Rui Hachimura

[DCZards]

Dang it, dude! Am I comparing you to FoxNews guys!! Cut it out!

You know what really gets me right now... the fact that I just realized today that the Warriors are going to wind up getting James Wiseman, the kid'll turn out to be a superstar, Steph will be back & so will whatsisname, & they'll win another title!!

Kinda like when the Spurs had that one down season and ended up being in a position to draft Duncan.

[payitforward]

Exactly!

I suppose I'd rather it be the Warriors (I lived 20 years in SF & went to a zillion games) than for, say, Atlanta or the Knicks to leapfrog them & wind up with this kid.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Good.

Good too for being the only one who predicted accurately that we'd pick Rui. But... of course that's not what I meant by "right." Still... we should leave that subject, as it was part of what I was apologizing for!!

Hey, I'll be delighted if Rui turns out to be better than Brandon Clarke. For one thing, I'm a Wizards fan! For another, Clarke is really kind of incredibly good, so if Rui reaches his level he will be too!

I'm not disappointed in Rui -- which is why I got ticked at being told I was "poo pooing" him. Rui has done the single most important thing a rookie can do: he's shown that he can play in the league. He's a 21 year old with less basketball experience than most of his peers at his age. So, what he's done is good. It counts.

Is he going to be a good player? I don't know that, & neither do you! But we both hope so. This off season will be really big for Rui.

Was picking Rui Hachimura the best thing to do with the #9 pick last year. No, not by a long shot. But... by now that's a long time ago! Not worth dredging up.

Peace!

Whether it was the right choice or not remains to be seen. You have an acute obsession with being "right" for some reason. And it drives your meticulous and somewhat irrelevant stat grinding. It reminds me of those FoxNews talking heads that chant "Ratings!!" at the slightest criticism. It's short sighted in my opinion.

I'm loving the back-and-forth JWiz, and pif.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Dang it, dude! Am I comparing you to FoxNews guys!! Cut it out!

You know what really gets me right now... the fact that I just realized today that the Warriors are going to wind up getting James Wiseman, the kid'll turn out to be a superstar, Steph will be back & so will whatsisname, & they'll win another title!!

Kinda like when the Spurs had that one down season and ended up being in a position to draft Duncan.

Right.

Don't underestimate the hometown tank. John Wall IMO has been ready to go for about a month IMHO. We are tanking STRONG.

I'm confident whenever the Wizards pick they WILL have the opportunity at a talented player.

I trust pif on Wiseman, but IMO he's only certainly going to be really good. BUT HOW MUCH BETTER IN 3 YEARS THAN Ayton or Karl-Anthony Towns? Not that much would be my GUESS.

Okongwu might be a HOF talent. Paul Reed WILL CERTAINLY be decent. OBI TOPPIN would be a really good pick.

Rui's balling...

I'm optimistic, regardless.

[nate33]

It's small sample size theater, but in his 2 games since coming back from injury, Rui has averaged 18.6 points and 9.3 boards per 36 minutes on a TS% of .643

Hachimura really looks like a different player ever since coming back from the injury. He is extremely consistent, giving us almost exactly 15 and 7 every night while shooting 52% from the floor, 48% from 3-point range (on limited attempts) and 80% from the line. His defense is much improved and he's now getting to the line 4.6 times per 36. (Before the injury, he attempted a paltry 2.7 FT's per 36.)

In 12 games since returning from injury, here are his per 36 numbers:

PTS: 17.5
REB: 7.8
AST: 1.9
STL: 1.3
BLK: 0.2
TO: 1.8
TS%: .614
3P%: .478
+/-: +2.3

That's a really good player!

It really looks like the game is slowing down for him. He is making good decisions on and off the ball. He is figuring out how to get open. He is shooting the 3 with confidence. His steals are up to 1.3 per 36 from 0.8 pre-injury. And his on/off differentials have been consistently positive lately when they were dramatically negative pre-injury.

He still needs to get better at rebounding - particularly if Brooks is going to play him at small ball center for spurts. But overall, he is looking like one of the best rookies in this draft.

[I_Like_Dirt]

He still needs to get better at rebounding - particularly if Brooks is going to play him at small ball center for spurts. But overall, he is looking like one of the best rookies in this draft.

Rebounding is more a function of where a player is on the floor and their responsibilities when they manage it. It's not particularly common for players to be able to guard inside and out while switching a lot and still grab rebounds because they're not playing to be where the ball goes but instead playing to be where the defense requires them to be. Giannis is an exception but there seems to be a pretty clear delineation between players who struggle with defensive mobility but happen to be big so get parked around the baskets and still get old-school rebounding numbers and more mobile defenders who don't get as many rebounds as you'd think but weirdly don't actually hurt the team's rebounding totals (and often help them) despite what people might expect because they do what needs doing and trust their teammates to get the boards they don't. Rui's rebounding isn't totally out of line with the likes of Pascal Siakam or PJ Tucker, for example. His defense isn't on the same level just yet but it's also not that bad and he could be very good depending on how he develops.

[nate33]

He still needs to get better at rebounding - particularly if Brooks is going to play him at small ball center for spurts. But overall, he is looking like one of the best rookies in this draft.

Rebounding is more a function of where a player is on the floor and their responsibilities when they manage it. It's not particularly common for players to be able to guard inside and out while switching a lot and still grab rebounds because they're not playing to be where the ball goes but instead playing to be where the defense requires them to be. Giannis is an exception but there seems to be a pretty clear delineation between players who struggle with defensive mobility but happen to be big so get parked around the baskets and still get old-school rebounding numbers and more mobile defenders who don't get as many rebounds as you'd think but weirdly don't actually hurt the team's rebounding totals (and often help them) despite what people might expect because they do what needs doing and trust their teammates to get the boards they don't. Rui's rebounding isn't totally out of line with the likes of Pascal Siakam or PJ Tucker, for example. His defense isn't on the same level just yet but it's also not that bad and he could be very good depending on how he develops.

This is true. I don't think it's reasonable to expect Hachimura to average double digit rebounding or anything.

Here are some comps for Rui in body type and role, and their per 36 rebounding numbers:

Aaron Gordon 8.3
Kawhi Leonard 8.4
Rudy Gay 9.0
Brandon Clarke 9.7
JayMichael Green 10.7
Christian Wood 10.7
Bam Adebayo 11.0

Rui is averaging 7.4 per 36 on the season and 7.8 post-injury. I'd like to see that number up around 8.5-9.0 - particularly given the amount of time he plays small ball center.

But I'm not hating. The guy is a rookie. He'll get better.

[I_Like_Dirt]

Here are some comps for Rui in body type and role, and their per 36 rebounding numbers:

Aaron Gordon 8.3
Kawhi Leonard 8.4
Rudy Gay 9.0
Brandon Clarke 9.7
JayMichael Green 10.7
Christian Wood 10.7
Bam Adebayo 11.0

Rui is averaging 7.4 per 36 on the season and 7.8 post-injury. I'd like to see that number up around 8.5-9.0 - particularly given the amount of time he plays small ball center.

I'd even break that down to a simple TRB% (using career numbers):

Rui - 11.2
Gordon - 12.2
Isaac - 11.3
Kawhi - 11.6
Rudy - 10.2
Paul George - 10.5
Tatum - 10.1
Siakam - 11.7
Tucker - 10.9

You have a few guys like Draymond who are exceptionally on the high end at 13.3 and some outliers on the low end like Gallinari at 8.8 but for the most part Rui fits right in with that group.

Some of those guys you listed have more issues with their ability to play on the perimeter defensively and are more firmly entrenched as PF/Cs as a result. I'd suggest that Wood, Green and Clarke (yes, Clarke, too) all fall into that category. Adebayo, too, as a PF/C, though he's a bit more freakish in that he is way more defensively mobile and generally disruptive everywhere which is why he gets parked in the middle so often.

[payitforward]

It's small sample size theater, but in his 2 games since coming back from injury, Rui has averaged 18.6 points and 9.3 boards per 36 minutes on a TS% of .643

Hachimura really looks like a different player ever since coming back from the injury. He is extremely consistent, giving us almost exactly 15 and 7 every night while shooting 52% from the floor, 48% from 3-point range (on limited attempts) and 80% from the line. His defense is much improved and he's now getting to the line 4.6 times per 36. (Before the injury, he attempted a paltry 2.7 FT's per 36.)

In 12 games since returning from injury, here are his per 36 numbers:

PTS: 17.5
REB: 7.8
AST: 1.9
STL: 1.3
BLK: 0.2
TO: 1.8
TS%: .614
3P%: .478
+/-: +2.3

That's a really good player! ...

Good stuff, for sure. His overall numbers are getting better week by week.

22 rookies have played 900 or more minutes. Rui's overall numbers put him 7th best among them.

If we just look at rookie 4s & 5s who've played that many minutes, there are 8 of them (Clarke, Hayes, Rui, Cam Johnson, P.J. Washington, Paschall, Bazley & Hunter). Only Clarke & Hayes have been better than Rui.

It's worth noting that Johnson, Washington, & Paschall all started much stronger than Rui. His numbers have gone up -- & all those guy' numbers have gone down as well.

[payitforward]

He still needs to get better at rebounding....

Rebounding is more a function of where a player is on the floor and their responsibilities when they manage it. It's not particularly common for players to be able to guard inside and out while switching a lot and still grab rebounds because they're not playing to be where the ball goes but instead playing to be where the defense requires them to be. Giannis is an exception but there seems to be a pretty clear delineation between players who struggle with defensive mobility but happen to be big so get parked around the baskets and still get old-school rebounding numbers and more mobile defenders who don't get as many rebounds as you'd think but weirdly don't actually hurt the team's rebounding totals (and often help them) despite what people might expect because they do what needs doing and trust their teammates to get the boards they don't....

Well... no.

This is a textbook example of a common practice -- telling a likely-sounding story that makes a straightforward problem appear not to be one. The easiest way to make this clear is via reductio ad absurdem: tell me, if all 5 of your guys are "mobile defenders who don't get... many rebounds," does that "often help" the team's rebounding totals?

Far better just to say that Rui is getting better at a bunch of stuff but "still needs to get better at rebounding." Because... he does.

& as to...

...Rui's rebounding isn't totally out of line with the likes of Pascal Siakam....

Oh, come on! Doesn't it go w/o saying that I would be able to respond w/ a similar "likely-sounding story" to make it seem ok in his case but not in Rui's? Hmmm, let me see...

Rebounding is a function of opportunity & equally of need. Because Toronto is a really strong rebounding team -- especially the 6 other guys who play big minutes, who are all way above average in rebounding -- Siakam doesn't get the opportunity to pull in a lot of boards: his teammates have already grabbed them. Plus, since they've already grabbed them, he really doesn't have to do it anyway.

Except, of course, that a few years ago they were a below-average rebounding team, & Siakam was still a poor rebounder! Not to mention that Rui isn't even as good a rebounder as Siakam!

[I_Like_Dirt]

Well... no.

This is a textbook example of a common practice -- telling a likely-sounding story that makes a straightforward problem appear not to be one. The easiest way to make this clear is via reductio ad absurdem: tell me, if all 5 of your guys are "mobile defenders who don't get... many rebounds," does that "often help" the team's rebounding totals?

Far better just to say that Rui is getting better at a bunch of stuff but "still needs to get better at rebounding." Because... he does.

I mean, I'd be perfectly happy about Rui becoming a better rebounder but I think you're doing precisely what you're accusing me of: telling a likely sounding story, changing some of the facts (dropping 9 guys down to 5, for example), and then trying to turn it around. There are way more examples I didn't use. I just tossed out a few. Marcus Morris, Markieff Morris, Isaac Bonga, OG Anunoby, Tobias Harris, James Johnson, Gordon Hayward, Jaylen Brown, etc. And you even have some of the better Cs at positioning and rotating in on the action like Horford and Gasol. Even Lebron only has a career TRB% of 12.7.

Your definition of poor rebounder seems to involve labelling most of the league as poor rebounders. Rebounding in the modern NBA actually involves more than getting individual rebounds and is more about getting rebounds as a team, making more high point shots, etc. That doesn't mean that players wouldn't be better by improving their rebounding. They'd be better if they improved basically anything and these things are all interconnected.

These things aren't necessarily as easily broken apart as you're suggesting. Look at Detroit, for example. They had Drummond until just recently and were still being outrebounded and it wasn't actually because the rest of their team was poor rebounders but because their team couldn't play functional team defense and were a horrible defensive team because of it. The result was that other teams wound up toying with their defense and getting inside for easier shots and not leaving many rebounding opportunities while the Pistons offense was only pedestrian and had to force more 3s (smart play on their part) which resulted in more rebounding opportunities for the opponent even though hit their 3s at an above average rate.

Base rebounds are such a misleading stat in the current NBA it's ridiculous. Several years ago the Raptors were tracking ghost players to track if players were where they needed to be on the floor. It turns out at the time, Lebron and Wade graded out as the best defenders in the league because they were always where they were supposed to be on the floor. This was almost ten years ago now. NBA teams have moved beyond this already, too. Rebounds on their own have value but you go way overboard with it. A lot of the stats based on traditional box scores go overboard with it.

[wall_glizzy]

He still needs to get better at rebounding....

Rebounding is more a function of where a player is on the floor and their responsibilities when they manage it. It's not particularly common for players to be able to guard inside and out while switching a lot and still grab rebounds because they're not playing to be where the ball goes but instead playing to be where the defense requires them to be. Giannis is an exception but there seems to be a pretty clear delineation between players who struggle with defensive mobility but happen to be big so get parked around the baskets and still get old-school rebounding numbers and more mobile defenders who don't get as many rebounds as you'd think but weirdly don't actually hurt the team's rebounding totals (and often help them) despite what people might expect because they do what needs doing and trust their teammates to get the boards they don't....

Well... no.

This is a textbook example of a common practice -- telling a likely-sounding story that makes a straightforward problem appear not to be one. The easiest way to make this clear is via reductio ad absurdem: tell me, if all 5 of your guys are "mobile defenders who don't get... many rebounds," does that "often help" the team's rebounding totals?

As I've mentioned before, we've got the data to evaluate this. In the last two months (~385 minutes with Rui on since January 5th, ~870 minutes with him off), the team rebounding rates are as follows:

Rui on: 21.8 ORB%, 75.7 DRB%, 47.9 TRB%
Rui off: 22.2 ORB%, 72.4 DRB%, 46.7 TRB%

Last time I checked the numbers, for the season-to-date as of December 6th, they were:

Rui on: 21.5 ORB%, 72.7 DRB%, and 46.3 TRB%
Rui off: 21.7 ORB%, 79.2 DRB%, and 48.9 TRB%

Think what you will about the sample size, but as far as a trend goes it looks like we're still taking a slight hit in terms of team offensive rebounding while Rui's on the court, but seeing a big improvement as far as the team's defensive rebounding goes. We're also rebounding quite a bit worse as a team in this second sample; speculatively, the easiest explanation might be the relative health of Thomas Bryant during each of those two samples?

PIF, I feel like we've run into this before (e.g. last time I trotted these numbers out) - what's your issue with the idea that players can have a positive effect on team rebounding without, themselves, being the ones getting the rebounds?

[payitforward]

It's not inconceivable that there's some boundary effect. Probably there is -- like the often trotted out "spacing" effect. That too has to be there. But, these effects are secondary & minor, really minor, as it would be possible to show via statistical regression (& probably has been).

As well -- just as in the case of the spacing effect -- those measurements you cite are not a "with Rui" vs. "without Rui" data set. When Rui is in, someone else is out; when he's out, someone else is in. Different lineups for that matter. Really you'd have to find data for every possible group of 4 w/ whom Rui plays, then measure that group with him in & with him out -- but that 2d measurement would have to be taken for each alternative to Rui. Oh, & you'd have to regularize for the varying opponents & their overall rebounding.

Pretty close to impossible. Not to mention that, for any of these individual measurements to gain any trust, they would, every one of them, have to be based on a sample set that warranted confidence. But... it's unlikely that many (any?) would be large enough for that.

All that on its own is enough to make this a pretty worthless pursuit. But... there's something more important & much more basic that underlays it.

Tell me: are we going to be able to judge, to any meaningful degree, how good a player is? If so, we have to give him responsibility for his numbers -- credit where he deserves praise & criticism where that's what he deserves.

I note, for example, that you weren't suggesting that Rui's improved TS% was a function of what some other players were doing! When you describe him as having improved, you give him credit for his improved 3-point shot. & that's how it should be.

IOW, this perspective is trotted out to explain away a weakness. Really, just the obvious motivation of the line of thought should suffice to make one drop it.

Moreover, Rui doesn't need the help! He's improving, which means, most importantly, that he can improve! He's capable of it. That's an important thing to learn about a rookie! It's the 2d thing you hope to learn, the first being that he's capable of playing in the league at any not-disastrously-low level (which Rui showed right away).

Does this mean that nabbing Rui will turn out to have been the best thing to do w/ the asset we had? The #9 pick? No, it doesn't. It is almost inconceivable for it to turn out that way.

But, that's irrelevant. That's about how to manage the draft, how our FO managed the draft. Not about Rui.

Nor is it equivalent to handing out an "F" to Tommy! Not when Barrett went #3, Hunter #4 & Culver, Garland & White followed. & not when 3 minutes after we took Rui, the geniuses at Atlanta followed up their pick of Hunter by taking Cam Reddish.

Now, that gets you an "F"!! Then look at all the trades they made to position themselves properly to p#ss in their own soup before sitting down to lunch! Good God!!

[payitforward]

If you want to be happy with Rui the player -- it's easy: go look at picks #3-19. Find me one player who is doing better than Rui as a rookie.

Cam Johnson has been just about equally productive, & I'm sure Boston is happy w/ Tyler Herro's rookie production coming out after 1 year of college, but he hasn't been as good overall as Rui.

Then again, if you want to critique Rui the #9 pick -- that's easy too. The #20 pick has been better than him, & #21 pick has outplayed him by 1000%, the #22 pick has been about the same as him.

[badinage]

I would say Matisse Thybulle has a marginally better name than Rui Hachimura. But even that’s debatable. But no way is he a better player. No way has he played better this season. And no way was he a “better pick” relative to his draft position.

[wall_glizzy]

It's not inconceivable that there's some boundary effect. Probably there is -- like the often trotted out "spacing" effect. That too has to be there. But, these effects are secondary & minor, really minor, as it would be possible to show via statistical regression (& probably has been).

As well -- just as in the case of the spacing effect -- those measurements you cite are not a "with Rui" vs. "without Rui" data set. When Rui is in, someone else is out; when he's out, someone else is in. Different lineups for that matter. Really you'd have to find data for every possible group of 4 w/ whom Rui plays, then measure that group with him in & with him out -- but that 2d measurement would have to be taken for each alternative to Rui. Oh, & you'd have to regularize for the varying opponents & their overall rebounding.

Well, no. You're right about the requisite methodology if I wanted to create some kind of "rebounds above replacement" stat for Rui, but - ignoring the fact that I was once again just trying to present some data relevant to the claims being batted back and forth - this is sufficient to support the idea that Wizards lineups including Rui are rebounding better than those without. In fact, since Rui was sidelined for a significant period of this particular sample (essentially YTD 2020), it might be even more useful since the sample would include a fair amount of minutes from the usual starting lineup save for one player present in Rui's place.

You're right about an adjacent effect, where sometimes +/- and similar numbers can get wonky when looked at for players who are subject to very strict rotations and have little variation in the subset of their roster with whom they do and do not play (think IT's poisoning of every other starter's defensive metrics). And also that a player's effect on team TRB% isn't a perfect all-in-one measurement either - five guys boxing out, even at an elite level, leaves no one to get the rebound. It can be useful to give some weight to rebounding numbers (or a lack thereof), though.

Not sure who the remaining... ten paragraphs were addressed to.

[payitforward]

Me neither, but if you run into him pass them along, ok?

[payitforward]

I would say Matisse Thybulle has a marginally better name than Rui Hachimura. But even that’s debatable. But no way is he a better player. No way has he played better this season. And no way was he a “better pick” relative to his draft position.

I don't know about his name. As to the rest of what you write, hey, opinions are free -- go ahead & have as many as you like. I'm about to make some guacamole; you can have some with your opinions.

[payitforward]

...You're ...ignoring the fact that I was once again just trying to present some data relevant to the claims being batted back and forth - this is sufficient to support the idea that Wizards lineups including Rui are rebounding better than those without....

Oh for.... Suppose the guy who comes in for Rui (in every lineup) is a tremendous rebounder. What happens to your point? Suppose the guy who comes in for Rui is a crap rebounder -- wow, your point looks great. IOW, there is no such pair of data sets as "with Rui" & "without Rui." So, no, you can base nothing on them.

Why don't you try substituting FT% & then tell me Rui's presence helps other guys shoot their FTs better or worse depending on what you find.

[badinage]

Rui’s TS is higher than Mondrian Thigh Bull, his rebounding rate is nearly triple that of his, and his PER is more than 50% higher. To choose just a few advanced stats metrics.

I can’t say whether Monet Thy Bol has shown improvement over the season; dunno. But Rui clearly has. It’s been talked about on this site a bit over the past week.

And Modigliani Tha Boule looks to be a great defender, but so far is — to quote Liev Schreiber in “Daytrippers” — “a pointer who can’t point.” In this case, a shooting guard who can’t shoot. On a team that can’t shoot. Thus gumming up the game for two wondrously talented players in Embiid and Simmons.