Coronavirus

[dougthonus]

that's obviously false, or the states would not maintain those rates

It's obviously true that some people do this. The only question is how many. Given that you want to increase the wealth actual tax rate by 150% of what most are paying now, it's pretty obvious to me that the most wealthy people will go to pretty extreme length to save millions of dollars per year in tax payments.

[dice]

which would not happen, and i think you know that. rich people across the globe live in nations with high tax rates. and yet there are many nations with very low tax rates they could move to. they don't. moreover, there simply isn't much evidence that, up to a certain point, higher tax rates have much impact on economic activity on a national level. not in the US (we've had plenty of instances of tax rates being significantly adjusted) and not worldwide. and 50% is not that level

plenty of nations that have both higher incomes and MUCH higher taxes than the USA

Rich people in this nation have manipulated the laws to get out of taxes forever and do not actually pay high tax rates, and if you offer to move their real tax rate from 18-20% to 50%, I actually absolutely believe that it would happen with the wealthiest people.

when you add income tax, sales tax, property tax, capital gains tax, etc. together, the top 1% are paying way more than what you're suggesting. the effective federal income tax alone (based on actual tax returns) paid by the top 1% was about 27% at the end of the obama admin. (probably more like 25% now):

https://www.taxpolicycenter.org/taxvox/effective-income-tax-rates-have-fallen-top-one-percent-world-war-ii

i have no illusions that my specific idea would ever be implemented, by the way. and it's complicated by myriad state tax laws. but i do think it's inevitable that there will be some form of UBI eventually. it's just unlikely to be in our lifetimes

[dougthonus]

i have no illusions that my specific idea would ever be implemented, by the way. and it's complicated by myriad state tax laws. but i do think it's inevitable that there will be some form of UBI eventually. it's just unlikely to be in our lifetimes

It depends a little bit about how the AI revolution goes, but it is possible where we are on the cusp of a civilization where work becomes optional for most people and the fundamental ways in which we distribute things is forever changed. I wouldn't be surprised if that happens in my life time at all.

Either way, "work" is going to become less and less valuable in the future most likely. There will be fewer jobs and the ones that do exist will pay less and less. This will force us into re-evaluating distribution of wealth.

[dice]

i have no illusions that my specific idea would ever be implemented, by the way. and it's complicated by myriad state tax laws. but i do think it's inevitable that there will be some form of UBI eventually. it's just unlikely to be in our lifetimes

It depends a little bit about how the AI revolution goes, but it is possible where we are on the cusp of a civilization where work becomes optional for most people and the fundamental ways in which we distribute things is forever changed. I wouldn't be surprised if that happens in my life time at all.

Either way, "work" is going to become less and less valuable in the future most likely. There will be fewer jobs and the ones that do exist will pay less and less. This will force us into re-evaluating distribution of wealth.

true. they've been talking about machines sending large portions of the workforce home for generations though

[dougthonus]

true. they've been talking about machines sending large portions of the workforce home for generations though

I'm not sure how much you've read up on AI, there are three basic types:

Narrow AI - All current AI falls into this category. AI can do one thing well or it can do general things really poorly. Because it can do narrow things well, it can be built to do some human jobs, but most human jobs require enough lateral thinking that it isn't great at taking over jobs but rather simplifying tasks which makes jobs easier (and thus eliminates some jobs)

General AI - More or less smart as a human. If we get to this point (and some would argue we are there now if you have enough hardware), you now have the equivalent to the person you would hire except that they work 24/7 and cost you almost nothing. It won't take over immediately because form factor and other things will play a role, and hardware to run may initially be too expensive high, but if we achieve this level of AI then when it becomes cheap enough, a huge segment of the job market is just gone.

Super Intelligence AI - When an AI becomes smarter than a human and can improve itself at an exponential rate. If we achieve this, then human life will be forever altered as we know it. The super AI will probably have the ability to wipe all of humanity out and may choose to do so. It may also figure out the perfect solution to best balance happiness or help us expand across the universe, but at this point, we will no longer be in control, the super intelligent AI will be, and we'll effectively be zoo animals to it.

[dice]

true. they've been talking about machines sending large portions of the workforce home for generations though

I'm not sure how much you've read up on AI, there are three basic types:

Narrow AI - All current AI falls into this category. AI can do one thing well or it can do general things really poorly. Because it can do narrow things well, it can be built to do some human jobs, but most human jobs require enough lateral thinking that it isn't great at taking over jobs but rather simplifying tasks which makes jobs easier (and thus eliminates some jobs)

General AI - More or less smart as a human. If we get to this point (and some would argue we are there now if you have enough hardware), you now have the equivalent to the person you would hire except that they work 24/7 and cost you almost nothing. It won't take over immediately because form factor and other things will play a role, and hardware to run may initially be too expensive high, but if we achieve this level of AI then when it becomes cheap enough, a huge segment of the job market is just gone.

Super Intelligence AI - When an AI becomes smarter than a human and can improve itself at an exponential rate. If we achieve this, then human life will be forever altered as we know it. The super AI will probably have the ability to wipe all of humanity out and may choose to do so. It may also figure out the perfect solution to best balance happiness or help us expand across the universe, but at this point, we will no longer be in control, the super intelligent AI will be, and we'll effectively be zoo animals to it.

we'll make great pets

Watch on YouTube

[2018C3]

In the near future, I see AI taking over all fast food, and delivery services. (I'm sure there are others as well)

Once automated cars become common, all taxi's, delivery, and Uber services will be gone. People will be able to purchase a smart car, and put it to work in the downtime it is not being used.

[League Circles]

We have a society where, once you pass a certain threshold of wealth, you can put your life on auto pilot. Just buy tons of treasury bonds and have your state of legal residence be FK, TX or AZ, and you're set in perpetuity. I think that's what so many people are unaware of. We borrow the assets of these people to fund our excessive government and wonder why they keep getting richer.

Why AZ?

I was under the impression Arizona was also a zero income tax state. No?

[AKfanatic]

Read on Twitter

[Habs72]

Read on Twitter

“we have 15 cases. It’ll be down to zero soon.”

[dice]

that's obviously false, or the states would not maintain those rates

It's obviously true that some people do this.

of course

The only question is how many.

billionaires per million residents along w/ top tax bracket (both 2016):

15.0  Wyoming 0
5.8  New York 8.8
4.7  Connecticut 7
4.1  California 13.3
3.6  Montana 6.9
2.6  Massachusetts 5.1
2.6  Nevada 0
2.5  Texas 0
2.4  Florida 0
1.7  Colorado 4.6
1.7  Washington 0
1.7  Arkansas 6.9
1.7  Idaho 7.4
1.6  Wisconsin 7.65
1.5  Tennessee 6
1.4  District of Columbia 8.95
1.4  Illinois 3.75
1.3  Maryland 5.75
1.3  Oklahoma 5
1.2  Arizona 4.5
1.2  Georgia (U.S. state) 6
1.2  Michigan 4.25
1.1  South Dakota 0
1.1  Nebraska 6.8
1.0  Mississippi 5
1.0  Missouri 6
0.9  Rhode Island 6
0.9  New Jersey 9
0.9  Minnesota 9.85
0.8  Pennsylvania 3.1
0.8  Maine 7.15
0.7  New Hampshire 5
0.7  Hawaii 8.25
0.7  Kansas 4.6
0.6  Indiana 3.3
0.6  Virginia 5.75
0.6  West Virginia 6.5
0.5  Ohio 5
0.5  Oregon 9.9
0.3  Iowa 9
0.3  Utah 5
0.3  North Carolina 5.75
0.2  Kentucky 6
0.2  Louisiana 6
0.2  South Carolina 7
0.0  Alaska 0
0.0  Vermont 8.95
0.0  North Dakota 2.9
0.0  New Mexico 4.9
0.0  Alabama 5
0.0  Delaware 6.6

no meaningful correlation between billionaires in residence and state tax rate

the real question is why there are 9 billionaires living in wyoming

[dumbell78]

Need some good shows to binge on while were bunkered down. I just finished all 4 seasons of Gomorrah and it was fantastic.

[dice]

Need some good shows to binge on while were bunkered down. I just finished all 4 seasons of Gomorrah and it was fantastic.

well...i assume you've seen 'the wire', which would be my drama choice. for comedy, perhaps you haven't seen the larry sanders show (probably my 2nd favorite after seinfeld) or freaks and geeks (criminally cancelled after 1 season, kickstarted loads of careers). all american shows...hmmm...not sure if i should feel bad about that

[johnnyvann840]

We have a society where, once you pass a certain threshold of wealth, you can put your life on auto pilot. Just buy tons of treasury bonds and have your state of legal residence be FK, TX or AZ, and you're set in perpetuity. I think that's what so many people are unaware of. We borrow the assets of these people to fund our excessive government and wonder why they keep getting richer.

Why AZ?

I was under the impression Arizona was also a zero income tax state. No?

Nope. AZ has state income tax. Nevada doesn't.

[centercity]

Came to read about the virus, but all I got was AI

I'm not sure how much you've read up on AI, there are three basic types:

...

General AI - More or less smart as a human. If we get to this point (and some would argue we are there now if you have enough hardware), you now have the equivalent to the person you would hire except that they work 24/7 and cost you almost nothing. It won't take over immediately because form factor and other things will play a role, and hardware to run may initially be too expensive high, but if we achieve this level of AI then when it becomes cheap enough, a huge segment of the job market is just gone.

...

We are so far from this General AI IMO; it may never be achievable. All AI is good at now is pattern recognition as far as I can tell. It can’t do “creative” things autonomously — not even close:

- Write a good book
- design and write complex software
- Prove a (non-trivial) math hypothesis
- Do general problem solving outside a single fixed domain
...

Even for pattern recognition endeavors (like fully autonomous self driving cars at scale) we might be decades away.

[PaKii94]

Came to read about the virus, but all I got was AI

I'm not sure how much you've read up on AI, there are three basic types:

...

General AI - More or less smart as a human. If we get to this point (and some would argue we are there now if you have enough hardware), you now have the equivalent to the person you would hire except that they work 24/7 and cost you almost nothing. It won't take over immediately because form factor and other things will play a role, and hardware to run may initially be too expensive high, but if we achieve this level of AI then when it becomes cheap enough, a huge segment of the job market is just gone.

...

We are so far from this General AI IMO; it may never be achievable. All AI is good at now is pattern recognition as far as I can tell. It can’t do “creative” things autonomously — not even close:

- Write a good book
- design and write complex software
- Prove a (non-trivial) math hypothesis
- Do general problem solving outside a single fixed domain
...

Even for pattern recognition endeavors (like fully autonomous self driving cars at scale) we might be decades away.

Here's an interesting read if you guys haven't seen this before. It will probably be sooner than you think:

https://waitbutwhy.com/2015/01/artificial-intelligence-revolution-1.html

[dumbell78]

Need some good shows to binge on while were bunkered down. I just finished all 4 seasons of Gomorrah and it was fantastic.

well...i assume you've seen 'the wire', which would be my drama choice. for comedy, perhaps you haven't seen the larry sanders show (probably my 2nd favorite after seinfeld) or freaks and geeks (criminally cancelled after 1 season, kickstarted loads of careers). all american shows...hmmm...not sure if i should feel bad about that

Yup love Wire, watched it over and over.

Larry Sanders show is funny too, seen them.

Will check out Freaks and Geeks, thx.

[SimonFish]

[bulls_troy]

My 2 boys basketball season has just been completely cancelled, before it even started, and we just started with a new club.

[SimonFish]

Censored Contagion: How Information on the Coronavirus is Managed on Chinese Social Media

Key Findings
- YY, a live-streaming platform in China, began to censor keywords related to the coronavirus outbreak on December 31, 2019, a day after doctors (including the late Dr. Li Wenliang) tried to warn the public about the then unknown virus.
- WeChat broadly censored coronavirus-related content (including critical and neutral information) and expanded the scope of censorship in February 2020. Censored content included criticism of government, rumours and speculative information on the epidemic, references to Dr. Li Wenliang, and neutral references to Chinese government efforts on handling the outbreak that had been reported on state media.
- Many of the censorship rules are broad and effectively block messages that include names for the virus or sources for information about it. Such rules may restrict vital communication related to disease information and prevention.

More at link:
https://citizenlab.ca/2020/03/censored-contagion-how-information-on-the-coronavirus-is-managed-on-chinese-social-media/