Lauri Markkanen Discussion Thread

[HoopsterJones]

We need better player development focused assistants and a much better coach overall. Lauri’s potential is definitely not being maximized. That being said, he needs to work on his ball handling skills and post moves more. He needs to move more off the ball rather than sit in the corner.

[dougthonus]

See but that's a different discussion and I agree with you. The pattern shows fatigue/injured/banged up Lauri is a bad player. And if Lauri is consistently injured then yes that's a MAJOR cause for concern. I would hope it's something he can get away from or get used to it but if past performance is an indication of how he will perform while banged up, that's damning for him.

But at the beginning of the season he wasn't injured. He wasn't skipping practices. He wasn't missing games. Any injury he was dealing with was the type that people just play through and the type that almost always exist. Same with fatigue. Unless he has an underlying heart condition (also super scary and not to be taken lightly) the fact that he just got tired playing a lot of games is something that he will continue to have to do that.

BUT I dissagree lot of guys have patterns like that. Normal/healthy play does have ups and downs (like Lauri did in his second season) and that's when the averages are accurate. Not many players go through distinct cuts in levels of play over extended periods of time. You can see the ups and downs for both the "bad" play at the beginning and "good" play at the end. The ups and downs for the bad play average at 30%. The ups and downs of good play average at 40%. Give me an example of someone who has gone through this over two months (without injuries) and I'll drop it but I am 90% sure you can't.

Here are Nikola Mirotic's numbers as a Bull. Worth noting there are many parallels between the two players:
Stretch 4s
Similar skill sets
Was supposed to become an elite shooter from the 4 but had a grand total of one elite year from behind the arc and ended around 35% for his career in the NBA.

Every single season Mirotic was with the Bulls he exhibited the pattern you are discussing. Every single one.

Nikola Mirotic 2015

Look at splits for first 3 months, he's about 40% on ~90 attempts, then goes 26% for the next 3 months over 175 attempts and finishes up the last month at 34% on 50 attempts.

Nikola MIrotic 2016

Starts the season around 31% on 150ish attempts, then goes around 43% the next 3 months on 250ish attempts.

Nikola Mirotic 2017

Starts season around 30% for 3 months on around 200 attempts. 35% in feb on 40 attempts, then 40% at end of season on 120 attempts.

Nikola MIrotic 2018

Probably the least big swings, but still had them, starts read hot at 47% in dec, 38% in jan, then massively cools off to 28% in Feb, 34% in March, and finishes up hot at 42% in April.

[weneeda2guard]

Lauri does need more development but it was enough shown under fred to give us the impression he was maybe not a all star but at least a fringe all star caliber double double kind of player.

I dont think its coincidental that boylen comes in with an entire off season and training camp and it seems everyone regressed. The system is not beneficial to the players and lauri probably is seeing his nba career going down the drain he already has a deal upcoming and as of now there is not big dollars waiting for him. He wants out because his career depends on it

[SearsTower]

Just fire Boylen already. Sweet fancy Moses...

[bledredwine]

If we traded Lauri before he fulfilled his potential, I’d be SO pissed. But if he’s leaving and it needs to be done ASAP? Ok.

[dougthonus]

If we traded Lauri before he fulfilled his potential, I’d be SO pissed. But if he’s leaving and it needs to be done ASAP? Ok.

His value is crap right now, so I doubt you'll get anything meaningful this summer for him in a trade. He only has one more year under his contract, and then the trading team would get RFA rights which would be valuable for a team over the cap, but he needs to prove he's worthy of a greater than MLE deal for that to even matter.

[bledredwine]

If we traded Lauri before he fulfilled his potential, I’d be SO pissed. But if he’s leaving and it needs to be done ASAP? Ok.

His value is crap right now, so I doubt you'll get anything meaningful this summer for him in a trade. He only has one more year under his contract, and then the trading team would get RFA rights which would be valuable for a team over the cap, but he needs to prove he's worthy of a greater than MLE deal for that to even matter.

Got it. Yeah- I definitely wouldn’t trade him now. I think that next season, he’ll be a better player.

If not? What a waste. I really have faith in Lauri’s potential.

[drosereturn]

no chance. wendell plays defense and is competent offensively. lauri is competent offensively and plays little defense. plus wendell has an extra year on a cheap deal

I agree with everything you said but I highly doubt the rest of the league shares that sentiment of Wendell being more valued than Lauri. Wendell hasn’t even proven he can stay on the court in his first two years. All of what you said is fine and quite possibly true what does it all mean if you can’t stay on the court

lauri hasn't been particularly healthy either

difference is lauri has proven he has an all star potential. Carter has absolutely shown nothing and is being overvalued by Bulls fans.

[PaKii94]

See but that's a different discussion and I agree with you. The pattern shows fatigue/injured/banged up Lauri is a bad player. And if Lauri is consistently injured then yes that's a MAJOR cause for concern. I would hope it's something he can get away from or get used to it but if past performance is an indication of how he will perform while banged up, that's damning for him.

But at the beginning of the season he wasn't injured. He wasn't skipping practices. He wasn't missing games. Any injury he was dealing with was the type that people just play through and the type that almost always exist. Same with fatigue. Unless he has an underlying heart condition (also super scary and not to be taken lightly) the fact that he just got tired playing a lot of games is something that he will continue to have to do that.

BUT I dissagree lot of guys have patterns like that. Normal/healthy play does have ups and downs (like Lauri did in his second season) and that's when the averages are accurate. Not many players go through distinct cuts in levels of play over extended periods of time. You can see the ups and downs for both the "bad" play at the beginning and "good" play at the end. The ups and downs for the bad play average at 30%. The ups and downs of good play average at 40%. Give me an example of someone who has gone through this over two months (without injuries) and I'll drop it but I am 90% sure you can't.

Here are Nikola Mirotic's numbers as a Bull. Worth noting there are many parallels between the two players:
Stretch 4s
Similar skill sets
Was supposed to become an elite shooter from the 4 but had a grand total of one elite year from behind the arc and ended around 35% for his career in the NBA.

Every single season Mirotic was with the Bulls he exhibited the pattern you are discussing. Every single one.

Nikola Mirotic 2015

Look at splits for first 3 months, he's about 40% on ~90 attempts, then goes 26% for the next 3 months over 175 attempts and finishes up the last month at 34% on 50 attempts.

Nikola MIrotic 2016

Starts the season around 31% on 150ish attempts, then goes around 43% the next 3 months on 250ish attempts.

Nikola Mirotic 2017

Starts season around 30% for 3 months on around 200 attempts. 35% in feb on 40 attempts, then 40% at end of season on 120 attempts.

Nikola MIrotic 2018

Probably the least big swings, but still had them, starts read hot at 47% in dec, 38% in jan, then massively cools off to 28% in Feb, 34% in March, and finishes up hot at 42% in April.

I applaud the effort but Niko is actually a bad example and doesn't fit the description. Also you're clustering it by volume and not by time. Injuries affect by time not volume. Niko was just naturally a volatile player. He had his ups and downs also but they were period swings not sustained bad play followed by sustained good play. The closest Lauri has come to him is his rookie season (where I said he was a volatile player lol). It's pretty easy to see once you look at the graphs. I'll share those later when I am back at my computer.

[dice]

I agree with everything you said but I highly doubt the rest of the league shares that sentiment of Wendell being more valued than Lauri. Wendell hasn’t even proven he can stay on the court in his first two years. All of what you said is fine and quite possibly true what does it all mean if you can’t stay on the court

lauri hasn't been particularly healthy either

difference is lauri has proven he has an all star potential. Carter has absolutely shown nothing and is being overvalued by Bulls fans.

we know that carter can play defense. and could be competent offensively. lauri, on the other hand, is not particularly good at ANYTHING. i think he has ability as a shooter, but he has been only average from the 3 pt line and doesn't get to the FT line enough to make teams pay for his strong FT shooting

believe it or not, carter may have more all star potential than lauri right now. and it's precisely BECAUSE he hasn't had the opportunity. lauri has been on the floor more than double what WCJ has thus far in their young careers and hasn't improved much. he hasn't realized his early show of potential. doesn't mean he won't, but it's looking increasingly unlikely. WCJ has not only been more valuable as an all-around player, but has more room to evolve

[pipfan]

We have to count on him developing, or at least becoming a steady 3rd option. We need his talent-and he does provide spacing. The 3 pt % is not great, but teams are aware of him.

Carter and Lauri developing is our current greatest hope to be a 2nd round team

[pwrshft99]

Just fire Boylen already. Sweet fancy Moses...

No front office should survive long enough to pick their SIXTH head coach. The problem is further up the command chain.

None of their previous coaches are in the league anymore. To make it worse?? They were all 'their guys'

[RedBulls23]

Gotta love when people continue to stick up for this franchise after they continue to show they don't know what they are doing.

All the young players on this roster have short comings, there's no doubt about that. I'll also will notb be 1 bit surprised if I see guys like Lauri, Zach, WCJ etc thrive if they ever get to a team thats run competently, knows how to develop their players, and hasn't created a toxic losing culture.

It’s hard to pass the buck on Lauri when he played much better for the exact same franchise and coach, and given how other young players are improving or doing just fine ( Hutch, WCJ and obviously Lavine).

Multiple things can be true at once. The franchise and coach can be a mess and Lauri can be on Lauri.

I don't agree that outside of LaVine the other 2 have really developed this past year.

Those players are just doing what they did last season, which is play really good defense.

Offensively Hutch is doing what he did mostly on the open court and as a slasher. He showed this ability last season.

As for WCJ, he's actually been neutered in this offense. They have tried to use him mostly as a roll man, and hardly utilize his offensive skill set beyond that which coming into the league he had scouts saying how skilled he was where he had the potential to not only play out of the post, but to also develop a jumper/3 ball.

Like I've said, Lauri 100% has his short comings as an offensive player (and on defense, obviously), but he has not been set up to play to his strengths on offense. I never thought Lauri had top 15-20 potential, but he's definitely being mismanaged this season there's no doubt about that.

[Senor Chang]

I want to see Lauri after a full offseason of NOT playing for team Finland. These international commitments can really burn guys out halfway through the following NBA season. I think he will have a come-back season next year. No way i let him go so easily right now.

[Bullstuff]

Lauri didn't play for the national team last summer and only a few games the summer before that (with Jim Boylen present btw).

[Senor Chang]

Lauri didn't play for the national team last summer and only a few games the summer before that (with Jim Boylen present btw).

I stand corrected. Whatever he's doing that is causing his body to break down i hope he figures that out this offseason.

[drosereturn]

If we traded Lauri before he fulfilled his potential, I’d be SO pissed. But if he’s leaving and it needs to be done ASAP? Ok.

Now that I know the behind story, I actually think Lauri would have been an allstar this season had Fred remained as the coach since Lauri would be the main beneficiary of a motion offense. Lauri's sudden major regression after his first game made no sense whatsoever since he wasnt injured or fatigued.
Basically after shooting 25 times his 1st game, he probably got yelled at for not following gameplan and in retaliation was forced to work with 10 shots while his mid range got banned. Even though he was ass in November, I dont even view it as a slump unlike Lavine who sucks after having a great game. Anyone in Boylen's doghouse will fail regardless of talent level.
Get rid of his november stats and probably his efficiency numbers are all career highs good enough for borderline star.

Long story short, its either team Lauri or Boylen. If Boylen remains next yr, Bull will be forced to trade and start over rebuilding.

[Mulhollanddrive]

If Markannen wants $80-100m in July do you sign him or trade him?

[Dez]

If Markannen wants $80-100m in July do you sign him or trade him?

You don't do anything because he's got another season on his rookie contract before RFA.

[Indomitable]

If we traded Lauri before he fulfilled his potential, I’d be SO pissed. But if he’s leaving and it needs to be done ASAP? Ok.

His value is crap right now, so I doubt you'll get anything meaningful this summer for him in a trade. He only has one more year under his contract, and then the trading team would get RFA rights which would be valuable for a team over the cap, but he needs to prove he's worthy of a greater than MLE deal for that to even matter.

Got it. Yeah- I definitely wouldn’t trade him now. I think that next season, he’ll be a better player.

If not? What a waste. I really have faith in Lauri’s potential.

Why?