Discussing Other Teams' Moves - Part 7

gambitx777 · Post #861 » by **gambitx777** » Sat Feb 8, 2020 8:51 pm

Not alot of noise on the buy out market ?

Sent from my SM-G965U1 using RealGM mobile app

payitforward · Post #862 » by **payitforward** » Sat Feb 8, 2020 9:41 pm

nate33 wrote:
payitforward wrote:Players taken #45 or later since 2008, include:

Goran Dragic, Danny Green, Patty Mills, Lavoy Allen, E'Twaun Moore, Isaiah Thomas, Kyle O'Quinn, Darius Miller, Mike Muscala, Raul Neto, Dwight Powell, Jordan Clarkson, Jordan McRae, Norman Powell, Jake Layman, Abdel Nader, Dillon Brooks, Damyean Dotson, Monte Morris, Edmund Sumner, Hamidou Diallo, De'Anthony Melton, Steve Mykhialuk, Keita Bates-Diop, Chimezie Metu, Alize Johnson, Shake Milton, Kevin Hervey, Ray Spalding, Quinndary Weatherspoon, Isaiah Roby, Talen Horton-Tucker, Ignas Brazdeikis, Terance Mann, Jarrell Brantley, Tremont Waters, Jalen McDaniels, Justin Wright-Foreman, Marial Shayok, Kyle Guy, Jordan Bone, Miye Oni, Dewan Hernandez.

Obviously, there are some outstanding players on that list, as well as some solid players who have played (or did play) significant minutes reasonably well. I didn't include undrafted players -- who, obviously, would have been available to any team w/ one of those #45 or lower picks.

Dragic - drafted 45th. I said, "lower than 45th or so"
Green - was waived after 2 years. Later signed as a free agent. Provided no value as a draft pick.
Mills - was waived after 1 year. Later signed as a free agent. Provided no value as a draft pick.
Allen - mediocre player available for the vet minimum after his rookie contract was up.
Moore - was waived after 1 year. Later signed as a free agent. Provided no value as a draft pick.
Thomas - a good example of value late in the draft.
O'Quinn - a good example of value late in the draft.
Miller - was waived after 2 years. Later signed as a free agent. Provided no value as a draft pick.
Muscala - drafted 44th. I said, "lower than 45th or so".
Neto - had one half-decent year his rookie season and was a 3rd stringer thereafter.
D.Powell - drafted 45th. I said, "lower than 45th or so"
Clarkson - a good example of value late in the draft. Though he was picked 46th.
McRae - was waived after 1 month. Later signed as a free agent. Provided no value as a draft pick.
N.Powell - a good example of value late in the draft. Though he was picked 46th.
Layman - had one decent year as a rotation player. Ultimately traded for the 59th pick.
Nader - has given no indication that he'll stick around past his rookie contract.
Brooks - drafted 45th. I said, "lower than 45th or so"
M.Morris - possibly an example of value late in the draft.

All the rest of the guys you listed have only been in the league a year or two and haven't proven to be worth anything more than your average undrafted walk-on. To avoid having to predict the future, let's just ignore the last 2 years and focus on 2008 to 2017.

Basically, there were 5 guys from 2008 to 2017 picked 46th or later that actually had value: IT, O'Quinn, Clarkson, Norman Powell and Monte Morris. And 2 of those guys were picked with the 46th pick. If we are generous with my "or so" modifier, there were just 3 guys out of 140 picks between 47th and 60th from 2008 to 2017 that had value. A 2% success rate. And only IT became a legit starter.

I suspect the success rate on undrafted walk-ons is higher, or at least the risk is reduced because you can easily sign them to two-way contracts and cycle through them quickly without burdening your roster or your cap.

I stand behind my statement. Late 2nd rounders, (47th or later, to be specific) are virtually worthless.

Picky picky!

But, you are right. In fact, it would be interesting to do the same exercise for a range well above the last 15. Just to see how the overall value changes from range to range in the draft. My guess is that we'd all be surprised by how low the yields look.

FAH1223 · Post #863 » by **FAH1223** » Sun Feb 9, 2020 12:25 am

Read on Twitter

gambitx777 · Post #864 » by **gambitx777** » Sun Feb 9, 2020 12:28 am

Thank God we can't sign him back!

FAH1223 wrote:

Read on Twitter

Sent from my SM-G965U1 using RealGM mobile app

payitforward · Post #865 » by **payitforward** » Sun Feb 9, 2020 3:05 am

nate33 wrote:
Spoiler:
payitforward wrote:Players taken #45 or later since 2008, include:

Goran Dragic, Danny Green, Patty Mills, Lavoy Allen, E'Twaun Moore, Isaiah Thomas, Kyle O'Quinn, Darius Miller, Mike Muscala, Raul Neto, Dwight Powell, Jordan Clarkson, Jordan McRae, Norman Powell, Jake Layman, Abdel Nader, Dillon Brooks, Damyean Dotson, Monte Morris, Edmund Sumner, Hamidou Diallo, De'Anthony Melton, Steve Mykhialuk, Keita Bates-Diop, Chimezie Metu, Alize Johnson, Shake Milton, Kevin Hervey, Ray Spalding, Quinndary Weatherspoon, Isaiah Roby, Talen Horton-Tucker, Ignas Brazdeikis, Terance Mann, Jarrell Brantley, Tremont Waters, Jalen McDaniels, Justin Wright-Foreman, Marial Shayok, Kyle Guy, Jordan Bone, Miye Oni, Dewan Hernandez.

Obviously, there are some outstanding players on that list, as well as some solid players who have played (or did play) significant minutes reasonably well. I didn't include undrafted players -- who, obviously, would have been available to any team w/ one of those #45 or lower picks.

Dragic - drafted 45th. I said, "lower than 45th or so"
Green - was waived after 2 years. Later signed as a free agent. Provided no value as a draft pick.
Mills - was waived after 1 year. Later signed as a free agent. Provided no value as a draft pick.
Allen - mediocre player available for the vet minimum after his rookie contract was up.
Moore - was waived after 1 year. Later signed as a free agent. Provided no value as a draft pick.
Thomas - a good example of value late in the draft.
O'Quinn - a good example of value late in the draft.
Miller - was waived after 2 years. Later signed as a free agent. Provided no value as a draft pick.
Muscala - drafted 44th. I said, "lower than 45th or so".
Neto - had one half-decent year his rookie season and was a 3rd stringer thereafter.
D.Powell - drafted 45th. I said, "lower than 45th or so"
Clarkson - a good example of value late in the draft. Though he was picked 46th.
McRae - was waived after 1 month. Later signed as a free agent. Provided no value as a draft pick.
N.Powell - a good example of value late in the draft. Though he was picked 46th.
Layman - had one decent year as a rotation player. Ultimately traded for the 59th pick.
Nader - has given no indication that he'll stick around past his rookie contract.
Brooks - drafted 45th. I said, "lower than 45th or so"
M.Morris - possibly an example of value late in the draft.

All the rest of the guys you listed have only been in the league a year or two and haven't proven to be worth anything more than your average undrafted walk-on. To avoid having to predict the future, let's just ignore the last 2 years and focus on 2008 to 2017.

Basically, there were 5 guys from 2008 to 2017 picked 46th or later that actually had value: IT, O'Quinn, Clarkson, Norman Powell and Monte Morris. And 2 of those guys were picked with the 46th pick. If we are generous with my "or so" modifier, there were just 3 guys out of 140 picks between 47th and 60th from 2008 to 2017 that had value. A 2% success rate. And only IT became a legit starter.

I suspect the success rate on undrafted walk-ons is higher, or at least the risk is reduced because you can easily sign them to two-way contracts and cycle through them quickly without burdening your roster or your cap.

I stand behind my statement. Late 2nd rounders, (47th or later, to be specific) are virtually worthless.

You are right in every fact you cite, & no one could argue that a pick from the late 40's down to the end of the draft is worth much. The one place I think you take a misstep has no bearing on your overall point. That is, it is true that e.g. McRae provided no value to the team that drafted him -- but I can also find, & easily, players taken in the top 10 in the draft who provided no value to the team that drafted them but were examples all the same of good players available in R1 (Ekpe Udoh, Jahlil Okafor, & Whiteside come to mind immediately, but there are plenty of others. O.J. Mayo).

To me the question is only: "are there sufficient good players available in the 2d half of R2 to make it worth something to have one of those picks."

To be sure, overall & over time, picks in the 2d half of R2 have proven to be worth less than, say, picks in the 10 spots preceding them (in fact, I illustrated that point in the inaccurate examples on my list!). But... it points to what I do think is very interesting: that is, all this is interesting to me -- but not as an argument with you. I virtually -- ahem -- never have a reason to argue with you. It's interesting as a way to think about how the draft works -- how & how often it yields value.

Let me illustrate what I mean. Here is a list of 10 players: Cory Joseph, Jimmy Butler, Rudy Gobert, Pascal Siakam, Larry Nance, Clint Capela, Taj Gibson, Darren Collison, Dejounte Murray, Reggie Jackson.

In no particular order, those are, to me, the 10 best guys drafted from 21-30 in R1 of the 8 drafts from '09 to '16.

Here's a list of another 14 players: DeMarre Carroll, Wayne Ellington, Trevor Booker, Quincy Pondexter, Kenneth Faried, Nikola Mirotic, Marquis Teague, Andre Roberson, Gorgui Dieng, Tim Hardaway, Shabazz Napier, Bogdan Bogdanovic, Kyle Anderson, Kevon Looney.

Also taken from 21-30 in those same drafts, those guys too are/were good. People can disagree about the 2 lists, want to move someone from one to the other. It doesn't matter for my purposes. Bear with me, please.

Here are the other 56 players chosen from 21-30 in those drafts:

Spoiler:

When we talk about the "worth" of something or of someone's services, we always mean worth compared to cost. That's a list of bad players. But, I wouldn't be surprised if the 56 guys on that last list have been over $200 million -- maybe well over. & pretty much every one of them got paid (or is still getting paid) for a couple of years or more on the rookie contract scale. Some of them, because they were R1 picks, got multiple chances to succeed past their rookie scale contracts. In fact, some of them got big pay days that reflected not how they played but the fact that GMs were, or still are, convinced that they play differently from how they play!

Success in the NBA comes from having "plus players" -- guys worth more than they're paid. Without that you go nowhere. Shabazz Napier is making @ $1.5m this year. He's a better player straight up than Bobby Portis -- it jumps out from the numbers. Bobby Portis is making $15m, ten times as much.

You make the point that an undrafted guy is a better deal than a guy taken in the bottom 15. Makes sense (leaving out the fact that you have to compete for that guy; someone else may sign him -- no problem if you take him w/ a low draft pick).

How does Portis compare value-wise to either the walk-on or the #51 pick that Morris was?

Well, once the Knicks pick up his option, he'll have made over $40m as an NBA player. Jabari Parker has already made $40m. Yet, you know what? Gary Clark, available with one of those bottom picks 2 years ago, has turned out to be a better player than either of those guys. So has Danuel House (a guy I thought had no chance whatever -- wrong again). Both undrafted. Both, therefore, available with a very late R2 pick.

FAH1223 · Post #866 » by **FAH1223** » Tue Feb 11, 2020 4:43 am

Read on Twitter

gambitx777 · Post #867 » by **gambitx777** » Thu Feb 13, 2020 4:24 am

Read on Twitter

?s=19

Could Beal make it after all?

Sent from my SM-G965U1 using RealGM mobile app

Kanyewest · Post #868 » by **Kanyewest** » Thu Feb 13, 2020 5:29 am

No- they will replace Lillard with someone from the Western Conference.

gambitx777 · Post #869 » by **gambitx777** » Thu Feb 13, 2020 5:54 am

I was kind of wondering if it mattered any more with the teams mixed .

Kanyewest wrote:No- they will replace Lillard with someone from the Western Conference.

Sent from my SM-G965U1 using RealGM mobile app

closg00 · Post #870 » by **closg00** » Thu Feb 13, 2020 5:20 pm

DET is calling Maker/Woods the "Thin Towers", too-bad we didn't get Woods like we wanted, Woods > AP

Watch on YouTube

gambitx777 · Post #871 » by **gambitx777** » Tue Feb 18, 2020 12:05 am

Read on Twitter

?s=19

So SAS they are gonna eat 6 mill next year and 1.3 the year after cutting him. All this because they didn't wanna keep one of the best shooters in the game today to sign a guy who didn't sign . Crazy mistake.

I like green and caroll to the rockets they fit and they might help them on the boards a bit and can hit 3s

Sent from my SM-G965U1 using RealGM mobile app

FAH1223 · Post #872 » by **FAH1223** » Tue Feb 18, 2020 1:27 am

Read on Twitter

gambitx777 · Post #873 » by **gambitx777** » Tue Feb 18, 2020 4:15 am

It's too bad I like heartenstein! They are living and dying on that small ball.

FAH1223 wrote:

Read on Twitter

Sent from my SM-G965U1 using RealGM mobile app

gambitx777 · Post #874 » by **gambitx777** » Tue Feb 18, 2020 11:10 pm

Jackson to the clipers is interesting . Not many options left for the lake show to up grade.

Sent from my SM-G965U1 using RealGM mobile app

gambitx777 · Post #875 » by **gambitx777** » Sat Feb 22, 2020 12:33 am

Read on Twitter

?s=19

??????????? Cut Payton and sign him??? Vet min favor for Walls homie ?

Sent from my SM-G965U1 using RealGM mobile app

long suffrin' boulez fan · Post #876 » by **long suffrin' boulez fan** » Sat Feb 22, 2020 1:56 am

Sign Boogie. Why not?

Post #877 » by **nate33** » Sat Feb 22, 2020 2:46 am

long suffrin' boulez fan wrote:Sign Boogie. Why not?

Because he can't guard a lamp post.

gambitx777 · Post #878 » by **gambitx777** » Sat Feb 22, 2020 2:59 am

nate33 wrote:
long suffrin' boulez fan wrote:Sign Boogie. Why not?

Because he can't guard a lamp post.

I mean it would just be a favor and really wouldn't mean much , at least he got paid. Maybe he goes and signs with the sun's or something or back with GS

Sent from my SM-G965U1 using RealGM mobile app

long suffrin' boulez fan · Post #879 » by **long suffrin' boulez fan** » Sat Feb 22, 2020 4:04 pm

nate33 wrote:
long suffrin' boulez fan wrote:Sign Boogie. Why not?

Because he can't guard a lamp post.

In all fairness, some of these lamp posts coming out of Eastern Europe are better than they used to be.

payitforward · Post #880 » by **payitforward** » Sat Feb 22, 2020 5:00 pm

First off, we wouldn't be doing Cousins a favor -- his money is guaranteed, & he's gonna spend the next couple of months in warm weather.

Secondly, we don't need him; above all we don't need him next year, so why create a situation in which that issue even comes up?

Sign the lamp post instead.