What is Jayson Tatum's ceiling?

[Duke4life831]

Im going to make a Brandon Ingram comparison real quick so bare with me for a second haha.

If you look at Brandon Ingram's 3rd year, around half way through that season something clearly clicked and he turned an obvious corner. He began to average around 24/5 on 63 TS% before he got his blood clot. But it was clear he turned a corner and he has continued that level of play so far this season.

Looking at Tatum, it seems like something similar has happened. His last 11 games it appears he has turned a corner. 26/7/3 on 61 TS% over that time span. Obviously Im not saying he's going to average that for the rest of the year, but I think he is showing a great preview for what is to come with his game.

I think the 25ppg and 60 TS% is the barrier for Ingram to be a top 5 player. In the past 5 seasons here are the players to hit the 25/7 and 60 TS% mark.

Giannis
AD
LeBron
KD
Harden
Kawhi
KAT

Either than KAT, all of those guys are at least have been talked about as top 5 players, 4 of those guys are MVP winners. I think with Tatum's defense, if he becomes a 25ppg with 60 TS% kind of scorer he is in the top 5 conversation. If he then can get to the 5 assist per game mark, I think you could see him in top 3/best player of the game conversations.

I think you can make an argument that Tatum over the last 30 games or so has been playing like a top 10 player. 23/7/3 on 58 TS% with elite defense, on a winning team.

[Slax]

Im going to make a Brandon Ingram comparison real quick so bare with me for a second haha.

If you look at Brandon Ingram's 3rd year, around half way through that season something clearly clicked and he turned an obvious corner. He began to average around 24/5 on 63 TS% before he got his blood clot. But it was clear he turned a corner and he has continued that level of play so far this season.

Looking at Tatum, it seems like something similar has happened. His last 11 games it appears he has turned a corner. 26/7/3 on 61 TS% over that time span. Obviously Im not saying he's going to average that for the rest of the year, but I think he is showing a great preview for what is to come with his game.

I think the 25ppg and 60 TS% is the barrier for Ingram to be a top 5 player. In the past 5 seasons here are the players to hit the 25/7 and 60 TS% mark.

Giannis
AD
LeBron
KD
Harden
Kawhi
KAT

Either than KAT, all of those guys are at least have been talked about as top 5 players, 4 of those guys are MVP winners. I think with Tatum's defense, if he becomes a 25ppg with 60 TS% kind of scorer he is in the top 5 conversation. If he then can get to the 5 assist per game mark, I think you could see him in top 3/best player of the game conversations.

I think you can make an argument that Tatum over the last 30 games or so has been playing like a top 10 player. 23/7/3 on 58 TS% with elite defense, on a winning team.

This is a super interesting comparison, but it makes me curious if you think Ingram is in the conversation as a top 5 player, because you say "I think the 25ppg and 60 TS% is the barrier for Ingram to be a top 5 player." and I am pretty sure Ingram is already right around those numbers. Or are you just saying Ingram has broken the numbers barrier to become a top 5 player, but doesn't have the sorts of harder-to-measure contributions like on defense that could have pushed him over the edge?

[Duke4life831]

Im going to make a Brandon Ingram comparison real quick so bare with me for a second haha.

If you look at Brandon Ingram's 3rd year, around half way through that season something clearly clicked and he turned an obvious corner. He began to average around 24/5 on 63 TS% before he got his blood clot. But it was clear he turned a corner and he has continued that level of play so far this season.

Looking at Tatum, it seems like something similar has happened. His last 11 games it appears he has turned a corner. 26/7/3 on 61 TS% over that time span. Obviously Im not saying he's going to average that for the rest of the year, but I think he is showing a great preview for what is to come with his game.

I think the 25ppg and 60 TS% is the barrier for Ingram to be a top 5 player. In the past 5 seasons here are the players to hit the 25/7 and 60 TS% mark.

Giannis
AD
LeBron
KD
Harden
Kawhi
KAT

Either than KAT, all of those guys are at least have been talked about as top 5 players, 4 of those guys are MVP winners. I think with Tatum's defense, if he becomes a 25ppg with 60 TS% kind of scorer he is in the top 5 conversation. If he then can get to the 5 assist per game mark, I think you could see him in top 3/best player of the game conversations.

I think you can make an argument that Tatum over the last 30 games or so has been playing like a top 10 player. 23/7/3 on 58 TS% with elite defense, on a winning team.

This is a super interesting comparison, but it makes me curious if you think Ingram is in the conversation as a top 5 player, because you say "I think the 25ppg and 60 TS% is the barrier for Ingram to be a top 5 player." and I am pretty sure Ingram is already right around those numbers. Or are you just saying Ingram has broken the numbers barrier to become a top 5 player, but doesn't have the sorts of harder-to-measure contributions like on defense that could have pushed him over the edge?

I was really just using the Ingram comparison for the clear signs of breaking out half way through their 3rd season. It was roughly around the same time when something just clicked with Ingram (game 39 for him, game 37 for Tatum). That was really the only reason I brought him up, cause I saw it last year with him and seeing now again with Tatum. Wasn't trying to start the Ingram vs Tatum thing haha.

But on that side note, I think Ingram is much rawer than Tatum who I think has a much more refined game at the moment. I think if Ingram hits those marks, he'd be more at the KAT level in that group than the KD/Giannis/LeBron/Kawhi group that I think Tatum would be if he hits those marks.

[cloverleaf]

The dude's growing into a Marvel superhero physique. Tiny waist, but broad shoulders and bulging muscles. No fat. He's gonna be strong enough, despite the wasp waist, to do whatever he wants.

[LewisnotMiller]

Ceiling is that #0 ends up next to #5 in the rafters.

[sam_I_am]

Already a top 5 player in the East according to Jay Williams.
https://nesn.com/2020/02/this-nba-analyst-says-jayson-tatum-is-among-best-players-in-conference/

[Big Joke Line]

The **** Sistine Chapel.

[Fencer reregistered]

Ceiling is that #0 ends up next to #5 in the rafters.

So you're saying his ceiling is Cedric Maxwell?

Well, I do hope he's Finals MVP some time ...

[BostonCouchGM]

Im going to make a Brandon Ingram comparison real quick so bare with me for a second haha.

If you look at Brandon Ingram's 3rd year, around half way through that season something clearly clicked and he turned an obvious corner. He began to average around 24/5 on 63 TS% before he got his blood clot. But it was clear he turned a corner and he has continued that level of play so far this season.

Looking at Tatum, it seems like something similar has happened. His last 11 games it appears he has turned a corner. 26/7/3 on 61 TS% over that time span. Obviously Im not saying he's going to average that for the rest of the year, but I think he is showing a great preview for what is to come with his game.

I think the 25ppg and 60 TS% is the barrier for Ingram to be a top 5 player. In the past 5 seasons here are the players to hit the 25/7 and 60 TS% mark.

Giannis
AD
LeBron
KD
Harden
Kawhi
KAT

Either than KAT, all of those guys are at least have been talked about as top 5 players, 4 of those guys are MVP winners. I think with Tatum's defense, if he becomes a 25ppg with 60 TS% kind of scorer he is in the top 5 conversation. If he then can get to the 5 assist per game mark, I think you could see him in top 3/best player of the game conversations.

I think you can make an argument that Tatum over the last 30 games or so has been playing like a top 10 player. 23/7/3 on 58 TS% with elite defense, on a winning team.

This is a super interesting comparison, but it makes me curious if you think Ingram is in the conversation as a top 5 player, because you say "I think the 25ppg and 60 TS% is the barrier for Ingram to be a top 5 player." and I am pretty sure Ingram is already right around those numbers. Or are you just saying Ingram has broken the numbers barrier to become a top 5 player, but doesn't have the sorts of harder-to-measure contributions like on defense that could have pushed him over the edge?

I was really just using the Ingram comparison for the clear signs of breaking out half way through their 3rd season. It was roughly around the same time when something just clicked with Ingram (game 39 for him, game 37 for Tatum). That was really the only reason I brought him up, cause I saw it last year with him and seeing now again with Tatum. Wasn't trying to start the Ingram vs Tatum thing haha.

But on that side note, I think Ingram is much rawer than Tatum who I think has a much more refined game at the moment. I think if Ingram hits those marks, he'd be more at the KAT level in that group than the KD/Giannis/LeBron/Kawhi group that I think Tatum would be if he hits those marks.

They're very similar players and close in talent level. What is holding Ingram back is his inability to put on size like Tatum has. Ingram is just slightly more skilled all around at this moment but the gap is closing. I'm not seeing where he's rawer than Tatum. He's just 6 months older than Tatum too. Ingram seems like he's 20 lbs away from being KD lite. Tatum is 20 lbs away from being Melo with defense.

[zoyathedestroya]

Only player in NBA history to reach 350 made threes and 200 steals before the age of 22. Ceiling: 3-and-D guy.

[Smog]

Tatum looks like he's going to be a lead scorer on a contender. There are only a few offensive players who are that good. Even someone like Kemba, who's one of the top offensive players in the league, probably doesn't qualify because he can be taken advantage of on the other end. Tatum is a guy you can feed over and over and get good shots. All he really needs is to become a better passer. He may never be Kobe good, but he can play that role, can't he?

[cloverleaf]

Tatum looks like he's going to be a lead scorer on a contender. There are only a few offensive players who are that good. Even someone like Kemba, who's one of the top offensive players in the league, probably doesn't qualify because he can be taken advantage of on the other end. Tatum is a guy you can feed over and over and get good shots. All he really needs is to become a better passer. He may never be Kobe good, but he can play that role, can't he?

But if he keeps up his two-way play, he passes many of those lead-scorer types. That's his ticket to greatness.

I think he will become both a better rebounder and passer as he continues to improve. Also a better decision-maker and more skilled at finishing at the basket. The leap he has taken this year, after a sophomore slump and then taking a couple of months to grow into his more dominant role, has been impressive. No reason to think he's done growing his game.

[sam_I_am]

The key for the Celtics is for Tatum to consistently be that guy he was in 4 th quarter the way Paul Pierce was in 2009 without KG. That doesn’t mean every game has to be epic but he needs to be that “guy” .... that leader who believes he must take over at times and believes he can.....because he actually can. Once he is that guy consistently, only Giannis is better in the East. When Pierce scored 45 in a half against peak Shaq Lakers and got called the Truth..... he still had stinkers fairly often and still wasn’t that guy yet. Too bad Kawhi doesn’t have a Shaq like personality.....because Tatum still needs a nickname.

When you look at NBA today.....the Celtics are a team that can beat everybody. The Bucks and the Lakers would be heavy favorites against them. Against the rest of good teams - Raptors, Pacers, Heat, Denver, Rockets, Clippers, (Sixers) - I wouldn’t bet against Celtics.....I might not bet on them either because they could lose to any of them too.

It’s going to be Bucks in ECF and Clippers in finals. Can the Celtics mature enough in the next 2 months to take care of business and then down the Bucks? If so they have a legit shot at a title. But Giannis is so freaking good.

[Higgs Boston]

25 PPG with good efficiency + elite defense doesn't make a player top5, just top10. Top5 players usually are close or over 28 PPG with good efficiency + some elite skills (defense, playmaking, rebounding etc) especially in playoffs.

[exculpatory]

The key for the Celtics is for Tatum to consistently be that guy he was in the 4th quarter the way Paul Pierce was in 2009 without KG (MUCH MUCH MUCH MORE ACCURATELY THE WAY PAUL PIERCE WAS FOR THE MAJORITY OF HIS FREAKING CAREER [PRE-BIG 3, DURING BIG 3 & POST BIG 3] DURING THE FOURTH QUARTER & DURING CLUTCH TIME IN GENERAL [NOT ONLY AFTER KG WENT DOWN IN 2/2009 - KG WAS NEVER EVER THE OFFENSIVE GO TO STUD DURING THE BIG 3 ERA - IT WAS ALWAYS PAUL GAME IN GAME OUT in addition to many game icing shots by Ray]).

That doesn’t mean every game has to be epic but he needs to be that “guy” .... that leader who believes he must take over at times and believes he can.....because he actually can = the kind of baller epitomized by Paul Pierce.

Once he is that guy consistently, only Giannis is better in the East.

When Pierce scored 45 in a half against peak Shaq Lakers and got called the Truth..... he still had stinkers fairly often and still wasn’t that guy yet. Too bad Kawhi doesn’t have a Shaq like personality.....because Tatum still needs a nickname. JSMOOTH


When you look at NBA today.....the Celtics are a team that can beat everybody. The Bucks and the Lakers would be heavy favorites against them. Against the rest of good teams - Raptors, Pacers, Heat, Denver, Rockets, Clippers, (Sixers) - I wouldn’t bet against Celtics.....I might not bet on them either because they could lose to any of them too. AGREE TOTALLY!

It’s going to be Bucks in ECF and Clippers in finals. Can the Celtics mature enough in the next 2 months to take care of business and then down the Bucks? If so, they have a legit shot at a title. But Giannis is so freaking good. 70-30, THEY WILL.

.

Great post as usual - enhanced w my edits.

[Slax]

25 PPG with good efficiency + elite defense doesn't make a player top5, just top10. Top5 players usually are close or over 28 PPG with good efficiency + some elite skills (defense, playmaking, rebounding etc) especially in playoffs.

I think that depends on how good the efficiency is and how elite the defense is. Kawhi got all-NBA first team with 25 ppg, good efficiency, and elite defense.

[cloverleaf]

25 PPG with good efficiency + elite defense doesn't make a player top5, just top10. Top5 players usually are close or over 28 PPG with good efficiency + some elite skills (defense, playmaking, rebounding etc) especially in playoffs.

I think that depends on how good the efficiency is and how elite the defense is. Kawhi got all-NBA first team with 25 ppg, good efficiency, and elite defense.

PG was 1st team last year at 21 ppg; Jokic, with 20. One of Steph Curry's years he had 17, another he had 23.

(But how good are those rankings anyway? Kyrie was 2nd team last year and he about tore his team and organization apart.)

[Ed Pinkney]

After the last couple of months, I honestly can say I see a ceiling that is the best player in the league. And I say that with only a hint of homerism and hyperbole. A fantastic two way player who can get you 30 points a night and basically win you games on his own? That’s prime Durant/James/Leonard/Giannis territory.

Now, the chances of any NBA player reaching their absolute ceiling? Very slim, but to me the ceiling is a players absolute best case scenario. And I think Tatums is as high as anyone’s.

Do I think he will get there (his absolute ceiling)? Probably not, but he is going to be a multiple time All Star, he is going to make All NBA and All Defense teams, and he is going to be best player on teams that (hopefully) make very deep playoff runs.

I just hope it is all in a Celtics uniform.

[K For Three]

The way I see LeBron and Giannis are the only 2 guys in last 10-ish years who are in a class of their own. Elite offensively and defensively. Put them on your team and you are automatically a contender. KD was close but had more help than LeBron (1st Cleveland stint) and Giannis and didn't accomplish enough. Had to jump on a 70 win team who already had an MVP to get his title.

Curry revolutionized the game with his shooting. You could argue he's in the Giannis LeBron level. The best offensive player in the last 10 years but nowhere near as good as Giannis and LeBron defensively.

After that there's a ton of good players but no one else is tier 1. I don't see Tatum getting to that LeBron / Giannis level but tier 2 is in play. Playmaking is overstated when talking about ceilings. I'll take the stud defender who is a mediocre playmaker (Tatum) over the complete offensive player who sucks at defense (Harden). Having your best offensive player be an apathetic defender generally doesn't result in titles. Curry at least was passable on D.

I know Raptors are rolling (in the regular season) even after losing him, but I would easily put Kawhi Leonard in tier 1. Not as durable as Lebron and Giannis and not as great as a playmaker. But he can elevate his game to a whole other level when the stakes are at their highest.

For the postseason I would easily take Kawhi as the #1 most feared player and not even think twice about it.

.....And Tatum had his way with Kawhi.



Tatum vs. Kawhi=basketball heaven

Best game in sooooooooo long. Totally washed away the stench of whatever the hell that circus act fake game was in Houston a few nights before.

[lou310]

I know Raptors are rolling (in the regular season) even after losing him, but I would easily put Kawhi Leonard in tier 1. Not as durable as Lebron and Giannis and not as great as a playmaker. But he can elevate his game to a whole other level when the stakes are at their highest.

For the postseason I would easily take Kawhi as the #1 most feared player and not even think twice about it.

.....And Tatum had his way with Kawhi.



Tatum vs. Kawhi=basketball heaven

Best game in sooooooooo long. Totally washed away the stench of whatever the hell that circus act fake game was in Houston a few nights before.

Why does Tatum wear that stupid headband, look at that perfect hairline