Leprechauns vs Bam Bam, Tuesday 1/28/20 @8p

[gom]

Lol and he won't be guarded on the other end. Smothering the lanes and killing spacing.

????

Winslow is one of our best ball distributors when he's healthy. His 3-point shooting has improved. This year's 3-point shooting percentage is down but he's only taken 27 3-point attempts.

Whew, don't get your hopes up for the playoffs.

I'm really impressed how defeatist some of you guys are. Our team is very good, and as fans, we all have to be more supportive.

[KingDavid]

Lol and he won't be guarded on the other end. Smothering the lanes and killing spacing.

????

Winslow is one of our best ball distributors when he's healthy. His 3-point shooting has improved. This year's 3-point shooting percentage is down but he's only taken 27 3-point attempts.

Whew, don't get your hopes up for the playoffs.

I'm really impressed how defeatist some of you guys are. Our team is very good, and as fans, we all have to be more supportive.

This Winslow isn't last year's Winslow. He needs the ball to be effective. He bricked layups left and right. He couldn't shoot. Teams were NOT guarding him when he was on the floor and it killed our spacing. Just like Bam for a while. We started him next to Jimmy while he was healthy and their skillsets are redundant, good and bad. He's a lesser Jimmy Butler.

Oh I'm supportive and love being proved wrong. But I have a critical eye too. But the very little I saw from Winslow with Jimmy wasn't promising. I'm really hoping his back injury is what is messing with his shooting. I can live with the missed layups and whatnot because there's times in a game where Winslow sort of erupts then putters out, might also be the injury, but the shooting is needed badly. More than his distribution. Duncan would be on the bench.

Nunn
Butler
Winslow
Bam
Meyers

No spacing.

[gom]

(snip) lesser Jimmy Butler...

No. There isn't enough data. Here are the games they've played together.

10-29 (w) Atlanta
11-5 (l) @ Denver (Winslow's concussion)
11-29 (w) vs GSW
12-01 (w) @ BRK
12-03 (w) @ Toronto
12-04 (l) @ Boston on b2b
01-08 (w)

Justise's best minutes this season were before Jimmy joined the team. He especially played well in the first two games with Memphis & Milwaukee, but I think Winslow's best game was in Toronto (though not statistically). Justise being available lessens the load on Jimmy Butler. It takes time for synergy to develop, but our superior defense with Bam+Winslow+Adebayo was a factor in these early season wins.

Before throwing in the towel on Pat & Spo's experiment, let's give these men a little more time. Shall we?

[AirP.]

Winslow is one of our best ball distributors when he's healthy. His 3-point shooting has improved. This year's 3-point shooting percentage is down but he's only taken 27 3-point attempts.

Winslow isn't a good 3pt shooter, the last 2 years he's had good 3pt% because he only shot the ball when wide open, any other time he actually shot a 3 it was at a bad percentage. Teams will cheat off Winslow and only when he makes a 3 will they really worry about closing out on him. Before he got hurt in the Denver game, the Nuggets just completely ignored Winslow as a spacer and it seemed that they didn't really make closing out on him a priority.

Last year's Winslow 3pters.
22.8% of his shots were wide open(6+ feet from a defender) 3s where he made 42.7% of them, that's great! Any other time he was 27.6% or lower and that's with him being open(4-6 feet from a defender) and he only took 10.1% of his shots when just open from 3. Only 1.2% of his shots were 3pt shots with his man 4 feet or closer.

Since he can make 3s when wide open gives you some hope that he can expand the types of 3s he takes and makes but looking at his shot, I'm not sure he can.

[Bishop45]

If Winslow were healthy he'd be closing games with Butler, Bam

No need to put the horse before the cart, let 'em get there

[AirP.]

If Winslow were healthy he'd be closing games with Butler, Bam

No need to put the horse before the cart, let 'em get there

Sure, near the end of games when it's close or Miami is in the lead, you absolutely want defense on the court but for the majority of the game you want at least 3 spacers on the the court for a more efficient offense. In my mind, Justise is too valuable to be used as a roleplayer(even with him closing out games), hence the reason I think he should be moved as a positive asset. Without Butler being traded for, Winslow would be doing Butler's role except being much less efficient then Butler(which would give Miami a lesser offense).

When Butler was put in somewhat a similar role in Minnesota, most of Minnesota's players had very high TS%s and since he's left the efficiency has dropped greatly.
Minnesota TS%
19-20 .543 (25th) - Towns has missed time.
18-19 .552 (20th) - Butler traded early.
17-18 .566 (9th) - Butler missed 6 weeks and the team TS% dropped to 9th, was around 3rd most of the season.

[gom]

In the Denver game, one of Winslow's 3-point attempts hit the backboard (because he had suffered a concussion a few minutes before and still played) and the other was defended. He missed that shot. Something tells me a sampling of two is not enough data. I know. It's called statistics. That's what it is.

By the way, the Heat try to pass the ball around until someone is wide open. It's called good ball movement. We try to do that for all our players.

[AirP.]

In the Denver game, one of Winslow's 3-point attempts hit the backboard (because he had suffered a concussion a few minutes before and still played) and the other was defended. He missed that shot. Something tells me a sampling of two is not enough data. I know. It's called statistics. That's what it is.

By the way, the Heat try to pass the ball around until someone is wide open. It's called good ball movement. We try to do that for all our players.

Ok, try this...
Winslow - ORTG
19-20 - 93 - Horrible
18-19 - 102 - Horrible
17-18 - 101 - Horrible
Ball movement with horrible offensive efficiency, ball movement is suppose to equate to good offensive efficiency.

On the 3pt shooters creating space, it's the respect that the 3pt shot has to keep the lane open, good thing I kept these pics from that game. I saw this happening a lot in other games too I just picked this game, teams don't respect his outside shot(which his 3pt numbers show why).







Last year's shot tracking numbers, if he's not wide open for a 3 he doesn't shoot it and if for some reason he does shoot it, it's not good, even when he's open.


I like Winslow but I'm not going to act like he's way better then he is, he's great defensively, is good at creating for other and not really good at much else. He's not even had a season where he shot 70% from the free throw line.

[Bishop45]

If Winslow were healthy he'd be closing games with Butler, Bam

No need to put the horse before the cart, let 'em get there

Sure, near the end of games when it's close or Miami is in the lead, you absolutely want defense on the court but for the majority of the game you want at least 3 spacers on the the court for a more efficient offense. In my mind, Justise is too valuable to be used as a roleplayer(even with him closing out games), hence the reason I think he should be moved as a positive asset. Without Butler being traded for, Winslow would be doing Butler's role except being much less efficient then Butler(which would give Miami a lesser offense).

When Butler was put in somewhat a similar role in Minnesota, most of Minnesota's players had very high TS%s and since he's left the efficiency has dropped greatly.
Minnesota TS%
19-20 .543 (25th) - Towns has missed time.
18-19 .552 (20th) - Butler traded early.
17-18 .566 (9th) - Butler missed 6 weeks and the team TS% dropped to 9th, was around 3rd most of the season.

If a good player gets put on the mill then I'm for it, otherwise I only care that we don't play too many non-shooters/back-to-the-basket guys(Although that matters how you categorize it; Bam's our only non-shooter in my eyes, hopefully that's to change next yr)

[AirP.]

If Winslow were healthy he'd be closing games with Butler, Bam

No need to put the horse before the cart, let 'em get there

Sure, near the end of games when it's close or Miami is in the lead, you absolutely want defense on the court but for the majority of the game you want at least 3 spacers on the the court for a more efficient offense. In my mind, Justise is too valuable to be used as a roleplayer(even with him closing out games), hence the reason I think he should be moved as a positive asset. Without Butler being traded for, Winslow would be doing Butler's role except being much less efficient then Butler(which would give Miami a lesser offense).

When Butler was put in somewhat a similar role in Minnesota, most of Minnesota's players had very high TS%s and since he's left the efficiency has dropped greatly.
Minnesota TS%
19-20 .543 (25th) - Towns has missed time.
18-19 .552 (20th) - Butler traded early.
17-18 .566 (9th) - Butler missed 6 weeks and the team TS% dropped to 9th, was around 3rd most of the season.

If a good player gets put on the mill then I'm for it, otherwise I only care that we don't play too many non-shooters/back-to-the-basket guys(Although that matters how you categorize it; Bam's our only non-shooter in my eyes, hopefully that's to change next yr)

Butler's not a 3pt shooter but since he's good in the midrange and finds lanes to hit to get passes for close shot attempts so he gets some respect which helps with spacing. All Winslow needs is to shoot good enough to have the defense respect him, if he could do that this team would be much better with him. Miami will still be better with Winslow then without, but the question is, could you trade him for bigger upgrade for the team? I really would hate to let all this depth go to waste instead of doing some type of consolidation trade to upgrade the starters.

[gom]

Smart move by the Nuggets not to mark Winslow closely after suffering a concussion at 9:23 in the third quarter. I'm sure the ball was pretty fuzzy for him.