Semi-OT: Coronavirus Discussion Thread II (Info post 1)

[Dirk]

Useful Links:

--- Johns Hopkins. Coronavirus COVID-19 Global Cases

--- Up-to-date and global information ncov2019.live

--- Q&A on coronaviruses (COVID-19)

--- worldometers.info/coronavirus

--- CDC 2019-nCoV factsheet[

--- 2019ncov.health/info/

This thread is aimed at having an elevated discussion.

You can disagree. You can be sceptical. But please, make sure that you bring some substance so that the discussion can be productive. We should all be on the same side here. And particularly, we should appreciate how many users we have from all parts of the US and the world and have quick access to different experiences.

While a joke here and there shouldn't be a problem, please be mindful that topics such as these can quickly spiral out of control. So leave the jokes for other topics. Try to take this topic serious enough and respect everyone else, particularly those who clearly are taking the time to share good information.

Notes:

- posting useful info and updates is greatly appreciated

- if you post data, please link to the source. Don't post unverified data.

- no talk about internal politics that are off topic, posts must be related to the ongoing coronavirus outbreak

- no cheap attacks on groups of users or people, no baiting, no derailing

- no conspiracy theories

- Users who just make low effort posts and bait others will be suspended

- Users who continuously derail discussion will be suspended

- Users who post fake data will be suspended

- Use the report button

- Do not quote and reply to obvious bad posts, that just derails a topic and brings the level down

[/quote]

Remember. We are here for basketball. If we are going to dislike each other, let's dislike each other for our basketball opinions or teams or players we root for. These topics are fertile ground to get animosity. Be amicable and have an open mind. We are all on the same side /ends clichés

Any questions, PM any mod.

[Ambrose]

So it looks like it will be declared a National Emergency. Took too long. Still good news.

[Sgt Major]

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/notes-from-ucsf-expert-panel-march-10-dr-jordan-shlain-m-d-/?obama

University of California, San Francisco BioHub Panel on COVID-19

March 10, 2020

Panelists
Joe DeRisi: UCSF’s top infectious disease researcher. Co-president of ChanZuckerberg BioHub (a JV involving UCSF / Berkeley / Stanford). Co-inventor of the chip used in SARS epidemic.
Emily Crawford: COVID task force director. Focused on diagnostics
Cristina Tato: Rapid Response Director. Immunologist.
Patrick Ayescue: Leading outbreak response and surveillance. Epidemiologist.
Chaz Langelier: UCSF Infectious Disease doc

What’s below are essentially direct quotes from the panelists. I bracketed the few things that are not quotes.

Top takeaways
At this point, we are past containment. Containment is basically futile. Our containment efforts won’t reduce the number who get infected in the US.
Now we’re just trying to slow the spread, to help healthcare providers deal with the demand peak. In other words, the goal of containment is to "flatten the curve", to lower the peak of the surge of demand that will hit healthcare providers. And to buy time, in hopes a drug can be developed.
How many in the community already have the virus? No one knows.
We are moving from containment to care.
We in the US are currently where at where Italy was a week ago. We see nothing to say we will be substantially different.
40-70% of the US population will be infected over the next 12-18 months. After that level you can start to get herd immunity. Unlike flu this is entirely novel to humans, so there is no latent immunity in the global population.
[We used their numbers to work out a guesstimate of deaths— indicating about 1.5 million Americans may die. The panelists did not disagree with our estimate. This compares to seasonal flu’s average of 50K Americans per year. Assume 50% of US population, that’s 160M people infected. With 1% mortality rate that's 1.6M Americans die over the next 12-18 months.]
The fatality rate is in the range of 10X flu.
This assumes no drug is found effective and made available.
The death rate varies hugely by age. Over age 80 the mortality rate could be 10-15%. [See chart by age Signe found online, attached at bottom.]
Don’t know whether COVID-19 is seasonal but if is and subsides over the summer, it is likely to roar back in fall as the 1918 flu did
I can only tell you two things definitively. Definitively it’s going to get worse before it gets better. And we'll be dealing with this for the next year at least. Our lives are going to look different for the next year.



THIS AIN'T JUST A FLU

Take care about yourself and your close ones, read about this **** that hit us and don't act as if this is something blown out of proportions.

[NY 567]

My opinion is that this strand of the flu has been here in the states a lot longer than reported, but isn't quite as lethal as its made out to be. About 2 and a half months ago, I got sick, I had pretty bad chills for the first time in my life. The first day was the worst, the second day was pretty bad but a lot better, and it slowly tapered off over the next few days. This is total conjecture and I could obviously be wrong, but my guess is that this has been around for a lot longer than people realize and it's just that no one knew what it was.

[Bandit King]

It’s a really bad flu that causes phenomena


Suspended --- the user has been making low effort posts continuously.[/b]

[CodeBreaker]

per Japanese doctors this virus is not heat resistant and dies in higher temps, aka summer time

i thought that was debunked already?

[stitches]

My country just declared state of emergency today at least for the next 2 weeks.

They are closing all schools, all kindergartens, all extracurricular activities in groups for schoolkids, all universities. Where possible, they will continue classes online.

They are banning all group events - concerts, sports events, theaters, clubs, conferences, etc.

Closing all non-essential stores - only food supermarkets and drug stores will be open.

The private businesses are advised to let their employees work from home when possible, and when not possible to conduct their business in extreme caution and measures - filters, masks, disinfection, screening for illness of all personnel in beginning of the work day, etc.

In order to lessen the burden on the healthcare system all non-essential surgeries and procedures are postponed. All organ transplants are postponed. All seasonal medical checks and immunizations are suspended... all hospital visits are suspended, etc.

I'm kind of surprised this happened. Usually our bureaucracy is horrible and the state is very slow to move. The first indications I got that they might actually have good people working on this and advising the decision-makers was a press-conference yesterday where they mentioned they are monitoring how the disease is spreading in other countries and that we are just in the beginning of the curve of infections. I expected this will take several 100s people dying before they took measures for serious social distancing. I have no idea if this will work or to what extent it will work... who will watch the nurses' kids for example? Are we going to suffer shortage of medical workers? No idea. But I bet this wasn't an easy political decision to make. I never was a fan of my country's administration and political class, but I kind of am glad they are taking measures preemptively, rather than waiting for the **** to hit the fan... which it very likely will.

[mademan]

per Japanese doctors this virus is not heat resistant and dies in higher temps, aka summer time

If true, that's very encourage. Would explain why the rates in Africa and South America are lower.

I'd say that has more to do with the fact that they have way lower travel exposure to China compared to Europe and the US.

eh, as transmutable as it is, we still should be seeing the crisis in Africa and SA. Even without the testing capabilities of first world countries (as lol worthy as that sounds right now) we still should be hearing about deaths/illnesses in large numbers. While travel/exposure may be 1 reason why the viral infection hasnt been seen in large numbers in Africa, i think there has to be another reason. Perhaps Clyde is right and heat/sun/uv exposure is it.

[mademan]

per Japanese doctors this virus is not heat resistant and dies in higher temps, aka summer time

How hot though?

Read on Twitter

Iranian winters arent really hot tho. Pretty sure it even snows there

[Optimus_Steel]

per Japanese doctors this virus is not heat resistant and dies in higher temps, aka summer time

i thought that was debunked already?

We have cases here in Florida and its been int the 80s, so don't buy that for a second.

[dhsilv2]

My opinion is that this strand of the flu has been here in the states a lot longer than reported, but isn't quite as lethal as its made out to be. About 2 and a half months ago, I got sick, I had pretty bad chills for the first time in my life. The first day was the worst, the second day was pretty bad but a lot better, and it slowly tapered off over the next few days. This is total conjecture and I could obviously be wrong, but my guess is that this has been around for a lot longer than people realize and it's just that no one knew what it was.

1. This is NOT the flu
2. We had a bad flu season
3. This is NOT the flu
4. If this had been here longer, more people would have it, a LOT more.
5. This i NOT the flu

[Cowbulls]

Here is what is happening.

-People are panicking over a flu virus.
-people ages 15-60 are seeing all this panic and when they get flu symptoms they are scared so they go to hospital.
-people ages 60 and over and people with other urgent health issues get flu virus and they are also scared so they go to hospital.
-people ages 60 and over REALLY do need help and care but they are struggling to get in because you/media have successfully driven the fear into the young healthy person.
-people over 60 aren't getting the urgent help they need because of overcrowded hospitals

Keep it up people. You're doing great.

It's a flu virus. If you are young and healthy and get sick. DO what you ALWAYS do when you get the flu...sit at home and roll around in bed for a day or 2. Fear mongering is the reason a lot of people will die from this.

If this user keeps repeating the same thing over and over. Report it.

[dhsilv2]

per Japanese doctors this virus is not heat resistant and dies in higher temps, aka summer time

i thought that was debunked already?

We have cases here in Florida and its been int the 80s, so don't buy that for a second.

Didn't we also see this spread pretty fast in a lot of warmer climates in south Asia?

[Bandit King]

I give up no use arguing with trump fans.

User has been suspended --- multiple baiting/derailing posts

[NoDopeOnSundays]

Here is what is happening.

-People are panicking over a flu virus.
-people ages 15-60 are seeing all this panic and when they get flu symptoms they are scared so they go to hospital.
-people ages 60 and over and people with other urgent health issues get flu virus and they are also scared so they go to hospital.
-people ages 60 and over REALLY do need help and care but they are struggling to get in because you/media have successfully driven the fear into the young healthy person.
-people over 60 aren't getting the urgent help they need because of overcrowded hospitals

Keep it up people. You're doing great.

It's a flu virus. If you are young and healthy and get sick. DO what you ALWAYS do when you get the flu...sit at home and roll around in bed for a day or 2. Fear mongering is the reason a lot of people will die from this.

How is someone like this not banned? It's literally not even a flu virus, it's from a completely different class of viruses.

Sent from my Pixel 3 XL using RealGM mobile app

[Ayt]

Here is what is happening.

-People are panicking over a flu virus.
-people ages 15-60 are seeing all this panic and when they get flu symptoms they are scared so they go to hospital.
-people ages 60 and over and people with other urgent health issues get flu virus and they are also scared so they go to hospital.
-people ages 60 and over REALLY do need help and care but they are struggling to get in because you/media have successfully driven the fear into the young healthy person.
-people over 60 aren't getting the urgent help they need because of overcrowded hospitals

Keep it up people. You're doing great.

It's a flu virus. If you are young and healthy and get sick. DO what you ALWAYS do when you get the flu...sit at home and roll around in bed for a day or 2. Fear mongering is the reason a lot of people will die from this.

Stop spreading nonsense.

[Mamba Mentality]

per Japanese doctors this virus is not heat resistant and dies in higher temps, aka summer time

Provide links if you are going to post things like this.

Yehhhhh I'm not sure how much of that is true...

Even as the weather warms up in the northern hemisphere, the coronavirus may still survive for days at temperatures up to 25C (77 F), according to a study in Germany published by the Journal of Hospital Infection.

The study showed a human coronavirus could persist for five days in 21C (69.8 F) temperature on a Teflon, ceramic or steel surface. In comparison, severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS-CoV) could last on a plastic surface for more than five days between 22C and 25C (71.6-77F).

Dr Edsel Maurice Salvana, director at the Institute of Molecular Biology and Biotechnology at the University of the Philippines, told Al Jazeera that a direct correlation between warmer countries and the slower spread of the virus "is a myth".

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/03/warmer-weather-slow-spread-coronavirus-200310050819610.html

[OkcSinceSGA]

Read on Twitter

About damn time! Thanks Dirk for making this new thread.

Sent from my LM-Q710(FGN) using RealGM mobile app

[bisme37]

I don't know if people saw this from a couple days ago but a lab in Mass has a vaccine that's being tested...

Read on Twitter

[Bucksmaniac]

My opinion is that this strand of the flu has been here in the states a lot longer than reported, but isn't quite as lethal as its made out to be. About 2 and a half months ago, I got sick, I had pretty bad chills for the first time in my life. The first day was the worst, the second day was pretty bad but a lot better, and it slowly tapered off over the next few days. This is total conjecture and I could obviously be wrong, but my guess is that this has been around for a lot longer than people realize and it's just that no one knew what it was.

Makes sense based on reports of this flu season being 65% deadlier than normal. Would not be surprised one bit if the uptick is COVID-19