2020 Draft

[NatP4]

Did I miss the Haliburton talk on this board? or do you guys not like him?

I think he's the real deal. Lock to be a really good NBA role player

[Shoe]

I'd say there are two models of center that are successful defensively in the NBA. The most common is the extremely long and fairly mobile rim protector like Rudy Gobert, Anthony Davis, Brook Lopez or Clint Capela. The other type is the stout, long-armed, switchable, exceptionally mobile guy with great instincts like Bam Adebayo, Draymond Green or Wendell Carter.

If you have neither profile, chances are, you won't be a very good defensive center. Wiseman fits the profile of the rim protector. But I wouldn't rule out Okongwu as a starting-caliber center because he might fit the profile of the stout, long-armed switchable type. (To be fair, those guys are fairly rare. The swing skill for them is basketball IQ. Some guys can adapt to the complicated NBA schemes, some guys can't.)

Great point about the two profiles of the modern center. I overlooked guys like Adebayo, Harrell and I could see Okongwu become that roamer on switches and screen and rolls.

Love them both...
Im locking in on high IQ/Defensive players at this point. Our offense is near elite and watching guys like Bonga, Wagner, and Gpii make the team far more dynamic and enjoyable to watch.

Blocks are important, but im locking in on Steals, Ast:Tov ratio, FTr, and rebounding... so I think I've narrowed down the players that will help be culture setters where they go and solid players:
Bigs:
Lotto: Okongwu: Size aside, Big men who gather STOCKS (Blocks + Steals), dont foul, and score effortlessly are Locks in the NBA.

The STOCKS is brilliant. Nice breakdown (I'm trimming your quote so the page isn't so long but I agree with all of it)

[payitforward]

[
Bear in mind that we are limited by the size of the roster and the feasibility of grooming so many youngsters at once while also having enough good players to keep Wall and Beal happy. This year was a throwaway season and I'm sure Beal understood that (even if he did express some frustration from time to time). Next year, I don't think Wall and Beal will be that enthusiastic if we sacrifice wins in order to develop players.

We already have the following players under contract:
Wall, Beal, Ish, Brown, Hachimura, Bryant, Wagner, Bonga, Schofield, Robinson. That's 10 guys for sure.

On top of that, the following players have varying likelihoods of being on the roster:
Bertans
Mathews
Napier
Pasecniks
MLE vet

So that's probably at least 12 and maybe as much as 15.

Then we have the draft picks to consider.

I just don't see us trading a high pick for multiple lower picks. If anything, we'll be looking to draft-and-stash our 2nd rounder.

I just want to quote this because I think it's spot on. I can't see us walking away with more than 2 players, and I wouldn't be surprised if we come away with 1 player and 1 draft and stash.

As I just wrote, we have no history of trading down during the time Tommy's been with the team, & he didn't trade down last year (when IMO it would have made a whole lot of sense, even more than usual). So, I agree that it's unlikely.

I also follow why you think we might draft-&-stash, nate. Roster space. But we're a long way from the draft, & who knows what happens in that regard. Not to mention that it's a question whether we are able to retain Bertans (i.e. at a price we can afford & want to pay).

Hence, it's not hard for me to imagine us adding 2 rookies. E.g. if we keep all 9 of our guaranteed guys plus Bonga, add Mathews & re-sign Bertans, that leaves 3 roster spots -- room for our R1 & R2 picks plus one other guy. So, to take a random example, if we buy #50 from Elton Brand & take e.g. Xavier Tillman, we have room for him.

Plus, we still have two spots for 2-way players. Every team is actually filling 17 roster spots nowadays. In fact, even if we retain Napier (or sign a FA), we can still buy that pick & put Tillman on a 2-way. Or, for that matter, draft/stash @#38, then... well you get the idea! Lots of ways to roll.

[Ruzious]

Did I miss the Haliburton talk on this board? or do you guys not like him?

I think he's the real deal. Lock to be a really good NBA role player

Yeah, real good 2-way player with a high floor but probably not a high ceiling. I think he'll go around 10th. He's a possibility for the Wiz pick.

[Ruzious]

It'd be hard to know who would be there at 17 until after we'd made the trade (doh). If Hayes is all he's cracked up to be, I take your point.

I'd like to hear what you would do and what you think Tommy Sheppard will do. I assume they're different but maybe not.

At this point, I don't know who I'd take at #9; I just haven't done the work yet.

As to trading down from that spot, my default would be to do it (for reasons which I've cited so often that I won't bore anyone w/ repetition), but of course there too one does have to look at the prospects in the draft.

As to what Tommy will do... it'd be hard for me to know! So far, he hasn't traded down in any draft (assuming he had a big hand in the drafts of the EG era). OTOH, we've traded up twice in the last ten years. So, if I had to project, I don't think he's likely to trade down, & I don't see a likely way to trade up.

IOW, though I'd like to get 3 players out of this draft, it seems unlikely. If it does happen, my guess is Tommy will have bought a R2 pick as he did last year. The Sixers have 3 of them -- #s 33, 35, & 50. That last one could get Ruz & my pick hit, Tres Tinkle. Maybe even Tillman...?

Good discussion - I'd love to get Tillman with the 2nd rounder Tommy got in the Sato trade. Tinkle - I wouldn't draft him; I'd look at him as a UDFA to develop in the G League.

[Shoe]

At this point, I don't know who I'd take at #9; I just haven't done the work yet.

As to trading down from that spot, my default would be to do it (for reasons which I've cited so often that I won't bore anyone w/ repetition), but of course there too one does have to look at the prospects in the draft.

As to what Tommy will do... it'd be hard for me to know! So far, he hasn't traded down in any draft (assuming he had a big hand in the drafts of the EG era). OTOH, we've traded up twice in the last ten years. So, if I had to project, I don't think he's likely to trade down, & I don't see a likely way to trade up.

IOW, though I'd like to get 3 players out of this draft, it seems unlikely. If it does happen, my guess is Tommy will have bought a R2 pick as he did last year. The Sixers have 3 of them -- #s 33, 35, & 50. That last one could get Ruz & my pick hit, Tres Tinkle. Maybe even Tillman...?

Good reminder about those Sixers picks. I just looked up Tres Tinkle and it's funny he plays for Oregon State and Payton Pritchard plays for Oregon, two alliterative potential 2nd rounders.

Did I miss the Haliburton talk on this board? or do you guys not like him?

I think he's the real deal. Lock to be a really good NBA role player

Yeah, real good 2-way player with a high floor but probably not a high ceiling. I think he'll go around 10th. He's a possibility for the Wiz pick.

I used to be high on him after the u19 tournament but I don't know about his upside. Maybe he can still excel with his slender frame.

[payitforward]

Another way to look at it: last year, as the season wound down, we were debating whether to keep Bobby Portis & if so for how much $$. Ditto Jabari Parker. I was calling for us to retain Sam Dekker at a bargain rate. We were pretty sure we'd still have Dwight Howard (since he'd be likely to pick up his option). Most people thought we should (& probably would) keep Jeff Green, maybe re-sign Trevor Ariza, & almost certainly keep Tomas Satoransky.

If an alien who'd seen the future had logged in & said: "by this time next year, 10 guys 23 or under (most of whom you've never heard of) will have played for your team -- plus a 24 year old you've never heard of too," we would have laughed him off the planet! Or else, if we believed him, many/most of us would have had a fit!

Right?

Yet, that's what happened -- & it turns out to be an incredible, utterly welcome breath of fresh air! So... I'm thinking that we have no idea at all of what's coming. If it's even more change, even more radical change than this season (ok, that seems impossible!), then I welcome it -- because there is nothing this franchise has needed more than change in many a decade.

Bring it on!

[payitforward]

:roll:

The least skilled players in the NCAA are centers. It's why Oturu is projected to be a late first rounder and why Okongwu isn't a lock for the top 10. The NBA is a different beast when it comes to big men.
Oturu scored 29 against Purdue, but Matt Haarms a 7 foot junior who probably can't cut it in the G-League got 26. Oturu dropped 32 on Penn State, but 6'8 Lamar Steven's scored 33. Minnesota lost both games.

projection > production. Height, wingspan, vertical. The NBAs got 6'7 and 6'8 wings like Luka and LeBron that centers have to rim protect against. Gobert, Jokic, Embiid, Vucevic, Sabonis, Towns are all around that 7 foot mark. I'd say it's Wiseman or we don't take a five, that's just my take, you'd be really rolling the dice to think we'd get someone better than Bryant.

I'd say there are two models of center that are successful defensively in the NBA. The most common is the extremely long and fairly mobile rim protector like Rudy Gobert, Anthony Davis, Brook Lopez or Clint Capela. The other type is the stout, long-armed, switchable, exceptionally mobile guy with great instincts like Bam Adebayo, Draymond Green or Wendell Carter.

If you have neither profile, chances are, you won't be a very good defensive center. Wiseman fits the profile of the rim protector. But I wouldn't rule out Okongwu as a starting-caliber center because he might fit the profile of the stout, long-armed switchable type. (To be fair, those guys are fairly rare. The swing skill for them is basketball IQ. Some guys can adapt to the complicated NBA schemes, some guys can't.)

This is great, nate -- turn this into an essay, more detailed, then send it to someone at the Athletic or Stepien or... somewhere. You should be an analyst; you got skillz. (not saying quit your day job! but, you know... get it out there! Just don't disappear like Kevin!! )

[payitforward]

Ok, cool. Myself, I don't start looking seriously until March, so I have little to say about any of these guys except what I get from their numbers. Numbers are the price of admission but not the final arbiter of choices (except when they are -- i.e. when they are overwhelmingly better than anyone else's at the draft pick in question, as in Zion's case & Clarke's).

Right, and I'd rather get 1 great player in the draft than 2 good players.

Or a great player & a good one rather than one maybe-good one. Or a good one & a bad one rather than just a bad one. Or...

But, the high-order bit is: get one good one! I.e. rather than waste the draft opportunity.

& you have a much better chance at one good one, if you can take 2 guys. Just as you have a better chance of getting a hit if you have two at bats. Or, if I get 5 downs to your 4 downs, I beat you. If I get 3 serves & you only get 2, I win the tennis match. The more mulligans you give me the more likely I win our golf tournament.

In 2012, the Warriors took Harrison Barnes #7 -- a classic over-rated lottery pick who also became over-paid (b/c he was "good" not "great") so they let him walk. They took Festus Ezeli #30 -- his career was halted early by unforeseeable health problems. They took Draymond Green #35 -- bam! home run! They took Ognjen Kuzmić #52 -- hey, it's always nice to get another at bat! Once in a while you get IT....

IOW, you want a great player? Make more picks; you'll have a better chance of getting one. Doh!

[DCZards]

I'd say there are two models of center that are successful defensively in the NBA. The most common is the extremely long and fairly mobile rim protector like Rudy Gobert, Anthony Davis, Brook Lopez or Clint Capela. The other type is the stout, long-armed, switchable, exceptionally mobile guy with great instincts like Bam Adebayo, Draymond Green or Wendell Carter.

If you have neither profile, chances are, you won't be a very good defensive center. Wiseman fits the profile of the rim protector. But I wouldn't rule out Okongwu as a starting-caliber center because he might fit the profile of the stout, long-armed switchable type. (To be fair, those guys are fairly rare. The swing skill for them is basketball IQ. Some guys can adapt to the complicated NBA schemes, some guys can't.)

Great observation Nat. There does seem to be two distinct types of successful defensive big men in today’s NBA. I’d add Montez Harrell to the list of stout, mobile bigs with great instincts.

I’ve been very impressed with the development of Bam. He doesn’t shoot the 3 but his all around game is excellent, especially his passing.

I’d prefer to see the Zards draft a player in that first group. A shotblocker like Gobert, Davis, even Brook are true game-changers. (I'd put Whiteside in that group as well.) Opponents looking to take shots in the paint have to always be wary of these rim protectors.

But I'd happily settle for the stout, switchable type like Okongwu...as long as he's also an outstanding rebounder.

[Hibachi_0]

Hi everyone! I've been reading you all for a while but never commented.

There's an international prospect from which I haven't read much in any mock draft or scouting report : Leandro Bolmaro

Bolmaro is a 6' 7" guard currently playing for Barcelona(not having many minutes in a team full of euroleague stars, but playing well when given the oportunity) who could have declared for last year's draft but decided to remain in Europe and has just declared for this one.

He's listed as SG, however has played a lot of minutes as PG because of his great passing instincts and correct ball-handling skills. His socring ability really needs to be polished, but has the physical tools, the "touch" to improve. Leandro isn't a great shooter right now, but has good mechanics and has been really improving recently, specially in spot ups. Defensively, I have not seen enough of him to form an opinion about positioning, but is a good 1-on-1 defender with really active hands and quicker feet than what might seem for a 6' 7" player from Argentina.

I think it would be interseting to use our 2nd in him, he can turn into a really interesting player.

Here there's some footage of him with Barcelona's first and second teams:

Watch on YouTube

Watch on YouTube

[DCZards]

Or a great player & a good one rather than one maybe-good one. Or a good one & a bad one rather than just a bad one. Or...

But, the high-order bit is: get one good one! I.e. rather than waste the draft opportunity.

& you have a much better chance at one good one, if you can take 2 guys. Just as you have a better chance of getting a hit if you have two at bats. Or, if I get 5 downs to your 4 downs, I beat you. If I get 3 serves & you only get 2, I win the tennis match. The more mulligans you give me the more likely I win our golf tournament.

In 2012, the Warriors took Harrison Barnes #7 -- a classic over-rated lottery pick who also became over-paid (b/c he was "good" not "great") so they let him walk. They took Festus Ezeli #30 -- his career was halted early by unforeseeable health problems. They took Draymond Green #35 -- bam! home run! They took Ognjen Kuzmić #52 -- hey, it's always nice to get another at bat! Once in a while you get IT....

IOW, you want a great player? Make more picks; you'll have a better chance of getting one. Doh!

Yes, it’s wise to get as many at bats as possible, but isn’t it also true that most of the home runs are in the top 15 draft picks. Only four of this year’s 24 all-stars were picked after 15—Siakim, Middleton, Gobert and Butler. In fact, most of the players on the all-star team were top ten picks.

There are exceptions, but I think it’s safe to say that you’re much more likely to find an all-star or all-NBA player in the top 15 picks than in picks later in the draft.

So if you think--and of course there’s no way of telling for sure--that the guy you’re drafting at #8, 9 or 10 could be a future all-star, you should probably swing for the fences and draft that player, rather than trading that pick for, say, picks 18 & 26, where drafting an all-star is less likely. To win big in the NBA, teams need to at least occasionally hit a home run on draft day. That’s why teams rarely trade out of the lottery.

[payitforward]

He looks quick, strong & creative. Especially for a 19-year old. He has a floater &... a hook! He seems to use his hands well, a creative passer.

Of course, it's hard to evaluate him w/ any certainty, because he's competing against talent that's not at the NBA level. Still.. he's definitely a talented kid! Seems likely he's on Tommy's radar.

Nate's thinking we'll draft & stash in R2 this year -- might well bring Bolmaro into play....

[payitforward]

Or a great player & a good one rather than one maybe-good one. Or a good one & a bad one rather than just a bad one. Or...

But, the high-order bit is: get one good one! I.e. rather than waste the draft opportunity.

& you have a much better chance at one good one, if you can take 2 guys. Just as you have a better chance of getting a hit if you have two at bats. Or, if I get 5 downs to your 4 downs, I beat you. If I get 3 serves & you only get 2, I win the tennis match. The more mulligans you give me the more likely I win our golf tournament.

In 2012, the Warriors took Harrison Barnes #7 -- a classic over-rated lottery pick who also became over-paid (b/c he was "good" not "great") so they let him walk. They took Festus Ezeli #30 -- his career was halted early by unforeseeable health problems. They took Draymond Green #35 -- bam! home run! They took Ognjen Kuzmić #52 -- hey, it's always nice to get another at bat! Once in a while you get IT....

IOW, you want a great player? Make more picks; you'll have a better chance of getting one. Doh!

Yes, it’s wise to get as many at bats as possible, but isn’t it also true that most of the home runs are in the top 15 draft picks. Only four of this year’s 24 all-stars were picked after 15—Siakim, Middleton, Gobert and Butler. In fact, most of the players on the all-star team were top ten picks.

There are exceptions, but I think it’s safe to say that you’re much more likely to find an all-star or all-NBA player in the top 15 picks than in picks later in the draft.

So if you think--and of course there’s no way of telling for sure--that the guy you’re drafting at #8, 9 or 10 could be a future all-star, you should probably swing for the fences and draft that player, rather than trading that pick for, say, picks 18 & 26, where drafting an all-star is less likely. To win big in the NBA, teams need to at least occasionally hit a home run on draft day. That’s why teams rarely trade out of the lottery.

Although nearly every "all star" is for sure an outstanding player, it's not the case that the guys on all star squads are "the best players in the league." Not at all.

Thus, at guard team giannis had Trae Young, Kemba Walker, Donovan Mitchell & Kyle Lowry. Team LeBron had Harden, Devin Booker, Chris Paul, Damian Lillard, Ben Simmons & Russell Westbrook.

Of course some of those guys are tremendous. But... Eric Bledsoe, Delon Wright, Donte DiVincenzo, Dejounte Murray, Patrick Beverly, & a number of others I won't bore everyone by listing are either having far better years than several all stars or even have been better year in year out than some of them.

What is absolutely true is that the "all star" guards score a whole lot of points, every one of them. I.e. they have great appeal to the casual fan. &... that's who the All Star game is for.

What is also true is that after pick #3, there is no correlation between how good a player is (not how many points does he score, please note) & where he was picked in the draft.

You are very simply *not* significantly more likely to pick an outstanding player at #10 than you are at #20 or #22. For that reason, if you trade your #10 for those 2 picks, you are actually more likely to get an outstanding player than if you stay at #10.

& when, for example, someone points to Damian Lillard, saying "you don't get a guy like that at #20", I'm inclined to mention Dion Waiters, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist & Thomas Robinson -- all of whom were picked before Lillard.

Oh, & also to point out Will Barton, who was picked 36 spots after Waiters, will never make an all star game, but is having a really good NBA career. He's way better than 8 of the 11 guys taken from #4-14 (i.e. the entire lottery except the top 3 -- & he's better than MK-G too!).

More importantly, he's also better than every single player taken in R1 after the lottery!

Also better than every one of them are Draymond Green, Khris Middleton & Jae Crowder. Oh, wait, I forgot Mike Scott & Kyle O'Quinn, taken further down R2 than those guys. Those guys, however good or bad you think they are, have had 8 year careers by now. OTOH, where are Kendall Marshall, Royce White, Terrance Jones, Andrew Nicholson, Jared Sullinger, Fab Melo, John Jenkins, Jared Cunningham, Tony Wroten, Arnett Moultrie, Perry Jones, Marquis Teague, & Festus Ezeli?

In at least 8 out of 10 drafts I guarantee you that there were 2 guys available at #20 & #22 who, together, are significantly better than the best guy in the draft who was available at #10. & in the few drafts where that is not the case, I guarantee you that "best guy available at #10" had to wait some picks, hearing guys much less good have their names called while he sat twiddling his thumbs.

[Jamaaliver]

Did I miss the Haliburton talk on this board? or do you guys not like him?

I think he's the real deal. Lock to be a really good NBA role player

The kid is nice. I have him pegged as a Malcolm Brogdon caliber player.

Spoiler:

[SUPERBALLMAN]

The least skilled players in the NCAA are centers. It's why Oturu is projected to be a late first rounder and why Okongwu isn't a lock for the top 10. The NBA is a different beast when it comes to big men.
Oturu scored 29 against Purdue, but Matt Haarms a 7 foot junior who probably can't cut it in the G-League got 26. Oturu dropped 32 on Penn State, but 6'8 Lamar Steven's scored 33. Minnesota lost both games.

projection > production. Height, wingspan, vertical. The NBAs got 6'7 and 6'8 wings like Luka and LeBron that centers have to rim protect against. Gobert, Jokic, Embiid, Vucevic, Sabonis, Towns are all around that 7 foot mark. I'd say it's Wiseman or we don't take a five, that's just my take, you'd be really rolling the dice to think we'd get someone better than Bryant.

I'd say there are two models of center that are successful defensively in the NBA. The most common is the extremely long and fairly mobile rim protector like Rudy Gobert, Anthony Davis, Brook Lopez or Clint Capela. The other type is the stout, long-armed, switchable, exceptionally mobile guy with great instincts like Bam Adebayo, Draymond Green or Wendell Carter.

If you have neither profile, chances are, you won't be a very good defensive center. Wiseman fits the profile of the rim protector. But I wouldn't rule out Okongwu as a starting-caliber center because he might fit the profile of the stout, long-armed switchable type. (To be fair, those guys are fairly rare. The swing skill for them is basketball IQ. Some guys can adapt to the complicated NBA schemes, some guys can't.)

This is great, nate -- turn this into an essay, more detailed, then send it to someone at the Athletic or Stepien or... somewhere. You should be an analyst; you got skillz. (not saying quit your day job! but, you know... get it out there! Just don't disappear like Kevin!! )

I don't know about this. Plenty of good centers are 6-10 or under. Off the top of my head ... Andre Drummond, Emeka Okafor, Amare Stoudamire, Ben Wallace, Etan Thomas, Alonzo Mourning.

[youngWizzy]

Did I miss the Haliburton talk on this board? or do you guys not like him?

I think he's the real deal. Lock to be a really good NBA role player

The kid is nice. I have him pegged as a Malcolm Brogdon caliber player.

Spoiler:

He's one of the only players to shoot 50, 40, 80 in the NCAA this season. His stats look pretty good but a couple of things bother me.

1. He never uses his left hand at all. If you watch all his full games you will notice he never ever dribbles, finishes, or goes to his left side.

2. His catch and shoot jumper is a bit slow because of his form and you wonder if he will have to change his jump-shot form despite having success in college.

[Jamaaliver]

Read on Twitter

[SUPERBALLMAN]

Did I miss the Haliburton talk on this board? or do you guys not like him?

I think he's the real deal. Lock to be a really good NBA role player

The kid is nice. I have him pegged as a Malcolm Brogdon caliber player.

Spoiler:

He's one of the only players to shoot 50, 40, 80 in the NCAA this season. His stats look pretty good but a couple of things bother me.

1. He never uses his left hand at all. If you watch all his full games you will notice he never ever dribbles, finishes, or goes to his left side.

2. His catch and shoot jumper is a bit slow because of his form and you wonder if he will have to change his jump-shot form despite having success in college.

Agree. I was really high on Haliburton, LOVED his passing, vision, IQ, demeanor, length, leadership... Then his limitations became more apparent, his shot is a hinderance, lack of quickness/athleticism/explosiveness, durability.

I think a comp might be Shaun Livingston?

[youngWizzy]

The kid is nice. I have him pegged as a Malcolm Brogdon caliber player.

Spoiler:

He's one of the only players to shoot 50, 40, 80 in the NCAA this season. His stats look pretty good but a couple of things bother me.

1. He never uses his left hand at all. If you watch all his full games you will notice he never ever dribbles, finishes, or goes to his left side.

2. His catch and shoot jumper is a bit slow because of his form and you wonder if he will have to change his jump-shot form despite having success in college.

Agree. I was really high on Haliburton, LOVED his passing, vision, IQ, demeanor, length, leadership... Then his limitations became more apparent, his shot is a hinderance, lack of quickness/athleticism/explosiveness, durability.

I think a comp might be Shaun Livingston?

Think I see a slightly better Patrick McCaw. Their stats in college were somewhat close.