2019-20 OKC Thunder Regular Season Thread

[Dadouv47]

https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/28482160/ten-nba-things-like-including-luka-doncic-dwight-powell-dance

Spoiler:

The notorious S.G.A. is already one of the league's shiftiest ball handlers -- a long-limbed, change-of-pace phantom who seems to move at two or three different speeds at once. Guarding him is like trying to catch a fish with your bare hands.

He also is a premier bank shot artist, smooching from unconventional angles:

That is a little close to the baseline for most players to go glass. Gilgeous-Alexander has the touch to pull it off. That one hits pretty low on the backboard, but Gilgeous-Alexander will kiss the ball off the tippy-top if need be.

The straight-on banker is underused -- a tricky work of depth perception that can increase your margin for error on harried floaters. Gilgeous-Alexander has it in his bag:

Only 10 players have attempted more glassers than Gilgeous-Alexander, per Second Spectrum. (Russell Westbrook has tried by far the most -- almost double the No. 2 guy.) Coming off a ridiculous 20-20-10 game, Gilgeous-Alexander has a fringe All-Star case: 20 points, six rebounds and three assists per game, decent shooting, solid defense.

It is a hard case to parse. Each member of Oklahoma City's three-headed point guard monster has sacrificed something. Gilgeous-Alexander has stepped back into a secondary ballhandling role behind Chris Paul (probably a better All-Star candidate) and Dennis Schroder (in the running for Sixth Man of the Year). Gilgeous-Alexander has logged only 40 minutes as solo floor general -- without either Schroder or Paul.

I recently debated with a few non-Thunder executives whether Gilgeous-Alexander would grow into an All-NBA player. That they framed the question in those terms -- and not around whether Gilgeous-Alexander will make All-Star teams -- is indicative of how good he has been.

I'm so excited about SGA and optimistic about his future but don't want to overreact right now. He has everything to become a multiple All star player (potentially a top 5 or top 10 player in the league when he peaks) but he still has a lot to learn before that.

Feels like we are putting all our future on SGA's shoulders (that's why it sucks to have only one good young player right now). Can't blame Presti though because I know it's really difficult to trade for other good prospects.

[ThunderBolt]

https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/28482160/ten-nba-things-like-including-luka-doncic-dwight-powell-dance

Spoiler:

The notorious S.G.A. is already one of the league's shiftiest ball handlers -- a long-limbed, change-of-pace phantom who seems to move at two or three different speeds at once. Guarding him is like trying to catch a fish with your bare hands.

He also is a premier bank shot artist, smooching from unconventional angles:

That is a little close to the baseline for most players to go glass. Gilgeous-Alexander has the touch to pull it off. That one hits pretty low on the backboard, but Gilgeous-Alexander will kiss the ball off the tippy-top if need be.

The straight-on banker is underused -- a tricky work of depth perception that can increase your margin for error on harried floaters. Gilgeous-Alexander has it in his bag:

Only 10 players have attempted more glassers than Gilgeous-Alexander, per Second Spectrum. (Russell Westbrook has tried by far the most -- almost double the No. 2 guy.) Coming off a ridiculous 20-20-10 game, Gilgeous-Alexander has a fringe All-Star case: 20 points, six rebounds and three assists per game, decent shooting, solid defense.

It is a hard case to parse. Each member of Oklahoma City's three-headed point guard monster has sacrificed something. Gilgeous-Alexander has stepped back into a secondary ballhandling role behind Chris Paul (probably a better All-Star candidate) and Dennis Schroder (in the running for Sixth Man of the Year). Gilgeous-Alexander has logged only 40 minutes as solo floor general -- without either Schroder or Paul.

I recently debated with a few non-Thunder executives whether Gilgeous-Alexander would grow into an All-NBA player. That they framed the question in those terms -- and not around whether Gilgeous-Alexander will make All-Star teams -- is indicative of how good he has been.

I'm so excited about SGA and optimistic about his future but don't want to overreact right now. He has everything to become a multiple All star player (potentially a top 5 or top 10 player in the league when he peaks) but he still has a lot to learn before that.

Feels like we are putting all our future on SGA's shoulders (that's why it sucks to have only one good young player right now). Can't blame Presti though because I know it's really difficult to trade for other good prospects.

Players and GMs become dissatisfied faster than ever. I think Presti is just waiting for the right opportunity to come along and then he'll take advantage. Whether that means we move up in the draft or taking advantage of a poorly manged remains to be seen.

[Dadouv47]

https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/28482160/ten-nba-things-like-including-luka-doncic-dwight-powell-dance

Spoiler:

I'm so excited about SGA and optimistic about his future but don't want to overreact right now. He has everything to become a multiple All star player (potentially a top 5 or top 10 player in the league when he peaks) but he still has a lot to learn before that.

Feels like we are putting all our future on SGA's shoulders (that's why it sucks to have only one good young player right now). Can't blame Presti though because I know it's really difficult to trade for other good prospects.

Players and GMs become dissatisfied faster than ever. I think Presti is just waiting for the right opportunity to come along and then he'll take advantage. Whether that means we move up in the draft or taking advantage of a poorly manged remains to be seen.

Hope so. We can't wait too long though. If those guys are young and not playing well, we will need some time to develop them as well. Guess we have a 2 years window of finding the right opportunity to get some good young prospects.

Can't really find a team that is about to give up on some good prospects. The Lakers sold almost all their young last 2-3 seasons (desperate moves/bad management/opportunity to get AD). Maybe the Knicks next year but don't like their young guys so far.

Other ''big'' markets like Chicago, Miami usually don't trade their prospects for crap.

[Pillendreher]

Falling all the way to 30th in ORB% after leading the league in five straight years or so must be quite unheard of.

[slick_watts]

the split can't be real. the thunder starters are -4.7pp100, which is the third worst lineup in the nba with over 200 minutes played. only the knicks and cavs starters are worse. they are allowing 119.4pp100, which is the worst defense of any lineup in the nba with over 100 minutes played.

take out ferguson and put schroder in, and suddenly the thunder have the best lineup in the nba, a 35pp100 swing, most of that swing on defense.

it is a bizarre split, and i think begs the question: how much are the starters underperforming and how much is the schroder starters overperforming. thunder should start schroder for ferguson for awhile to see what happens.

To be fair bizarre stuff like this isn't new. Remember last season when the starting lineup was playing defense at an historic level and then proceeded to turn into a complete pumpkin on that end for the rest of the season? Didn't make sense either.

the whole team was, they were a top 10 defense of all time through early january. but you could see the outlier turnover numbers and figure out that was likely to change.

for the current schroder / ferguson splits, it's opponent shooting which appears to be fluke-y. both field goal shooting and free throw shooting. the pendulum might be starting to swing the other way. might be time to sell high on some players.

[slick_watts]

Falling all the way to 30th in ORB% after leading the league in five straight years or so must be quite unheard of.

the 90's nets were always leading the league or close to it in the 90's, and when jayson williams left and byron scott took over in 2001 they fell to 25th.

i'm not sure a 1st to last situation exists but i wouldn't be surprised. ORB can be greatly influenced by a player or two and roster turnover can cause spikes. it is sort of nuts how we downgraded basically everywhere on ORB. every player who left was replaced by someone who is worse at it. obviously russ to cp3 but also grant to gallinari and whoever was on our bench to muscala and george to shai.

i'm not big on ORB being a linchpin offensively so schematically it's probably a good idea to decouple from it in the long run and achieve success at other less volatile things.

[ThunderBolt]

Falling all the way to 30th in ORB% after leading the league in five straight years or so must be quite unheard of.

the 90's nets were always leading the league or close to it in the 90's, and when jayson williams left and byron scott took over in 2001 they fell to 25th.

i'm not sure a 1st to last situation exists but i wouldn't be surprised. ORB can be greatly influenced by a player or two and roster turnover can cause spikes. it is sort of nuts how we downgraded basically everywhere on ORB. every player who left was replaced by someone who is worse at it. obviously russ to cp3 but also grant to gallinari and whoever was on our bench to muscala and george to shai.

i'm not big on ORB being a linchpin offensively so schematically it's probably a good idea to decouple from it in the long run and achieve success at other less volatile things.

How much of this is a result of having Adams away from the basket and using him as a facilitator on offense? Are the benefits of having him get more assists really worth the trade off of not having him in a position to get an offensive rebound?

[Pillendreher]

Falling all the way to 30th in ORB% after leading the league in five straight years or so must be quite unheard of.

the 90's nets were always leading the league or close to it in the 90's, and when jayson williams left and byron scott took over in 2001 they fell to 25th.

i'm not sure a 1st to last situation exists but i wouldn't be surprised. ORB can be greatly influenced by a player or two and roster turnover can cause spikes. it is sort of nuts how we downgraded basically everywhere on ORB. every player who left was replaced by someone who is worse at it. obviously russ to cp3 but also grant to gallinari and whoever was on our bench to muscala and george to shai.

i'm not big on ORB being a linchpin offensively so schematically it's probably a good idea to decouple from it in the long run and achieve success at other less volatile things.

It's not just this season though. The Thunder were huge back in 15/16. They started becoming smaller everywhere after Durant left.

[CROklahoma]

The Bazely project is the most interesting one in recent Thunder future.
He is better defensive player than any I can remember (better than KD in his rookie season) in his 1st year, he already showed glimpses of knocking down shots, and if he finds his game around the rim, that whole combo will allow him to unlock his playmaking which he had in high school years.

What a great pick !

+ For Lu aswell, he is great addon, just hope Dilly gives him minutes, without the minutes he wont be able to work on his flaws.

[slick_watts]

The Bazely project is the most interesting one in recent Thunder future.
He is better defensive player than any I can remember (better than KD in his rookie season) in his 1st year, he already showed glimpses of knocking down shots, and if he finds his game around the rim, that whole combo will allow him to unlock his playmaking which he had in high school years.

What a great pick !

+ For Lu aswell, he is great addon, just hope Dilly gives him minutes, without the minutes he wont be able to work on his flaws.

bazley isn't in rookie andre roberson's zip code defensively. roberson as a rookie stepped in for thabo as a starter when thabo got hurt and the thunder defense got even better.

bazley has not been very productive so far, 19 years old or not.

[CROklahoma]

DWS stats say Bazely has better impact than Roberson, who shared court alongside Ibaka and others.
(19yr vs 22yr).

[slick_watts]

DWS stats say Bazely has better impact than Roberson, who shared court alongside Ibaka and others.
(19yr vs 22yr).

uh, aside from the fact that win shares don't distinguish who is on and off the court, this isn't true. DWS is cumulative. so bazley at 0.9 DWS in 747 minutes is worse than roberson 0.6 DWS in 399 minutes. but DWS sucks. it's basically bbr defensive rating (which sucks) extrapolated out.

[getrichordie]

Hey everyone, I'm back. I've kind of been on a hiatus. Feels like I've been away from the game forever. I've been keeping an eye on OKC but haven't really been able to pay attention like I'd like to.

How is everyone doing? How are you, bondom34? I miss our disagreements and I miss your saltiness

On a more serious note, what are everyone's views on our "major" guys such as Paul, Schroder, Adams, etc.

What is everyone's view on our bench?

I've kind of been feeling meh about Hami. I like what I'm seeing from Bazley but I don't know if it's enough to the point where I consider him untouchable in trade talks. Just depends on return. Don't see him being a franchise-altering player but I can definitely see him being the 4th best guy on a team. Nader seems to have turned into a more serviceable role player for us than last year.

Anyways... good to be back. Thought'd I'd check in since I haven't been here in quite some time. I've missed you guys.

[Old Man Game]

Dom left.

Sent from my Pixel using RealGM mobile app

[ThunderBolt]

Dom left.

Sent from my Pixel using RealGM mobile app

He lurks.

[ThunderBolt]

A couple of points from Horne's article today on the athletic-

Paul currently has a true shooting percentage of 60.6, an effective field goal percentage of 54.9 and a usage rate of 22.2. According to Basketball-Reference.com, only 15 players in NBA history have posted those numbers at age 33 or older over an entire season. Fifteen. Factor in Paul’s defense — the 34-year-old is often required to defend the other team’s No. 1 player in the Thunder’s devastating three-point-guard lineups — and Paul should be a shoo-in All-Star and, barring injury, on the shor

t list for All-NBA.

Two-man lineup (year) — Minutes — Net Rating
Paul/Schröder (2019-20) — 681 — 16.2
SGA/Schröder (2019-20) — 810 — 9.5
George/Schröder (2018-19) — 868 — 9.1
Schröder/Westbrook (2018-19) — 688 — 7.3

Three-man lineup (year) — Minutes — Net Rating
Paul/SGA/Schröder (2019-20) — 290 — 31.0
George/Schröder/Westbrook (2018-19) — 486 — 11.8

The Thunder are 10th in the league in passes made per game (294.9). Through 44 games last season, the Thunder were last in the NBA in passes per game with 242.2. That difference of 52.7 passes per game has led to a more democratic style of play that’s been welcomed by last season’s players.

Passes don’t equate to wins. The top six teams in passes per game (Golden State, New Orleans, Memphis, Washington, Charlotte and Minnesota) are all below .500.

The Thunder are currently less than $1 million over the luxury tax and won’t have to strain to get under and avoid being a repeater team. They also aren’t afraid to be a repeater this season considering, one, how much they’ve saved since having a massive tax bill for two consecutive summers, and two, they don’t anticipate being a tax team in the next half-decade.

[ThunderBolt]

Zach Lowe has Cp3 in & Russ out.

https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/28483078/lowe-nba-all-stars-24-players-plus-biggest-debates

[mr570]

Zach Lowe has Cp3 in & Russ out.

https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/28483078/lowe-nba-all-stars-24-players-plus-biggest-debates

But of course.

[Old Man Game]

Zach Lowe has Cp3 in & Russ out.

https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/28483078/lowe-nba-all-stars-24-players-plus-biggest-debates

I agree.

[psychpsych]

Zach Lowe has Cp3 in & Russ out.

https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/28483078/lowe-nba-all-stars-24-players-plus-biggest-debates

I agree also, I may sound like a homer but despite Westbrook sometimes being the guy on the Rockets, especially when Harden isn't great like Lowe mentioned, I think the fact they usually lose during this says a lot.

I also don't think Harden should be a starter for the All-Star team, but that just may be recency bias on my part.