winforlose wrote:Jedzz wrote:winforlose wrote:
Okogie had more than three impactful plays. Just off the top of my head he forced Holiday to step out of bounds. The simple truth is JO is 6’4 and being forced to guard guys 2-4 inches taller. He would have an easier time as backup SG, but his hustle, rebounding, passing, and intangibles make him vital at the moment. If he develops a league average 3 then he could be a starter, otherwise he will be a 6th man next year.
Hernangomez is a lot like KBD. On paper they don’t play the same, but the truth is both struggle off the dribble, both struggle at the rim. Both have defensive trouble (KBD for his speed, Hernangomez for his size and strength,) and both can hit the 3 but have a much higher percentage on catch and shoot. Hernangomez made an excellent case for being a backup 3 or 4 and never starting even when the starter is hurt. If he is fast enough to play the 3 then he should play there, otherwise he backs up whoever starts at 3 next season and if that guy goes down Layman starts and JH backs him up. Meanwhile, Layman moves to backup 3 next season.
Why shouldn't layman start at 3 right now?
Simple answer, Okogie is better than Layman at every aspect of the game. Okogie’s passing set up several of our 3s in both the last 2 poor shooting games. I could list all the things I think JO does that have value but I don’t want to spend the time. Simple answer, Layman isn’t all the way back yet. His wind, his shot, his defense, he isn’t ready to start. I don’t expect Culver to be on the team next year, so I wish he would be taken out of the rotation and sent to Iowa. Okogie is likely to be either backup SG or backup SF depending on what we do in the off season. At the moment, Okogie is the best available SF, and since Ryan still wants to win (good luck to him,) Okogie needs to start.
Oh I have doubt regarding that first sentance. But I like your confidence in him.
I believe Layman had the best defensive rating going of any Wolves players up until his toe implosion. He was also averaging 11 pts at that time. I remember reading both of those points before during his absence. Also, it was evident to many how the season record started to spiral after his injury.
Josh is averaging 8.6 pts as a starter. Jake is now down to 9 since returning from the injury and only has two starts on the season from before the injury.
Overall I think if you look at on/off that Okogie doesn't have much positive impact on the team, at least not compared to Layman. Nearly across the board on/off Layman is positive difference and Okogie isn't. Niether greatly change the Wolves offensively, but when Layman is off the court, the opponents offensive rating skyrockets to nearly top 5 range and when he's on the court the opponents are in the bottom5 range for OffRtng. When Okogie is off court the opponents OffRtg drops slightly, as does their eFG%, and when Okogie is on the court the opponents OffRtg is nearly top5 to top10 range.
That difference in Opponents OffRtng seems large to me. Unless maybe that is the difference between playing against starting 5s and bench 5s showing in those numbers. I can't be certain. I haven't looked at how many minutes are overlapping with these two. But regardless, Opponents are still rating in the top5 range while Okogie is playing and he's one 5th of that issue.