Semi-OT: Coronavirus (COVID-19) Discussion Thread III (Info. Post 1)

[NoDopeOnSundays]

If they managed to keep deaths below 10,000, how on earth could America ever get to 1 million+ deaths as some were predicting? That seems incredibly unlikely.

Because China acted as one, we currently have 50 states acting as their own countries with no real direction from uptop. China also can mass produce everything they need, they didn't have a shortage of masks, ventilators or doctors/nurses. They built "hospitals" in 10 days and lockdown a massive region.

[slamilcarBarca]

anyone else get legit anxiety over this?

i'm about to attempt a target run and my body has that feeling like i just buckled my helmet and the ref has placed the ball on the tee for the opening kickoff.

[Saints14]

Update on USA mortality rate.

Read on Twitter

Latest data from this site:
https://covidtracking.com/data/

160 deaths
11,723 cases
1.36% mortality rate


With more testing, the rate should come down. Dr Birx said that the global data is currently pointing towards a 0.7% mortality rate.

However, if the USA health system becomes overrun (like in NY), then expect the mortality rate to go back up.

Hope you're right. Although it is important to keep in mind that death can be lagged 3 weeks after infection, so that percentage is misleading. But on the other hand there's countless more who had it and went untested.

[OkcSinceSGA]

anyone else get legit anxiety over this?

i'm about to attempt a target run and my body has that feeling like i just buckled my helmet and the ref has placed the ball on the tee for the opening kickoff.

I've been having a lot more trouble sleeping at night. Last night had to take 75 MG Hydroxyzine to tranq myself (antihistamine).

[Dirk]

When tests ramp up, this is how it will looks

[LKN]

Update on USA mortality rate.

Read on Twitter

Latest data from this site:
https://covidtracking.com/data/

160 deaths
11,723 cases
1.36% mortality rate


With more testing, the rate should come down. Dr Birx said that the global data is currently pointing towards a 0.7% mortality rate.

However, if the USA health system becomes overrun (like in NY), then expect the mortality rate to go back up.

That site is behind. Current numbers are:

13,475 and 187 deaths - 1.39% fatality rate.

I do think that with modern medical care the case fatality rate likely converges to less than 1%. However.... also remember that as I've said before, the death rate heavily lags the infection rate (at least 1-2 weeks) and we are almost certainly going to overwhelm the medical system in at least some areas (NYC already has some hospitals out of ICU beds/ventilators).

I think we are in for a very rough 4-8 weeks. I am very, very worried about about NYC in particular.

[Ambrose]

anyone else get legit anxiety over this?

i'm about to attempt a target run and my body has that feeling like i just buckled my helmet and the ref has placed the ball on the tee for the opening kickoff.

No. We'll be fine. You'll be fine. Take precautionary measures seriously and keep your head up. You'll be good. Stressing yourself out will only make things worse.

[Doug_12]

https://www.dailywire.com/news/stanford-professor-data-indicates-were-overreacting-to-coronavirus

Not saying this is right, but an expert in his field with a different view point. Long read, so most wont and say it’s garbage


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His argument is that the mortality rate is actually much lower than the assumptions we're operating with right now. But even if that very low mortality rate is true, it's still overwhelming health care systems as we speak. So aren't the measures that are being taken around the world fair? He's calling these measures drastic, but it's been proven that it can overwhelm health care systems. I guess I don't see how he can conclude that we're doing too much - just look at what's going on.

The most important thing he says that it's time to sample the community randomly to get an unbiased view of how infected the popilation is and what's the true fatality and "serious" rate of this.

I don't think what the world does now is an overreaction, or that this virus' death rate is around 0.1% - mostly because two things:
1;The 7 day time lagged mortality rate in Korea is like 1.1%
2;The daily number of deaths in Italy is like 60 times what the flu causes (and increasing daily). So either they have 60 times more infected people than in case of a flu (in a given period) or it's just simply more lethal. As according to this article (https://www.2oceansvibe.com/2020/03/11/how-many-people-die-annually-from-flu-in-italy/) in a usual October-Jan period there were like 2 million flu infections, they should have 30 million* infected people in Italy (in the last 30 days) to say the new coronavirus is similarly lethal.

But we need to know more in order to prepare the best strategy for mitigation.

*It's like 2 million / 4 = 500k flu cases a month. If 500k flu cases in a month produce 8 deaths in a day, then 30 million covid cases produce 475 deaths in a day...

[flavio_93]

Lol these mortality rates are so inaccurate. The mortality rate is of confirmed cases and most of them hospitalized patients. There is way way way more infected that aren’t dying. People acting like this is the Spanish flu or bird flu. It’s just a more contagious regular flu with no vaccine


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[lakerz12]

https://www.dailywire.com/news/stanford-professor-data-indicates-were-overreacting-to-coronavirus

Not saying this is right, but an expert in his field with a different view point. Long read, so most wont and say it’s garbage


Sent from my iPhone using RealGM Forums

His argument is that the mortality rate is actually much lower than the assumptions we're operating with right now. But even if that very low mortality rate is true, it's still overwhelming health care systems as we speak. So aren't the measures that are being taken around the world fair? He's calling these measures drastic, but it's been proven that it can overwhelm health care systems. I guess I don't see how he can conclude that we're doing too much - just look at what's going on.

Well for example, from the article:

"In the absence of data, prepare-for-the-worst reasoning leads to extreme measures of social distancing and lockdowns. Unfortunately, we do not know if these measures work. School closures, for example, may reduce transmission rates. But they may also backfire if children socialize anyhow, if school closure leads children to spend more time with susceptible elderly family members, if children at home disrupt their parents ability to work, and more. School closures may also diminish the chances of developing herd immunity in an age group that is spared serious disease."

So in that case he's arguing that what's being done may be incorrect and could backfire.

Your post focused just on the health care system, but that's not nearly all that's at play here.

He could be talking about the "experts" that predicted 1 million+ U.S. deaths, the media constantly emphasizing worst-case scenarios, and the subsequent mass hysteria that has people fighting over food, hoarding toilet paper, and acting like it's the apocalypse.

[LKN]

anyone else get legit anxiety over this?

i'm about to attempt a target run and my body has that feeling like i just buckled my helmet and the ref has placed the ball on the tee for the opening kickoff.

No. We'll be fine. You'll be fine. Take precautionary measures seriously and keep your head up. You'll be good.

Definitely the right attitude. Just be as careful as possible. If you don't feel like you are over-reacting you are probably under-reacting!

[madmaxmedia]

A lot of data is going to be fluid, from confirmed cases to spread rate to mortality rates, etc. If everyone who was infected and began exhibiting symptoms received prompt medical attention, based on all the info I am pretty certain the mortality rate would be below 1%.

OTOH, we also know if the virus spreads sufficiently, enough people will end up with serious symptoms that we won't be able to take care of all of them, and mortality rate will be much higher.

[LKN]

Lol these mortality rates are so inaccurate. The mortality rate is of confirmed cases and most of them hospitalized patients. There is way way way more infected that aren’t dying. People acting like this is the Spanish flu or bird flu. It’s just a more contagious regular flu with no vaccine


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I'm about to blow your mind.

It's not even the flu at all.

Also... COVID-19 is actually causing the overall Italian death rate to increase by over 20%. That is absolutely nuts.

[HotRocks34]

I think we are in for a very rough 4-8 weeks. I am very, very worried about about NYC in particular.

Everyone needs to help NYC as much as they can. It's going to be a real battle there, I agree.

[chrismikayla]

I can't do keto but I can do low carb around 100 grams. I get it all from fruits and a little basmati rice sometimes.

[Dirk]

Tests in the US, updated
https://covidtracking.com/data/

Our 4pm update is locked in. The US has now tested at least 103,945 people, up 27,450 from yesterday's total.

[LKN]

OMG - and I'm sure this guys wasn't the only infected person at Disney World

https://kmox.radio.com/articles/radiocom/34-year-old-man-dies-from-coronavirus?fbclid=IwAR3Jd3WlVSiQiWhU1vx0qvG3Shd8Ei3lDCf0VtgdXeSNFmNiDxRXtp_cA9U

[lakerz12]

anyone else get legit anxiety over this?

i'm about to attempt a target run and my body has that feeling like i just buckled my helmet and the ref has placed the ball on the tee for the opening kickoff.

No, not at all. Just don't get too close to anyone and wash your hands and you'll be fine.

This might sound silly or arrogant to some but it's the truth: I personally don't fear death. I know this isn't a popular belief around here but I actually believe in God and know where I'm going. So my anxiety or fear has not risen this entire time.

Not to mention that if you are relatively young and healthy, your odds of fighting off the virus are very high, even if you got it.

The only thing I worry about, if anything, is getting it and then passing it to someone else.

But what's going to be, will be. Just be smart and cautious and that's all you can do.

[rapstarter]

Read on Twitter

[EAS Law]

Update on USA mortality rate.

Read on Twitter

Latest data from this site:
https://covidtracking.com/data/

160 deaths
11,723 cases
1.36% mortality rate


With more testing, the rate should come down. Dr Birx said that the global data is currently pointing towards a 0.7% mortality rate.

However, if the USA health system becomes overrun (like in NY), then expect the mortality rate to go back up.

Hope you're right. Although it is important to keep in mind that death can be lagged 3 weeks after infection, so that percentage is misleading. But on the other hand there's countless more who had it and went untested.

Think about this—if it was true that we couldn’t test then the number of REPORTED infected was hidden or underreported. Now that we can test, you’ll see the cases are widespread and the deaths are what we knew them to be so the mortality rate will likely continue to drop when you do the math. As more and more cases are confirmed, the deaths are outpaced by confirmed cases more and more so the percentages drop.