Transaction Discussion Part 3 (Trades, Free-Agency, News, Rumors & Ideas)

[Andrew McCeltic]

Brought it up because awhile ago there was a Zubac for Baynes rumor..

[madmaxmedia]

a lot of coulda/woulda/shoulda in sports.

It's like 90% of RealGM

[madmaxmedia]

So no IT, no Collison, and looks like no Noah...who are we gonna fill our roster with?

[Yogatti]

Reggie Jackson might be an option. If Tristan Thompson changes his mind and goes for the buyout Clippers need to pick him up

[QRich3]

At most we're gonna add players that are not gonna be in the rotation, injury insurance and such. Realistically, do we have room in the rotation for a replacement level player? there's not gonna be a C in the buyout market better than Trez and Zu, not even for specific match ups, nor a PG better than Bev and Lou, maybe not even Mann. Ideally, we'd find a SF that could usurp McGruder's place in the rotation, but I'm not sure there's gonna be anyone available.

[esqtvd]

At most we're gonna add players that are not gonna be in the rotation, injury insurance and such. Realistically, do we have room in the rotation for a replacement level player? there's not gonna be a C in the buyout market better than Trez and Zu, not even for specific match ups, nor a PG better than Bev and Lou, maybe not even Mann. Ideally, we'd find a SF that could usurp McGruder's place in the rotation, but I'm not sure there's gonna be anyone available.

The Sixers game pointed up the problem at the 5, though. We might need some 7-foot cannon fodder at the end of the bench for the Lakers and Philly if their strategy against the Clips--and I would use it--is just to pound the ball in over and over to get Zu and Trezz in foul trouble. The 5 is already admittedly our weak spot; getting those two out could make it our Achilles Heel.

[Roscoe Sheed]

I know Evan Turner has been a disappointment overall in his career but I’d rather have him playing minutes than McGruder. Not a terrible option. He always seemed to play well against the clippers

[esqtvd]

I know Evan Turner has been a disappointment overall in his career but I’d rather have him playing minutes than McGruder. Not a terrible option. He always seemed to play well against the clippers

I see very little that's positive here in 10 years in the NBA

https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/t/turneev01.html

no 3 no D

[TrueLAfan]

The thing about Turner is that he does everything okay, and nothing particularly well. We don’t need an overall filler player. We need someone with specific skills. In the backcourt, we need someone who can run an offense. They need enough range and scoring to keep opposing D honest. Turner isn’t really that guy—12.2 pts/36 and 4.9 ast/36 on .445/.267/.807 isn’t a true playmaker or adequate scorer, IMO. Reggie Jackson (20.4 and 6.6 per 36 on .424/356/.827) or Trey Burke (18.4 and 5.3 on .445/.365/.781) would be much better, IMO.

On another Sixers player … Kyle O’Quinn may be bought out.

https://www.inquirer.com/sixers/sixers-kyle-oquinn-nba-trade-deadline-20200207.html

O’Quinn would be a terrific pickup. He doesn’t have real three point range … but he’s got a good mid range shot, which he uses enough (more than 30% of his shorts are from 16ft. out or more) to pull out defender and spread the court. He’s tall enough (6’10”) and has good bulk (250) so he can bang in the paint, and is a good rim protector and rebounder. I’d love to get him as a backup 5 if he’d want to come here.

[Young Sterling]

I know Evan Turner has been a disappointment overall in his career but I’d rather have him playing minutes than McGruder. Not a terrible option. He always seemed to play well against the clippers

I see very little that's positive here in 10 years in the NBA

https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/t/turneev01.html

no 3 no D

I think the FO is looking at him as a possible Pat Bev injury replacement starter pg. When Bev goes down (which happens a lot) Lou/Sham don't replace Bev's skillset the way Turner would. ET's stats are really similar to Bev's in terms of boards/assists. At the 1, he has the length and height defend other point guards too. That length would better replace the defense we miss when Bev is injured, something Lou and Sham just cannot provide against many other good guards.

The thing that kills this team the most statistically isn't PG13 or Sham can't play, but when Pat can't play. The FO needs to shore that up before playoffs and ET would be a great fit as a glue guy.

[esqtvd]

I know Evan Turner has been a disappointment overall in his career but I’d rather have him playing minutes than McGruder. Not a terrible option. He always seemed to play well against the clippers

I see very little that's positive here in 10 years in the NBA

https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/t/turneev01.html

no 3 no D

I think the FO is looking at him as a possible Pat Bev injury replacement starter pg. When Bev goes down (which happens a lot) Lou/Sham don't replace Bev's skillset the way Turner would. ET's stats are really similar to Bev's in terms of boards/assists. At the 1, he has the length and height defend other point guards too. That length would better replace the defense we miss when Bev is injured, something Lou and Sham just cannot provide against many other good guards.

The thing that kills this team the most statistically isn't PG13 or Sham can't play, but when Pat can't play. The FO needs to shore that up before playoffs and ET would be a great fit as a glue guy.

True, we are now 7-8 without Bev. And Turner is 6-6.

The best stats on Turner are not on his stat sheet, LOL.

[Young Sterling]

I see very little that's positive here in 10 years in the NBA

https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/t/turneev01.html

no 3 no D

I think the FO is looking at him as a possible Pat Bev injury replacement starter pg. When Bev goes down (which happens a lot) Lou/Sham don't replace Bev's skillset the way Turner would. ET's stats are really similar to Bev's in terms of boards/assists. At the 1, he has the length and height defend other point guards too. That length would better replace the defense we miss when Bev is injured, something Lou and Sham just cannot provide against many other good guards.

The thing that kills this team the most statistically isn't PG13 or Sham can't play, but when Pat can't play. The FO needs to shore that up before playoffs and ET would be a great fit as a glue guy.

True, we are now 7-8 without Bev. And Turner is 6-6.

The best stats on Turner are not on his stat sheet, LOL.

In my best dry/croaked Doc-protecting-Avery-Bradley voice: "He's unstatable!"

[esqtvd]

Read on Twitter

[madmaxmedia]

Reggie Jackson might be an option. If Tristan Thompson changes his mind and goes for the buyout Clippers need to pick him up

Nice call there

[Roscoe Sheed]

It would be great if Thompson got bought out. I like Zubac, but I would trust Thompson more in a tough playoff series

[esqtvd]

It would be great if Thompson got bought out. I like Zubac, but I would trust Thompson more in a tough playoff series

I wonder if the Clips offered Trezz and Harkless's expiring for Horford. Horford is completely wasted there.

[Captain Ballmer]

From yahoo,

Omari Spellman will remain in the G League for Friday's game.

Advice: Minnesota won't call him up vs. the Celtics, despite being without Karl-Anthony Towns (wrist). They seem comfortable rolling with Naz Reid and James Johnson in the middle, and it's unclear if we'll see Spellman in a Wolves jersey at any point this season.

There might be an opportunity in here

[Roscoe Sheed]

It would be great if Thompson got bought out. I like Zubac, but I would trust Thompson more in a tough playoff series

I wonder if the Clips offered Trezz and Harkless's expiring for Horford. Horford is completely wasted there.

Horford would have helped but he isn’t exactly a rim protector

[esqtvd]

It would be great if Thompson got bought out. I like Zubac, but I would trust Thompson more in a tough playoff series

I wonder if the Clips offered Trezz and Harkless's expiring for Horford. Horford is completely wasted there.

Horford would have helped but he isn’t exactly a rim protector

I don't even know what "rim protection" even means at this point except for Rudy Gobert

maybe you missed OG's analysis on the other thread

Trez can’t handle the full size and talent difference of starter level players consistently we tried it. That’s why you have to use numbers in context and Trez is usually going against weaker competition off the bench.

In the larger sense, yes. Trezz is not an NBA starting center. But what OG just proved is that Zubac is not the answer and the Planet Zubac argument [more Zu, therefore less Trezz] is provably contrary to the facts and stats.

Thanks to OG, the numbers ARE in context:

That’s of course the second question, and maybe a harder one to figure out, or maybe not. One way we can attempt to hypothesize is look at two and three man lineups such as Kawhi/Zubac vs Kawhi/Harrell and Lou/Zubac vs Lou/Harrell and Kawhi/George/Zubac vs Kawhi/George/Harrell and try and get a feel for what’s happening there. Of course sample sizes might not be sufficient to make conclusions. Here’s some of that.

With Leonard:
Zubac: 698 mins, 112.5 Ortg, 105.3 Drtg, +7.2 NetRtg
Harrell: 635 mins, 116.8 Ortg, 100.4 Drtg, +16.5 NetRtg

With Williams:
Zubac: 299 mins, 103.1 Ortg, 107.2 Drtg, -4.2 NetRtg
Harrell: 1222 mins, 110.9 Ortg, 106.5 Drtg, +4.4 NetRtg

With Leonard and George:
Zubac: 355 mins, 114.7 Ortg, 104.9 Drtg, +9.8 NetRtg
Harrell: 199 mins, 109.7 Ortg, 97.4 Drtg, +12.3 NetRtg

So the first thing to notice is that when they are on the floor with Kawhi, a combination that has good and similar sample sizes for both, the units with Harrell is really mopping the floor with the units that have Zubac. This is certainly a good argument for the coaching staffs use of Harrell. That unit is also 5 points/100 better on defense.

Second is that when you isolate each with Williams, we see that Harrell is actually still winning on both ends, but also that Zubac does not provide enough offensive help and there’s a drastic drop off offensively. Overall there’s a 8.2 point/100 difference in team production, and again, defensively, you’re still getting a better result with Harrell. Large discrepancy in sample size here though.

Now we look at with both George and Leonard, and we see something different offensively, we get a drop there, and maybe surprising to some, but defensively again, the lineups with Harrell win by a large margin, this time 7.5 pts/100 better on defense, and still having a better NetRtg despite being inferior on offense.

That’s a lot of data pointing in one direction and should certainly be analyzed and taken into account.

The Bench Lineups
In terms of the bench struggling defensively, SlayrofDynasties mentioning of the 3 man combination of Williams/Shamet/Harrell is telling, and obviously it makes sense. Two smaller guards like that can be trouble on defense depending on who the players are. With Williams, Shamet will get forced to guard less favourable matchups for him, reducing his defensive effectiveness, and Williams is just not a good defender either way.

Williams/Harrell/Shamet: 460 mins, 110.0 Ortg, 110.9 Drtg, -1.0 NetRtg

BUT, If we add Leonard to the Williams/Shamet combo:
Williams/Leonard/Shamet: 249 mins, 112.9 Ortg, 107.5 Drtg, +5.3 NetRtg

So Kawhi is able to balance out that combination when he plays with them.

Okay, what about having Leonard on with Williams and Harrell?
Leonard/Williams/Harrell: 464 mins, 114.8 Ortg, 98.8 Drtg, +16.0 NetRtg

The lineups with Leonard/Williams/Harrell is actually one of the strongest 3 man combinations on the team. So Kawhi has been a balancing force for the Williams/Harrell combo in a whole season sense, they are elite both on offense and defense for their 464 minutes. If we look at 3 man lineups with 150+ mins, out of the top 15 in Drtg, Harrell is part of 7 of them. In the top 20, he’s part of 10 of the 20. Zubac on the other hand is part of just 1 of the top 15, and that is 12th, and just two in the top 20. Harrell is part of the best 3 man unit with 150+ minutes, Beverley/Leonard/Harrell (246 mins, 122.5 Ortg, 91.1 Drtg, +31.4 NetRtg).


Since January
Piggy backing off the other thread about Williams and Harrell in the New Year, since January:

With Leonard:
Zubac: 293 mins, 115.9 Ortg, 110.5 Drtg, +5.5 NetRtg
Harrell: 225 mins, 120.5 Ortg, 108.8 Drtg, +11.8 NetRtg

With Williams:
Zubac: 121 mins, 103.0 Ortg, 109.3 Drtg, -6.3 NetRtg
Harrell: 456 mins, 110.2 Ortg, 111.7 Drtg, -1.5 NetRtg

With George and Leonard:
Zubac: 83 mins, 114.0 Ortg, 110.7 Drtg, +3.3 NetRtg
Harrell: 32 mins, 113.6 Ortg, 102.9 Drtg, +10.7 NetRtg

Williams/Leonard/Harrell: 171 mins, 118.4 Ortg, 107.6 Drtg, +10.8 NetRtg

I’ll have to say that I did not necessarily expect the numbers to look like this, but if we’re using lineup data and normalizing to an extent for who is on the court with the bigs (Zubac vs Harrell), lineups with Harrell are winning by a landslide when it comes to defense and overall net per possession production. This is both for the season as a whole and since the start of the new year.

So even in that sample size since January, you’re still getting a better result both offensive and defensively when you pair Kawhi and Harrell vs pairing Kawhi and Zubac. Playing either with Williams suggest that you are still getting a better overall result with Harrell, and then combined with the w/Leonard and w/George+Leonard data suggests that Harrell on his own is not giving an inferior defensive result to Zubac, but it is the pieces around them making the difference. The data is actually leaning towards Harrell giving a superior defensive contribution altogether, though it is not comprehensive and complete data to make a definitive statement like that. We also see that the Williams/Leonard/Harrell lineup even in January has been performing very well.

Everything I've been saying is borne out by the facts. A big HT to OG for digging beneath the surface stats looking for the truth, and surprising both of us that the case for Trezz [and even Lou] is even stronger than you'd think.

I think people have posted stats that Zubac is one of the best "rim protectors" in the NBA and I won't dispute that for the sake of argument. But so what?

OG: I’ll have to say that I did not necessarily expect the numbers to look like this, but if we’re using lineup data and normalizing to an extent for who is on the court with the bigs (Zubac vs Harrell), lineups with Harrell are winning by a landslide when it comes to defense and overall net per possession production. This is both for the season as a whole and since the start of the new year.

So even in that sample size since January, you’re still getting a better result both offensive and defensively when you pair Kawhi and Harrell vs pairing Kawhi and Zubac.

I was assuming that at 6'10" and able to shoot a bit from 3 [36% lifetime], Horford is a more legit NBA center than either Trezz or Zu. Are you disagreeing?

[esqtvd]

here's our chance boys

I smell Larry



https://basketball.realgm.com/wiretap/257297/Lance-Stephenson-Looking-To-Return-To-NBA