVP and the Finals MVP this season, then retired at the end of this season, and then came back three years later to play the 2024 and 2025 seasons? Utterly bizarre, right?
I have no dog in the three paragraphs above. You can do with them what you will. My point was simply to point out how totally strange Jordan's career was and how completely strange it would be if anyone else followed a similar path today.

Jordan is a byproduct of incredible marketing pared with incredible skill and a lot of luck.

He missed a lot of big shots, he gambled his way out of the league, and he built an empire and the resume of the GOAT. He was the ultimate competitor.

That’s what separates the generations. It’s harder to stay hungry when you have a 9 figure bank account.


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[scrabbarista]

To follow up, I think looking for a way to remove the heaves is a little misleading. You'd have to remove everyone else's heaves as well but also it misses that many seasons he really wasn't looking for those shots. It deals with too many hypotheticals.

Generally, I think a better tack is to look at seasons where he was shooting more threes. I.e. where the 3 ball was an intentional part of his attack. 89-90 and 92-93 are probably the most representative of a baseline that he could have built on. 37.6% and 35.2% respectively. In both seasons he averaged around 3 takes per game. Also, looking at it this way, you can exclude the seasons where the line was moved in and everyone was taking/making more 3s.

Jordan shot around 36% when he committed to it in those days and likely higher if he adjusted his training to current trends.

I mostly agree with everything here. Still, he was very likely taking more buzzer-beaters, shot clock beaters, and heaves than anyone in the league. He had the highest usage in the league most seasons, would always be the first option on those plays, and played over 3,000 minutes most seasons. Those facts combined with his very low number of 3PA's should tell you that his percentage may have been extremely affected by such shots. Also, I was asking for MJ's percentage without those shots because it would give some perspective versus current players who avoid those shots like the plague and still shoot way more three's than Jordan ever did. So the effect on current players would presumably be negligible, whereas in his case it may have been extreme.

Also, how fascinating is it that one of those seasons he shot 37.6% and the number I came up with just calculating from my own recollection of how often he may have shot such shots was .377?

[scrabbarista]

I think the OP makes a great point. It would be interesting if an accurate analysis of 3P% were possible that excluded "last second" heaves and your thought experiment to infer a .377 3P% seems helpful. But the unknown will always be what would happen if Jordan had focused on the three point shot in his practice and mind set. The idea of multiple 40ppg seasons does seem realistic. Amazing!

Thanks. Totally fascinating that the year Jordan took by far his most attempts (excluding when the line was moved in), he shot .376. I wasn't even aware of this when I did my experiment. It did feel like a number that matched my eye test, though. Some kind of coincidence, don't you think?

[BarneyGumble]

The three point shot was not emphasized in his era. He was not a terrific three-point shooter. His strength was beating people off the dribble and finishing strong, and as he aged he perfected the mid range fade away game. He could shoot the three, and proved it in the NBA finals against Clyde Drexler. The deal with him was he was just clutch. Relentless competitor.

[GregOden]

I believe Jordan's shooting was affected by him having to bulk up in the 90s, as also can be seen by his declining FT%. When he was still lean in the late 80s didn't he shoot 38% on his highest volume year?

[jehosafats]

The 3pt was more of a specialist thing back then. It was frowned on for most of the 80's, it was seen as a bit of a b-move...for a role player. Not really what skilled star players did.

That wasn't necessarily the case in the 90's. Too many inside-outside players to name, many of them star players.

[Sultanofatl]

Jordan shot the old school three 2 + the harm. He was a rhythm shooter. When he got going he shot the 3 effortlessly. But, he wasn't a shooter. He sought contact.

MJ's shot was cash. Curious what your definition of shooter is (assuming 3pt specialist type)?

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From that era? Dell Curry, Craig Hodges, Reggie Miller, Chris Mullins, Bird etc. Guys who can catch and shoot. Jordan took rhythm dribbles etc

[scrabbarista]

Jordan shot the old school three 2 + the harm. He was a rhythm shooter. When he got going he shot the 3 effortlessly. But, he wasn't a shooter. He sought contact.

MJ's shot was cash. Curious what your definition of shooter is (assuming 3pt specialist type)?

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From that era? Dell Curry, Craig Hodges, Reggie Miller, Chris Mullin, Bird etc. Guys who can catch and shoot. Jordan took rhythm dribbles etc

Another guy who needs to do his homework!

Watch on YouTube

When you have Jordan's elevation, hang time, and balance, (and big hands) you don't need extra rhythm to shoot. You catch your rhythm in the air. All shooters, including catch-and-shooters, prefer to shoot "in rhythm." Jordan could just as easily shoot off the catch as off the dribble. He just happened to have the ball in his hands a lot, because why wouldn't he?

Everyone who has moves does "rhythm dribbles." That's what moves are. Are "rhythm dribbles" really just to get into a rhythm, or are they to create the threat of the drive, to get the defender off balance, and/or to create space for a shot? Depends on your perspective. Just because guys like Kyrie and Harden like to get into a rhythm doesn't mean they don't know how to stand still and shoot a jumper off the catch. Jordan, on the other hand, because of his athleticism, could get the same jumper off the dribble, in the post, standing still off the catch, or running/fading off the catch. It didn't make any difference for him.

To be clear, I'm not saying he was the level of shooter some of those guys were (not close to Miller or Bird, in particular). He was a "shooter," in my opinion, except that it wouldn't make sense to call him that because he was so much more. So maybe it's a question of semantics. But he most definitely could catch and shoot just fine.

[Not Suave Rico]

To be clear, I'm not saying he was the level of shooter some of those guys were (not close to Miller or Bird, in particular).

Funny you bring up Bird. He had pretty awful 3P% early in his career.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/b/birdla01.html

[scrabbarista]

To be clear, I'm not saying he was the level of shooter some of those guys were (not close to Miller or Bird, in particular).

Funny you bring up Bird. He had pretty awful 3P% early in his career.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/b/birdla01.html

Interesting, but obviously at least partly flukish due to the novelty of the shot. He was taking 1.1 per game and shooting under 31% in his first five seasons after entering the league in the very first season of the line's existence. As with Jordan, we have to wonder how many of those 1.1 shots were heaves and buzzer shots. It could have been as many as one out of every three or four of his attempts. When a team's lead scorer was only taking 1 per game in an era when players didn't avoid heaves and buzzer shots for their %, you have to at least do a little mental math to get a clearer picture of what was really going on.

Then the next four seasons he ups his attempts to 2.5 per game and shoots over 41%. You make an interesting point, though. Bird's FT% also went from under 86% in his first five seasons to over 90% in his next four seasons, which corresponded exactly with his massive jump in 3P%. He goes from 25% in '84 to 43% in '85 while raising his attempts, and then stays above 40% in each of the next three seasons after '85. Again similar to MJ, we have to assume that if Bird had grown up familiar with the three point line, his career percentage would have been much, much higher. I remember hearing or reading - I can't remember which - some time in the 90's that in the 80's Bird wouldn't leave the arena after a game until he'd made 30 straight three's. One miss and he'd start over. I guess the numbers in this comment are pretty clear evidence of the fruits of that labor.

[The4thHorseman]

Make sure to remove the 94-95, 95-96, 96-97 seasons from his data. The 3 point line was 2 feet closer for those seasons.

I'd argue that if you haven't done that then your argument is boned. They were MJs best 3 shooting seasons (besides his random 89-90 year)

Not sure if true or not, but I remember reading a while back that if you take away the 3yrs of the shortened 3pt line, MJ's a career 28% shooter beyond the arc.

[iggymcfrack]

Steph Curry gets as many heaves up as anyone ever and he’s taken 77 over 698 games. Once every 3 games for
Jordan is an absolutely ridiculous estimate. FWIW Curry made 5%. Re-run these numbers with something like 1 shot every 15 games for Jordan at 5% and you’ll probably get a much better number. I’d imagine it’s a very small effect.

[Hornet Mania]

It's totally impossible to extrapolate what the 3pt shooting ability of retired players would be if they played in the present. It's fun to imagine but it's ultimately unknowable.

In the 70s/80s (early to mid-80s especially) a lot of coaches at all levels would bench a guy if he took a wide-open 3 rather than making the 'smart play' of dribbling once for a slightly closer long 2. No one, not even prolific shooters like Larry Bird or Reggie Miller, was spending the amount of time Curry/Harden/Lebron and other modern players do improving their long ball.

It was not just a matter of skills gap, there is a psychological element as well. The 3 for the vast majority of Jordan's career was considered by the experts and coaches as either a gimmick shot, a bad shot, or a desperation shot to win the game at the end. In 2020 the 3 is a not only considered a 'good shot' but in fact the best shot aside from a dunk. I'd argue this probably even had an effect at the subconscious level. In the past players would subconsciously understand that the 3pt shot needed to be used sparingly lest coach get angry, that psychological weight is completely lifted in the modern era where most likely the coach is encouraging only 3s and dunks if possible. This complete reversal of common wisdom has effected the game more than anything else the last few years, and if that wisdom had changed a few decades earlier the entirety of NBA history would be different as would all the record books.

FWIW I think Jordan was a fine shooter and if I had to guess I'd say he could have at least reached above-average efficiency from deep due to work ethic and what evidence we have of his comparatively elite efficiency on long 2s.

[Sultanofatl]

MJ's shot was cash. Curious what your definition of shooter is (assuming 3pt specialist type)?

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From that era? Dell Curry, Craig Hodges, Reggie Miller, Chris Mullin, Bird etc. Guys who can catch and shoot. Jordan took rhythm dribbles etc

Another guy who needs to do his homework!

Watch on YouTube

When you have Jordan's elevation, hang time, and balance, (and big hands) you don't need extra rhythm to shoot. You catch your rhythm in the air. All shooters, including catch-and-shooters, prefer to shoot "in rhythm." Jordan could just as easily shoot off the catch as off the dribble. He just happened to have the ball in his hands a lot, because why wouldn't he?

Everyone who has moves does "rhythm dribbles." That's what moves are. Are "rhythm dribbles" really just to get into a rhythm, or are they to create the threat of the drive, to get the defender off balance, and/or to create space for a shot? Depends on your perspective. Just because guys like Kyrie and Harden like to get into a rhythm doesn't mean they don't know how to stand still and shoot a jumper off the catch. Jordan, on the other hand, because of his athleticism, could get the same jumper off the dribble, in the post, standing still off the catch, or running/fading off the catch. It didn't make any difference for him.

To be clear, I'm not saying he was the level of shooter some of those guys were (not close to Miller or Bird, in particular). He was a "shooter," in my opinion, except that it wouldn't make sense to call him that because he was so much more. So maybe it's a question of semantics. But he most definitely could catch and shoot just fine.

My guy I grew up watching Jordan's whole career. Don't show me a highlight real. He wasn't a shooter in the purist sense. Would knock down shots yes. But, he scored off motion, slashing, isolation. If he was forced to live off spot up shooting he wouldn't have made it.