2019-20 Wild, Wild West thread

[THE J0KER]

Trade-deadline week, winners and losers on the West:

THE WINNERS (contenders):
Clippers

THE WINNERS (rebuilding teams):
Wolves
Sacramento
Grizzlies

HARD TO SAY:
Rockets

ACTIVE LOSERS:
Warriors
Nuggets

PASSIVE LOSERS:
Lakers
Mavs

What website did you regurgitate that off of, most on RealGM believe we weren't LOSERS when we were going to expectedly lose Juancho and Beasley for nothing or have to go deep into the Luxury Tax to resign them ???

I give my personal opinion.

We are not rebuilding team anymore but TOP5, so making roster weaker before the playoff makes you trade-deadline loser, and the value of late 1st round pick is less important for team this deep and this young already. For me, the biggest weakness we showed during the 2019 playoff campaign was 3pt% shooting, and we just traded our most trustful 3p% shooter in past two seasons.

[skywalker33]

Trade-deadline week, winners and losers on the West:

THE WINNERS (contenders):
Clippers

THE WINNERS (rebuilding teams):
Wolves
Sacramento
Grizzlies

HARD TO SAY:
Rockets

ACTIVE LOSERS:
Warriors
Nuggets

PASSIVE LOSERS:
Lakers
Mavs

What website did you regurgitate that off of, most on RealGM believe we weren't LOSERS when we were going to expectedly lose Juancho and Beasley for nothing or have to go deep into the Luxury Tax to resign them ???

I give my personal opinion.

We are not rebuilding team anymore but TOP5, so making roster weaker before the playoff makes you trade-deadline loser, and the value of late 1st round pick is less important for team this deep and this young already. For me, the biggest weakness we showed during the 2019 playoff campaign was 3pt% shooting, and we just traded our most trustful 3p% shooter in past two seasons.

So, how do you evaluate this part of your personal opinion ?? Beasley is really the only asset of any value for our playoff run and yet you KNOW McRae (his likely replacement) isn't capable of the same type of production ??? You're a stat guy so let's look at that:

1. McRae is taller than Beasley.
2. He's shooting a higher 2pt% - 42% to 39%
3. He's shooting a higher 3pt% - 38% to 36%
4. Beasley is the better FT shooter - 86% to 77%
5. McRae's PER is at a 15.4 to Beasley's 10.6
6. You can even check the advanced stats if you like McRae is up to it

The biggest questionable would be chemistry which we don't know yet

Juancho and Vandy have been negligible impact on this team, the best we can say is it lateral impact for this year until we see what Vonlah and KBD can bring.

[THE J0KER]

Spoiler:

What website did you regurgitate that off of, most on RealGM believe we weren't LOSERS when we were going to expectedly lose Juancho and Beasley for nothing or have to go deep into the Luxury Tax to resign them ???

I give my personal opinion.

We are not rebuilding team anymore but TOP5, so making roster weaker before the playoff makes you trade-deadline loser, and the value of late 1st round pick is less important for team this deep and this young already. For me, the biggest weakness we showed during the 2019 playoff campaign was 3pt% shooting, and we just traded our most trustful 3p% shooter in past two seasons.

So, how do you evaluate this part of your personal opinion ?? Beasley is really the only asset of any value for our playoff run and yet you KNOW McRae (his likely replacement) isn't capable of the same type of production ??? You're a stat guy so let's look at that:

1. McRae is taller than Beasley.
2. He's shooting a higher 2pt% - 42% to 39%
3. He's shooting a higher 3pt% - 38% to 36%
4. Beasley is the better FT shooter - 86% to 77%
5. McRae's PER is at a 15.4 to Beasley's 10.6
6. You can even check the advanced stats if you like McRae is up to it

The biggest questionable would be chemistry which we don't know yet

Juancho and Vandy have been negligible impact on this team, the best we can say is it lateral impact for this year until we see what Vonlah and KBD can bring.

Beasley's world is broken when he realizes after great 2018-19 season where he was Denver arguably 5th best player that team will not extend his contract and that he even lost his position and playing time in Denver's regular bench rotation, so his awful efficiency this half-season compared to fantastic 47-40-85 numbers from previous season everyone can understand.

McRae is a player from the 18-32 losing team, while Denver is the 36-16 winning team so far. Can you even imagine how different would be this season numbers (starting with playing time) of Beasley or Plumlee or Porter jr or Juancho or Morris... if they played for Washington instead Denver, so comparing Beasley and McRae on the way you do is just wrong. Malik Beasley is just 23old, so for him is more relevant his peak season (last season), and watch at him now in Minnesota when he will probably get starters job.

[skywalker33]

Beasley's world is broken when he realizes after great 2018-19 season where he was Denver arguably 5th best player that team will not extend his contract and that he even lost his position and playing time in Denver's regular bench rotation, so his awful efficiency this half-season compared to fantastic 47-40-85 numbers from previous season everyone can understand.

The Nuggets offered him $10M a year, that's not a contract extension ??? And his ego (or new agent ?) couldn't handle that shows he's being greedy. Also, with the emergence of MPJ and the knowledge that HE, by his own greediness, isn't going to be part of this team, Malone played other players who were outplaying him to build TEAM chemistry, that should be negated because he's leaving ??? That seems your argument is anti-Nugget to me

McRae is a player from the 18-32 losing team, while Denver is the 36-16 winning team so far. Can you even imagine how different would be this season numbers (starting with playing time) of Beasley or Plumlee or Porter jr or Juancho or Morris... if they played for Washington instead Denver, so comparing Beasley and McRae on the way you do is just wrong. Malik Beasley is just 23old, so for him is more relevant his peak season (last season), and watch at him now in Minnesota when he will probably get starters job.

I don't think the comparison is wrong, I will concede McRae got more opportunity in WAS than he'll likely see here, but in all likelyhood, McRae IS the replacement for Beasley. Also, can you imagine how much more money we WEREN'T going to pay Beasley if he got that PT as you suggest ?? He wasn't going to get it here so we'd lose him for NOTHING, is that what you'd prefer, seems that what you're alluding to. I have already gone on record as saying Beasley was the best player in our part of the deal, but keeping him here was just a pipe deal.

[NuggetsWY]

IMHO - Beasley had great potential but was on a team with a coach that just doesn't usually use young talent - until he's forced to. Beasley never truly forced that. He began with too little defense and that cost him opportunities to play consistently and he appears to be a man that needs consistent minutes to show his offense. His defense has been improving, but he's not considered a defensive force.

McRae on the other hand is a man who understands his role and appears to be able to produce even when being given inconsistent minutes. He's not considered a defensive force either. But his offense fits better in Denver, simply because it's there even without consistent minutes.

Beasley appears to have more talent and we might regret trading him, but it might have cost too much to keep him. As Rebel said, shoulda', woulda', coulda' traded him earlier but that isn't the way our front office works. They forget this is a business and they get all sentimental over their players. Most teams tend to over-value their players (and fans are worse), but the Nuggets just seem to go too far past most teams.

Top teams tend to have 4-6 guys that are crucial and the rest are expendable. "The rest" come and go as the team tries to find the right mix of talent. Meanwhile the Nuggets seem focused on finding "nice guys".

Jokic - Porter - Murray appear to be our future. The rest of the team needs to be built around maximizing their talents. IMO, the ideal teammates are players like Korver, Reddick, Bertans. Mixed with athletic players with solid defense.

[Manolito]

It looks like the key game to seal a top3 seed is on the 8th April at home vs Utah .

Winning that makes almost impossible for Utah to overcome 5 games deficit in 27 games barring a Nuggets collapse

[skywalker33]

IMHO - Beasley had great potential but was on a team with a coach that just doesn't usually use young talent - until he's forced to. Beasley never truly forced that. He began with too little defense and that cost him opportunities to play consistently and he appears to be a man that needs consistent minutes to show his offense. His defense has been improving, but he's not considered a defensive force.

For me it's hard to place all the blame on Malone. I agree much of the fault was Malone wants Harris's defense on the floor but I truly think Beasley had enough defensive skill to push himself into the starting lineup IF he put forth the effort, which he didn't. Coming off the bench he always tried to exert himself as a scorer. Going against other bench guys, if he truly had starter mentality, his skillset would have allowed him to shutdown and dominate the opposing players he was guarding and it rarely happened. It seemed to me he was laid-back filling his role than making a point to Malone that he was the better player or that at the least was capable of more.

[skywalker33]

Good listen here, kinda gives some insight on our future playoff roadblocks (28:30) is where it gets more in depth

https://www.denverstiffs.com/2020/2/10/21131347/pickaxe-podcast-nba-trade-deadline-recap-denver-nuggets-way-nikola-jokic-michael-porter-jr

[THE J0KER]

If we beat Lakers tonight, I would grade our season before ASG break with A without thinking, but now it is A-. Hold #2 seed on West should be a priority for the rest of the season, in eventual WC semifinal vs Clippers only homecourt advantage will make our chances realistic.

[THE J0KER]

Good reads analysis about Western Conference rosters:
Lakers' small ball, Rockets' bench units and most important lineups for Western Conference's top contenders


The part about Denver Nuggets:

Denver Nuggets
Most important lineup: Monte Morris, Will Barton, Michael Porter Jr., Jerami Grant, Mason Plumlee

Nuggets coach Mike Malone tends to fall back on old-school substitution patterns. Eschewing the analytically-approved method of staggering his stars, Malone prefers to handcuff Nikola Jokic to Jamal Murray and handle substitutions in waves. Denver's starting lineup of Jokic, Murray, Gary Harris, Paul Millsap and Will Barton has played the second-most minutes of any five-man group in the NBA despite the players that comprise it missing 46 total games so far this season. Malone plays them together, and as a result, usually rests them together.

This was especially true in the 2019 playoffs. Murray played only 94 possessions without Jokic last season compared to nearly 900 with him. The Nuggets played 145 total possessions with both benched in those playoffs, and were decimated by over 36 points per 100 possessions. It's not an exaggeration to suggest overreliance on bench mobs cost Denver a trip to the Western Conference finals.

But such lineups are built into Malone's DNA as a coach, and if he goes back to them this time around, it puts his youngest rotation player in a very interesting position. Michael Porter Jr. projects to eventually become the sort of one-on-one scoring threat that can carry an offense without Jokic and Murray, but asking him to do so as a rookie is a dangerous bet for a contender to make. But Denver doesn't need its bench to win games. It just needs it not to lose them. Lineups featuring Porter without Jokic and Murray have largely played opponents to a draw so far this season, getting outscored by 0.6 points per 100 over the course of 588 possessions.

Practically every Murray-Jokic alignment posts championship-caliber numbers. Surviving the minutes they sit is going to be one of their keys to an extended playoff run. Malone will tinker with the group surrounding him, but the fundamental idea of Porter plus role players is likely going to be Denver's plan entering the playoffs.

[NuggetsWY]

Good reads analysis about Western Conference rosters:
Lakers' small ball, Rockets' bench units and most important lineups for Western Conference's top contenders

The part about Denver Nuggets:

Denver Nuggets
Most important lineup: Monte Morris, Will Barton, Michael Porter Jr., Jerami Grant, Mason Plumlee

Nuggets coach Mike Malone tends to fall back on old-school substitution patterns. Eschewing the analytically-approved method of staggering his stars, Malone prefers to handcuff Nikola Jokic to Jamal Murray and handle substitutions in waves. Denver's starting lineup of Jokic, Murray, Gary Harris, Paul Millsap and Will Barton has played the second-most minutes of any five-man group in the NBA despite the players that comprise it missing 46 total games so far this season. Malone plays them together, and as a result, usually rests them together.

This was especially true in the 2019 playoffs. Murray played only 94 possessions without Jokic last season compared to nearly 900 with him. The Nuggets played 145 total possessions with both benched in those playoffs, and were decimated by over 36 points per 100 possessions. It's not an exaggeration to suggest overreliance on bench mobs cost Denver a trip to the Western Conference finals.

But such lineups are built into Malone's DNA as a coach, and if he goes back to them this time around, it puts his youngest rotation player in a very interesting position. Michael Porter Jr. projects to eventually become the sort of one-on-one scoring threat that can carry an offense without Jokic and Murray, but asking him to do so as a rookie is a dangerous bet for a contender to make. But Denver doesn't need its bench to win games. It just needs it not to lose them. Lineups featuring Porter without Jokic and Murray have largely played opponents to a draw so far this season, getting outscored by 0.6 points per 100 over the course of 588 possessions.

Practically every Murray-Jokic alignment posts championship-caliber numbers. Surviving the minutes they sit is going to be one of their keys to an extended playoff run. Malone will tinker with the group surrounding him, but the fundamental idea of Porter plus role players is likely going to be Denver's plan entering the playoffs.

Definitely an interesting read - on all the teams. The Nuggets' section focused on Malone, which is an interesting statement. Regarding the Nuggets, rotation is definitely critical, as the article points out.

This quote says it all for the Nuggets.
"But Denver doesn't need its bench to win games. It just needs it not to lose them."

[skywalker33]

Well, to put it into perspective....written by CBS sports.

[THE J0KER]

Our projected SF opponent will be most probably Clippers which we facing today. The other options are Houston if Nuggets and Rockets both finish ahead Clippers, which I think is not realistic because Clippers are tied with DEN and HOU after Kawhi and George missed 35 games combined, which will not be the case so often in the regular-season finish. The other scenario is Nuggets facing Lakers in WC-SF if Clippers and Rockets both overtake us. Jazz, Mavs, and OKC seems away from the TOP4 race, so only with our very bad finish, someone can dump Nuggets from 1st round homecourt advantage. But UTA/DAL/OKC tied race is actually very interesting to us, to see who will we face in the very challenging 1st round. All three teams are dangerous on their way, and in the terms of the quality, they are not worse than was Portland last season, which upset OKC in 1st round and then Nuggets in SF to reach surprisingly the conference final.

That is why tonight showdown vs Clippers in L.A. is so important for Nuggets to see where are we now, and is going to be a great test about the potential 2020 PO-SF series. Positionally, this matchup can't be more different, because Denver PG-C axis Murray-Jokic so dominating here, but Clippers SG-SF-PF Lou-Kawhi-George really killing us. Our X-factor can be MPJ to amortize a big gap in Clippers favors on the forward spot, but it depends on Malone's decision.

[Manolito]

Rockets and Jazz in normal conditions are going to lose 5-6 games, that means if we only lose 7 games in these last 20, we will get the 3rd seed. Forget the Clippers, they have an easy schedule.

9 games at home, 11 away. If we win all games at home (which is a lot to say, specially considering the teams we are playing like Bucks, Clippers, Jazz,...) we need to win at least 4-5 games away (because we won´t win all the games at home):
@CLE
@DAL
@SAS
@LAL
@OKC
@TOR
@CHI
@MIA
@GSW
@POR
@UTH

Honestly I don´t see 4-5 clear W on the road. it is going to be tough to maintain the 3seed

[THE J0KER]

Rockets and Jazz in normal conditions are going to lose 5-6 games, that means if we only lose 7 games in these last 20, we will get the 3rd seed. Forget the Clippers, they have an easy schedule.

9 games at home, 11 away. If we win all games at home (which is a lot to say, specially considering the teams we are playing like Bucks, Clippers, Jazz,...) we need to win at least 4-5 games away (because we won´t win all the games at home):
@CLE
@DAL
@SAS
@LAL
@OKC
@TOR
@CHI
@MIA
@GSW
@POR
@UTH

Honestly I don´t see 4-5 clear W on the road. it is going to be tough to maintain the 3seed

In 3 games we are bold favorites vs bottom teams, and when we will face Portland in April they will be without theoretical chances to reach the playoff. Denver has great record this season so far vs over .500 winning teams, and we playing much better than ever on the road during the Malone era. We are clear favorites in the race for #3 seed over Utah, and with slightly better chances than Rockets, but if Clippers load management story is over, I agree that #2 seed is far away than current standings shows it.

[NuggetsWY]

Whether the Nuggets are favored or not, does not seem important. We can lose games we are favored to win and win games we are expected to lose.

Lakers are 9-1 in their last 10 games
Clippers 7-3

6-4 Nuggets Houston Utah OKC Dallas

Memphis 5-5