OT: The Official Coronavirus thread - Be well, be safe

[Clyde_Style]

One last comment about this primary

Let's just see how the debate goes this Sunday

Anyone who is willing to be open-minded can also report back what their impressions were

If Bernie does well, I'll certainly acknowledge it

I don't believe it will change the outcome much, but I think is fair play to say let's see how it goes. Crazy things do happen

[movingon]

He looked awful. Pence looked like his usual robot self.

I think Trump is going to die. He looks sick as hell. Both him and Pence were exposed and they both refused to get tested.

I'm guessing he's not going to make it to November

Just a hunch, but I think he's the very example of the kind of host this virus strikes down

[Clyde_Style]

He looked awful. Pence looked like his usual robot self.

I think Trump is going to die. He looks sick as hell. Both him and Pence were exposed and they both refused to get tested.

I'm guessing he's not going to make it to November

Just a hunch, but I think he's the very example of the kind of host this virus strikes down

Pence will live forever and when all of the other humans are gone he'll be reduced to trying to convert gay cockroaches to heterosexuals

P.S. I'm also guessing that both of them sure AF did get tested and the reason they're saying they didn't is because they're scared to reveal they tested positive

[GONYK]

I agree with you. I just don't think anyone cares about the long-term right now. Beating Trump is all that matters. Anything that does not lead directly to the maximization of that possibility is on the backburner.

While Millenials, Gen Z, Latin voters, and Independents are important their numbers haven't matched up to the black and moderate coalition. Where was Bernie's Latin and independent vote in Texas?

If you're only concerned with winning right now and have no long term strategy, more power to you. I've been a progressive since Occupy Wall Street, so my approach to politics has always been results oriented. Understand that we had no infrastructure for electoral politics for most of that span. Activism was a bigger driver of results. But with Bernie's success, the infrastructure only began to be laid and I'm not speaking figuratively. The DNC literally threatened to blacklist any consultants that helped progressives run against incumbents this election cycle. We've had to create our own parallel structures to even have a shot. So it's never been about one election for most of us in the progressive movement. That's the crux of "not me, us."

To the comment on Latin, Independent and Young voters not matching up to the black and moderate coalition; like I said, they won't overtake that coalition in numbers until the next cycle begins. In Texas though Bernie smoked Biden with Latino voters 45 to 24 and if that stands, then Bernie building an infrastructure to push Latin voters toward progressive goals could translate to a winner next election and I think Texas' chances of becoming purple hinge on those Latin voters.

There was no clear lane for Warren to run in, so she got squeezed out. Especially since Bernie is the top dog with the progressives.

This is a bit revisionist. There was a period where Bernie was being asked to drop out and back Warren. Warren briefly moved into a neck and neck run with Biden while Bernie dipped. The Squad endorsements and proof he was healthy combined with Warren's M4A details not adding up are when she started getting squeezed out. She had a shot, she released a more moderate M4A proposal and moderates left her for Pete while progressives left for Bernie.

So Bernie won Iowa and NH, which are some of the least representative states, demographically, you will find. Nevada was a solid win, but once again, it's hard to gauge a Democrat in an election without black representation.

Since Nevada, Bernie has been getting his teeth kicked in. Warren is only slightly less successful than Bernie in the big scheme of things when we look at the big picture.

So Bernie won the first three states which is something that has never happened in history. Again, black voters choosing Biden over Bernie does not mean they don't like Bernie. It's hard to gauge anyone when a single candidate can ride Obama's legacy to easy victories with black voters. Let's be clear, Biden didn't even have an infrastructure in some of these states and coasted off endorsements and legacy despite his own past being filled with decisions that had a negative impact on all people of color. From his banking bill to his crime bill to being friendly with segregationists and bragging about it.

That Warren comment is a wild reach. Warren dropped out with 71 delegates, Bernie has 725. Biden has 880. There are still around 100 unrewarded delegates from states that have already voted and the majority of those are from states that Bernie won (including California). Bernie and Warren aren't in the same stratosphere here and the reason Bernie is getting buried is because of Southern Republican voting states that he dominates (ie: Florida). But if you were to look at the states that actually matter for Democrats winning...Bernie is right there in the conversation.

I think your question is a little more complex. Pete could never endorse Bernie, because their platforms are not compatible. Pete ran as moderate. Progressives said he was basically a Republican. Plus he had the Wall St ties. There isn't space in the Bernie coalition for a Pete endorsement.

Biden ran on a platform that inherently appeals to a broader base, so he is able to credibly receive more endorsements.

This doesn't really address my point. Namely that Biden didn't kick Bernie in the teeth off of his own popularity. It took other candidates pushing their supporters toward Biden to get that edge. The endorsements played a key role in Biden winning. As a matter of fact, if Warren drops out and does the same thing at the same time, Bernie likely wins Super Tuesday and this conversation is completely different.

I agree that a vote for Biden is not a condemnation for Bernie, or at least what Bernie stands for. I would vote for Bernie. I just think it's a meaningless distinction in this election. Most voters care about one thing, and have resoundingly voiced who they believe can get it done. Being everyone's second choice in a 2 man race isn't the same as having support.

No, no, no; Bernie was the majority favorite in a 10 man race and then again in a 4 man race. It took 2 dropping out and throwing their support to Biden while the third ate away at Bernie's support for Joe Biden to become the resounding choice. This is literally what all polling said leading into this. To assume that if it were a 2 man race all along the discussion would be exactly the same is massively flawed. People wouldn't be concerned about Bernie sticking in the race if Biden's support wasn't mostly soft support that isn't ideologically based.

Honest question, do you think he will spurn progressives with his VP choice or give them an olive branch here? My money is on olive branch.

Highly doubtful, especially if he only intends to be in there for one term. He'll likely target someone to sure up a purple state win. Hillary had that opportunity too and passed as well...and I think she's an infinitely better politician strategically. I'll be happy to be proven wrong but I'm not holding my breath.

Let me be more precise. Maybe people don't actively dislike him, but outside of his base, people don't seem to actively like him either. More importantly, more people seem to actively like Biden more than Bernie.

But again, Biden doesn't become more popular than Bernie until a collective of leaders who all built their own followings send their support to Biden at the zero hour. Prior to that and for a five year span, Bernie was literally the most well liked politician in the country according to favorability measures. The lack of Warren endorsement was the backbreaker. Moderates coalesced, Warren held out to try and build more leverage which hurt both progressives.

I'm honestly and truly enjoying this discussion. I hope there is no hard feelings setting in here. I just think we can dissect this through and through, but the bottom line to me comes down to this:

1. Very few people outside of Bernie's base are prioritizing policy over beating Trump. Whether or not they like the policy is somewhat irrelevant to this.

2. Bernie claimed he would bring in new voters. This did not prove to be true. He had a plurality when there were 10 candidates, but the majority was always against him. As the field winnowed, his share didn't go up. We can talk about all the nuances to this, but once again, this is the bottom line. No matter how many people were in the race, 51%+ of the voters never said he was their choice. Like I said before, all the polling in the world is meaningless once the votes start coming in. All the people who liked him as a person or felt drawn to his policies did not put their money where their mouth was.

3. Democrats have overwhelmingly chosen to trust Biden over Bernie when it comes to the question of electability. A much broader coalition sees Biden as the more sound candidate from a strategy perspective. So for all the electability arguments Bernie put forth, and whatever the polling was, it does not seem that he convinced anyone outside of the 25-30% he cultivated in 2016.

Now, I'm not conflating this with a rejection of progressivism or a rejection of Bernie. I'm definitely saying that progressive policy and Bernie Sanders proved to be not what the majority voters wanted to counter Trump with this time around. You can say that's only because the establishment backed Biden. Fine. But the people overwhelmingly chose to trust the establishment.

I think the best way to put it is that even if people think the package of Bernie and progressive policies is a better product objectively, it's not what they were in the market for.

The quality of the product is irrelevant if people don't buy it.

[GONYK]

One last comment about this primary

Let's just see how the debate goes this Sunday

Anyone who is willing to be open-minded can also report back what their impressions were

If Bernie does well, I'll certainly acknowledge it

I don't believe it will change the outcome much, but I think is fair play to say let's see how it goes. Crazy things do happen

I'll say that I expect Bernie to wipe the floor with Biden. I just don't think it will matter.

[Stannis]

Mods could we have a political primary thread? I know political topics have been banned in the past, but considering most of us will be stuck indoors? We need something lol And considering half the talk in this thread has been political...

Maybe we can just focus on the primary (Biden & Sanders) and try not to talk about Trump?

One last comment about this primary

Let's just see how the debate goes this Sunday

Anyone who is willing to be open-minded can also report back what their impressions were

If Bernie does well, I'll certainly acknowledge it

I don't believe it will change the outcome much, but I think is fair play to say let's see how it goes. Crazy things do happen

I don't think it will change the outcomes either. Not sure how serious people will take this debate either since there's no audience and it will shadowed by the coronavirus news.

Even if Bernie by some surprise comes out swinging and tries to take down Biden, I don't think most people will want to see that during these times. They want assurance that we are going to be ok, not doomed. The opportunity to take down Biden was missed, and it wasn't entirely Bernie's fault. He never had the chance to take on Biden 1 on 1.

But he has to keep laying the stepping stones for progressives of the future. So I see him continuing to be persistent and get his message across, but I don't see him going all out on Biden.

[Capn'O]

I'm lukewarm to both remaining Dems for various reasons but I reject the idea that Biden would be Hillary Part Deux.

Specifically, I think Biden makes a stronger candidate than Hillary in the generals because of his showing in the Upper Midwest. Sanders clobbered Hillary one on one in that region and is being clobbered by Biden there. When you look at the generals... that's where Hillary lost.

With Sanders, you can make an argument that more young people vote in the general elections than primaries. That argument is true imo, but I do think both have a very good shot at the presidency. Especially with such a terrible response to the coronavirus outbreak.

[j4remi]

I covered the primary number projections in a logical, non-partisan manner so I don't know what you're talking about a particular subset of Democrats.

I'm saying objectively, by the numbers, Bernie had polled with higher favorability than any other politician for the majority of the past five years. Biden slipped past him just after taking a lead and gaining a ton of positive press but that's neither here nor there. The fact of the matter is that Bernie steadily at 70/30 favorability is only disliked by a minority of the people who vote Democrat. That doesn't mean he's their favorite, but the majority of Democrats are completely fine with him.

The majority in SC was significant because it was not a predominantly white small electorate like Iowa or NH. Bernie was never the prohibitive favorite in my mind based on the early results (where Pete actually won in Iowa). The NY Times had an actual headline after Nevada saying Is Sanders Unstoppable? It was ridiculous!

So when SC voted it was a much better gauge for people IN the race to drop out and for voters on the fence to pick their horse.

I made sure to say popular vote. Bernie got 2000 more votes than Pete in Iowa. I do think after SC people had a good chance to drop out, I have no clue why Warren didn't.

It is not a particular kind of person who backs Biden over Sanders based on the odds that is a problem at all, because this is a race about beating Trump and more people think Biden is suited for that job than Bernie and there's nothing we can do about it either way. That's the majority perception coming out of last Tuesday by a significant margin. It wasn't even close. Bernie needed to win big in California and he didn't.

This only manifested due to very specific circumstances which I've mentioned a couple times. It required Warren staying in, Pete and Amy dropping out along with a multitude of endorsements in key states for the numbers to move from Bernie winning to Biden winning on Super Tuesday. If any of those circumstances changes, the SC stuff makes zero difference and we know that because all of the polls said the same thing.

I didn't speak on particular people backing Biden over Sanders, I spoke on particular people who dislike Sanders. That's a key difference that I keep beating on. Most people that back Biden over Sanders are totally fine with Bernie and vice versa.

The media narrative flip flops all the time. They are trying to stir up clicks. They loved Trump in 2016 because it drove viewership. Most people in media don't like Trump, but they didn't think he'd win either. Their business is to create a horse race and if Bernie flipped Joe on Tuesday you can bet the media outlets will be pushing the narrative that its a tight race again. They love to do that.

This doesn't actually hold true when people study the coverage. This article is about how their victories were covered by CNN
https://inthesetimes.com/article/22354/cnn-bernie-sanders-joe-biden-media-spin-candidates-negative-mentions

And this one is further back but looks at how MSNBC treated each candidate at that point.


There was also the famous breakdown of 16 negative stories in 16 hours from the Washington Post...this has been the case a long time and one that Chomsky's Manufacturing Consent kinda primed lefties who follow him to be weary of.

But I was voting for Warren until she dropped out. Many democrats are like me. They were going to vote for her or Pete or Amy or Mike and it would have gone to the convention. But that's not happening now. I don't like this angle that somehow a boring block of moderate democrats are stifling the progressives. I'm a progressive and I'll vote for Biden over Bernie next Tuesday in Florida.

That's cool, I respect your decision. But there is a small army of data that says the second choice for most Warren supporters was Bernie Sanders right up until the point she dropped out. It is what it is.

Further, I have issues with Bernie I haven't even raised. I have grown not to trust him myself. I don't believe in him as a person or as an effective politician and I do not think he would be very good as president. That's me, a progressive, saying that, not a moderate. I'd vote for Bernie anyway if he were the nominee, but at this point I don't believe in his abilities to get anything done or even to beat Trump so I'm going with Biden.

That's cool, I know some Warren supporters who have fully flipped from liking Bernie. Some are still supporting Bernie because his agenda is absolutely the progressive option to Biden's moderate one. Others feel like you. But when I speak on people who dislike Bernie, I'm going with the data. Most people don't view Bernie with disdain, period. The electability and "doesn't get things done" arguments are subjective and would really get us off the rails. But there are two points I'm making about data...

1. A vote for Biden is not the same as expressing dislike or refusal to vote for Bernie.
2. Most democratic voters aren't put off by Bernie.

[Stannis]

I'm lukewarm to both remaining Dems for various reasons but I reject the idea that Biden would be Hillary Part Deux.

Specifically, I think Biden makes a stronger candidate than Hillary in the generals because of his showing in the Upper Midwest. Sanders clobbered Hillary one on one in that region and is being clobbered by Biden there. When you look at the generals... that's where Hillary lost.

With Sanders, you can make an argument that more young people vote in the general elections than primaries. That argument is true imo, but I do think both have a very good shot at the presidency. Especially with such a terrible response to the coronavirus outbreak.

I said this in the Current Affairs sections.

I think both Sanders and Biden have an equal chance against Trump. I will give the edge to Sanders because he's sharper on the stage.

But I'm going for Sanders because he's a high risk/high reward candidate, while Biden his high risk/low reward.

[Capn'O]

I'm lukewarm to both remaining Dems for various reasons but I reject the idea that Biden would be Hillary Part Deux.

Specifically, I think Biden makes a stronger candidate than Hillary in the generals because of his showing in the Upper Midwest. Sanders clobbered Hillary one on one in that region and is being clobbered by Biden there. When you look at the generals... that's where Hillary lost.

With Sanders, you can make an argument that more young people vote in the general elections than primaries. That argument is true imo, but I do think both have a very good shot at the presidency. Especially with such a terrible response to the coronavirus outbreak.

I said this in the Current Affairs sections.

I think both Sanders and Biden have an equal chance against Trump. I will give the edge to Sanders because he's sharper on the stage.

But I'm going for Sanders because he's a high risk/high reward candidate, while Biden his high risk/low reward.

Biden basically Knox. Sanders is Frank.

Spoiler:

Warren was RJ

There is no Mitch in this race, you heretics.

[thebuzzardman]

on a side note has anybody in the city tried to get groceries today, i'm about to hit the stores

People are literally panic-shopping and hoarding like the bubonic plague has returned. It's quite the overreaction really.

It's difficult to find even toilet paper or bread in highly populated areas.

My theory: People are using the bread as backup asswipe

[thebuzzardman]

on a side note has anybody in the city tried to get groceries today, i'm about to hit the stores

People are literally panic-shopping and hoarding like the bubonic plague has returned. It's quite the overreaction really.

It's difficult to find even toilet paper or bread in highly populated areas.

My theory: People are using the bread as backup asswipe

Think about it. Is wonder bread that much more nutritionally dense than toilet paper?

[HarthorneWingo]

Mods could we have a political primary thread? I know political topics have been banned in the past, but considering most of us will be stuck indoors? We need something lol And considering half the talk in this thread has been political...

Maybe we can just focus on the primary (Biden & Sanders) and try not to talk about Trump?

One last comment about this primary

Let's just see how the debate goes this Sunday

Anyone who is willing to be open-minded can also report back what their impressions were

If Bernie does well, I'll certainly acknowledge it

I don't believe it will change the outcome much, but I think is fair play to say let's see how it goes. Crazy things do happen

I don't think it will change the outcomes either. Not sure how serious people will take this debate either since there's no audience and it will shadowed by the coronavirus news.

Even if Bernie by some surprise comes out swinging and tries to take down Biden, I don't think most people will want to see that during these times. They want assurance that we are going to be ok, not doomed. The opportunity to take down Biden was missed, and it wasn't entirely Bernie's fault. He never had the chance to take on Biden 1 on 1.

But he has to keep laying the stepping stones for progressives of the future. So I see him continuing to be persistent and get his message across, but I don't see him going all out on Biden.

The MagnumT Memorial Knicks Forum 2020 Presidential Primary Thread.

I'm ready. We don't have any basketball to argue about. Might as well be this.

[Kampuchea]

Guess the draft lottery will be delayed due to this damn corona, only thing I’ve been looking forward to for the Knicks

[j4remi]

I'm honestly and truly enjoying this discussion. I hope there is no hard feelings setting in here. I just think we can dissect this through and through, but the bottom line to me comes down to this:

1. Very few people outside of Bernie's base are prioritizing policy over beating Trump. Whether or not they like the policy is somewhat irrelevant to this.

2. Bernie claimed he would bring in new voters. This did not prove to be true. He had a plurality when there were 10 candidates, but the majority was always against him. As the field winnowed, his share didn't go up. We can talk about all the nuances to this, but once again, this is the bottom line. No matter how many people were in the race, 51%+ of the voters never said he was their choice. Like I said before, all the polling in the world is meaningless once the votes start coming in. All the people who liked him as a person or felt drawn to his policies did not put their money where their mouth was.

3. Democrats have overwhelmingly chosen to trust Biden over Bernie when it comes to the question of electability. A much broader coalition sees Biden as the more sound candidate from a strategy perspective. So for all the electability arguments Bernie put forth, and whatever the polling was, it does not seem that he convinced anyone outside of the 25-30% he cultivated in 2016.

Now, I'm not conflating this with a rejection of progressivism or a rejection of Bernie. I'm definitely saying that progressive policy and Bernie Sanders proved to be not what the majority voters wanted to counter Trump with this time around. You can say that's only because the establishment backed Biden. Fine. But the people overwhelmingly chose to trust the establishment.

I think the best way to put it is that even if people think the package of Bernie and progressive policies is a better product objectively, it's not what they were in the market for.

The quality of the product is irrelevant if people don't buy it.

Hell nah on hard feelings, you know me fam, I'll go in on this stuff all day (I do just in other places generally0.
1. We mostly agree here. I actually would argue even Bernie's base mostly prioritizes beating Trump but thinks that Bernie is the better option for a myriad of reasons. Most of the more extreme Bernie supporters peeled off to Tulsi and Yang (not saying that's all their support, I like a lot of Yang Gang heads and rock with UBI though not his version).

2. 50/50 here. Super Tuesday saw voter surges in a number of states. Some where the race was close (Texas), some where Bernie dominated (Utah) and some where Biden dominated (Virginia). I think the surprise here is that in some places where Biden didn't even campaign, he still saw a surge of support. Why that happened? I go back to negative partisanship. I'd generally guess that those people followed the horse race coverage and went with what the story was which informs my theory that endorsements have had outsized impacts this primary season. But this whole bit is pure speculation.

3. I think you're short selling Bernie and overselling Biden a bit. Bernie hit about 48% when the field was still full. He broke 30 in plenty of Super Tuesday states including Cali and Colorado. Most of the states Biden has won, he's polled similarly in that 30-50% zone as well. Where we see the more dramatic leads are basically all Red States which is where I get a bit frustrated. Biden's getting an exaggerated bump from states he doesn't have a prayer to win in the general. So while Biden does have some blowouts, it's mostly been close races and he's built his margins in places the Dems typically pay no mind in a general.

I think the key distinction here is that Biden's "dominance" is overstated to me. Not in that he has the numbers, but in that the numbers are far less static than people have implied. Bernie and Biden are the only two candidates who had true "sticky" support to begin with but a huge chunk of the electorate was up for grabs and could still be. The rush to push him out is more narrative building but it ignores some signs...
1. A huge chunk of Biden's support came thanks to the behest of others rather than his own campaigning.
2. That the support came from a group that bounced around multiple candidates throughout this process (From Harris to Warren to Pete to Biden).
3. That Biden when he has been prone to missteps when he does campaign (From lying about being arrested fighting for Mandela throughout February to cursing out that Union member and telling multiple others to go vote for someone else).

Put it this way: Biden has a comfortable lead the same way teams get a comfortable lead in the modern NBA, you're always a couple of three pointers away from watching the lead evaporate fast. The key now for him is to cling to the narrative and not make any mistakes, that's why we've barely seen him outside of one prepared speech. I don't trust that kind of strategy holding up in a general when people pay more attention and if they tune in any time soon than Bernie can make a come back. The South is a killer though, that Southern Wall is real.

[HarthorneWingo]

I'm lukewarm to both remaining Dems for various reasons but I reject the idea that Biden would be Hillary Part Deux.

Specifically, I think Biden makes a stronger candidate than Hillary in the generals because of his showing in the Upper Midwest. Sanders clobbered Hillary one on one in that region and is being clobbered by Biden there. When you look at the generals... that's where Hillary lost.

With Sanders, you can make an argument that more young people vote in the general elections than primaries. That argument is true imo, but I do think both have a very good shot at the presidency. Especially with such a terrible response to the coronavirus outbreak.

I said this in the Current Affairs sections.

I think both Sanders and Biden have an equal chance against Trump. I will give the edge to Sanders because he's sharper on the stage.

But I'm going for Sanders because he's a high risk/high reward candidate, while Biden his high risk/low reward.

Bernie's not only sharper on stage but he's also more problematic for Trump to run against as a populist. It'll be much easier to attack Biden on his policies like his vote for Iraq war, prior legislation, willingness to cut medicare and social security. The videos are already all over YouTube. I'm sure the GOP will have campaign videos tying Biden to Hillary Clinton which will be plastered all over the media. Beating Biden in the general election will be like shooting fish in barrel.

This is just for starters







But I like this one the best.

[nedleeds]

I think Trump is going to die. He looks sick as hell. Both him and Pence were exposed and they both refused to get tested.

I'm guessing he's not going to make it to November

Just a hunch, but I think he's the very example of the kind of host this virus strikes down

Maybe they all die, Bernie looks like a mummy, Biden looks like a derelict at the end of a Panama City bar who is still trying to snag 30 year olds and Trump looks like shoe leather given life and a funny wig. At least then I could vote for Tulsi Gabbard or somebody sane and not a complete communist who will obliterate any incentive to create a small business.

[j4remi]

Biden basically Knox. Sanders is Frank.

Spoiler:

Warren was RJ

There is no Mitch in this race, you heretics.

Warren is the Warriors when Mark Jackson coached them. Shoulda done way better, but used strategies that didn't play to her strengths. She's so much better than her results suggest and I have no idea why she treated Biden with kid gloves. She got in this game over beefing with the guy.

[HarthorneWingo]

Biden basically Knox. Sanders is Frank.

Spoiler:

Warren was RJ

There is no Mitch in this race, you heretics.

Warren is the Warriors when Mark Jackson coached them. Shoulda done way better, but used strategies that didn't play to her strengths. She's so much better than her results suggest and I have no idea why she treated Biden with kid gloves. She got in this game over beefing with the guy.

I really wanted Warren to run in '16 but now I've really soured on her a lot since she decided not to run and then didn't endorse Bernie when his agenda was so similar to hers. Notwithstanding that, she had lots of support in the beginning of her campaign. At that time, I wasn't even sure if I'd vote for Warren or Sanders. But then she backed off (flip-flopped?) on M4A. Then - completely out of the blue in what had to be a scheme devised by the new (Clinton campaign) staffers who joined the Warren campaign - she says that "my dear friend for the past 30 years, Bernie Sanders, is a sexist and doesn't think a woman can beat Donald Trump." Bernie Sanders? No one believed that then or believes that now. And that's when her numbers tanked. If Warren doesn't get a job in a Biden administration, she's done politically.

[Iron Mantis]

on a side note has anybody in the city tried to get groceries today, i'm about to hit the stores

People are literally panic-shopping and hoarding like the bubonic plague has returned. It's quite the overreaction really.

It's difficult to find even toilet paper or bread in highly populated areas.

My theory: People are using the bread as backup asswipe