Political Roundtable Part XXVII

[dckingsfan]

Right now I don't think any D is going to beat Trump given the economy and given the war between moderates and progressives.

Don't think 2020 is our year

I'm somewhat pessimistic, too. I still suggest that the only chance is Warren should Bernie's supporters back her at some point but I'm not convinced that's close to a sure thing, either.

Zero chance of that - his supporters are framing her as a comparatist war monger...

I do think this is an area where moderates are eventually going to have to figure out ways they can bend, though.

Agreed, because the progressives are in the "time for a revolution" mode and they just aren't going to bend right now...

[dckingsfan]

Bernie is the only candidate who can beat Trump

Even the worst of the Democratic candidates can beat Trump if people turn out and fully support them. So this Bernie is the only one that can one rhetoric seems to be just a bargaining chip from the far left of the party as a threat to sit out. Obviously people like yourself excluded. All this comes with the heavy caveat that Republicans will cheat to win the election so it may not even matter who the candidate is.

what is interesting on this (or sad) is that I am interacting with both moderates and progressives that are now saying they aren't going to vote for Bernie or a moderate respectively.

So, I don't think we can put this on progressives only. Both can't see a path forward for the other group. I do think this inevitably leads to a split of some kind - I just can't wrap my head around what that will look like.

[Kanyewest]

Right now I don't think any D is going to beat Trump given the economy and given the war between moderates and progressives.

Don't think 2020 is our year

I think it could be the Democratic year simply from using the mobilization that was used in the 2018 election which had very high turnout. I personally know more people who have become more actively politically than the 2016 election. That being said, if complacency sets in like in 2016, then it opens the probability for Trump who has some historical things going for him such as low unemployment rates (although that didn't help Hillary inheriting Obama's economy)

[I_Like_Dirt]

Zero chance of that - his supporters are framing her as a comparatist war monger...

You're probably right. This has always been my biggest frustration with Bernie. He's his own worst enemy. Not that you can put everything about his supporters on him specifically because he tends to be more reasonable for the most part but he's also well aware of the dynamics at play and isn't really interested in actually playing reasonable here. He wants to be the one to push his agenda so bad that it's going to cost him a chance to live to see some of it actually attempted to be applied.

Agreed, because the progressives are in the "time for a revolution" mode and they just aren't going to bend right now...

I think they're both in not-going-to-bend mode. I'm a little surprised by it though it does make sense. A lot of the "moderates" aren't really interested in the change that progressive policies represent and have this idea that there won't be as much change if they do nothing. The amount that see Trump as a better alternative is startling. They talk the game about flexibility but when faced with being the ones who have to bend, they simply aren't interested at all.

Warren's supporters seem to be the most flexible, which is where I draw some of the conclusions that she'd have the best chance. It's hurting her right now, though, as Bernie's supporters are branding her as alt right and moderates seem to view her the same way they view Bernie.

[Pointgod]

I don't know about swing state but the rust belt states that Trump surprisingly won are all hardcore pro-union and that is Bernie's core constituency. Trump only won over the ex-union guys because the Dems abandoned them. Bernie can recapture those voters in a heartbeat.

Florida? Colorado? Arizona? Not so sure how he'd do there. But don't be surprised if he turns Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania blue again.

Worth pointing out that the Republicans won a two year one party dictatorship by holding their noses and voting for Trump. If only the Dems had that kind of discipline, THEY'D NEVER LOSE. Except they should be supporting candidates that bring out the African American vote, not the union vote imho.

I think this is looking at this way too over simplistically. It’s scary how a lot of the Bernie support and fanaticism behind him mirror the support of Labor and lead up to the UK election. Labor is undoubtedly better than the Conservative party and anyone who voted for Brexit is an idiot but Boris Johnson managed to turn the election into a single issue Get Brexit done and completely obliterated Labor strongholds that had existed for decades. I see the same problem with the myopic view of Bernie that just because he’s pro union it assumes other Republicans, Independents and Democrats will vote for him, it’s wrong. I’ll give you an anecdote that shows why this thinking is wrong. I listened to a podcast that spoke with fracking workers in Pennsylvania about Bernie and Elizabeth’s blanket ban on fracking. Long story short the workers in this industry were against a blanket ban, but not higher environmental standards and the very Progressive far left mayor of the town was against it as well. The interviewed Democratic voters that work in fracking and all of them said they’d either sit out the election or vote for Trump if Bernie or Warren were the nominee. Granted this is a small sample size and they could just be lying, but this highlights the problem of rhetoric without a plan. Sure it makes for great sound bites and retweets to say you’re going to go after the healthcare industry because of greedy CEOs but it ignores the real fear from the millions of people in the field who aren’t CEO’s that worry about losing their jobs.

People are often think in their own self interests so Bernie’s policies sound great until you put them against a framework that goes against their self interest. So I’m sure there are a lot of people are 100% behind the idea of free college but even some very Progressive people would balk at the idea of giving universal healthcare to undocumented immigrants. Bernie and his policies have not really been tested. Elizabeth Warren took a hit when you actually put numbers behind her Medicare 4 all plan. What happens when Bernie’s plan actually get scrutinized? The general is not the place to start scrutinizing his policies because they take a lot of nuance to understand. For an election like this you need someone who is flexible and can pivot, not remain rigid in his beliefs. Mike Bloomberg has built a strong election infrastructure and has pledged to spend a billion dollars to defeat Trump, but I heard Bernie’s senior advisor say on tv that they wouldn’t take any help from him which is about the dumbest thing you can do. Democrats need to win up and down the ballot so it’s bigger than just a Bernie Sanders.

[Pointgod]

Bernie is the only candidate who can beat Trump

Even the worst of the Democratic candidates can beat Trump if people turn out and fully support them. So this Bernie is the only one that can one rhetoric seems to be just a bargaining chip from the far left of the party as a threat to sit out. Obviously people like yourself excluded. All this comes with the heavy caveat that Republicans will cheat to win the election so it may not even matter who the candidate is.

what is interesting on this (or sad) is that I am interacting with both moderates and progressives that are now saying they aren't going to vote for Bernie or a moderate respectively.

So, I don't think we can put this on progressives only. Both can't see a path forward for the other group. I do think this inevitably leads to a split of some kind - I just can't wrap my head around what that will look like.

I don’t disagree, look at my post above. This happens all along the spectrum, but from what I’ve seen Bernie supporters specifically have been the most vocal about ideological purity. Just based on anecdotal evidence I’ve seen more Moderates say that they’ll support whoever the nominee is and this was a lot earlier in the primary. We also have the historical context of 2016 where a lot of Bernie supporters (I don’t want to call them Progressives because there are Progressives even amongst moderates) decided to throw the election. (I know someone is going to post more Bernie supporters went to Hillary than Hillary supporters went to Obama but this ignores the people who voted third party or took their ball and went home not to mention the world of difference between McCain and Trump.)

[Pointgod]

Right now I don't think any D is going to beat Trump given the economy and given the war between moderates and progressives.

Don't think 2020 is our year

I'm somewhat pessimistic, too. I still suggest that the only is Warren should Bernie's supporters back her at some point but I'm not convinced that's close to a sure thing, either.

I do think this is an area where moderates are eventually going to have to figure out ways they can bend, though. This whole stance of "it's us or Trump" is a great way to basically disenfranchise anyone pushing for more dramatic action, or at least make them feel that way. It eventually has to be a bit of a give and take where you get some from both sides of the partnership and that hasn't been happening for some time now. They were particularly burned here as they seemed to be under the belief that there were moderate Republicans that would jump to them as Republican positions became increasingly extreme. They were wrong about that one.

The thing here is that as Republican positions have become more extreme, they run less risk of losing moderates if they follow suit because it's a pretty wide chasm at this point. There are a few billionaires and other such wealthy people who might flip for tax cut purposes but they'd probably do it quietly because it would come with a decided branding change.


As an aside, I spent a few months living in St. Petersburg in the early 2000s. Obviously there are massive differences but there are also some parallels that can be drawn. The frustrations I saw amongst educated people who wanted to do the right thing about being unable to trust the media or government and being unsure what to think are starting to be paralleled here. Not that Trump or anyone is necessarily going to figure out a way to get around the two term limit. Even a brokered convention isn't going to bridge that issue and Putin had to temporarily leave office to solve that problem in Russia, something Trump doesn't have time for and even then probably won't be able to resolve. But pushing things towards locking in multitudes of states in as Republican states, locking up the courts, basically rebalancing public institutions and media, can cause big problems.

I’ve been saying this for ages. Elizabeth Warren is a better messenger for Bernie’s policies than Bernie. Bernie is amazing at creating enthusiasm but the actual details of his policies and how he’ll get things done is questionable. Trump is going to label every Democrat that runs against him a socialist, but Warren would tell him **** you, I’m a capitalist. She can explain how her positioned evolved as a Republican and realizing the Republican Party has lost its soul. And I don’t see her as the type of candidate that’s inflexible in adjusting her approach. Now she has her own problems that she’d face in the general but most of it is superficial bs. It’s still mind boggling to be that she got penalized for actually showing her work and saying that Medicare for all should be phased in over time. If her name was Leonard Warren she’d be running away with the primary.

[Zonkerbl]

Well, so those are fracking workers. Way to cherry pick the data there.

[Kanyewest]

I don't know about swing state but the rust belt states that Trump surprisingly won are all hardcore pro-union and that is Bernie's core constituency. Trump only won over the ex-union guys because the Dems abandoned them. Bernie can recapture those voters in a heartbeat.

Florida? Colorado? Arizona? Not so sure how he'd do there. But don't be surprised if he turns Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania blue again.

Worth pointing out that the Republicans won a two year one party dictatorship by holding their noses and voting for Trump. If only the Dems had that kind of discipline, THEY'D NEVER LOSE. Except they should be supporting candidates that bring out the African American vote, not the union vote imho.

I think this is looking at this way too over simplistically. It’s scary how a lot of the Bernie support and fanaticism behind him mirror the support of Labor and lead up to the UK election. Labor is undoubtedly better than the Conservative party and anyone who voted for Brexit is an idiot but Boris Johnson managed to turn the election into a single issue Get Brexit done and completely obliterated Labor strongholds that had existed for decades. I see the same problem with the myopic view of Bernie that just because he’s pro union it assumes other Republicans, Independents and Democrats will vote for him, it’s wrong. I’ll give you an anecdote that shows why this thinking is wrong. I listened to a podcast that spoke with fracking workers in Pennsylvania about Bernie and Elizabeth’s blanket ban on fracking. Long story short the workers in this industry were against a blanket ban, but not higher environmental standards and the very Progressive far left mayor of the town was against it as well. The interviewed Democratic voters that work in fracking and all of them said they’d either sit out the election or vote for Trump if Bernie or Warren were the nominee. Granted this is a small sample size and they could just be lying, but this highlights the problem of rhetoric without a plan. Sure it makes for great sound bites and retweets to say you’re going to go after the healthcare industry because of greedy CEOs but it ignores the real fear from the millions of people in the field who aren’t CEO’s that worry about losing their jobs.

People are often think in their own self interests so Bernie’s policies sound great until you put them against a framework that goes against their self interest. So I’m sure there are a lot of people are 100% behind the idea of free college but even some very Progressive people would balk at the idea of giving universal healthcare to undocumented immigrants. Bernie and his policies have not really been tested. Elizabeth Warren took a hit when you actually put numbers behind her Medicare 4 all plan. What happens when Bernie’s plan actually get scrutinized? The general is not the place to start scrutinizing his policies because they take a lot of nuance to understand. For an election like this you need someone who is flexible and can pivot, not remain rigid in his beliefs. Mike Bloomberg has built a strong election infrastructure and has pledged to spend a billion dollars to defeat Trump, but I heard Bernie’s senior advisor say on tv that they wouldn’t take any help from him which is about the dumbest thing you can do. Democrats need to win up and down the ballot so it’s bigger than just a Bernie Sanders.

I talked to an economist and he constantly views Corbyn in a very unfavorable light. While this election was in some ways a referendum on Brexit - Corbyn himself in the past was for Brexit and wasn't really pushing against Brexit in his re-election campaign. Also Corbyn net approval rating is negative 50(!).

[Kanyewest]

Maryland has banned fracking in their state (although they still import gas from fracking).

[Zonkerbl]

Really I should just boycott this conversation until Super Tuesday. Because Iowa and NH just are not a good sample of the populations we need good samples of.

[gtn130]

So this Bernie is the only one that can one rhetoric seems to be just a bargaining chip from the far left of the party as a threat to sit out.

Could be, but I'm just accepting the Emerson Poll on its face that shows 53% of Sanders supporters won't vote for anyone but him.

[Pointgod]

Well, so those are fracking workers. Way to cherry pick the data there.

Yes it’s one anecdote but I can give you a hell of a lot more examples, everything from small business owners to healthcare workers. Extrapolate that and you have hundreds of thousands if not millions of people. And for an election that’s going to be won on the margins, these things matter. I have never seen Bernie address what’s going to happen to the 15 million people in healthcare who’s jobs will be affected by Medicare for all.

[FAH1223]

I don't know about swing state but the rust belt states that Trump surprisingly won are all hardcore pro-union and that is Bernie's core constituency. Trump only won over the ex-union guys because the Dems abandoned them. Bernie can recapture those voters in a heartbeat.

Florida? Colorado? Arizona? Not so sure how he'd do there. But don't be surprised if he turns Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania blue again.

Worth pointing out that the Republicans won a two year one party dictatorship by holding their noses and voting for Trump. If only the Dems had that kind of discipline, THEY'D NEVER LOSE. Except they should be supporting candidates that bring out the African American vote, not the union vote imho.

I think this is looking at this way too over simplistically. It’s scary how a lot of the Bernie support and fanaticism behind him mirror the support of Labor and lead up to the UK election. Labor is undoubtedly better than the Conservative party and anyone who voted for Brexit is an idiot but Boris Johnson managed to turn the election into a single issue Get Brexit done and completely obliterated Labor strongholds that had existed for decades. I see the same problem with the myopic view of Bernie that just because he’s pro union it assumes other Republicans, Independents and Democrats will vote for him, it’s wrong. I’ll give you an anecdote that shows why this thinking is wrong. I listened to a podcast that spoke with fracking workers in Pennsylvania about Bernie and Elizabeth’s blanket ban on fracking. Long story short the workers in this industry were against a blanket ban, but not higher environmental standards and the very Progressive far left mayor of the town was against it as well. The interviewed Democratic voters that work in fracking and all of them said they’d either sit out the election or vote for Trump if Bernie or Warren were the nominee. Granted this is a small sample size and they could just be lying, but this highlights the problem of rhetoric without a plan. Sure it makes for great sound bites and retweets to say you’re going to go after the healthcare industry because of greedy CEOs but it ignores the real fear from the millions of people in the field who aren’t CEO’s that worry about losing their jobs.

People are often think in their own self interests so Bernie’s policies sound great until you put them against a framework that goes against their self interest. So I’m sure there are a lot of people are 100% behind the idea of free college but even some very Progressive people would balk at the idea of giving universal healthcare to undocumented immigrants. Bernie and his policies have not really been tested. Elizabeth Warren took a hit when you actually put numbers behind her Medicare 4 all plan. What happens when Bernie’s plan actually get scrutinized? The general is not the place to start scrutinizing his policies because they take a lot of nuance to understand. For an election like this you need someone who is flexible and can pivot, not remain rigid in his beliefs. Mike Bloomberg has built a strong election infrastructure and has pledged to spend a billion dollars to defeat Trump, but I heard Bernie’s senior advisor say on tv that they wouldn’t take any help from him which is about the dumbest thing you can do. Democrats need to win up and down the ballot so it’s bigger than just a Bernie Sanders.

Bernie's advisor says they don't need the money or the help cause they don't. But they aren't opposed to Bloomberg doing what he wants to destroy Trump or help Dems down ballot.

Bernie is going to be able to raise the money needed for a general election campaign.

On fracking, Bernie has repeatedly said that people who work in fossil fuel industry ain't his enemy. He doesn't want to destroy livelihoods. He wants to get climate items done. His plans aren't going to be law. Its Overton Window shifting.

[FAH1223]

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[dckingsfan]

So this Bernie is the only one that can one rhetoric seems to be just a bargaining chip from the far left of the party as a threat to sit out.

Could be, but I'm just accepting the Emerson Poll on its face that shows 53% of Sanders supporters won't vote for anyone but him.

This is a very good point. If you don't vote for Bernie we lose because Bernie's followers won't vote for anyone else.

What isn't so terrific is the moderates are now saying anyone but Bernie. Think you are making my original point:

Right now I don't think any D is going to beat Trump given the economy and given the war between moderates and progressives.

Don't think 2020 is our year

Well that and the economy and unemployment. Folks don't seem to be able to pair that with what Obama started sans the burgeoning debt load.

[Pointgod]

I don't know about swing state but the rust belt states that Trump surprisingly won are all hardcore pro-union and that is Bernie's core constituency. Trump only won over the ex-union guys because the Dems abandoned them. Bernie can recapture those voters in a heartbeat.

Florida? Colorado? Arizona? Not so sure how he'd do there. But don't be surprised if he turns Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania blue again.

Worth pointing out that the Republicans won a two year one party dictatorship by holding their noses and voting for Trump. If only the Dems had that kind of discipline, THEY'D NEVER LOSE. Except they should be supporting candidates that bring out the African American vote, not the union vote imho.

I think this is looking at this way too over simplistically. It’s scary how a lot of the Bernie support and fanaticism behind him mirror the support of Labor and lead up to the UK election. Labor is undoubtedly better than the Conservative party and anyone who voted for Brexit is an idiot but Boris Johnson managed to turn the election into a single issue Get Brexit done and completely obliterated Labor strongholds that had existed for decades. I see the same problem with the myopic view of Bernie that just because he’s pro union it assumes other Republicans, Independents and Democrats will vote for him, it’s wrong. I’ll give you an anecdote that shows why this thinking is wrong. I listened to a podcast that spoke with fracking workers in Pennsylvania about Bernie and Elizabeth’s blanket ban on fracking. Long story short the workers in this industry were against a blanket ban, but not higher environmental standards and the very Progressive far left mayor of the town was against it as well. The interviewed Democratic voters that work in fracking and all of them said they’d either sit out the election or vote for Trump if Bernie or Warren were the nominee. Granted this is a small sample size and they could just be lying, but this highlights the problem of rhetoric without a plan. Sure it makes for great sound bites and retweets to say you’re going to go after the healthcare industry because of greedy CEOs but it ignores the real fear from the millions of people in the field who aren’t CEO’s that worry about losing their jobs.

People are often think in their own self interests so Bernie’s policies sound great until you put them against a framework that goes against their self interest. So I’m sure there are a lot of people are 100% behind the idea of free college but even some very Progressive people would balk at the idea of giving universal healthcare to undocumented immigrants. Bernie and his policies have not really been tested. Elizabeth Warren took a hit when you actually put numbers behind her Medicare 4 all plan. What happens when Bernie’s plan actually get scrutinized? The general is not the place to start scrutinizing his policies because they take a lot of nuance to understand. For an election like this you need someone who is flexible and can pivot, not remain rigid in his beliefs. Mike Bloomberg has built a strong election infrastructure and has pledged to spend a billion dollars to defeat Trump, but I heard Bernie’s senior advisor say on tv that they wouldn’t take any help from him which is about the dumbest thing you can do. Democrats need to win up and down the ballot so it’s bigger than just a Bernie Sanders.

I talked to an economist and he constantly views Corbyn in a very unfavorable light. While this election was in some ways a referendum on Brexit - Corbyn himself in the past was for Brexit and wasn't really pushing against Brexit in his re-election campaign. Also Corbyn net approval rating is negative 50(!).

The same way that the UK election wasn’t about policy, neither will this upcoming election. While I agree with Bernie’s economic policies it’s much harder to get the rest of the country on board because it will require a massive investment and it will require taxes to go up on everyone unless you increase the deficit. Trump is going to run on the economy and that’s where he’s strongest. Bernie’s policies are great in a vacuum but when you place them up against a set up criteria it’s a different story.

[dckingsfan]

On fracking, Bernie has repeatedly said that people who work in fossil fuel industry ain't his enemy. He doesn't want to destroy livelihoods. He wants to get climate items done. His plans aren't going to be law. Its Overton Window shifting.

It would be great if he could get that point across. Right now it seems to be interpreted as: I am going to shut down your job and there might be some help coming in the future.

[Kanyewest]

I'm right now reading Blowout by Rachel Maddow- halfway through- and I have a pretty unfavorable view of fracking in respects to climate change.

[FAH1223]

On fracking, Bernie has repeatedly said that people who work in fossil fuel industry ain't his enemy. He doesn't want to destroy livelihoods. He wants to get climate items done. His plans aren't going to be law. Its Overton Window shifting.

It would be great if he could get that point across. Right now it seems to be interpreted as: I am going to shut down your job and there might be some help coming in the future.

I've been watching some of his townhalls on his YouTube page lately, its worth a listen cause voters who work in that industry or have connections to it are asking about it and he's saying 'you ain't my enemy, I'm just saying our priorities have to change'

I think you're going to see a 'General Election Bernie' emerge if he keeps doing well. To make moderates more at ease. He's not going to walk back his policies but his rhetoric will shift. I'm already seeing it now.

Like these ads, for example

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