Around The NBA: 2019-20 RESTART

Post #1441 » by **Ice Man** » Fri Mar 6, 2020 9:16 pm

I know that some people are tired of bearing about Jimmy Butler, but this isn't really about Butler. It's about the different conclusions that eye tests, conventional statistics, and modern statistics have.

I don't know of anybody who would say that Jimmy Butler is a Top 10 NBA this year on an eye test. He often takes a back seat on the offense, and defensively much of his value consists of positioning -- staying in front of his man, hedging, help defense. I mean, he's just not a spectacular player. At 20-/7/6 his per-game stats are nice, but nothing outstanding in today's high-scoring game.

I mean, I'm as big a Butler fan as exists, but even I have been thinking that well he's getting too much credit for Miami playing well, he's 30 now and slowing, Bam is killing it, some of the Miami young scorers are doing well, Miami has a great system and cuilture.

Then I go look at 538's RAPTOR evaluation system, which is a new modern analytics tool. Yeah it's related to other ones but not the same. And sure enough ... Butler is Top 10 again. He's 7th. He's ahead of Dame, AD, Paul George, Tatum, Jokic, Embiid, and Kemba, among others.

Now one can quarrel with that stat, with any statistic. My point is not about that stat specifically, or Butler specifically, but rather the sometimes large gap that exists between eye tests, raw stats, and modern stats, and how for some players no matter how you run the modern statistic it seems to come up with a different conclusion than the other two ways of evaluating players.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-nba-player-ratings/

For the players who always seem to do better with modern stats, the conclusion seems to come down to 1) Those measures are bogus, or 2) Some guys do off-the-ball/BBIQ stuff that is very valuable but persistently gets missed by other forms of evaluation.

PaKii94 · Post #1442 » by **PaKii94** » Fri Mar 6, 2020 9:38 pm

Ice Man wrote:I know that some people are tired of bearing about Jimmy Butler, but this isn't really about Butler. It's about the different conclusions that eye tests, conventional statistics, and modern statistics have.

I don't know of anybody who would say that Jimmy Butler is a Top 10 NBA this year on an eye test. He often takes a back seat on the offense, and defensively much of his value consists of positioning -- staying in front of his man, hedging, help defense. I mean, he's just not a spectacular player. At 20-/7/6 his per-game stats are nice, but nothing outstanding in today's high-scoring game.

I mean, I'm as big a Butler fan as exists, but even I have been thinking that well he's getting too much credit for Miami playing well, he's 30 now and slowing, Bam is killing it, some of the Miami young scorers are doing well, Miami has a great system and cuilture.

Then I go look at 538's RAPTOR evaluation system, which is a new modern analytics tool. Yeah it's related to other ones but not the same. And sure enough ... Butler is Top 10 again. He's 7th. He's ahead of Dame, AD, Paul George, Tatum, Jokic, Embiid, and Kemba, among others.

Now one can quarrel with that stat, with any statistic. My point is not about that stat specifically, or Butler specifically, but rather the sometimes large gap that exists between eye tests, raw stats, and modern stats, and how for some players no matter how you run the modern statistic it seems to come up with a different conclusion than the other two ways of evaluating players.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-nba-player-ratings/

For the players who always seem to do better with modern stats, the conclusion seems to come down to 1) Those measures are bogus, or 2) Some guys do off-the-ball/BBIQ stuff that is very valuable but persistently gets missed by other forms of evaluation.

The thing missing for most people's analysis with butler is he has no fatal flaws (I guess you can say shooting this year). He does everything at an above average level and then as a bonus has a few elite traits that have big impact. He's elite in drawing FTs, not turning the ball over, playing defense, and making the right reads. Those kind of players are far fewer than can be had. All those 4 things are KEY to winning basketball. If he is a positive on each of those with just one possession a game, that's already a "+8" on the impact without discussing anything else about his game.

All the other players you listed have inherent flaws to their game that limit their peaks. Dame/Kemba don't have defense or positional size. AD/Jokic/Embiid have to be fed as big men. PG/Tatum don't have the FT drawing abilities or playmaking abilities that Jimmy does.

Jimmy gets underrated because #1 he's not a flashy player. #2 POiNtS

It's funny you bring this up right now because I just saw this tweet earlier today:

Read on Twitter

90th percentile pretty much in everything but interior defense, shooting and one on one. Not to hate on Lavine some more, but Lavine is pretty much the opposite of Jimmy. Excellent in one on one and scoring but deficient in everything else.

Jcool0 · Post #1443 » by **Jcool0** » Fri Mar 6, 2020 9:39 pm

Read on Twitter

Post #1444 » by **Ice Man** » Fri Mar 6, 2020 9:50 pm

Speaking of off-ball-movement, you know who is good at that? Zion. People talk about him playing bully ball and not having great skills, but I see a guy who is elite at off the ball (both running on the break and half court), and elite at body positioning. He is so good at sealing off players inside, knowing how to shift and when, calling for the pass, and so forth. Those are skills too. I grant that he's not an elite shooter or dribbler, but he has some really good skills besides that they play supremely into how he is built.

Which is kinda like the Harden/Giannis beef. Yes Giannis can't do a whole bunch of things that Harden does. But Giannis has learned skills about using his strength and height that Harden will never learn, because they are not relevant for him.

Post #1445 » by **Ice Man** » Fri Mar 6, 2020 9:51 pm

Jcool0 wrote:

Read on Twitter

Dang. I've been on Team Lakers vs. Team Load Management in that debate, but I might have to go for the Clippers now.

PaKii94 · Post #1446 » by **PaKii94** » Fri Mar 6, 2020 9:57 pm

Ice Man wrote:Speaking of off-ball-movement, you know who is good at that? Zion. People talk about him playing bully ball and not having great skills, but I see a guy who is elite at off the ball (both running on the break and half court), and elite at body positioning. He is so good at sealing off players inside, knowing how to shift and when, calling for the pass, and so forth. Those are skills too. I grant that he's not an elite shooter or dribbler, but he has some really good skills besides that they play supremely into how he is built.

Which is kinda like the Harden/Giannis beef. Yes Giannis can't do a whole bunch of things that Harden does. But Giannis has learned skills about using his strength and height that Harden will never learn, because they are not relevant for him.

Exactly. Those kind of fundementals you can't just work on and learn later on. It's almost ingrained when basketball skills are first being developed. That's why Zion is a tantalizing player. Dribbling & shooting can be learned if you have the baseline.

dice · Post #1447 » by **dice** » Sat Mar 7, 2020 12:47 am

Dresden wrote:
dice wrote:
Dresden wrote:
Sure, you can argue a player here or there might be better or worse than the guy we picked, but the overall picture is that the Bulls did pretty well in selecting guys that have proven to be decent picks for where they were taken. Not horrible, as you stated in your post. And yes, they did whiff badly on McDermott and Teague. But teams whiff all the freaking time in the draft.

so what we've got is a bunch of mediocre choices and a couple of horrible (and more importantly, MISGUIDED) whiffs. that's well below average performance. which is a big reason the bulls are a bad team

But as I pointed out, those other choices were not "mediocre". It was the draft that was mediocre.

mediocre by default is still mediocre

What you're saying is that they didn't find any hidden gems

nor unhidden gems. they have not done well at a particular draft slot A SINGLE TIME since the jimmy butler draft. often not their fault, of course

Post #1448 » by **Ice Man** » Sat Mar 7, 2020 1:56 pm

Duncan Robinson has taken 26 shots over the past two games, all of which were 3 point attempts. (He made 17.) Take about a specialist ...

Jcool0 · Post #1449 » by **Jcool0** » Sat Mar 7, 2020 2:37 pm

Read on Twitter

Jimako10 · Post #1450 » by **Jimako10** » Sat Mar 7, 2020 3:00 pm

Jcool0 wrote:

Read on Twitter

Read on Twitter

Wow this is kind of a shocker. A playoff team firing a coach? I thought Atkinson did a good job in BKN with the roster that was given the last couple years, there must be something going on behind the scenes.

Boylen still remains!

FriedRise · Post #1451 » by **FriedRise** » Sat Mar 7, 2020 3:14 pm

Is Atkinson a yes man? If yes, he can be the next Bulls head coach!

pipfan · Post #1452 » by **pipfan** » Sat Mar 7, 2020 4:56 pm

Bulls should fire Boylan today and make him an offer

Southpaw · Post #1453 » by **Southpaw** » Sat Mar 7, 2020 5:05 pm

I came looking looking to post about Atkinson. The Nets developed a lot of your players in his time so he seems like a good coach, but I'm not sure how much of that is because of him.

Andi Obst · Post #1454 » by **Andi Obst** » Sat Mar 7, 2020 5:16 pm

Atkinson's top assistant from last season is already here, soooo...

Please just make it happen, Bulls. We deserve better.

Post #1455 » by **Payt10** » Sat Mar 7, 2020 7:32 pm

The Atkinson firing came out of nowhere. They're currently in the playoffs; Kyrie only played in 20 games this year; Kevin Durant has missed the entire season. I'm honestly not sure what they could have possibly expected, given the circumstances.

At any rate, Atkinson should definitely be one of the guys on the Bulls short list to replace Boylen—hopefully without the interference from Forman and Paxson.

Red8911 · Post #1456 » by **Red8911** » Sat Mar 7, 2020 8:37 pm

Nets firing Atkinson is so odd, he has been over achieving with them for 2-3 years now and this is how he leaves. Wonder what made them do this now right before the playoffs, was it money or did they want to tank and Atkinson refused?

The bulls should definitely be interested in him, he brought the nets out of a terrible situation and I’m sure he can do it here too.

TheStig · Post #1457 » by **TheStig** » Sat Mar 7, 2020 9:03 pm

I think Dave Joeger, Kenny Atkinson and Thibs both need to get a serious look as the next head coach. I don't think you're going to have anyone better come along this summer than one of those 3. Any of the 3 would be a massive improvement on Boylen. Bulls should be negotiating with one now.

jc23 · Post #1458 » by **jc23** » Sun Mar 8, 2020 12:51 am

pipfan wrote:Bulls should fire Boylan today and make him an offer

Firing a coach you still own money to for a third time in a row is the definition of a fireable offense imo.

Although, its also a move that would instantly be a morale boost to the fanbase.

GameBredAPBT · Post #1459 » by **GameBredAPBT** » Sun Mar 8, 2020 4:02 am

TheStig wrote:I think Dave Joeger, Kenny Atkinson and Thibs both need to get a serious look as the next head coach. I don't think you're going to have anyone better come along this summer than one of those 3. Any of the 3 would be a massive improvement on Boylen. Bulls should be negotiating with one now.

Thibs is terrible, no way. This isn’t 2010. I dunno if he’ll ever coach in the nba again, and certainly not for Chicago. Not unless he changes his way big time. His tenure in Minnesota was disastrous

Kenny & Joerger, Of course. Obvious answers.

GameBredAPBT · Post #1460 » by **GameBredAPBT** » Sun Mar 8, 2020 4:08 am

Red8911 wrote:Nets firing Atkinson is so odd, he has been over achieving with them for 2-3 years now and this is how he leaves. Wonder what made them do this now right before the playoffs, was it money or did they want to tank and Atkinson refused?

The bulls should definitely be interested in him, he brought the nets out of a terrible situation and I’m sure he can do it here too.

Put yourself in his shoes: you’ve got a wonderful thing going, and the owner guts your team to bring in some overrated nut job who refuses to play defense & is largely a toxic bench warmer, and throws huge money at a high mileage vet who will never play elite ball again. Can you blame him? They thwarted everything he worked for

The Nets were successful last yr because of Kenny & in spite of their horrid ownership. This isn’t surprising, it’s back to being the same old Nets disaster of a franchise. Signing tweedle dee & tweedle dum to huge contracts is going to resemble the crippling Celtics trade. They really had a bright future courtesy of Atkinson, and they threw it away