Pointgod wrote:Kanyewest wrote:Pointgod wrote:
I think this is looking at this way too over simplistically. It’s scary how a lot of the Bernie support and fanaticism behind him mirror the support of Labor and lead up to the UK election. Labor is undoubtedly better than the Conservative party and anyone who voted for Brexit is an idiot but Boris Johnson managed to turn the election into a single issue Get Brexit done and completely obliterated Labor strongholds that had existed for decades. I see the same problem with the myopic view of Bernie that just because he’s pro union it assumes other Republicans, Independents and Democrats will vote for him, it’s wrong. I’ll give you an anecdote that shows why this thinking is wrong. I listened to a podcast that spoke with fracking workers in Pennsylvania about Bernie and Elizabeth’s blanket ban on fracking. Long story short the workers in this industry were against a blanket ban, but not higher environmental standards and the very Progressive far left mayor of the town was against it as well. The interviewed Democratic voters that work in fracking and all of them said they’d either sit out the election or vote for Trump if Bernie or Warren were the nominee. Granted this is a small sample size and they could just be lying, but this highlights the problem of rhetoric without a plan. Sure it makes for great sound bites and retweets to say you’re going to go after the healthcare industry because of greedy CEOs but it ignores the real fear from the millions of people in the field who aren’t CEO’s that worry about losing their jobs.
People are often think in their own self interests so Bernie’s policies sound great until you put them against a framework that goes against their self interest. So I’m sure there are a lot of people are 100% behind the idea of free college but even some very Progressive people would balk at the idea of giving universal healthcare to undocumented immigrants. Bernie and his policies have not really been tested. Elizabeth Warren took a hit when you actually put numbers behind her Medicare 4 all plan. What happens when Bernie’s plan actually get scrutinized? The general is not the place to start scrutinizing his policies because they take a lot of nuance to understand. For an election like this you need someone who is flexible and can pivot, not remain rigid in his beliefs. Mike Bloomberg has built a strong election infrastructure and has pledged to spend a billion dollars to defeat Trump, but I heard Bernie’s senior advisor say on tv that they wouldn’t take any help from him which is about the dumbest thing you can do. Democrats need to win up and down the ballot so it’s bigger than just a Bernie Sanders.
I talked to an economist and he constantly views Corbyn in a very unfavorable light. While this election was in some ways a referendum on Brexit - Corbyn himself in the past was for Brexit and wasn't really pushing against Brexit in his re-election campaign. Also Corbyn net approval rating is negative 50(!).
The same way that the UK election wasn’t about policy, neither will this upcoming election. While I agree with Bernie’s economic policies it’s much harder to get the rest of the country on board because it will require a massive investment and it will require taxes to go up on everyone unless you increase the deficit. Trump is going to run on the economy and that’s where he’s strongest. Bernie’s policies are great in a vacuum but when you place them up against a set up criteria it’s a different story.
Agreed. It could be tough for any candidate especially if there is foreign interference again and an incumbent president hasn't lost since 1992.
That being said, Trump ran against a very similar economy in 2016 so he's vulnerable in the same ways in that there is wage stagnation among middle class voters. In the same economy in 2018, Trump lost a of the seats in the midterm election. Granted there were many moderate democrats- but hopefully these same Democrats will support whoever the nominee is especially since most of the party thinks Trump should be impeached.
I do believe the concerns for Sanders that you are addressing are real enough (for instance maybe Sanders becomes a one term president). But it may not hurt him against Trump- right now to me this is a big unknown and uncertainty. While Sanders would certainly struggle in a general election in the past, younger voters do no not have the negative impression of Sanders being a Democratic socialist as they look at is like a European country. However, older voters may view it more negatively as communist and anti-captalist.
Sanders may also not draw as many college educated voters as Warren/Pete; but if the choice is between Sanders and Trump- perhaps these voters would be more likely to vote for Sanders anyways at least that's how I would hope it plays.
