2019-20 OKC Thunder Regular Season Thread

Post #561 » by **slick_watts** » Sat Feb 22, 2020 8:43 pm

lu dort is 3rd in the nba in D-RAPTOR. small sample but still interesting. not because of where he's ranked but because his impact is almost all in the 'box' portion of the D-RAPTOR metric and not in the 'on / off' portion.

RAPTOR added play by play and player tracking data to its regression model this season. RPM did too, but RPM does not publish much on the methodology. RAPTOR has three components in its regression model that i think are propelling dort to elite status in his limited minutes. the primary one is offensive fouls drawn. from their methodology page:

Offensive fouls drawn: The same holds for offensive fouls drawn. In fact, they’re worth even more in the RAPM regression. Drawn fouls are rated highly by the regression both because they end a possession (often when the opposing team is in a strong position to score) and because they serve as a stand-in for stout overall on-ball defense. Players who are adept at inducing offensive fouls include Kyle Lowry, Ersan Ilyasova, Marcus Smart, Patrick Beverley and J.J. Barea. These types of players often have higher defensive RAPMs than their traditional defensive statistics would imply, and some of the reason for that is that they’ve been producing a lot of “hidden” defensive value by inducing offensive fouls.

for some reference, here are the offensive fouls drawn per 48 minutes for those players mentioned and lu dort this season:

k lowry: 1.19
e. ilyasova: 0.99
m. smart: 0.79
p. beverly: 1.11
j. barea: 1.65
l. dort: 1.75

pretty interesting. also part of their regression model is distance traveled for perimeter players, which 538 acknowledges is a clunky way of measuring perimeter defender activity (e.g. do they take plays off). lu dort ranks highly on this, also. he's in the top 10 in the league in miles covered defensively per minute.

they also include counterpart scoring. it's not clear whether or not they are using the matchup data which uses the cameras (which, RPM uses) or just calculating positional cross matchups but lu dort probably does well there as well.

the reason i'm mentioning all this is because, in prior years before either of these metrics were using player tracking at all, i don't think you'd find much objective evidence for lu dort being a good defensive player. i'm going to be watching dort's progress closely because it could be an early case study for the player tracking data revealing defensive value as a constituent of an all-in-one metric.

Post #562 » by **ThunderBolt** » Sat Feb 22, 2020 9:00 pm

slick_watts wrote:the reason i'm mentioning all this is because, in prior years before either of these metrics were using player tracking at all, i don't think you'd find much objective evidence for lu dort being a good defensive player. i'm going to be watching dort's progress closely because it could be an early case study for the player tracking data revealing defensive value as a constituent of an all-in-one metric.

Even analytic-centric Morey has been critical of defensive analytics. If defensive analytics didn’t exist, would anyone think Dort isn’t a good defender? He fouls too much and he’s not a finished product but for a 20 year old rookie, it’s impressive. He’s not prime Dre but he’s also quite a bit younger than Dre when he came in to the league.

Thunder Up · Post #563 » by **Thunder Up** » Sat Feb 22, 2020 11:57 pm

ThunderBolt wrote:
slick_watts wrote:the reason i'm mentioning all this is because, in prior years before either of these metrics were using player tracking at all, i don't think you'd find much objective evidence for lu dort being a good defensive player. i'm going to be watching dort's progress closely because it could be an early case study for the player tracking data revealing defensive value as a constituent of an all-in-one metric.

Even analytic-centric Morey has been critical of defensive analytics. If defensive analytics didn’t exist, would anyone think Dort isn’t a good defender? He fouls too much and he’s not a finished product but for a 20 year old rookie, it’s impressive. He’s not prime Dre but he’s also quite a bit younger than Dre when he came in to the league.

He can be very close to Dre as a defender, but imo he won't be able to scratch at that #1 defender in the league status like Dre due to the fact that Dre was, what? 6'7 with a 7'0 wingspan? to go with that elite athleticism? so sad he got hurt.

That said, Dort can be a top 5 perimeter defender for sure, he has shown it and his body composition is crazy... and he's only 20, like you said while dealing with this two-way contract crap still for some reason

The cherry on top with this find, is that he is completely confident on the offensive end already. If he can develop a decently consistent jumper through the rest of this year and the off-season (his form is fine), look out.

Post #564 » by **ThunderBolt** » Mon Feb 24, 2020 11:02 pm

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jambalaya · Post #565 » by **jambalaya** » Tue Feb 25, 2020 1:49 am

Starters with Dort are about -3 per 100/poss. With Ferg was -4. If they care about seed, they should consider changing. If they care about playoffs, they should be testing other things BEFORE then. Which... knowing them, might be something old instead of even newer.

The lineup data screams play the 3 PGS more. Usage is stuck about 8 min / gm. THE SMART THING IMO WOULD BE TO SIGN ANOTHER PG OR TWO TO ALLOW MAXIMIZING THE 3 PG LINEUP, handling the other minutes AND MAYBE ADD EVEN MORE 3 PG TIME.

jambalaya · Post #566 » by **jambalaya** » Tue Feb 25, 2020 2:08 am

They should have been on the phone or a plane to Trey Burke already.

Look at Chasson Randle. Shelvin Mack. Maybe Demetrius Jackson.

Thunder Up · Post #567 » by **Thunder Up** » Tue Feb 25, 2020 4:49 am

If Dre could somehow come back in the next few weeks to month and take all of Nader + Ferguson's minutes..........

jambalaya · Post #568 » by **jambalaya** » Tue Feb 25, 2020 6:43 pm

Thunder reportedly 8-15 against teams .500 and better. But they'll probably keep the sub-optimal lineup approach and not act on my above advice.

jambalaya · Post #569 » by **jambalaya** » Tue Feb 25, 2020 6:51 pm

82games.com W-L profile shows Thunder weakest against good defenses, rebounders and team with strong net ratings. Pretty decent against good offenses. Playoff hope depends on drawing an offensive biased team. The best realistic case for that here would be Rockets.

Post #570 » by **ThunderBolt** » Wed Feb 26, 2020 1:34 pm

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getrichordie · Post #571 » by **getrichordie** » Thu Feb 27, 2020 5:37 am

jambalaya wrote:82games.com W-L profile shows Thunder weakest against good defenses, rebounders and team with strong net ratings. Pretty decent against good offenses. Playoff hope depends on drawing an offensive biased team. The best realistic case for that here would be Rockets.

I mean, that's every team. In other words, water is wet.

jambalaya · Post #572 » by **jambalaya** » Thu Feb 27, 2020 6:36 am

It varies. Some have more trouble with offense compared to defense. Many have less trouble with good rebounding teams than Thunder.

alessandrux · Post #573 » by **alessandrux** » Thu Feb 27, 2020 11:26 pm

Even though the Rockets would be a good story (and because I hope Westbrook has a great post-season run, even though it might hurt a little, I wouldn't mind that they advance) I still hope for the Nuggets in the playoffs. We will be the (huge) underdog in every (realistic) first round series, I would like our chances the best against Jokic et al.

What team would be your prefered first round matchup?

Kizz Fastfists · Post #574 » by **Kizz Fastfists** » Fri Feb 28, 2020 5:54 am

alessandrux wrote:What team would be your prefered first round matchup?

In order:
Memphis (not realistic)
Houston
Utah

Those are the only three West playoff teams I think OKC could beat.

Post #575 » by **Dadouv47** » Fri Feb 28, 2020 12:19 pm

Time to rest CP3 for a couple of weeks in order to secure our pick

getrichordie · Post #576 » by **getrichordie** » Fri Feb 28, 2020 6:41 pm

Kizz Fastfists wrote:
alessandrux wrote:What team would be your prefered first round matchup?

In order:
Memphis (not realistic)
Houston
Utah

Those are the only three West playoff teams I think OKC could beat.

I’d rather Utah than Houston. Who defends Harden?

Post #577 » by **ThunderBolt** » Fri Feb 28, 2020 8:01 pm

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Kizz Fastfists · Post #578 » by **Kizz Fastfists** » Fri Feb 28, 2020 8:10 pm

getrichordie wrote:I’d rather Utah than Houston. Who defends Harden?

OKC has beaten Houston two out of three to this point in the season. Who has been defending Harden? In a 7 game series Harden will have 2 games where it doesn't matter who defends him. The key is to give Russ space from 3 and in the mid-range while denying him the rim. If you can get Russ to be a jump shooter you easily beat Houston in 5-6 games.

Utah is the best 3pt shooting team in the NBA. OKC getting in a shootout probably doesn't go well. Houston shoots a lower percentage from 3 then OKC. Granted Houston has added some 3pt shooting, but OKC should dominate them on the boards and in the paint.

RunOKC · Post #579 » by **RunOKC** » Sat Feb 29, 2020 12:28 am

No one think we can beat Denver? In my mind they're the easiest matchup after Utah

Thunder Up · Post #580 » by **Thunder Up** » Sat Feb 29, 2020 11:42 pm

go get Crabbe right now