Official Trade Thread -- Part XXXVIII

[DCZards]

Here are my four concerns/problems with trading Beal for Simmons…at least before the 2021- 22. I know there are arguments regarding contract and age that favor Simmons, but they don’t trump these oncourt issues, imo.

1. Offensively, Ben and Wall are redundant and incompatible. Both are great initiators and lousy shooters.

2. Beal has become an elite NBA player. He’s as good or better than Simmons in some respects.

3. You have to build a team around Simmons that suits his skillset, mostly because of Ben’s bad shooting. This is the problem that Philly is currently facing. Beal, on the other hand, is a plug and play in pretty much any offensive scheme.

4. Wall, Beal and Bertans have the potential to be a lethal offensive threesome. That needs to be given a chance to happen. (Hopefully, we can resign Bertans.)

Simmons is a great defensive player. But the Zards could possibly sign (via free agency) or draft an above-average defender. You can do that without sacrificing one of the best SGs in the NBA.

[pcbothwel]

Nate... Id like to get your opinion after the playoffs. I think Simmons will fill up the stat box, but will mostly be shutdown and will be even hard to watch... so we'll see

How can someone "fill up the stat box" but "mostly be shut down?"

There is also no such thing as "fill up the stat box" but not contribute to winning. Doesn't exist. Here's why. At the end of a game, the team with fewer points loses, the team with more points wins.

There are only 2 ways to be "the team with more points," two & no other. Either you score the ball at a higher TS%, or you get more opportunities to score than your opponent (more shots/FTs). That's it.

In fact, if you do both those things you cannot lose. It's mathematically impossible. & if you do neither of those things, you cannot win. Again, it's mathematically impossible.

The way you do the first thing is you "fill up the stat sheet." The way you do the second is you "fill up the stat sheet." If you shoot a higher TS%, that helps your team's TS%. If you are outstanding at the composite of rebounds/blocks/steals/turnovers/fouls, you give your team more opportunities to score. If you do both, so much the better.

(Yes, there is also a marginal effect of spacing -- be in touch as soon as you can quantify it in some way.)

If you are also a good defender, then that should show in your opponent's TS% being held down.

Ben does all those things. That's why he's a great player; it's also why his team wins lots of games. But, he doesn't run the FO, & that's why Philly isn't as good this year. Their GM was a very good basketball player; he's not good at his current job.

He will fill up the stat sheet with rebounds, assist, and a couple steals while putting up about 15 points on decent efficiency.
But he will be Shut down offensively all things considered.

You dont need to play the value of possessions game with me. What Im saying is clear... I DONT TRUST BEN SIMMONS.
The league will probably figure him out quicker than he improves.
Draymond Green has put up a couple years that show him to be a much better player than Beal is... but its fools gold. He has significant flaws that become even more apparent in recent years.

Now you can certianly argue that he is far more talented than Draymond, but he doesnt have near the motor.
To me, I dont see generational talent... I see a guy who probably peaks early and we look back in 10 years trying to figure it out.
He's Lamar Odom/Batum/Blake Griffin... Not Giannis / Lebron. Ben Simmons has been able to hide behind youth, injuries, Jimmy Butler, and Embiid along with a cast of other really good players. Look at all the other primary ball handlers in the league... they all have a usage in the 30s while Simmons is more like Rudy Gobert and Brandon Clarke.

And Im not overrating Beal, but I think we could get a better package FOR THIS TEAM than Ben Simmons straight up given the talent in the 21/22 drafts.
He is putting up 30/6/4 with a TS of 58% and usage of 34%!!! Lets see the lock down defense from Simmons when his usage is that high and he is counted on to actually do something.
But sure... lets value Otto Porter over Brad Beal

[deneem4]

I wouldn’t trade Beal for Simmons...
You don’t trade 30ppg scorers...
Yes Simmons bring great defense and passing, but some one has to put the ball in the hoop, and that’s the problem the sixers are having now

[prime1time]

Trading Beal for Simmons would be a disaster. Simmons is the same exact player he's been since .he came into his league. If you want Simmons that badly, wait for his value to fall and then pair him with Beal. Beal is just getting started. Coming off arguably the best month of his career. I can't think of one player that has gotten to where Brad is and stops improving. Each night he goes out and carries the offense. And pretty soon he'll have seen all the ways defenses can try to stop him. He is now 13th in the league in PER. And I expect that he will continue to climb. This season has been an adjustment for him due to the new role he's been asked to carry so it should come as no surprise that he's gotten better over time.

Personally I'm not a fan of Simmons. His lack of shooting is disastrous and he's soft. But Simmons' and Beal could potentially work. All in all, nothing has changed in my approach. We build around Beal. Talk of trading him now is even more silly than before. But if we are to trade him, I'd expect an Anthony Davis/Paul George esque return.

In addition, the Simmons Giannis comparisons are bizarre to me. Look at how much Giannis has improved each year. Then look at Simmons.

I mean... even this season with Beal scoring over 30 a game and Simmons starting out the season poorly and not being a great fit for Philly, Simmons has a 7.1 win share for the season, while Beal has a 4.8. And Simmons is about 3 years younger? Maybe there's a chance Simmons is a little better basketball player going forward?

I don't understand how win shares is calculated so it doesn't hold that much water for me. What I do know is that Simmons hasn't improved since he came into the league. And if he has improved it's been marginal. His game is bottlenecked by his terrible shooting. Does he do other things well? Yes. But if he can't shoot, he will not be better than Beal. Beal is still getting better. Beal's February was the best month of his career. So no, I don't take it for granted that Simmons' will be better.

Simmons supposedly worked on his shooting during his 1st year in the league that he missed due to injury. He supposedly worked on it each offseason. Yet here we are. He is still the worst shooting ball-dominant player in the league. To be honest, I wouldn't even want him with Beal. He's soft and refuses to guard big men. And he also can't shoot. If he's willing to do one of those things, then I'll argue that we should pair him with Beal. But as long as he's willing to do neither, it's a silly conversation.

Perhaps where we differ is that when I project Simmons' into the future, say 3 or 4 years from now I see a player who has the same major flaws, and only make minor improvements. Simmons reminds me of Wall in that sense. But like I said in my previous post. Eventually, Philly is going to move Simmons because he and Embiid are incompatible. So if you really want him at least by low. Acquiring Simmons with the hope of him being a foundational piece is simply inconceivable to me. If Simmons' was the kind of player you build a team around, he wouldn't be traded in the first place. That move is a fast track to 5 years of guaranteed mediocrity.

[prime1time]

This talk of building a team around Simmons needs to be grounded in reality. Along with the talk that he's a first-team all-defensive player. Simmons doesn't guard big men. I've seen Giannis eat him alive because he avoids the physicality. So what you are really talking about is a Robert Covington esque defender. Good, but not someone who's going to anchor a defense.

So here's a question, let's say we acquire Simmons for Beal, then what?

[prime1time]

I mean... even this season with Beal scoring over 30 a game and Simmons starting out the season poorly and not being a great fit for Philly, Simmons has a 7.1 win share for the season, while Beal has a 4.8. And Simmons is about 3 years younger? Maybe there's a chance Simmons is a little better basketball player going forward?

Ruz... prime is making a very serious point when it comes to Simmons. For a guy to be the same player at 23 as he was at 19 is greatly concerning. He has gotten worse across the board. Rebounding, Usage, AST% to TOV%, BPPM, On/Off, etc.

Sure, his TS is a little higher, but thats because he is simply shooting 60% of his FGA come within 3 feet of the basket.
The problem is people always look at Ben Simmons with a glass half full mindset...which is,
"look how good he his and he cant even shoot..."
The counter would be, he is so terrible as a shooter and limited offensively, that any decline either as a playmaker or defensively tanks his value as he cant shoot.
I HATE the comp to Giannis. Giannis has a usage above 30% each of the last 3 years and hasnt been below 20% since he was 20. His FT shooting hasnt been below 70% since he was a rookie and Simmons just crossed 60% this year at a meager 62%.

Simmons is more Kirilenko/Draymond than he is anywhere near Giannis.
His limitations, lack of improvement, and general apathy about being great are HUGE red flags

No, this is third season in the NBA - his first was ridiculously good - Giannis wasn't as good as Ben's rookie year until his 4th season. Beal wasn't even in the vicinity until his 5th season. It's like saying - What happened to Dan Marino - after he nearly won a Super Bowl as a rookie and never improved on that? Forget the Giannis comp - you don't have to look at it to understand how good Simmons is. How many people in NBA history had better rookie years than Simmons? And you're basically using that against him... see how I think that's kind of odd?

The question is not how good Simmons' rookie year is. It's why hasn't he improved? That is a legitimate question to be asked when people argue that he should be the player that our Franchise builds around. How many players have had a rookie year as good Simmons'? I don't know. But how many #1 options have had such minimal improvement in their first 3 years?

[deneem4]

This talk of building a team around Simmons needs to be grounded in reality. Along with the talk that he's a first-team all-defensive player. Simmons doesn't guard big men. I've seen Giannis eat him alive because he avoids the physicality. So what you are really talking about is a Robert Covington esque defender. Good, but not someone who's going to anchor a defense.

So here's a question, let's say we acquire Simmons for Beal, then what?

Sato and Otto get more shots?.....

[nate33]

How many players have had a rookie year as good Simmons'? I don't know. But how many #1 options have had such minimal improvement in their first 3 years?

Bradley Beal comes to mind...

[DCZards]

[list=][/list]

How many players have had a rookie year as good Simmons'? I don't know. But how many #1 options have had such minimal improvement in their first 3 years?

Bradley Beal comes to mind...

Beal’s development as a player was hindered by injuries his first 4 seasons. He played just 56 games his rookie season and averaged around 65 games the next 3 seasons.

[prime1time]

How many players have had a rookie year as good Simmons'? I don't know. But how many #1 options have had such minimal improvement in their first 3 years?

Bradley Beal comes to mind...

I wouldn't call Beal a real #1 option. Beal is good but he's not Kobe, Magic, Shaq, Kareem etc.

[Ruzious]

Ruz... prime is making a very serious point when it comes to Simmons. For a guy to be the same player at 23 as he was at 19 is greatly concerning. He has gotten worse across the board. Rebounding, Usage, AST% to TOV%, BPPM, On/Off, etc.

Sure, his TS is a little higher, but thats because he is simply shooting 60% of his FGA come within 3 feet of the basket.
The problem is people always look at Ben Simmons with a glass half full mindset...which is,
"look how good he his and he cant even shoot..."
The counter would be, he is so terrible as a shooter and limited offensively, that any decline either as a playmaker or defensively tanks his value as he cant shoot.
I HATE the comp to Giannis. Giannis has a usage above 30% each of the last 3 years and hasnt been below 20% since he was 20. His FT shooting hasnt been below 70% since he was a rookie and Simmons just crossed 60% this year at a meager 62%.

Simmons is more Kirilenko/Draymond than he is anywhere near Giannis.
His limitations, lack of improvement, and general apathy about being great are HUGE red flags

No, this is third season in the NBA - his first was ridiculously good - Giannis wasn't as good as Ben's rookie year until his 4th season. Beal wasn't even in the vicinity until his 5th season. It's like saying - What happened to Dan Marino - after he nearly won a Super Bowl as a rookie and never improved on that? Forget the Giannis comp - you don't have to look at it to understand how good Simmons is. How many people in NBA history had better rookie years than Simmons? And you're basically using that against him... see how I think that's kind of odd?

The question is not how good Simmons' rookie year is. It's why hasn't he improved? That is a legitimate question to be asked when people argue that he should be the player that our Franchise builds around. How many players have had a rookie year as good Simmons'? I don't know. But how many #1 options have had such minimal improvement in their first 3 years?

You're making my head hurt. These are false arguments. First of all, Embiid's always been the first option for Philly. Second of all, what difference does that make anyway??? Third, Simmons has improved. He's a far better defender now than he was as a rookie. His shooting percentages and scoring efficiency numbers are way up from his rookie year. Even his PER is up from 20 to 20.8. And look how this season's gone for him. He started off poorly for him for the first month and a half or so. Since then, there's been a big upward trend this season. And even with the incompatabilities on Philly, Philly's won a ton more games than Washington. Last playoffs they came within a hair of beating the soon to be World Champion Raptors. He hasn't even played 3 seasons! If you want an example of a great PG who showed no improvement in his first 3 seasons, look at Steve Nash. Look at Chauncey Billups. They not only regressed; they looked like flops.

[nate33]

How many players have had a rookie year as good Simmons'? I don't know. But how many #1 options have had such minimal improvement in their first 3 years?

Bradley Beal comes to mind...

I wouldn't call Beal a real #1 option. Beal is good but he's not Kobe, Magic, Shaq, Kareem etc.

So Simmons has to be a top 10 All-Time caliber player for it to be worth trading Beal for him?

Beal is clearly a #1 option. He's the second leading scorer in the NBA for cryin' out loud.

[pcbothwel]

No, this is third season in the NBA - his first was ridiculously good - Giannis wasn't as good as Ben's rookie year until his 4th season. Beal wasn't even in the vicinity until his 5th season. It's like saying - What happened to Dan Marino - after he nearly won a Super Bowl as a rookie and never improved on that? Forget the Giannis comp - you don't have to look at it to understand how good Simmons is. How many people in NBA history had better rookie years than Simmons? And you're basically using that against him... see how I think that's kind of odd?

The question is not how good Simmons' rookie year is. It's why hasn't he improved? That is a legitimate question to be asked when people argue that he should be the player that our Franchise builds around. How many players have had a rookie year as good Simmons'? I don't know. But how many #1 options have had such minimal improvement in their first 3 years?

You're making my head hurt. These are false arguments. First of all, Embiid's always been the first option for Philly. Second of all, what difference does that make anyway??? Third, Simmons has improved. He's a far better defender now than he was as a rookie. His shooting percentages and scoring efficiency numbers are way up from his rookie year. Even his PER is up from 20 to 20.8. And look how this season's gone for him. He started off poorly for him for the first month and a half or so. Since then, there's been a big upward trend this season. And even with the incompatabilities on Philly, Philly's won a ton more games than Washington. Last playoffs they came within a hair of beating the soon to be World Champion Raptors. He hasn't even played 3 seasons! If you want an example of a great PG who showed no improvement in his first 3 seasons, look at Steve Nash. Look at Chauncey Billups. They not only regressed; they looked like flops.

Ruz... His FT shooting has gone up from 56% to 62%... Wow, such improvement. Where as his shooting from EVERYWHERE on the flooor has gone down
17/19:
0-3: 74% 3-10: 41% 10-16: 31% 16-24: 39%

19/20:
0-3: 71% 3-10: 37% 10-16: 16% 16-24: 33%

His 3pt% went up, but thats on a whopping sample size of 6 3PA... FOR THE ENTIRE YEAR.

You are referring to his TS% going up, and as I said, that is only the case because he is now taking 72% of his shots from within 3 feet of the basket... Just for Context, Giannis has NEVER shot more than 50% of his FGA from within 3 feet and his career LOW FT% is Simmons career high.

BTW... yes its his 3rd year (Injured rookie year), but he turns 24 in a couple months. He is essentially on the same timeline as Rui, who played 3 years at Gonzaga.
When Beal was EXACTLY Simmons age, he was in his 5th year and putting up 23/3/3 on a TS of 60% and BPM of 3.3 (OBPM of 4.2).

Again, lets revisit this discussion after the playoffs. I think you see an extremely underwhelming & frustrated Simmons offensively.

[Ruzious]

The question is not how good Simmons' rookie year is. It's why hasn't he improved? That is a legitimate question to be asked when people argue that he should be the player that our Franchise builds around. How many players have had a rookie year as good Simmons'? I don't know. But how many #1 options have had such minimal improvement in their first 3 years?

You're making my head hurt. These are false arguments. First of all, Embiid's always been the first option for Philly. Second of all, what difference does that make anyway??? Third, Simmons has improved. He's a far better defender now than he was as a rookie. His shooting percentages and scoring efficiency numbers are way up from his rookie year. Even his PER is up from 20 to 20.8. And look how this season's gone for him. He started off poorly for him for the first month and a half or so. Since then, there's been a big upward trend this season. And even with the incompatabilities on Philly, Philly's won a ton more games than Washington. Last playoffs they came within a hair of beating the soon to be World Champion Raptors. He hasn't even played 3 seasons! If you want an example of a great PG who showed no improvement in his first 3 seasons, look at Steve Nash. Look at Chauncey Billups. They not only regressed; they looked like flops.

Ruz... His FT shooting has gone up from 56% to 62%... Wow, such improvement. Where as his shooting from EVERYWHERE on the flooor has gone down
17/19:
0-3: 74% 3-10: 41% 10-16: 31% 16-24: 39%

19/20:
0-3: 71% 3-10: 37% 10-16: 16% 16-24: 33%

His 3pt% went up, but thats on a whopping sample size of 6 3PA... FOR THE ENTIRE YEAR.

You are referring to his TS% going up, and as I said, that is only the case because he is now taking 72% of his shots from within 3 feet of the basket... Just for Context, Giannis has NEVER shot more than 50% of his FGA from within 3 feet and his career LOW FT% is Simmons career high.

BTW... yes its his 3rd year (Injured rookie year), but he turns 24 in a couple months. He is essentially on the same timeline as Rui, who played 3 years at Gonzaga.
When Beal was EXACTLY Simmons age, he was in his 5th year and putting up 23/3/3 on a TS of 60% and BPM of 3.3 (OBPM of 4.2).

Again, lets revisit this discussion after the playoffs. I think you see an extremely underwhelming & frustrated Simmons offensively.

You're making this much harder than it is in order to make a case that just isn't there. All of his scoring percentages are up. His FG% is up from 54.5 to 58.5, FT's are up from 56.0 to 62.7, his TS% has gone from 55.7 to 60.8, his eFG has gone from 54.5 to 58.7. Those are all improvements whether you like it or not. Discussions over for me.

[payitforward]

Per what you wrote yesterday, Ruz, these are now just fixed positions on all sides. As you all know, I really hate to argue, so maybe it would be a good idea to let it go for a while (even tho you fools against the trade are so so wrong!...).

What do you think? Am I right? NO, I mean... do you agree about this idea?

[DCZards]

You're right, pif. Let's let it go. The Zards aren't trading Beal for a perimeter player who can't make a 15 foot jumper.

[pcbothwel]

You're making my head hurt. These are false arguments. First of all, Embiid's always been the first option for Philly. Second of all, what difference does that make anyway??? Third, Simmons has improved. He's a far better defender now than he was as a rookie. His shooting percentages and scoring efficiency numbers are way up from his rookie year. Even his PER is up from 20 to 20.8. And look how this season's gone for him. He started off poorly for him for the first month and a half or so. Since then, there's been a big upward trend this season. And even with the incompatabilities on Philly, Philly's won a ton more games than Washington. Last playoffs they came within a hair of beating the soon to be World Champion Raptors. He hasn't even played 3 seasons! If you want an example of a great PG who showed no improvement in his first 3 seasons, look at Steve Nash. Look at Chauncey Billups. They not only regressed; they looked like flops.

Ruz... His FT shooting has gone up from 56% to 62%... Wow, such improvement. Where as his shooting from EVERYWHERE on the flooor has gone down
17/19:
0-3: 74% 3-10: 41% 10-16: 31% 16-24: 39%

19/20:
0-3: 71% 3-10: 37% 10-16: 16% 16-24: 33%

His 3pt% went up, but thats on a whopping sample size of 6 3PA... FOR THE ENTIRE YEAR.

You are referring to his TS% going up, and as I said, that is only the case because he is now taking 72% of his shots from within 3 feet of the basket... Just for Context, Giannis has NEVER shot more than 50% of his FGA from within 3 feet and his career LOW FT% is Simmons career high.

BTW... yes its his 3rd year (Injured rookie year), but he turns 24 in a couple months. He is essentially on the same timeline as Rui, who played 3 years at Gonzaga.
When Beal was EXACTLY Simmons age, he was in his 5th year and putting up 23/3/3 on a TS of 60% and BPM of 3.3 (OBPM of 4.2).

Again, lets revisit this discussion after the playoffs. I think you see an extremely underwhelming & frustrated Simmons offensively.

You're making this much harder than it is in order to make a case that just isn't there. All of his scoring percentages are up. His FG% is up from 54.5 to 58.5, FT's are up from 56.0 to 62.7, his TS% has gone from 55.7 to 60.8, his eFG has gone from 54.5 to 58.7. Those are all improvements whether you like it or not. Discussions over for me.

No worries Ruz...this is not that combative for me. Simmons is a tantalizing talent, and I wouldn't throw a fit if a straight up deal was made.
And to clarify, I wasn't saying Ben Simmons is less efficient than before. But we are trying to project what Simmons COULD be with a new team/experience. My point was, he has not made ANY improvement as a shooter and has in fact regressed. His efficiency is better simply due to the TYPE of shots he takes.

Look at Dwight Howard. He is more efficient now than at any point in his career (70% TS)... but his shooting from basically everywhere other than within 3 feet of the basket is at /near career lows(Including FT%). Does that make him a more efficient scorer? Yes... But does it show an improvement in shooting? No... This doesnt matter for a role player making the Vet Min in his mid 30's, but it does matter when making a player the cornerstone of your franchise and putting him in a new system...

Anyway... we can move on

[Ruzious]

Per what you wrote yesterday, Ruz, these are now just fixed positions on all sides. As you all know, I really hate to argue, so maybe it would be a good idea to let it go for a while (even tho you fools against the trade are so so wrong!...).

What do you think? Am I right? NO, I mean... do you agree about this idea?

As I said, discussion's over for me.

[Dark Faze]

Ben isn't as good as Brad on offense. But we're discounting his positive value on defense and we're certainly discounting--by comparison--Brad's negative value on defense.

The Wizards need to find a solution in regards to defense. Getting a defensive minded coach would probably be step 1. There are bad defensive rosters that are doing much better than us on defense.

[payitforward]

Here's a question:

Suppose we had the #1 pick in the draft -- would you trade it for Joel Embiid? Or would you hold on to it, & draft James Wiseman?

(I know that wouldn't be legal as a straight-up trade, but forget that for a moment)