Official Trade Thread -- Part XXXVIII

[SUPERBALLMAN]

Addition by subtraction (IT)

Napier is major upgrade over IT, may even be upgrade on Ish...

Robinson is 6 yrs younger than McRae.

Let me add another thing... Wall is coming back - do you want him to play on back to backs and 38min/gm. No, I didn't think so...

Having BOTH Ish Smith and Napier is cheap insurance.

Excellent point

If Shabazz plays well and fits in, I'd love to keep him next year especially if it's on a vet min deal. What if Wall has a set back? If nothing else well probably want to keep his minutes as low as possible. It would be great to have Ish and Shabazz to fall back on.

[wall_glizzy]

FWIW, ever since the NY game on December 28th...

This is actually pretty interesting - wild to think that assuming Bonga's numbers held as he scaled up into consistent starter minutes (and starter-level competition), if he took three more three-pointers a game he'd only need to make one to approximately match Grant's very respectable 40% on five attempts a game. I'm obviously dubious about things scaling that cleanly, but it's pretty cool regardless. I remain really excited about Bonga. If he gains about fifty pounds, entirely in his lower body, perhaps he can be our PJ Tucker!

That said, I'll hold fast on the claims about rim protection (for which I don't love blocks as a proxy) and overall offensive ability - maybe "versatility" is a better word. There's a significant difference between the effect Bonga and Grant have in defending shots at the rim; not only do opponents shoot worse than their averages within six feet against Grant (-3% for Grant, +2% for Bonga), but such shots are a significantly less common occurrence with him on the floor than they are with, e.g., Millsap, who plays a pretty analogous role on defense. I watch quite a bit of the Nuggets, but full disclosure I wouldn't be 100% confident in claiming that this is an actual, Gobert-like deterrence effect and not semi-random chance - it's probably a bit of both.

On the other hand, you make a great point about age - both guys have enviable skillsets, and in terms of pure comparative value I think they're each a better fit for the timeline, needs, cap situation, etc. of their current teams.

[gambitx777]

I personally really feel MOs home is gonna be big long 4 that can shoot a bit . Dirk lite I don't think you need him at the 5 so Bryant and AP. Take a bouncy rebounder with a pick imo. And move on but hell have to much depth is a good problem to have imo

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[nate33]

I personally really feel MOs home is gonna be big long 4 that can shoot a bit . Dirk lite I don't think you need him at the 5 so Bryant and AP. Take a bouncy rebounder with a pick imo. And move on but hell have to much depth is a good problem to have imo

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I don't think Wagner can guard the 4's in today's game. And his ability to stretch out the floor will be less useful if he's only drawing out the opponent's 4 and not their 5.

I'm actually really high on Wagner. I like his quick feet and his defensive activity, even if he is a bit foul prone and alligator armed. I think he's ultimately going to pan out to be a more effective player than Bryant. I certainly wouldn't play him out of position just to find room for Pasecniks. At age 24, I'm not to optimistic that Pasecniks is going to pan out to be much more than a 3rd string center.

[payitforward]

Excellent point

I don't know about excellent, but both Smith & Napier are pretty good points....

Points... I get it. But maybe I've been overly negative - or overly ambivalent really - about the deals. What Tommy's done over and over already is get something for nothing that he was going to use. We got these 2 players for 2 players that they probably weren't going to keep - so effectively more than half the roster was gotten without giving up anything. That's a good thing. Works those nooks and crannies; EG worked the crooks and grannies.

Btw, I hear Napier actually has a good defensive rep. Going from IT to him should be a refreshing change.

Right. & he's gotten a whole lot for nothing. Main point being that he has had nothing to work with.

I'm doubtful about Jerome Robinson -- to say the least. But, what was he going to get for IT after all?

Bryant, Bertans, Bonga, Wagner, Payton, Pasecniks, Williams, Mathews, Napier & Robinson -- 10 guys plus a R2 pick. Cost? Rights to 1 R2 picked guy. Wow.

[payitforward]

https://www.theringer.com/nba/2020/2/6/21127528/nba-trade-deadline-grades

Washington Wizards

In: Shabazz Napier, Jerome Robinson
Out: Jordan McRae, Isaiah Thomas, rights to Issuf Sanon

Jerome Robinson never looked like a quality rotation player with the Clippers, but gambling on former lottery picks in only their second season is exactly the type of thing Washington should be doing. Hanging on to Davis Bertans, who has suddenly become one of the most prolific 3-point shooters in league history, wasn’t all that surprising given Washington’s reported sky-high asking price of two first-round picks. After years of being the sucker at the trade-deadline table under the old regime, it’s refreshing to see the Wizards stick to a plan.

Grade: A-

[payitforward]

Basically, all the analyst have given us an A or A- for both our deadline trades.

Been a while since we saw something that, huh?

[payitforward]

I personally really feel MOs home is gonna be big long 4 that can shoot a bit . Dirk lite I don't think you need him at the 5 so Bryant and AP. Take a bouncy rebounder with a pick imo. And move on but hell have to much depth is a good problem to have imo

Sent from my SM-G965U1 using RealGM mobile app

I don't think Wagner can guard the 4's in today's game. And his ability to stretch out the floor will be less useful if he's only drawing out the opponent's 4 and not their 5.

I'm actually really high on Wagner. I like his quick feet and his defensive activity, even if he is a bit foul prone and alligator armed. I think he's ultimately going to pan out to be a more effective player than Bryant. I certainly wouldn't play him out of position just to find room for Pasecniks. At age 24, I'm not to optimistic that Pasecniks is going to pan out to be much more than a 3rd string center.

I continue to be amazed at the precipitous drop in your view of Thomas Bryant. But, I've now mentioned the fact at least once too often, so... no more!

Mo began the year on an incredible hot streak shooting the 3 -- after a couple of months he was still over 50%, and on a fair number of attempts too. By now, however, he's back down to 37.9%. I'd like to think that's sustainable, & if so it places him well above average for an NBA big. & that's on @ 75% more attempts than an average big. Plus, he is also shooting 2 point shots & FTs extremely well.

Thus, Mo is posting is posting a 68.4% TS% -- that's better than Bryant's 64.3% (also very good!) & it's on slightly more attempts. The result is that on the season (including the hot start -- & Bryant's slow start), Mo is scoring just over 2 more points per 40 minutes on only @ 3/4 of a possession more.

That's good -- obviously! So... is Mo a better offensive player than Thomas? No, he's not. In fact, he's not as good as Bryant. Why? Because, in those 40 minutes of work to score, he turns the ball over 1.6 more times than Bryant. Those possessions count too. Factoring in both guys' turnovers, Mo is at 55.4% TS% & Bryant at 56.4%. Pretty close, but Bryant is a bit more effective as a scorer.

Of course, assists should count as part of offensive effectiveness as well: an average Center gets @ 3 per 40 minutes. Mo gets 2.5; Bryant gets 3.5.

OTOH, we need to give Mo some credit for helping w/ spacing -- maybe that counteracts the fewer assists to some degree, or even entirely.

Of course, it's absolutely the case that Bryant is still working on learning defense. But, is Mo much better? nate cites his "quick feet and his defensive activity."

I don't know about those quick feet, to tell the truth. Mo Wagner commits almost 7.5 fouls per 40 minutes. Pretty often that indicates a player who is out of position. Committing a lot of fouls doesn't actually help with team defense; it hurts team defense.

Bryant commits less than half the number of fouls per 40 minutes that Mo does. He also blocks over 20% more shots. At the same time, Mo does get almost .85 more steals in that same 40 minutes.

These guys are the same age -- Thomas Bryant is only 3 months younger than Mo Wagner. Who knows how they'll develop over time. The way Thomas Bryant played last year was like a bolt of lightning! Mo has never played anywhere near that well -- he wasn't close even in college!

All the same, I've been as positively surprised by how well Wagner has played this season as I was by Bryant's work last season!

I mean... last year Mo shot the 3 at 28.6%; this year it's almost 38%.
Last year he shot the 2 at 52%; this year almost 69%.
Last year he was a lousy rebounder; this year, he's getting 53% more boards! Including twice as many offensive boards!
He's getting 40% more steals this year!

Wagner has to be one of the biggest positive surprises of any second year player in the league this year (along w/ Bonga, come to think of it). As Bryant was last year.

What a pair of moves that was by Tommy -- to pick up Thomas Bryant, & then Mo Wagner & Isaac Bonga (plus a R2 pick) -- all that for absolutely nothing!

[nate33]

I personally really feel MOs home is gonna be big long 4 that can shoot a bit . Dirk lite I don't think you need him at the 5 so Bryant and AP. Take a bouncy rebounder with a pick imo. And move on but hell have to much depth is a good problem to have imo

Sent from my SM-G965U1 using RealGM mobile app

I don't think Wagner can guard the 4's in today's game. And his ability to stretch out the floor will be less useful if he's only drawing out the opponent's 4 and not their 5.

I'm actually really high on Wagner. I like his quick feet and his defensive activity, even if he is a bit foul prone and alligator armed. I think he's ultimately going to pan out to be a more effective player than Bryant. I certainly wouldn't play him out of position just to find room for Pasecniks. At age 24, I'm not to optimistic that Pasecniks is going to pan out to be much more than a 3rd string center.

I continue to be amazed at the precipitous drop in your view of Thomas Bryant. But, I've now mentioned the fact at least once too often, so... no more!

Mo began the year on an incredible hot streak shooting the 3 -- after a couple of months he was still over 50%, and on a fair number of attempts too. By now, however, he's back down to 37.9%. I'd like to think that's sustainable, & if so it places him well above average for an NBA big. & that's on @ 75% more attempts than an average big. Plus, he is also shooting 2 point shots & FTs extremely well.

Thus, Mo is posting is posting a 68.4% TS% -- that's better than Bryant's 64.3% (also very good!) & it's on slightly more attempts. The result is that on the season (including the hot start -- & Bryant's slow start), Mo is scoring just over 2 more points per 40 minutes on only @ 3/4 of a possession more.

That's good -- obviously! So... is Mo a better offensive player than Thomas? No, he's not. In fact, he's not as good as Bryant. Why? Because, in those 40 minutes of work to score, he turns the ball over 1.6 more times than Bryant. Those possessions count too. Factoring in both guys' turnovers, Mo is at 55.4% TS% & Bryant at 56.4%. Pretty close, but Bryant is a bit more effective as a scorer.

Of course, assists should count as part of offensive effectiveness as well: an average Center gets @ 3 per 40 minutes. Mo gets 2.5; Bryant gets 3.5.

OTOH, we need to give Mo some credit for helping w/ spacing -- maybe that counteracts the fewer assists to some degree, or even entirely.

Of course, it's absolutely the case that Bryant is still working on learning defense. But, is Mo much better? nate cites his "quick feet and his defensive activity."

I don't know about those quick feet, to tell the truth. Mo Wagner commits almost 7.5 fouls per 40 minutes. Pretty often that indicates a player who is out of position. Committing a lot of fouls doesn't actually help with team defense; it hurts team defense.

Bryant commits less than half the number of fouls per 40 minutes that Mo does. He also blocks over 20% more shots. At the same time, Mo does get almost .85 more steals in that same 40 minutes.

These guys are the same age -- Thomas Bryant is only 3 months younger than Mo Wagner. Who knows how they'll develop over time. The way Thomas Bryant played last year was like a bolt of lightning! Mo has never played anywhere near that well -- he wasn't close even in college!

All the same, I've been as positively surprised by how well Wagner has played this season as I was by Bryant's work last season!

I mean... last year Mo shot the 3 at 28.6%; this year it's almost 38%.
Last year he shot the 2 at 52%; this year almost 69%.
Last year he was a lousy rebounder; this year, he's getting 53% more boards! Including twice as many offensive boards!
He's getting 40% more steals this year!

Wagner has to be one of the biggest positive surprises of any second year player in the league this year (along w/ Bonga, come to think of it). As Bryant was last year.

What a pair of moves that was by Tommy -- to pick up Thomas Bryant, & then Mo Wagner & Isaac Bonga (plus a R2 pick) -- all that for absolutely nothing!

I don't really disagree with any of this. I like Bryant, and I like Wagner, and both guys have flaws. I'll even agree with you that, statistically, Bryant probably comes out on top, particularly when you factor that he is going up against starters.

But stats only tell you what they've done, not what they will do. My gut feel is that Wagner has a higher ceiling and will ultimately be better at helping his team win basketball games. I just like the way he moves on the court better. I think he is lighter on his feet when he gets forced into a switch, and I think he's a bit quicker to rotate on help defense. Ultimately, I just think he has better instincts. Also, I like his frame better. Bryant has filled out but is still weak in the core. I think Wagner is already a bit stronger than Bryant, and he has more potential to fill out his frame better.

We'll know a bit more in the next month or two with Wagner getting more of a role while Bryant is hurt. I really want to see if Wagner can cut back on the fouls if he is put in a starting role where he knows he can't just squander fouls so easily.

[payitforward]

You know what would be great? -- If they each developed to the best version of what we've seen of them! Now, that would be great!!

Rinse & repeat for Brown, Bonga, Mathews, Rui and what the hell Admiral & Jerome Robinson too!

[tontoz]

I see Mo as a good backup 4. He can't defend the rim so i don't like him at C.

Bryant can't defend the rim either which is a pretty big problem. We are dead last in defensive efficiency and tied for last in rebounding rate.

[The Consiglieri]

Isn’t it fascinating how the Zards now have three players from the first round of the 2018 draft. It’s as if they traded down and got multiple picks…as many here would have liked to see them do.

There’s the 13th pick (Robinson), who TS and the Zards were apparently high on before the draft; there’s the 15th pick (Brown), who none of us had on our radar screen but is really turning out to be a very nice NBA player; and then there’s the 25th pick (Wagner), who 2-3 people on this board wanted the Zards to draft.

And, of course, there’s Bonga, the 39th pick in that same draft.

That’s four potential rotation players from the same draft. (I know, the keyword is "potential".) The Zards recently-beefed up development team, which has done a good job thus far with Brown, Bryant, Wagner and Bonga, has its hands full, especially when you add in Rui, Robinson, Mathews, and a likely lottery pick this year.

At least they are finally following the PIF formula for success...collect young players and coach'em up. Got to say it's not only different but also kinda exciting and intriguing.

Nice little write up from the ringer on him:

link: https://nbadraft.theringer.com/2018/

"...Fluid athlete who changes directions quickly while staying under control.
Tight ball handler with a wide array of moves; he especially likes using hesitations, fakes, and in-out dribbles when he’s going left.
Uses either hand to finish at the rim with touch, and he occasionally slams down monster dunks when he has space.
Great spot-up shooter with a quick release, and he’s just as potent on pull-ups. Has potential shooting off screens and handoffs.
Serviceable passer for a wing.
Solid defender who can defend both guard spots, though he must get stronger..."

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Mo Bamba has been very slow to develop.

Perhaps in the off season the Wizards can pursue him. He's got to be able to play pretty good defense given the opportunity.

[tontoz]

Rough week for IT. We traded hiim 2 days before his bobblehead night apparently. Then he goes to the Clippers thinking he might have a chance for a ring. Then he gets waived a day before his birthday.

I am glad we traded him and was definitely tired of watching him but cant help but feel a little sympathy for him. He must be pretty bummed right now. Just think about how much that injury in Boston cost him.

[awolfinwater]

You know what would be great? -- If they each developed to the best version of what we've seen of them! Now, that would be great!!

Rinse & repeat for Brown, Bonga, Mathews, Rui and what the hell Admiral & Jerome Robinson too!

This is one of the main takeaways with the new regime. By observing the moves of the front office over the last twelve months, we can see the effort in maximizing hits over having a high batting average.

They are enabling this strategy through a focus on player development. The off-season front office realignment of Sashi Brown, Daniel Medina, and John Thompson III combined with the g-league running the same offense as the Wizards show they are bought into this strategy.

I am very high on the Wizards future prospects because the owner down to the g-league are aligned on building processes to develop our players. From reading Fred Katz, Tommy Shepard seems to be the perfect GM to execute because he is "easy and fair", resulting in our ability to pick up these prospects on the dirt cheap.

Finally, having these prospects is making this team so enjoyable to watch! All of these prospects are getting better right before our eyes. So much fun rooting for this squad.





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[payitforward]

Except that "maximizing hits" is the same thing as "a high batting average" - - I agree with you 100% (& think you may really mean emphasizing a high batting average over a few home runs?).

It's fun to be a Wizards fan again!

[awolfinwater]

Except that "maximizing hits" is the same thing as "a high batting average" - - I agree with you 100% (& think you may really mean emphasizing a high batting average over a few home runs?).

It's fun to be a Wizards fan again!

Valid critique. I was gonna go with something about bullets in a gun but wanted to be kid friendly .

Let's change it to maximizing at-bats. We are doing it through accumulating draft capital and leveraging our g-league affiliate. We may only have 15 active roster spots on the wiz but double that with high utilization of the go-go.

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[nate33]

Rough week for IT. We traded hiim 2 days before his bobblehead night apparently. Then he goes to the Clippers thinking he might have a chance for a ring. Then he gets waived a day before his birthday.

I am glad we traded him and was definitely tired of watching him but cant help but feel a little sympathy for him. He must be pretty bummed right now. Just think about how much that injury in Boston cost him.

I wonder how prepared IT was for all this.

It wouldn't surprise me if management pulled him aside a few weeks ago and told him that they're shopping him and plan to move him at the Trade Deadline (or cut him if he can't be moved), but in the meantime they would continue to start him to give him a chance to showcase himself.

[DCZards]

Rough week for IT. We traded hiim 2 days before his bobblehead night apparently. Then he goes to the Clippers thinking he might have a chance for a ring. Then he gets waived a day before his birthday.

I am glad we traded him and was definitely tired of watching him but cant help but feel a little sympathy for him. He must be pretty bummed right now. Just think about how much that injury in Boston cost him.

On the day the Zards traded IT, it was reported that the Clippers were going to waive him. So I don't think that part came as a surprise to IT.

Like you, I feel for IT given that just three short years ago he was a all-star and all-nba player...and the trajectory of his career has gone rapidly down since then.

[Meliorus]

I personally really feel MOs home is gonna be big long 4 that can shoot a bit . Dirk lite I don't think you need him at the 5 so Bryant and AP. Take a bouncy rebounder with a pick imo. And move on but hell have to much depth is a good problem to have imo

Sent from my SM-G965U1 using RealGM mobile app

I don't think Wagner can guard the 4's in today's game. And his ability to stretch out the floor will be less useful if he's only drawing out the opponent's 4 and not their 5.

I'm actually really high on Wagner. I like his quick feet and his defensive activity, even if he is a bit foul prone and alligator armed. I think he's ultimately going to pan out to be a more effective player than Bryant. I certainly wouldn't play him out of position just to find room for Pasecniks. At age 24, I'm not to optimistic that Pasecniks is going to pan out to be much more than a 3rd string center.

I continue to be amazed at the precipitous drop in your view of Thomas Bryant. But, I've now mentioned the fact at least once too often, so... no more!

Mo began the year on an incredible hot streak shooting the 3 -- after a couple of months he was still over 50%, and on a fair number of attempts too. By now, however, he's back down to 37.9%. I'd like to think that's sustainable, & if so it places him well above average for an NBA big. & that's on @ 75% more attempts than an average big. Plus, he is also shooting 2 point shots & FTs extremely well.

Thus, Mo is posting is posting a 68.4% TS% -- that's better than Bryant's 64.3% (also very good!) & it's on slightly more attempts. The result is that on the season (including the hot start -- & Bryant's slow start), Mo is scoring just over 2 more points per 40 minutes on only @ 3/4 of a possession more.

That's good -- obviously! So... is Mo a better offensive player than Thomas? No, he's not. In fact, he's not as good as Bryant. Why? Because, in those 40 minutes of work to score, he turns the ball over 1.6 more times than Bryant. Those possessions count too. Factoring in both guys' turnovers, Mo is at 55.4% TS% & Bryant at 56.4%. Pretty close, but Bryant is a bit more effective as a scorer.

Of course, assists should count as part of offensive effectiveness as well: an average Center gets @ 3 per 40 minutes. Mo gets 2.5; Bryant gets 3.5.

OTOH, we need to give Mo some credit for helping w/ spacing -- maybe that counteracts the fewer assists to some degree, or even entirely.

Of course, it's absolutely the case that Bryant is still working on learning defense. But, is Mo much better? nate cites his "quick feet and his defensive activity."

I don't know about those quick feet, to tell the truth. Mo Wagner commits almost 7.5 fouls per 40 minutes. Pretty often that indicates a player who is out of position. Committing a lot of fouls doesn't actually help with team defense; it hurts team defense.

Bryant commits less than half the number of fouls per 40 minutes that Mo does. He also blocks over 20% more shots. At the same time, Mo does get almost .85 more steals in that same 40 minutes.

These guys are the same age -- Thomas Bryant is only 3 months younger than Mo Wagner. Who knows how they'll develop over time. The way Thomas Bryant played last year was like a bolt of lightning! Mo has never played anywhere near that well -- he wasn't close even in college!

All the same, I've been as positively surprised by how well Wagner has played this season as I was by Bryant's work last season!

I mean... last year Mo shot the 3 at 28.6%; this year it's almost 38%.
Last year he shot the 2 at 52%; this year almost 69%.
Last year he was a lousy rebounder; this year, he's getting 53% more boards! Including twice as many offensive boards!
He's getting 40% more steals this year!

Wagner has to be one of the biggest positive surprises of any second year player in the league this year (along w/ Bonga, come to think of it). As Bryant was last year.

What a pair of moves that was by Tommy -- to pick up Thomas Bryant, & then Mo Wagner & Isaac Bonga (plus a R2 pick) -- all that for absolutely nothing!

Center is the most important position for defense, and both Wagner and Bryant are bad, so what's the point of keeping either. Are all-offense centers worth anything? Or will we be stuck as a bottom 5 defense forever?