Trades, Transactions and Ideas Thread

Post #101 » by **ThunderBolt** » Tue Feb 25, 2020 5:02 pm

jambalaya wrote:Sounds like Galinari understands the value of Thunder potentially bidding high and / or bidding against no one or almost no one.

Sign n do a Paul George or just a regular sign n trade.

On the bright side, I guess it’s good that Sam isn’t completely averse to keeping shooters.

Post #102 » by **ThunderBolt** » Sun Mar 1, 2020 12:14 pm

I’m going all in on going after Giles this offseason. He’s still 21 and the the kind of reclamation project that makes sense for this team.

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jambalaya · Post #103 » by **jambalaya** » Sun Mar 1, 2020 6:05 pm

It is not final or only word on a young player; but Giles' RPM estimate is 88th of 93 PFs.

I'd consider him. But carefully and fully.

Presti takes / keeps B Clarke and there would be less need for search. Clarke with one of the best RPM estimates for a forward. Bazley, one of the worst so far.

Post #104 » by **ThunderBolt** » Sun Mar 1, 2020 7:06 pm

jambalaya wrote:It is not final or only word on a young player; but Giles' RPM estimate is 88th of 93 PFs.

I'd consider him. But carefully and fully.

Presti takes / keeps B Clarke and there would be less need for search. Clarke with one of the best RPM estimates for a forward. Bazley, one of the worst so far.

I don’t know all that goes on to it but RPM has taken a big hit on it’s image this year with their new formulas. Giles sample size is pretty small too.

Agree on Clarke but no chance Presti keeps a guy as old as Clark. He would rather take a chance on a young player in hopes that they become as good as Clarke and the team gets very little value out of having the player on his rookie contract

jambalaya · Post #105 » by **jambalaya** » Sun Mar 1, 2020 7:29 pm

Griz getting great value out of B Clarke right now.

RPM is perhaps a bit more shaky now. I am using LA-RAPM more often; but it is less known and may have some issues too. Clarke about 270 spots ahead of Bazley there.

Clarke only about 650 days older than SGA.

Bazley is more of a gamble and makes 4-6 years out more important than 2 years from now. It is a choice. The current choice also could have been enhanced by Clarke. If it is not actually important, then things probably should have been done at least somewhat different.

getrichordie · Post #106 » by **getrichordie** » Tue Mar 24, 2020 6:54 am

I wonder what it would take to get Portis here. He has looked solid for the Knicks. He communicates a lot on D, makes hustle plays, and can knock down the corner 3. It also doesn’t hurt that he has playoff experience.

Big issue is he has a club option this summer so I wonder if that gets picked up. Could work in some kind of sign & trade if Knicks and Presti can work out a deal to send Paul there.

Not a sexy pick up, but he’s a solid player who can replace Adams and/or Noel if they choose not to re-sign.

He’s also from Little Rock which isn’t too far away.

getrichordie · Post #107 » by **getrichordie** » Tue Mar 24, 2020 7:06 am

Any merit for swapping Paul for Wall and getting Wagner + Robinson in return?

jambalaya · Post #108 » by **jambalaya** » Tue Mar 24, 2020 4:31 pm

Portis has mildly negative RPM / RAPM estimates. Doesn't get to line and has a fairly weak impact on team offensive rebounding.

If they move Paul to Knicks, he might be part of package. It would be about moving beyond Paul. Portis would likely move on after a year for more money, playing time or being on a good team.

With Wall looking likely to be back in reasonable condition next season, I don't think the Wizards want to or will move him. And not for Paul. Maybe later if Wall flops next season.

Galloisdaman · Post #109 » by **Galloisdaman** » Thu Mar 26, 2020 6:55 pm

The odds of NY taking Pauls contract is about the same as my name being Lebronisdaman tomorrow.
If CP3 wanted that to happen or believed it was true he would not be trolling Dolan with his sneakers.
Frank Isola says things to get reactions. He does not care if they are factual.

getrichordie · Post #110 » by **getrichordie** » Tue Mar 31, 2020 10:57 pm

Assuming we relinquish Gallinari’s cap hold, here are my FA targets for OKC. Not sexy, but I think realistic. Also prepared for if Noel doesn’t re-sign.

Damian Jones
Yuta Watanabe
Enes Kanter
Alex Len
Justin Holiday
Moses Brown
Harry Giles

Kizz Fastfists · Post #111 » by **Kizz Fastfists** » Wed Apr 1, 2020 1:20 am

Thunder off-season will be re-sign Gallinari, re-sign Noel, sign Dort, re-sign Donovan, sign Roberson as a coach and draft a rookie with Denver's pick. Might throw in a vet minimum bum or two to fill out the roster.

jambalaya · Post #112 » by **jambalaya** » Wed Apr 1, 2020 2:16 am

Damian Jones is a weak rebounder. Awful raw plus / minus and on / off. Mildly negative RPM estimate but one of the lowest centers. Great TS% is not enough for me in this case.

Justin Holiday would be alright. Might not repeat career year though. Better than TFerg. Would probably have to guarantee minutes. Not sure how much he gets paid. Pacers probably want to retain but they do have a lot of spots and money tied up in wings.

If Noel leaves, they'll need a backup center but I am more concerned with forwards. Kanter coming back could happen.

getrichordie · Post #113 » by **getrichordie** » Wed Apr 1, 2020 3:34 am

jambalaya wrote:Damian Jones is a weak rebounder. Awful raw plus / minus and on / off. Mildly negative RPM estimate but one of the lowest centers. Great TS% is not enough for me in this case.

Justin Holiday would be alright. Might not repeat career year though. Better than TFerg. Would probably have to guarantee minutes. Not sure how much he gets paid. Pacers probably want to retain but they do have a lot of spots and money tied up in wings.

If Noel leaves, they'll need a backup center but I am more concerned with forwards. Kanter coming back could happen.

Don’t really care what RPM estimate says about Jones. He’s on the Hawks and he’s currently @ 138 ORtg vs 113 DRtg on an 887 minute sample size. 7’4 wingspan... 6’11/245... got good size. He’s been a plus on the court. Eye test says so as well.

What makes you think he is a weak rebounder? His REBs per 100? I hope not. Less rebounds to go around when you are hitting a career average .666 of your shots.

jambalaya · Post #114 » by **jambalaya** » Wed Apr 1, 2020 4:10 am

Jones's defensive rebounding rate is in bottom of range for those 6'9 and above. His estimated defensive rebounding impact as measured by the RAPM factor for that is in bottom 10% of league. Offensive rebounding is ok.

Him on court, Hawks lose by an average 14pts / 100poss. Twice as bad as their norm. Not a good sign. Warriors basically give him away. Not a good sign. Only can get him if the Hawks decline to match. That would also be not a good sign. But backup center, whatever at this point.

getrichordie · Post #115 » by **getrichordie** » Wed Apr 1, 2020 3:44 pm

jambalaya wrote:Jones's defensive rebounding rate is in bottom of range for those 6'9 and above. His estimated defensive rebounding impact as measured by the RAPM factor for that is in bottom 10% of league. Offensive rebounding is ok.

Him on court, Hawks lose by an average 14pts / 100poss. Twice as bad as their norm. Not a good sign. Warriors basically give him away. Not a good sign. Only can get him if the Hawks decline to match. That would also be not a good sign. But backup center, whatever at this point.

How is that possible with his ORtg/DRtg being 138/113?

jambalaya · Post #116 » by **jambalaya** » Wed Apr 1, 2020 4:41 pm

Those offensive and defensive ratings are considered individual ratings (though they use some team data crudely). They have names similar to team offensive & defensive ratings or efficiencies but they are different. They are supposed to be on same scale but that is approximate.

These ratings, along with the context of raw on the court team plus minus, suggest he was a successful player within bad lineups. Finishing shots at rim being his main contribution. RPM / RAPM come out in the middle, giving him more responsibility for being part of those bad lineups including parts not in his shiny boxscore stats like shot defense and the results of offensive plays where he didn't shoot but was still part of what happened. And they consider that the team generally did quite a bit better with subs in his place.

Dean Oliver's offensive and defensive ratings may have been an improvement on PER (though it probably made the opposite mistake of rewarding shot efficiency without enough consideration of "shot creation" responsibility) but BPM and PIPM are better now (at least in terms of explaining team results).

So I am less favorable toward Jones. But if they think they can fix him and get him, he is a candidate. Some upside. If they think he can play PF (hasn't been tried according to surface data), he is better than Bazley, Nader and Hervey.

jambalaya · Post #117 » by **jambalaya** » Thu Apr 2, 2020 6:26 am

If they want to trade Schroder, these might be options:

GSW trade exception for nothing back or a pick / minor player

NYK for Randle

Magic for Aminu and a pick or Gordon and give a pick

Three team deal with Raptors involving Lowry or VanVleet with the Thunder getting stuff from third team and possibly Raptors. Possibly including other Thunder players.

More elaborate and outlandish- Schroder and Adams for Griffin (of expected to be healthy) and Kennard. And seperately, Wood sign and trade for T Ferg, Diallo and Bazley (and more if necessary).

Post #118 » by **retrobro90** » Mon Apr 6, 2020 7:35 pm

Bring me Markannen.

getrichordie · Post #119 » by **getrichordie** » Tue Apr 7, 2020 6:12 pm

jambalaya wrote:If they want to trade Schroder, these might be options:

GSW trade exception for nothing back or a pick / minor player

NYK for Randle

Magic for Aminu and a pick or Gordon and give a pick

Three team deal with Raptors involving Lowry or VanVleet with the Thunder getting stuff from third team and possibly Raptors. Possibly including other Thunder players.

More elaborate and outlandish- Schroder and Adams for Griffin (of expected to be healthy) and Kennard. And seperately, Wood sign and trade for T Ferg, Diallo and Bazley (and more if necessary).

Wait, why are we moving Schroder for a trade exception? Why is OKC wanting to move Schroder? Only reason I can think of is because they want to keep Paul, but that doesn't make much sense.

Schroder for Randle? Gross.

Aminu and a pick? What pick? I might trade #25 this year for their #1 next year...

Who would want a 35 year old Lowry at $30M for one year? And VanVleet is a free agent.

Schroder is overall better than Kennard but if a Griffin for Adams deal is a possibility, I'd be interested to see what Detroit would give up. If they are willing to swap firsts this year, then I'd do that if Hayes or Hampton is on the board.

jambalaya · Post #120 » by **jambalaya** » Tue Apr 7, 2020 8:46 pm

Replies:

I didn't say that these were all great options or should be done. Just that they might be options. Options that could be refined, used or rejected. Got to start the assessment somewhere.

Schroder for GSW trade exception: to save money or apply it to someone considered future core if he isn't. Which he probably isnt considered, right or wrong. I'd rather not trade him but I think they might.

Schroder for Randle? For roster balance, assuming Galinari leaves and they are weak there. Join the Kentucky guys. That seems like an intentional for the long-term emphasis to help get / retain guys. Younger. Might flip in another trade.

Aminu and a pick: from them.

Who would want a 35 year old Lowry at $30M for one year? Philly, perhaps Magic. Maybe Heat. Someone with an injury.

VanVleet is a free agent... and could be signed & traded.