Official Trade Thread -- Part XXXVIII

[Illmatic12]

Spoiler:

The only argument for retaining Bertans is if you accept Wall can't be moved for the next 3 years so the next 3 years are lost years anyhow. Under that premise, one can argue that we may as well be 45-win good instead of 35-win good by signing Bertans to a 3-year deal that expires when Wall is up. That's a viable strategy if you really think that picking in the 14-20 range isn't really worse than picking in the 7-12 range. Better to just squeak into the playoffs and look like a credible organization than it is to tank relentlessly in the hopes of landing a superstar. This is doclinkin's model. Be decent, get better, build a culture, and hopefully you get lucky with a late pick or you finally earn the credibility to attract a true max-caliber free agent.
.

I definitely understand the idea of just doing The Process for the rest of Wall's deal, though if we did that, we should have already traded Beal, or at least be trying to trade him. I've defended that model, but I don't think it fits our current team.

The core problem with this is that while the culture stuff is really really hard to quantify, it exists. And a significant effect of it is that it makes your assets stronger, both objectively (positive team atmosphere, better training and development, opportunities for playoff basketball, veteran influence) and subjectively (young players tend to look like better assets when they're part of a winning team, or at least a team that isn't bad, which means when the time comes to consolidate, or trade for that disgruntled superstar, it gives you an edge in making that trade). Also it gives you leverage when it comes time to resign that star, even if you do land them in the draft (which is why Beal signed a medium term extension with a bad team despite really really really wanting to win)

And while 14-20 is kind of worse than the 7-12 range, even PIF himself has argued *repeatedly* that it's not significantly worse, which is why we argue about Clarke vs Hachimura every week (not so much because Rui Hachimura can't or won't be good or even great, but because the draft is a crapshoot especially past top 3, and you want more lottery tickets). And of course, you never know when Giannis or whoever (or possibly Ujiri) might fall in love with DC. And tanking has been drastically nerfed as a strategy. The worst record is equivalent to the 4th worst record, and the 7th worst record has only half as much of a chance to land the #1 pick as the worst record. And the 1st pick might not even be a Kevin Durant or a LeBron James! They might be an Anthony Bennett, or a Markelle Fultz, or even just a John Wall (i.e 2nd or 3rd best player on a contender).

Ultimately, trying to win every single transaction in terms of value sounds great, but "value" can be very fluid, winning more games in the short-term can have long-term value in itself (as long as you don't mortgage the future entirely), and just because it's hard to measure, doesn't mean it's not real.

Masai Ujiri is a free agent executive in 2021 , isn't he?
I could see a path where the Wizards push to achieve relative respectability next season, then Leonsis feels empowered enough to put that big $$$ offer back on the table and draw Ujiri here to bring us championship-level credibility. One thing worth noting is that Tommy Sheppard was only given a 2yr extension, AND Leonsis was careful to give him the "General Manager" title , leaving "President of Basketball Operations" as a technically vacant seat.. hmmm. Given the relationship with Obama, I believe the door is still open for Masai in 2021 .

If that's the case, then it makes sense that Monumental Basketball is in the mode of establishing our reputation as a respectable franchise in an international market that can acquire and retain talent (not only free agent players, but also in terms of coaching staff, executive personnel and so on). . if they believe that retaining the Latvian Laser at his market value is part of that organizational direction, then they probably should continue with that and not deviate just because a crappy draft pick is being dangled in front of them.

I look at it this way: If this 2yr plan falls flat and we eventually move Beal for a haul, at that point we can ask for all the late first round picks our heart desires. Right now, I'm perfectly fine with giving the new regime another season to flesh out their plan before we start talking about trading our best players for picks.

[queridiculo]

...You "have a hunch," illmatic! -- Come on, out with it!

Looking around the league, Drummond in Det has been on the market for a while and fits the Bradley Beal timeline (they were in the same draft class i believe). Could see them throwing a couple of their spare parts at the Pistons to buy low on Drummond’s bird rights - he’s already stated he’ll opt out enter FA. My thinking is, it gives FO a chance to re-evaluate the defense with a true center in the paint plus earns them some goodwill with Brad.

They’re in a position to pull this off while still protecting themselves both ways. Ideally things go well and they’re able to re-sign him to an affordable extension. But if not they can seek out a willing S&T partner in July , or just let him walk and use the spare cap room on an FA bigman .. Millsap Favors Ibaka out there to name a few

Dude... Andre Drummond is making $27m this year. & he has a player option for almost $29m for next year.

So much for "an affordable extension."

& who are these "spare parts" exactly?

Wizards out:
Thomas Bryant, Ian Mahinmi, Isaiah Thomas

Wizards in:
Andre Drummond

Drummond can opt out and is eligible for a first year starting salary of $34.5 million.

Keeping that number in mind Washington would be at around $123 million committed to 2020/21 with 9 players under contract.

Washington would likely have to include future considerations and perhaps offer a protected pick swap for this upcoming draft to make up value.

Now, let's say Washington gets creative and finds a way to turn Troy Brown Jr. and Davis Bertans into Robert Covington.

You'd be looking at a salary commitment of $132 million for that same league year with the same number of players under contract.

Wall/Smith
Beal/
Roco/Schoefield
Hachimura/Bonga
Drummond/Wagner

That's an intriguing group and the Wizards would likely get a chance to add a lottery selection on top of that.

[Illmatic12]

...You "have a hunch," illmatic! -- Come on, out with it!

Looking around the league, Drummond in Det has been on the market for a while and fits the Bradley Beal timeline (they were in the same draft class i believe). Could see them throwing a couple of their spare parts at the Pistons to buy low on Drummond’s bird rights - he’s already stated he’ll opt out enter FA. My thinking is, it gives FO a chance to re-evaluate the defense with a true center in the paint plus earns them some goodwill with Brad.

They’re in a position to pull this off while still protecting themselves both ways. Ideally things go well and they’re able to re-sign him to an affordable extension. But if not they can seek out a willing S&T partner in July , or just let him walk and use the spare cap room on an FA bigman .. Millsap Favors Ibaka out there to name a few

Dude... Andre Drummond is making $27m this year. & he has a player option for almost $29m for next year.

So much for "an affordable extension."

& who are these "spare parts" exactly?

Missed this earlier, but this is the trade I’d do:

Mahinmi + Bryant + McRae for Drummond + 2nd

Would hurt to give up our 2020 2nd rounder .. but if they insist on a pick I may go with our 2025 2nd

[Dark Faze]

How is Drummonds defense these days?

[Illmatic12]

How is Drummonds defense these days?

Early in the season (before the trade talks) Drummond was getting some light praise as a possible DPOY candidate:

https://www.detroitbadboys.com/2019/10/30/20937736/andre-drummond-is-making-an-early-case-for-defensive-player-of-the-year

Since then? Probably not great on d, many Pistons fans seem to notice he’s been distracted since the trade rumors and doesn’t seem to be giving max effort playing in a lame duck situation.

But to be clear: historically Drummond has been a stalwart. Drummond has been top 4 in defensive win shares over the prior 4 seasons. Top 10 in defensive BPM (#1 in ‘17-18) over that period. And Detroit has been a top 12 defense since Drummond’s 3rd season up until last.

[Dark Faze]

If that's the case I'd be interested in what queridiculo is selling. Maybe if we could do a threeway trade and send whatever pick we get for Bertans to the Pistons.

3rd team gets Bertans, sends out a first (probably a late one)
Wiz get Drummond, send out Bertans, Bryant, Mahinmi
Detroit gets Bryant, 1st, Mahinmi

The thing is, I don't think its a trade we can really do if we're anticipating having to give Drummond a max. It's a trade you do if you think you can get away with paying him in the low 20's a year. Certainly not a new max in the 30's.

[Illmatic12]

Wait what?? Lol, no way I give Drummond the max.

The Pistons writer from the Athletic reported his market is expected to be in the $20-25M/yr range.

Clint Capela is making $17M.. Drummond is a high-end rim runner who does a little more than CC so that sounds about right

[payitforward]

Masai Ujiri is a free agent executive in 2021 , isn't he?
I could see a path where the Wizards push to achieve relative respectability next season, then Leonsis feels empowered enough to put that big $$$ offer back on the table and draw Ujiri here to bring us championship-level credibility. One thing worth noting is that Tommy Sheppard was only given a 2yr extension, AND Leonsis was careful to give him the "General Manager" title , leaving "President of Basketball Operations" as a technically vacant seat.. hmmm. Given the relationship with Obama, I believe the door is still open for Masai in 2021 .

If that's the case, then it makes sense that Monumental Basketball is in the mode of establishing our reputation as a respectable franchise in an international market that can acquire and retain talent (not only free agent players, but also in terms of coaching staff, executive personnel and so on). . if they believe that retaining the Latvian Laser at his market value is part of that organizational direction, then they probably should continue with that and not deviate just because a crappy draft pick is being dangled in front of them.

I look at it this way: If this 2yr plan falls flat and we eventually move Beal for a haul, at that point we can ask for all the late first round picks our heart desires. Right now, I'm perfectly fine with giving the new regime another season to flesh out their plan before we start talking about trading our best players for picks.

Everybody wants Ujiri, & everyone will pay top dollar for him. Maybe there's something to draw him here, who knows... There's certainly plenty to draw him to New York City. Or Los Angeles. Maybe he'd like Philly? Or San Francisco? A lot of people like Portland, right? Life is good in Miami, isn't it?

IOW, "Masai Ujiri... here to bring us championship-level credibility" is not a "path." It's not a plan. It's not even an idea. I'm not sure it's close enough to reality even to qualify as a dream.

As to your data points... what would make us think that "President of Basketball Operations" is a "vacant seat," as opposed to a job that no longer exists in the current organization of Monumental. Try to find a "President of..." anything at all in the Monumental org chart; it doesn't exist. Certainly there's no Wizards job above Tommy's. If Joe Blow comes in to run the Wizards, Tommy leaves.

The first sentence of your second para, otoh, makes sense -- I'd say that is exactly what Ted wants to do.

Yet... what in heaven's name would re-signing Bertans, or not re-signing him, have to do with that? Oh, & what makes a "crappy draft pick" btw?

What "2yr plan"? What is "their plan"? What "best players" are you suggesting we'd be trading? What makes a trade "for picks" any different from any other trade?

[nate33]

How is Drummonds defense these days?

His defense isn't particularly good at all. Numbers like defensive win shares and DRtg heavily factor defensive rebounding so he looks good in those figures, but the on/off numbers don't agree. His DRPM has been fairly lousy for 3 years running. He typically ranks in the 20's among NBA centers, and most of the guys ahead of him are starters. So he's an average or modestly below-average defender among starting centers.

He really isn't a difference maker. It's just not worth paying Drummond $20-25M a year to only be marginally better than Thomas Bryant on defense (and worse on offense).

I'm open minded to replacing Bryant with a more defensive minded guy, but not at that cost. Maybe go get a guy like Dedmon or trade for Capela.

[payitforward]

Wizards out:
Thomas Bryant, Ian Mahinmi, Isaiah Thomas

Wizards in:
Andre Drummond

Drummond can opt out and is eligible for a first year starting salary of $34.5 million.

Keeping that number in mind Washington would be at around $123 million committed to 2020/21 with 9 players under contract.

Washington would likely have to include future considerations and perhaps offer a protected pick swap for this upcoming draft to make up value.

Now, let's say Washington gets creative and finds a way to turn Troy Brown Jr. and Davis Bertans into Robert Covington.

You'd be looking at a salary commitment of $132 million for that same league year with the same number of players under contract.

Wall/Smith
Beal/
Roco/Schoefield
Hachimura/Bonga
Drummond/Wagner

That's an intriguing group and the Wizards would likely get a chance to add a lottery selection on top of that.

Intriguing group? Usually you have really cool ideas, but I guess even Homer nods, because this is the nightmare of nightmares!

Robert Covington scores fewer points than Davis Bertans, & he has a lower efg% than Davis plus a lower FT%. Meaning that he posts a lower -- significantly lower -- TS% than Bertans. On the rest of the stuff, there is next to no difference between them.

IOW, Covington is not as effective as Davis Bertans on his own, yet you want to give both Bertans & Brown for him? Yikes! Then there's the fact that he makes as much as the 2 of them combined & is signed for 2 more years at his over-priced salary!

Plus you want Drummond at $34.5m instead of Bryant at $8.5m. Good God, man!!

My guess is you were not yourself when you came up with this. My proof is that you suggest that after trading Brown & Bertans for Covington, we would have the same number of players under contract!

[payitforward]

How is Drummonds defense these days?

His defense isn't particularly good at all. Numbers like defensive win shares and DRtg heavily factor defensive rebounding so he looks good in those figures, but the on/off numbers don't agree. His DRPM has been fairly lousy for 3 years running. He typically ranks in the 20's among NBA centers, and most of the guys ahead of him are starters. So he's an average or modestly below-average defender among starting centers.

He really isn't a difference maker. It's just not worth paying Drummond $20-25M a year to only be marginally better than Thomas Bryant on defense (and worse on offense).

I'm open minded to replacing Bryant with a more defensive minded guy, but not at that cost. Maybe go get a guy like Dedmon or trade for Capela.

I think Drummond is more effective than you suggest, but what difference does it make? Drummond is scheduled to make almost $28m next year. He'll only decline his option if his agent has a better deal for him. So forget about "$20-25m a year." Especially since I'll be surprised if someone doesn't give him a max or close to it.

I don't want to trade Bryant for Capela either -- tho I like Capela. Thomas Bryant is the textbook example of a way way positive asset. He's worth a whole bunch more than what he makes now, & he is capable of a lot of improvement & certain to realize a good bit of that. Thomas Bryant at $8+m/year is not a player you trade.

There was talk for a while that Houston might want to move Capela, but I haven't read anything like that for many months. I don't right off see a way to get him. Plus, if the luxury tax limit really does go down instead of up, I'm not sure how we'd be able to afford him.

[wall_glizzy]

Everybody wants Ujiri, & everyone will pay top dollar for him. Maybe there's something to draw him here, who knows...

I recall some kind of claim about Ujiri being interested in DC for the increased visibility/access it would give his work with Basketball Without Borders, but it seemed purely speculative (I never saw a source, at least). I'd honestly be pretty surprised if Ujiri jumped ship for anywhere, let alone us. Isn't the rumor that he's intent on bringing Giannis to Toronto in free agency?

[Illmatic12]

Masai Ujiri is a free agent executive in 2021 , isn't he?
I could see a path where the Wizards push to achieve relative respectability next season, then Leonsis feels empowered enough to put that big $$$ offer back on the table and draw Ujiri here to bring us championship-level credibility. One thing worth noting is that Tommy Sheppard was only given a 2yr extension, AND Leonsis was careful to give him the "General Manager" title , leaving "President of Basketball Operations" as a technically vacant seat.. hmmm. Given the relationship with Obama, I believe the door is still open for Masai in 2021 .

If that's the case, then it makes sense that Monumental Basketball is in the mode of establishing our reputation as a respectable franchise in an international market that can acquire and retain talent (not only free agent players, but also in terms of coaching staff, executive personnel and so on). . if they believe that retaining the Latvian Laser at his market value is part of that organizational direction, then they probably should continue with that and not deviate just because a crappy draft pick is being dangled in front of them.

I look at it this way: If this 2yr plan falls flat and we eventually move Beal for a haul, at that point we can ask for all the late first round picks our heart desires. Right now, I'm perfectly fine with giving the new regime another season to flesh out their plan before we start talking about trading our best players for picks.

Everybody wants Ujiri, & everyone will pay top dollar for him. Maybe there's something to draw him here, who knows... There's certainly plenty to draw him to New York City. Or Los Angeles. Maybe he'd like Philly? Or San Francisco? A lot of people like Portland, right? Life is good in Miami, isn't it?

IOW, "Masai Ujiri... here to bring us championship-level credibility" is not a "path." It's not a plan. It's not even an idea. I'm not sure it's close enough to reality even to qualify as a dream.

As to your data points... what would make us think that "President of Basketball Operations" is a "vacant seat," as opposed to a job that no longer exists in the current organization of Monumental. Try to find a "President of..." anything at all in the Monumental org chart; it doesn't exist. Certainly there's no Wizards job above Tommy's. If Joe Blow comes in to run the Wizards, Tommy leaves.

The first sentence of your second para, otoh, makes sense -- I'd say that is exactly what Ted wants to do.

Yet... what in heaven's name would re-signing Bertans, or not re-signing him, have to do with that? Oh, & what makes a "crappy draft pick" btw?

What "2yr plan"? What is "their plan"? What "best players" are you suggesting we'd be trading? What makes a trade "for picks" any different from any other trade?

I’m not gonna derail the trade thread pif, but yes the Ujiri connection was & is very realistic. Woj has confirmed on his podcast that there was mutual interest on both sides but ultimately Toronto didn’t grant Washington permission to make a formal offer (and they were prepared to demand significant compensation which they’d have the power to do) . Furthermore Ujiri confirmed himself in an interview that Pres Obama had made overtures to recruit him to Monumental. If you want to argue then debate with yourself, these are facts.. Monumental will continue to monitor Ujiri’s 2021 situation very closely , I’m just gonna leave it there .

[Illmatic12]

Everybody wants Ujiri, & everyone will pay top dollar for him. Maybe there's something to draw him here, who knows...

I recall some kind of claim about Ujiri being interested in DC for the increased visibility/access it would give his work with Basketball Without Borders, but it seemed purely speculative (I never saw a source, at least). I'd honestly be pretty surprised if Ujiri jumped ship for anywhere, let alone us. Isn't the rumor that he's intent on bringing Giannis to Toronto in free agency?

And what if Giannis extends in Milwaukee for the supermax this summer? At that point what is the guarantee that Ujiri will be interested in staying in Toronto beyond 2021?

[gambitx777]

https://tradenba.com/trades/uJJox1qSQ

Wiz get : Grant Williams, Milton, O'Quinn , Burke, 2020 first (bucks, from Boston.)

Pistons get: Hayward , Z.smith, bolden, 2020 first (Boston) , 2020 second ( Dallas )

76ers get : Rose , Morris , McRae.

Boston get : bertains, IT, drummand. First (OKC , won't convey , 2 seconds future)

Wiz get a decent return on bertains and McRae. They get a look at two young guys and a late first. The wizards cut Burke and O'Quinn . This is all about adding assets

Pistons move on from drummand Morris, and rose get something for them. They get a first and a second , and Smith and bolden. A good infusion of youth to a stagnant team. Hayword gives them a chance to cash out on a decent player on a one year deal on durring a summer where a lot of teams have cap room but not with a lot of free agents on the market!

76ers get Rose and McRae and Morris . Three players that fill what they need most. Scoring, shooting and another ball handler. Those three balance that team and are affordable options this year and next. All it costs them are 4 players they don't play and a few seconds non of which are theirz and of which they have plenty to burn. It's a bit of an over pay but in the situation they are in it's worth it. They can then play the buy out market and maybe bring in a couple more vets they also still have picks to use 3 seconds this year, 2 high ones, to continue tweaking the team.

Boston goes all in. They spend yes but they hedge Their bets, they keep the best pick they have and still get the future second from OKC. They trade 2 firsts and two good young players and Hayward for upgrades. Bertians for Hayward is about even but drummand is a massive upgrade and they don't loose any depth upfront with bertains on that bench or in that starting lineup, the other young wings on Boston can step up.

This is all about Boston and the 76ers going for it while the wiz and the Pistons rebuild.

I posted this to the general trade page.


Sent from my SM-G965U1 using RealGM mobile app

[payitforward]

I’m not gonna derail the trade thread pif, but yes the Ujiri connection was & is very realistic. ... If you want to argue then debate with yourself, these are facts....

You're right; there's nothing to debate at present, & if there were this wouldn't be the place. &, naturally, I'd be just as pleased as you if he did come here!

So, we can let it go. But... before we do...

Spoiler:

I suppose there might be, what, 4 or 5 places he could be next? Stay in Toronto, or else go to one of New York, Los Angeles, San Francisco or here. Maybe one more place I'm not thinking of? Does that seem right?

So, if you have some real money you'd like to really risk on Ujiri becoming the head of Monumental basketball, I'll give you 5-1 odds that he doesn't come here. Let me know if you're interested.

[payitforward]

Everybody wants Ujiri, & everyone will pay top dollar for him. Maybe there's something to draw him here, who knows...

I recall some kind of claim about Ujiri being interested in DC for the increased visibility/access it would give his work with Basketball Without Borders, but it seemed purely speculative (I never saw a source, at least). I'd honestly be pretty surprised if Ujiri jumped ship for anywhere, let alone us. Isn't the rumor that he's intent on bringing Giannis to Toronto in free agency?

And what if Giannis extends in Milwaukee for the supermax this summer? At that point what is the guarantee that Ujiri will be interested in staying in Toronto beyond 2021?

Hey...! I thought you weren't going to debate this!

[Dark Faze]

PIF, just curious, if you were *forced* to try to build to win--what type of trades would you be looking for, assuming we needed to keep Brad and John?

[payitforward]

https://tradenba.com/trades/uJJox1qSQ

Wiz get : Grant Williams, Milton, O'Quinn , Burke, 2020 first (bucks, from Boston.)

Pistons get: Hayward , Z.smith, bolden, 2020 first (Boston) , 2020 second ( Dallas )

76ers get : Rose , Morris , McRae.

Boston get : bertains, IT, drummand. First (OKC , won't convey , 2 seconds future)

Wiz get a decent return on bertains and McRae....

Decent return? Yeah, I'll say! Essentially, we get 2 prospects & a R1 pick for Bertans & McRae.

Can't you find a 5th team to take O'Quinn in return for a R2 pick. Maybe a 6th team to do the same in return for Burke?

You pull this off, gambit, & forget Ujiri -- who needs him!?

[payitforward]

PIF, just curious, if you were *forced* to try to build to win--what type of trades would you be looking for, assuming we needed to keep Brad and John?

Great question. I wish I had a great answer!

I assume that by "win," you don't mean "win everything," & you don't mean "win eventually" (i.e. rebuild). Instead, you mean win at a "respectable" level -- i.e. make the playoffs, hopefully not in the 8th spot -- & you mean "win now" (i.e. ASAP).

Concretely, that might translate to 1) try to sneak into the #8 position this year, & 2) then get in next year at a higher spot.

Is that what you mean? If so, I don't think there are any trades, none I can think of anyway, that would significantly boost our chances to get into the playoffs this year. I think to get there we have to rely on a) Brooklyn &/or Orlando sinking, & b) the Bulls & Pistons doing the same (they don't have to sink as far, obviously), while c) we somehow play a significant bit better than we have to date.

I don't see an immediate trade that would help us play significantly better than we have to date. Am I missing something?

Trading for Drummond would be suicidal -- we can't retain him, so even if he gave us a boost this season, he'd make it harder not easier for us to make the playoffs next year.

So forget this year. But, I don't have a good answer for next year either. If John plays as well as we all hope, of course we'll be better anyway. If the young kids develop (esp. Rui) that will push us further. If we do well in the draft, ditto. But those aren't trades.

Our problem is simple. We have no trade assets to speak of. & because by and large GMs try to get as good as they give when they make trades, the most likely way we could improve via a trade is long-term -- by trading a player for a pick & doing well with that pick.

But, that's not an answer to your question, is it?

The only thing that seems even vaguely conceivable would be to find someone willing to trade someone pretty good now for Hachimura in the hope that Rui will develop to be really really good.

But... that's off the top of my head & pretty vague. I can't think of a genuinely possible version of that -- can you?