Luka Dončić Discussion - Year 2

[Pg81]

Check the Sixers and Bucks combined home record vs the other teams: 21-1 + 20-1 = 41-2

Check their record vs the Mavs without Luka: 0-2

What are the chances...

They lost Luka, fell into a hole, but were able to come back from 20 down vs Miami. To build a 30 point lead vs Raptors. To be competitive vs Celtics. There have been multiple games where Luka was chilling on the bench and the other guys built up a big dead.

Just recall the plus/minus thing hah.

Assuming the Mavs wouldn't intentionally tank, there is no way that the Mavs would be 10-34 without Luka.

This just means the Mavs without Luka play better basketball than the Hawks. Thank god for Luka. I don't think I'd enjoy seeing Trae jacking up some of the shots he takes that much. Not to mention offering no resistance on defense.

So what is the Mavs record against the Knicks?

Re-read my post above. I added some more info because all year I was curious about the on/off thing (always believing that in the long run Luka would clearly establish himself well).

I generally avoid these discussions.

And to this post of yours... vs Knicks. Luka played in both games. He misses key shots in both games. Missed game tying 3s. Go ahead 3s.

If you think losing 2 games is the same as the whole run the Mavs had without Luka and the whole year when Luka is not playing... then cool.

If you or anyone believes that the Mavs would be 10-34 or worse, all evidence says that's wrong. You can't even begin to make a case for it. Even when the Mavs were bad (2 years before Luka)... they weren't able to be this bad.

A lot of us WISHED the Mavs were as bad as the Hawks are this season. They weren't... and we suffered because they won too many games.

I have edited my previous post and I have made the case if only your reading comprehension would not fail. The Hawks are that bad because apart from Trae their starting five struggled with injuries and their bench is weak on top of being the youngest team in the league. With a healthy starting lineup that team is better. The Mavs had a lucky run without Luka and some bad luck against the Knicks, thanks for making my point. A handful of games proves very little and as I have stated before, fully healthy 76ers team or Bucks in the playoffs will eviscerate Mavs without Luka. Even with Luka the chances for an upset is not great especially if KP cannot play which is not an unrealistic scenario. Mavs defense without KP is also pretty bad.

[J_T]

Plus minus is a great stat yeah... the bench was actually having much better plus minus than the starters. I wonder why Carlisle didn't swap it around since he is so high on analytics? Surely the Mavs would have made the playoffs or better, if the bench was playing starters' minutes.

[Bob8]

Check the Sixers and Bucks combined home record vs the other teams: 21-1 + 20-1 = 41-2

Check their record vs the Mavs without Luka: 0-2

What are the chances...

They lost Luka, fell into a hole, but were able to come back from 20 down vs Miami. To build a 30 point lead vs Raptors. To be competitive vs Celtics. There have been multiple games where Luka was chilling on the bench and the other guys built up a big dead.

Just recall the plus/minus thing hah.

Assuming the Mavs wouldn't intentionally tank, there is no way that the Mavs would be 10-34 without Luka.

This just means the Mavs without Luka play better basketball than the Hawks. Thank god for Luka. I don't think I'd enjoy seeing Trae jacking up some of the shots he takes that much. Not to mention offering no resistance on defense.

So what is the Mavs record against the Knicks?

Re-read my post above. I added some more info because all year I was curious about the on/off thing (always believing that in the long run Luka would clearly establish himself well).

I generally avoid these discussions.

And to this post of yours... vs Knicks. Luka played in both games. He misses key shots in both games. Missed game tying 3s. Go ahead 3s.

If you think losing 2 games is the same as the whole run the Mavs had without Luka and the whole year when Luka is not playing... then cool.

If you or anyone believes that the Mavs would be 10-34 or worse, all evidence says that's wrong. You can't even begin to make a case for it. Even when the Mavs were bad (2 years before Luka)... they weren't able to be this bad.

A lot of us WISHED the Mavs were as bad as the Hawks are this season. They weren't... and we suffered because they won too many games.

His on/off went from - 12 to +3. I don't believe that 2 games is big enough sample to make any kind of conclusion. About Miami and Toronto. They played very good one part off the game and incredibly bad other part. Only thing we know is that Mavs with Luka are 5th seed in the west at the moment. Playing 11 games without KP.

[Dirk]

His on/off went from - 12 to +3. I don't believe that 2 games is big enough sample to make any kind of conclusion. About Miami and Toronto. They played very good one part off the game and incredibly bad other part. Only thing we know is that Mavs with Luka are 5th seed in the west at the moment. Playing 11 games without KP.

2 games, 10 games, 15 games, all small samples. Which is why the "impact reputation" thread was pretty bad. I think it was 11 games sample. Point was to use the games as symbolism - it's "not 2 games". It's 2 games vs 41-2 teams and a whole run of games. And all the numbers when Luka is on the bench.

The Mavs exist before Luka as well.

Fans wanted the Mavs to tank. Be bad. You probably saw people have a discussion about all that tanking stuff? You got the idea of how people felt. People were upset they won games (this was the season before the Luka draft and the season before too). Carlisle just usually had teams win too many games... and there was always a period during the season where they played good basketball... so the Mavs frustrated a lot of people who wanted full tanking teams.


And despite that they never were able to be a 10-34 team. Never. The Mavs were never that kind of "bad team".

Anyone who seriously believe the Mavs without Luka are that kind of team now... is just creating fantasy and they have no evidence to stand on. Historical or current season. I probably shouldn't have even engaged in this discussion (just notice how defensive people got, when I merely am pointing out obvious things).

Like you say, all I really care about are his numbers when he is playing (back when that "impact" topic was created, that was what I cared about really). When the "impact" topic was created, his numbers favoured that narrative (they were very identical when he was on or off), but thankfully... time showed "his impact". I never had any doubt.

What we really care about: Mavs are "the best offense in the league" with Luka on. They need to get better at closing out games. And generally, they still are a piece or two away from truly being where we want them to be. It's all good with me this year.

[Pg81]

What we need is a KP who is a legitimate scoring threat. If he can become that the Mavs will have one of the greatest duos in the league and KP is a really good defender already. For his offensive game to improve he will have to learn to play like Dirk and realize that one legged fadeaways was far from Dirk`s only skill and instead like Dirk add a respectable postgame to his arsenal.

[Archx]

Regarding those NYK games. 1st game Luka 38/14/10 and 2nd game 33/10/11 ... I think those games shouldn't have been so close anyway. Mavs played with bad energy, Luka kept them afloat along with some help from KP.

And games that Mavs played without him. KP played incredible defense, something we expect from him every game but didn't happen against the LAC. Miami, BOS, MIL, Philly played really really bad, even TOR played bad for some reason before they rallied. MIL probably played their worst game against DAL at that time.
Those games that Mavs won without him were obviously a great defensive effort but also they shot incredibly well from the floor and opposing teams looked like they underestimated them and didn't have any real plan how to stop their shooting. Makes me think coaches have only 1 plan how to stop Mavs, make life difficult for Doncic and that's it.

[J_T]

I see that some fans have created elaborate theories based on games when Luka or KP were not playing. They don't really care about sample size, so I will not care about sample size either. And I will only look at the same games they are looking at. I am counting (as people usually do) the 1 minute injury game as "without"

Mavs' season record: 27-12 : 62.8%

With KP: 20-12 : 62.5%

Without KP: 7-4 : 63.6%

With Luka 25-13 : 65.8%

Without Luka 2-3 : 40%


My conclusions:

Without Luka this team would have a record 17-26 at the moment, which would have been good enough for 13th spot probably.

Playing with our without KP makes no difference in winni... wait, wait... 62.5% vs 63.6% ? I'm sensing something... yes. Playing with KP means 51.2 wins at the end of the season. Playing without KP equals to 52.2 wins. So obviously they should be moving KP to a bench role, it would result in one extra win.

I have also checked few other players.

Mavs without Powell are 66.7% (2-1), meaning that it's better if Powell doesn't play.

Mavs without THJ are 33.3% (1-2), meaning that he might be the most important player on the roster.

Mavs without Maxi are 100% (1-0), meaning that he is the least important player on the roster.

This is bullet-proof statistical analysis.

[wolfram]

This is nonsense. Why even bother with something like this? Luka and KP are players that would make any team better.

[Bob8]

His on/off went from - 12 to +3. I don't believe that 2 games is big enough sample to make any kind of conclusion. About Miami and Toronto. They played very good one part off the game and incredibly bad other part. Only thing we know is that Mavs with Luka are 5th seed in the west at the moment. Playing 11 games without KP.

2 games, 10 games, 15 games, all small samples. Which is why the "impact reputation" thread was pretty bad. I think it was 11 games sample. Point was to use the games as symbolism - it's "not 2 games". It's 2 games vs 41-2 teams and a whole run of games. And all the numbers when Luka is on the bench.

The Mavs exist before Luka as well.

Fans wanted the Mavs to tank. Be bad. You probably saw people have a discussion about all that tanking stuff? You got the idea of how people felt. People were upset they won games (this was the season before the Luka draft and the season before too). Carlisle just usually had teams win too many games... and there was always a period during the season where they played good basketball... so the Mavs frustrated a lot of people who wanted full tanking teams.


And despite that they never were able to be a 10-34 team. Never. The Mavs were never that kind of "bad team".

Anyone who seriously believe the Mavs without Luka are that kind of team now... is just creating fantasy and they have no evidence to stand on. Historical or current season. I probably shouldn't have even engaged in this discussion (just notice how defensive people got, when I merely am pointing out obvious things).

Like you say, all I really care about are his numbers when he is playing (back when that "impact" topic was created, that was what I cared about really). When the "impact" topic was created, his numbers favoured that narrative (they were very identical when he was on or off), but thankfully... time showed "his impact". I never had any doubt.

What we really care about: Mavs are "the best offense in the league" with Luka on. They need to get better at closing out games. And generally, they still are a piece or two away from truly being where we want them to be. It's all good with me this year.

I agree, but you have started with those 2 games, Mavs has won without Luka.

Stats are pretty clear,

25/13 with Luka, impressing numbers, for the Mavs and Luka as clear leader of the team. He for sure is not the only reason for this record, but is for sure with RC the biggest.

[Archx]

The way people are arguing about this makes me think Mavs are trying to trade Doncic

[Bob8]

Regarding those NYK games. 1st game Luka 38/14/10 and 2nd game 33/10/11 ... I think those games shouldn't have been so close anyway. Mavs played with bad energy, Luka kept them afloat along with some help from KP.

And games that Mavs played without him. KP played incredible defense, something we expect from him every game but didn't happen against the LAC. Miami, BOS, MIL, Philly played really really bad, even TOR played bad for some reason before they rallied. MIL probably played their worst game against DAL at that time.
Those games that Mavs won without him were obviously a great defensive effort but also they shot incredibly well from the floor and opposing teams looked like they underestimated them and didn't have any real plan how to stop their shooting. Makes me think coaches have only 1 plan how to stop Mavs, make life difficult for Doncic and that's it.

Toronto was without 3 starters, so it should be Mavs win even without Luka.

[J_T]

Why was this moved to Luka Doncic discussion? This is not Luka Doncic discussion. If anything it's more KP discussion but even that not really.

It's just hiding simple truth exposing fantastic statistical analysis people have been practicing around here.

[Archx]

Regarding those NYK games. 1st game Luka 38/14/10 and 2nd game 33/10/11 ... I think those games shouldn't have been so close anyway. Mavs played with bad energy, Luka kept them afloat along with some help from KP.

And games that Mavs played without him. KP played incredible defense, something we expect from him every game but didn't happen against the LAC. Miami, BOS, MIL, Philly played really really bad, even TOR played bad for some reason before they rallied. MIL probably played their worst game against DAL at that time.
Those games that Mavs won without him were obviously a great defensive effort but also they shot incredibly well from the floor and opposing teams looked like they underestimated them and didn't have any real plan how to stop their shooting. Makes me think coaches have only 1 plan how to stop Mavs, make life difficult for Doncic and that's it.

Toronto was without 3 starters, so it should be Mavs win even without Luka.

You're right. That should have been 100% a win. No excuses. And it basically was a win until everyone disappeared and had no one to close the game for them.

[Pg81]

Anyone else laughing at Skip Brainless pitiful attempts creating controversies by ranting about Luka? Just watched a terrible hot take after the Clippers game where Skip played feeling insulted about some fans mentioning Luka together with Bird, even though Luka at age 20 has accomplished far more than Bird had when he entered the league at the age of 23. He never really brings up any valid facts, just basic volume stats and maybe FG% if he has a good day, otherwise it is all about "killer instinct" and other such drivel.

[Imon]

Our boy's moving up.
His second year in the league and he takes a clean sweep of the fan, player, and media vote for best guard in the West.

Read on Twitter

[Archx]

And he also jumped Giannis in fan vote, came close 2nd overall lol. Cuban will earn a ton of money just form marketing this guy.

Our boy's moving up.
His second year in the league and he takes a clean sweep of the fan, player, and media vote for best guard in the West.

Read on Twitter

[wolfram]

Anyone else laughing at Skip Brainless pitiful attempts creating controversies by ranting about Luka? Just watched a terrible hot take after the Clippers game where Skip played feeling insulted about some fans mentioning Luka together with Bird, even though Luka at age 20 has accomplished far more than Bird had when he entered the league at the age of 23. He never really brings up any valid facts, just basic volume stats and maybe FG% if he has a good day, otherwise it is all about "killer instinct" and other such drivel.

I was shocked at first, but then I realised he is doing this to stay relevant. Luka is the next big thing and after hating on Lebron for years he found his next topic for a decade. It is pure entertainment and you should take it that way.

[Pg81]

Anyone else laughing at Skip Brainless pitiful attempts creating controversies by ranting about Luka? Just watched a terrible hot take after the Clippers game where Skip played feeling insulted about some fans mentioning Luka together with Bird, even though Luka at age 20 has accomplished far more than Bird had when he entered the league at the age of 23. He never really brings up any valid facts, just basic volume stats and maybe FG% if he has a good day, otherwise it is all about "killer instinct" and other such drivel.

I was shocked at first, but then I realised he is doing this to stay relevant. Luka is the next big thing and after hating on Lebron for years he found his next topic for a decade. It is pure entertainment and you should take it that way.

Exactly my thoughts!
It is almost pathetic how desperate he is to disparage Luka and LeBron just to keep his job which is hardly impressive to begin with, just another talking head trying to create fake controversy.

[Bob8]

Anyone else laughing at Skip Brainless pitiful attempts creating controversies by ranting about Luka? Just watched a terrible hot take after the Clippers game where Skip played feeling insulted about some fans mentioning Luka together with Bird, even though Luka at age 20 has accomplished far more than Bird had when he entered the league at the age of 23. He never really brings up any valid facts, just basic volume stats and maybe FG% if he has a good day, otherwise it is all about "killer instinct" and other such drivel.

I was shocked at first, but then I realised he is doing this to stay relevant. Luka is the next big thing and after hating on Lebron for years he found his next topic for a decade. It is pure entertainment and you should take it that way.

Exactly my thoughts!
It is almost pathetic how desperate he is to disparage Luka and LeBron just to keep his job which is hardly impressive to begin with, just another talking head trying to create fake controversy.

His job might not be impressive, but 5 mio salary is quite impressive.

[Dirk]

DPOY

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