2020 Offseason Speculation, free agency, summer trades (keep draft prospect talk in draft thread)

[bwgood77]

We're probably about to find out how they look without Kelly. I think they might miss him more than some here seem to believe.

Personally I don't think it's at Kelly or Bridges thing, I like BOTH starting.

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We will definitely miss him due to a lack of depth. People who talk about moving him are talking about getting something worthwhile in return for him, like Aaron Gordon or something like that. Just losing him without a replacement will be felt.

Our net rating had been great with that lineup but was still a pretty small sample size largely influenced by a blowout or two. I have no reason not to trust it long term, but I don't know that playing as well as the net rating suggested (which was I believe among the best in the NBA) was going to be sustainable.

[bwgood77]

We can't extend Oubre. He has one year left on his contract. Unless we get a player that can produce better than 18/6 with 1.4 steals per game, It seems like a bad idea to move him. I don't know why everyone wants him gone though. He is a solid two way player, and plays with heart every game.

I can only speak for me personally, but I want Oubre gone because he seems unwilling to play within the offense, is super inconsistent, and lacks good basketball IQ. Long-term, I don't think Ayton can reach his offensive potential when playing next to two selfish players in Booker and Oubre, so one of them needs to go. Booker is putting up 26 points a game, efficiently, and at least tries to pass to Ayton occasionally, so it's clear who the odd man out is.

Bridges is the opposite of Oubre, a high IQ basketball player who plays under control, always makes the extra pass, and can be relied upon to to do the right thing. But he doesn't blow kisses, do push ups, and head bob like Kelly, so fans don't like him. The truth is though, Bridges is the better fit at small forward next to Ayton and Booker.

Thoughts on all:
- Kaminsky @ $5 million might be a little expensive, given his most recent injury. Saric I think is about that valuable. I think it's more likely that we keep Kaminsky than Saric, I guess. I'm just worried about his health. He's a second stringer if healthy. He's worth than a stringer if he can't play. He's $5 million and a roster spot either way.
- Carter is a FANTASTIC THIRD-STRINGER. Why get rid of him? He's cheap and can play.
- I'm not in favor of drafting a backup PG. If Ty Jerome can't step into the backup 1 slot, then you find some other way to fill the hole. You can only have so many players at the same position in development.
- Our #1 priority in free agency should be adding a backup 2 for Booker. We need a guy who can step in off the bench and knock down some shots. If that player can also play some PG, that's a bonus. A lot of teams play small, and we could use another 2 guard on defense a lot of the time.

We don't know how much Carter would cost. I imagine he will be really cheap and likely not sought after by other teams but who knows?

[bwgood77]

Kelly Oubre's On/Off Ratings:

ORTG: +5.0 (112 on/107 off) - 3rd best on the team, after Booker (+13) and Rubio (+5.4)
DRTG: -2.8 (112 on/109 off) - 4th worst on the team, after Booker (-4.8), Saric (-3.1) and Ty Jerome (-3.1). I have a bit of trouble grasping this, I don't see Kelly as a bad defender, even though he gambles a lot.
NET RATING: +2.2 - 5th best on the team, the worst among starters, who all have at least twice his rating differential.

He has always rated slightly negative on defense by many of the advanced metrics, but the RAPTOR rating has him slightly positive. I think he is a pretty good one on one defender and makes some highlight defensive plays (blocks/steals). But it's more team defense, off ball, and awareness when it comes to the biggest issues.



https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-nba-player-ratings/

RPM still has him pretty negative (70th in overall RPM for SFs though obviously that includes some players who didn't play much)



http://www.espn.com/nba/statistics/rpm/_/page/2/position/5

[BobbieL]

Torn meniscus for Oubre - Chris Haynes reporting

Read on Twitter

At least its not an ACL But this probably pushes him out the rest of the season.

Damn! Just wanted these 27 games post ASB with a somewhat healthy roster - save Frank Kam - to see what they can do

I think this team has grown a lot this year. This is really tough news for KO (and the team).

Team has two roster spots - get the guy from the Mavericks - Australian guy - Broekoopf? something like that

[Walt_Uoob]

How much money will Saric command in the off-season?

I just don't think he will get an offer higher than $7-8 million. I am thinking he would get an offer of about $6.5 from us, unless we see Frank looking to be ready and available and what we draft. If we don't give him an offer, I think he would get some weak offers, for he just hasn't taken the steps to be a starter.

That being said, I would like to retain him, as a backup 4-5.

Unlikely it could work out quite this well, but if I'm understanding the Capulator right, this would be a pretty nice scenario: We have a FA we want to go after this summer, so we renounce the rights to Saric and Baynes, freeing up around $20m of cap space to sign our FA, but then we bring Saric back with the Room Mid-Level Exception ($5.1m next year, can add up to one year at $5.4m, maybe as a player option to sweeten the deal), and then I believe we also retain his bird rights in case we want to bring him back after the end of that contract after we're over the cap. That's probably below his market value though.

[darealjuice]

Boy this season has just been cursed. Our fading playoff hopes are probably pretty much dead unfortunately.

[Revived]

Unreal man, just unreal.

So stupid to not keep Aaron Nelson. It was bad the last few years but never ever close to being this bad in terms of injuries.

[ImNotMcDiSwear]

Unreal man, just unreal.

So stupid to not keep Aaron Nelson. It was bad the last few years but never ever close to being this bad in terms of injuries.

Bledsoe tore his meniscus twice while here. TJ Warren. Brandon Knight. Booker. We suffered a normal amount of injuries under the last few years with Nelson. We had a bunch of vets do very well when Nash was here and we had championship aspirations.

I think this is all just a case of recency bias. Have the Pels not had injuries this season?

[BobbieL]

Boy this season has just been cursed. Our fading playoff hopes are probably pretty much dead unfortunately.

Yes - fading play off hopes

But for me - its more the team not being able to build some cohesiveness with the group. It was a long shot to make the playoffs but having Baynes and Saric back p there was a chance to win some games.

Granted, if one were to look at just W-L record they might see marginal improvement. I have seen a lot more than that. But also see areas of opportunity.

I think a healthier team and Jones making good moves this offseason, the team can make a big leap up the standings. But Jones is really going to need to be smart, patient and exacting in his thought processes for filling out the roster.

[MathiasPW]

Kelly Oubre's On/Off Ratings:

ORTG: +5.0 (112 on/107 off) - 3rd best on the team, after Booker (+13) and Rubio (+5.4)
DRTG: -2.8 (112 on/109 off) - 4th worst on the team, after Booker (-4.8), Saric (-3.1) and Ty Jerome (-3.1). I have a bit of trouble grasping this, I don't see Kelly as a bad defender, even though he gambles a lot.
NET RATING: +2.2 - 5th best on the team, the worst among starters, who all have at least twice his rating differential.

He has always rated slightly negative on defense by many of the advanced metrics, but the RAPTOR rating has him slightly positive. I think he is a pretty good one on one defender and makes some highlight defensive plays (blocks/steals). But it's more team defense, off ball, and awareness when it comes to the biggest issues.



https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-nba-player-ratings/

RPM still has him pretty negative (70th in overall RPM for SFs though obviously that includes some players who didn't play much)



http://www.espn.com/nba/statistics/rpm/_/page/2/position/5

Hadn't heard of RAPTOR yet. Seems interesting, from what they explain of it. Might dig into the detailed manual later on.

[MathiasPW]

Boy this season has just been cursed. Our fading playoff hopes are probably pretty much dead unfortunately.

Yes - fading play off hopes

But for me - its more the team not being able to build some cohesiveness with the group. It was a long shot to make the playoffs but having Baynes and Saric back p there was a chance to win some games.

Granted, if one were to look at just W-L record they might see marginal improvement. I have seen a lot more than that. But also see areas of opportunity.

I think a healthier team and Jones making good moves this offseason, the team can make a big leap up the standings. But Jones is really going to need to be smart, patient and exacting in his thought processes for filling out the roster.

might be hard to do since he burned all our trade-assets last offseason. We have our picks, of course, but that is a dangerous route to go when your team is still not over the hill.

[BobbieL]

Boy this season has just been cursed. Our fading playoff hopes are probably pretty much dead unfortunately.

Yes - fading play off hopes

But for me - its more the team not being able to build some cohesiveness with the group. It was a long shot to make the playoffs but having Baynes and Saric back p there was a chance to win some games.

Granted, if one were to look at just W-L record they might see marginal improvement. I have seen a lot more than that. But also see areas of opportunity.

I think a healthier team and Jones making good moves this offseason, the team can make a big leap up the standings. But Jones is really going to need to be smart, patient and exacting in his thought processes for filling out the roster.

might be hard to do since he burned all our trade-assets last offseason. We have our picks, of course, but that is a dangerous route to go when your team is still not over the hill.

Exactly!. So in free agency - thats what I mean about smart and patient. He can't take all his money and in 30 seconds sign Ariza. Maybe see how the market develops for players.

[sunsbum]

Blessing in disguise. I want 27 games of 30+ from Cam n Mikal. Sucks for Kelly but it ain't the worst thing.

[Revived]

Unreal man, just unreal.

So stupid to not keep Aaron Nelson. It was bad the last few years but never ever close to being this bad in terms of injuries.

Bledsoe tore his meniscus twice while here. TJ Warren. Brandon Knight. Booker. We suffered a normal amount of injuries under the last few years with Nelson. We had a bunch of vets do very well when Nash and a bunch of vets were here and we had championship aspirations.

I think this is all just a case of recency bias. Have the Pels not had injuries this season?

Excluding Zion (who most predictable to be injury prone before Nelson got there), the Pelicans players overall have missed far less games to injuries than the Suns players have.

[GoodBehavior]

Blessing in disguise. I want 27 games of 30+ from Cam n Mikal. Sucks for Kelly but it ain't the worst thing.

It's not really Mikal vs Oubre. It's Saric vs Oubre. Saric will take most of Kelly's minute. I just hope he can at least be productive shooting the ball.

[oddity]

Cam will definitely get more time to shine, though. I hope he starts taking initiative more on offense. Hes been stepping to the plate in terms of knocking down jump shots, but for him to amount to something more he has to expand.

[WeekapaugGroove]

Unreal man, just unreal.

So stupid to not keep Aaron Nelson. It was bad the last few years but never ever close to being this bad in terms of injuries.

Bledsoe tore his meniscus twice while here. TJ Warren. Brandon Knight. Booker. We suffered a normal amount of injuries under the last few years with Nelson. We had a bunch of vets do very well when Nash and a bunch of vets were here and we had championship aspirations.

I think this is all just a case of recency bias. Have the Pels not had injuries this season?

Yeah like I'd mentioned yesterday I'm not sure many of the suns injuries this year are staff related. Nothing you can do about contact injuries (contusions, sprains, broken bones, concussions). A menicius injury is kind of a grey area with this because there are some things around strengthening of the knee that can somewhat reduce risk but it's also a super common basketball injury. As noted bledsoe hurt his twice while here and Nelson was the trainer.

I'm not implying this training staff is good, honestly I have no idea. Just saying it's dangerous to make blanket statements because some of this is outside anyone's control.

I will say booker has been the most healthy he's ever been. I'd also say the training staff did a piss poor job with him last year with his hamstring issues. Him coming back too soon and hurting it again is absolutely a training staff thing.

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[ATTL]

Will miss his scoring and ability to take some pressure off book and ayton.
Need mikal and cam to step up with ayton's improved offensive role.

[Slim Charless]

Blessing in disguise. I want 27 games of 30+ from Cam n Mikal. Sucks for Kelly but it ain't the worst thing.

It's not really Mikal vs Oubre. It's Saric vs Oubre. Saric will take most of Kelly's minute. I just hope he can at least be productive shooting the ball.

It's also an issue with how the off-season plays out. If they were planning on trading KO for a PF (Lauri, Gordon, etc) then this has to hurt his value if he's out for the season. Also, if they wanna extend him then how does this effect how much you give him? I doubt Kelly's agent is gonna let him take any kind of a discount regardless of how his knee plays out. Kelly is really our only piece that we can consider trading and that other teams would value enough to give up something good. This sucks on multiple levels. It is good for Cam because he's about to get a TON more minutes so we'll finally a full picture of what we got with him.

[bwgood77]

Blessing in disguise. I want 27 games of 30+ from Cam n Mikal. Sucks for Kelly but it ain't the worst thing.

It's not really Mikal vs Oubre. It's Saric vs Oubre. Saric will take most of Kelly's minute. I just hope he can at least be productive shooting the ball.

It's also an issue with how the off-season plays out. If they were planning on trading KO for a PF (Lauri, Gordon, etc) then this has to hurt his value if he's out for the season. Also, if they wanna extend him then how does this effect how much you give him? I doubt Kelly's agent is gonna let him take any kind of a discount regardless of how his knee plays out. Kelly is really our only piece that we can consider trading and that other teams would value enough to give up something good. This sucks on multiple levels. It is good for Cam because he's about to get a TON more minutes so we'll finally a full picture of what we got with him.

Yeah, injuries suck for anyone, and even though we had only a very slim chance at the post season, that hurts, but being that he was likely our best trade asset if we wanted to look at potential deals, this is probably a blow to that.