limbo wrote:
Google sites has '08 Paul at 27th, behind his teammate Peja Stojakovic... Yeah, you guessed it, there weren't 27 players better than Paul that year... and Peja wasn't the best player for the New Orleans Hornets.
It's prior informed data and Paul suffers from it because he doesn't have a lot of mileage to reinforce his impact up to this point, as he only played two seasons which, while he was very good in '06, '07, were clearly well below his the jump he made in 2008.
As you pointed out. We can observe Paul making a significant leap the very next year and is only 0.6 behind Wade at this point.
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Which is fine for 08, Wade was hurt that year anyway so there's really nothing to compare.
limbo wrote:in '11, he's ahead of Wade
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And i already addressed this which you ignored. A lot of factors outside of how good Wade actually was that year hurt him in RAPM a lot. He was roughly 98% of his previous year self where he was 2nd with a large lead over anyone.
No one actually had Paul ahead of Wade that year as a player. Wade went 4th in the POY voting and Paul 7th. You can go an take Paul because of RAPM but you're really just engaging in some serious revisionist history.
limbo wrote:If i'm indeed hanging my hat, i'm doing so on multiple racks... You're hanging it on specifically two years... '09, where Wade was a measly 0.6 points ahead of Paul. And '10 which is one of the worst years of Paul's prime (and he was injured half the season) vs. arguably the best year of Wade... And both of these are prior informed...
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I'm hanging it on 2 years because outside of 06 those 2 were his best years in RAPM by far. Again, response to your "mountains of data showing Paul better than those years"
limbo wrote:This was just to illustrate Paul was a better playoff performer than Wade. We are, in fact, comparing who deserves to be ranked ahead of the other in an all-time ranking, aren't we? I don't know if you are one of them, but a lot of people are siding with Wade do to him 'dominating' the Playoffs en route to winning multiple championships, while Paul is labeled as a Playoff choker.
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Results are results. We can look at context and try to compare them, but they play 2 completely different styles, Paul's is much more conservative so it's more protective of his stats. I hope that you can at least understand and grasp this as a possibility.
limbo wrote:This data clearly dispels this myth. If you wanna argue '06 Wade was a greater Playoff run than anything we've seen from Paul. Fine. I'll allow it. But it's a minuscule difference in any case. I guess you can't stop people from taking one/two series worth of samples sizes where an elite player goes supernova (like Wade last two series in '06) and wins the title... and those two series immortalize him over arguably better but definitely more consistent players with longer primes and better impact over larger samples of size... There's nothing i can do here.
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There's nothing you an do because Paul doesn't have anything like that on his Resume. His playoff resume is littered with some good-great series along with a lot of ones where he was hurt and missed time or just hurt and played bad. It is what it is.
"The data" doesn't catch all and everything you need to know.
limbo wrote:You are putting Wade alongside the greatest, most versatile player of all-time and saying it's natural to expect his impact to suffer. I see this as at least a yellow flag..
Lebron's also seen a really large dip in impact, so yeah redundancy does that.
limbo wrote:Granted, i don't expect his on/off to be insane, because those teams were more talented than what he had prior in Miami for obvious reasons. But here's the catch. Chris Paul underwent a similar transition in '18, where he was arguably put in an even tougher position playing with the most ball-dominant guard in NBA history and his impact translated far better than Wade alongside LeBron. In fact, Paul finished #1 in RPM that year, which is insane, in a significantly different role that what he was used to during most of his career..
You kind of keep misusing RPM, RAPM and such though. Paul had a great year, but no one had him as a top 5 player that year, because people look at what his capability/ability was at that point in time and considered the situation. Paul at that stage in his career couldn't be relied on for heavy lifting. He only played 32 mpg and missed 24 games. It says a ton about how bad his durability was.
Wade was at a similar level in 2012, and missed some games but i believe was like 3rd or 4th in PER that year.
limbo wrote:This simply tells me Paul's skill and basketball ability is more portable, less volatile and more adaptable, thus putting another father in his cap when compared to Wade.
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Maybe, but you're underrating Wade in these things considering how good off ball he became in 2012 an 2013 which led to some really dominant results for the Heat including a 27 game win streak.
limbo wrote:Ok? In 2007, the Heat went 17-14 without Wade in the RS... Then Lol Deng and Ben Gordon swept them in the 1st round of the Playoffs. Of course the excuse here will be that Wade was coming off an injury, so it doesn't count. But when Chris Paul is playing on one leg no one cares..
His series was comparably bad to Paul's 09, so i guess those 2 wash away?
Also i don't know why you're bringing up 07 compared to Paul's Clippers, i never denied that Wade had a good cast from 05-07, just that Paul's wasn't garbage just because his +/- was great.
limbo wrote:In 2013, the Heat were 11-2 without Wade in the RS... Then he proceeded to get carried to a title... You think CP3 could put up 16/4.5/5 on 50%TS over 22 games and win a ring? No..
No, but when Wade was actually needed in 2012 i question if Paul could hold up. There's good reason to question that when he's got hurt time and time again.
limbo wrote:You can keep tooting Blake's horn but you know every team CP3 has ever been on has been in trouble as soon as he wasn't playing like one of the best players in the league..
Yeah they were real in trouble when Blake was throwing up 10 assist games and nearly taking a 2-0 lead on the Rockets
Let's see prime Wade's teams do that(not 2013 and on Wade).
limbo wrote:LeBron basically resurrected a couple more passable years out of Wade and gave him 2 rings. For all the talk about CP3's body not holding up, Wade would collapse into oblivion if LeBron wasn't there to take on all the responsibilities he did and gave Wade plenty of time to rest between games and taking games off during the RS. .
Ironic considering Paul played 32 mpg and 58 games in 2018 his best chance to win
limbo wrote:Only one metric, prior-informed. I've given you several. Again we go into hanging hats. You need more hats or racks to put them on. Also, i don't consider late 00's Paul to be his peak. He was very good, make no mistake, but there's plenty out there suggesting he was even better in '15-'17. And you can put '18 in there, if you value completely dominating to a historical degree as a 2nd fiddle. .
You're missing the main point by that. The only healthy years where Wade and Paul's real primes overlapped was 09(Wade ahead), and 2011(Paul ahead even thought Wade was clearly better anyway).
You can't compare Paul's RAPM from like 2015-2017 to Wade's. The years are too far apart.
limbo wrote:
So Odom is the GOAT. I guess this settles it because Google RAPM says so.
Ironic considering your whole argument is based on RAPM, +/- etc.
You can read stats, but can you actually analyze a player's game, and their strengths, weaknesses etc?
limbo wrote:
So you won't acknowledge this as relevant at all? A stat that has a proven track record of relatively accurately parsing out the most dominant individual seasons and players in NBA history, at least in terms of production... Are advanced stats only good when they tell us MJ, LeBron, Wilt, Kareem etc. are some of the best players of all-time... but when it comes to Paul, NOPE, there must be an aberration in the stat. Scratch that. It's one thing if Paul had an abnormally good outlier season, or if he finessed some of the stats like Enes Kanter. But dude has MULTIPLE seasons of some of the best advanced stats in NBA history as the clear-cut best player on his team... This dude isn't even Westbrook stat-padding rebounds and playing torpedo basketball with unprecedented usage. He's out there averaging 16 points and 8 assists per game... But i guess since Paul has many 1st and 2nd round exists, that disqualifies that metric as having relevancy. .
Stats are harder to hold up over an entire playoff run than in smaller samples year by year. Paul's longest playoff run in 2018 when he had to go against 3 different opponents and defenses, put up this.
21.1/5.9/5.8 22.8 PER 56.5 ts% 6.6 BPM
Why do you think that is? Part of it is because he didn't get to ball hog and pound the hell out of the rock and simultaneously protect his efficiency. The slowed things down with the Warriors, and had to play an iso taking turns type offense.
Context sometimes makes numbers.
limbo wrote:I took advanced stats, RAPM from multiple sources, ESPN RPM, BBall ref +/- etc..
You know those all attempt to measure slightly different versions of the same thing right?
They all attempt to measure your value in your specific role. It's not a holy grail to measure who's better at basketball.
limbo wrote:06 - Supernova for 2 series, Dallas chokes the Finals. .
He also cooked the 4th ranked Nets defense. He played 3 of the top 7 defenses and 4 of the top 11 and none were able to stop him and for the large majority not even slow him down.
Does Paul have this on his resume? No. You can come up with a million excuses as to why but it doesn't change the facts.
limbo wrote:11 - Let's be honest. Man got saved by LeBron and Bosh against the Bulls. Absolutely atrocious performance that CP3 would be burried alive if he performed like that.
Like i said multiple times in this thread. Paul simply couldn't afford to have these types of series. His teams were absolutely demolished if he did. Wade could afford to go 19 ppg on 50%TS with twice as many turnovers as assists and still advanced against an elite team. Under normal circumstances, that is, not playing with the GOAT, he would've been eliminated right here and wouldn't have the opportunity to do what he did vs. Dallas and this would've been seen as a flop season for Wade. But since LeBron was there, the tables and narrative completely turns from one series to another. This is why i don't like small sample sizes from the Playoffs. If a few bounces go differently, Wade is seen as a flop in 2011 and LeBron as the best player. But now the narrative is LeBron choked in the Finals while Wade was brilliant.
Weird to ignore that..
a) He roasted a -7 defense in the Celtics in the prior round to help get to that point
b)The Bulls played like a -8.5 defense in the Heat series
c) Wade was a big part of their D that played like a -7.6 defense in the Bulls series
It wasn't a good offensive series from Wade, but hey at least he played, Paul would've probably pulled a hamstring and missed the series in game 2
limbo wrote:12 - Hurt in the Playoffs. CP3 would've been eliminated in his shoes. But LeBron + Bosh + weaker conference = ring
Bosh missed a lot of the playoffs. Were you watching or were you too worried about what Paul was doing?
Without Bosh they were undersized against Indiana and the Celtics. Wade also received a ton of defensive attention agaisnt Boston which helped free Lebron up.
limbo wrote:CP3 > Wade
I rest my case.
I can rest my case too, it doesn't mean either of us are right
