spikeslovechild wrote:The Comedian wrote:Darth Celtic wrote:and that's why the professionals at caesars palace put out win odds for the season with Boston at 49.5 and the Nets 47. But that's Ok bro, you do you, you have all the answers in the world and nothing you say is ever wrong. Except everything you say. Even your own fans on the Nets board blast you for acting like your opinions are fact and it can only be that way.
Your schtick is old and tired and even fans of your own team point it out. Let alone every other person on the GB.
The Celtics won't be missing the playoffs this year, get over it.
You do know how betting lines work right? They are designed so the house always makes money not on the likelihood of something happening.
Usually they go hand and hand sports is sort of outlier fans will move lines based on emotions and loyalty. Like the Lakers have the same odds as the Bucks to win a championship and worse odds then the sixers. You can look at every predictive model none supports that conclusion both the Bucks and Sixers have overwhelming better odds because of playing in the east.
https://www.sportsbettingdime.com/nba/championship-odds/
It's designed for the house to always make money by charging fees regardless of outcome and balancing the books. I work for an oddsmaker, we 100% set the odds based off of most likely outcome. Sportsbooks will take those odds and shade them accordingly based on betting patterns and amount of money they currently have on their books, but the swings aren't massive because it doesn't benefit them in the long-run. Initial lines are shaded the most and they'll get much tighter by the time we hit the start of the regular season.
So, no the lines are not 100% based on the most likely outcome, but the deviation will not be greater than 10% from what the consensus is (trap lines are a myth).
