Semi-OT: Coronavirus (COVID-19) Discussion Thread III (Info. Post 1)

[basketballRob]

Again, what information did they receive? Simply buying and selling stocks based on the publicly known information is not a crime. Everyone is jumping way too far ahead on an extremely limited amount of information.

But he came out and publicly said that America was in fact extremely well prepared to take on the virus. When he found out the opposite, he sold everything and didnt say anything to rebuke his earlier statement.

I'm not sure if its a crime, but its ridiculously unethical, and the people's ire is 100% warranted.

CNN is reporting that he did not receive any briefing on the coronavirus in the week leading up to his sale. Are you saying their information is inaccurate? Or are you jumping ahead on this story without having all the information?

Post links

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[therealbig3]

Just a reminder that last year's flu season in the U.S. had 35.5 million infections, 16.5 million medical visits, 490,600 patients hospitalized, and 34,200 deaths. It was considered an average or slightly below-average flu season.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2018-2019.html

Okay, carry on.

Really can't believe people are still trying to compare the flu and coronavirus.

The flu kills 0.1% of the people it infects. Coronavirus kills 3% of the people it infects. The flu also doesn't overrun hospital resources the way coronavirus has, which is why we have a national shortage of mechanical ventilators right now.

Coronavirus is on a completely different level. We don't want it infecting as many people as the flu does, because it will kill way more people than the flu does, which is why everyone is trying to prevent that from happening.

Also, when hospitals are overrun with coronavirus, to the point where they don't have any more mechanical ventilators...not only are people with coronavirus who could potentially be saved but will end up dying because there just isn't enough resources to care for them...other sick patients will die too. Coronavirus patients aren't the only ones that require critical care, or mechanical ventilators. But they won't be able to be cared for either.

The modern flu never caused anything like this.

[Dollop]

Just a reminder that last year's flu season in the U.S. had 35.5 million infections, 16.5 million medical visits, 490,600 patients hospitalized, and 34,200 deaths. It was considered an average or slightly below-average flu season.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2018-2019.html

Okay, carry on.

But you forget...orange man bad and this is all his fault.

[Ainosterhaspie]

Can any of you New Yorkers tell me why your Gov hasn't done what California has done? You guys are ground 0 for this. He needs to be responsible and take the appropriate steps. It's crazy that he hasn't done it already.

Ny will be the first city to recover because they didn't wait for the federal government. They developed their own test and are testing everyone. Like what South Korea did

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Testing alone does virtually nothing to stop the spread of the disease. You have to track down who those who have tested positive were in contact with. You have to isolate those who are positive. You need to limit contacts across the entire population so that those who are postive but haven't tested yet don't spread the virus prior to being tested. SK didnt stop the spread because they tested a bunch. There was much more to it.

[therealbig3]

Just a reminder that last year's flu season in the U.S. had 35.5 million infections, 16.5 million medical visits, 490,600 patients hospitalized, and 34,200 deaths. It was considered an average or slightly below-average flu season.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2018-2019.html

Okay, carry on.

But you forget...orange man bad and this is all his fault.

He's done a terrible job in terms of preparing for and responding to the virus. Keep denying that all you want.

[bwgood77]

Just came across this while reading responses to the above tweet. I don't know if this theory means anything, but looks bad in Florida if it does. I was pretty surprised to see AZ look like that too.

Read on Twitter

[basketballRob]

Can any of you New Yorkers tell me why your Gov hasn't done what California has done? You guys are ground 0 for this. He needs to be responsible and take the appropriate steps. It's crazy that he hasn't done it already.

Ny will be the first city to recover because they didn't wait for the federal government. They developed their own test and are testing everyone. Like what South Korea did

Sent from my SM-G950U using RealGM mobile app

Testing alone does virtually nothing to stop the spread of the disease. You have to track down who those who have tested positive were in contact with. You have to isolate those who are positive. You need to limit contacts across the entire population so that those who are postive but haven't tested yet don't spread the virus prior to being tested. SK didnt stop the spread because they tested a bunch. There was much more to it.

NY is doing the best job at this. In Florida you can only get a test if you need hospitalization.

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[basketballRob]

Just came across this while reading responses to the above tweet. I don't know if this theory means anything, but looks bad in Florida if it does. I was pretty surprised to see AZ look like that too.

Read on Twitter

We have it everywhere, no one can get tested.

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[Catchall]

Just a reminder that last year's flu season in the U.S. had 35.5 million infections, 16.5 million medical visits, 490,600 patients hospitalized, and 34,200 deaths. It was considered an average or slightly below-average flu season.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2018-2019.html

Okay, carry on.

The fatality rate is much higher than the flu at 3%

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/coronavirus-vs-the-flu-its-just-like-other-viruses-and-we-should-go-about-our-normal-business-right-wrong-heres-why-2020-03-09

Yes, but it also depends how you calculate the fatality rate.

If you sample a large and diverse population, give all of them a test for Covid, and use that large number of tested individuals as your base, the mortality rate would be lower than what's being reported. In most cases, the Covid test is being given discrimiately to people who show the right combination of symptoms. The excuse for this is that our ability to administer tests is limited and we need to prioritize who we give the test to.

If we use the numbers from the 2018/19 flu season (above) and calculate the mortality rate for the common flu as the number of deaths divided only by the number of cases requiring hospitalization, we would see a mortality rate for the flu of 6.97%.

I'm not saying that Covid-19 isn't serious, and I'm not saying the common flu has the same mortality rate. However, I'm saying the national response of shutting down businesses and asking people to isolate themselves is disproportionate in many areas of the country where the infection rate is very low.

[Dollop]

Just a reminder that last year's flu season in the U.S. had 35.5 million infections, 16.5 million medical visits, 490,600 patients hospitalized, and 34,200 deaths. It was considered an average or slightly below-average flu season.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2018-2019.html

Okay, carry on.

But you forget...orange man bad and this is all his fault.

He's done a terrible job in terms of preparing for and responding to the virus. Keep denying that all you want.

Look at the worldwide numbers and past U.S. epidemics. You’d be hard pressed to find another leader who reacted as strongly, and closed borders as rapidly saving millions like the Trump admin. The response to H1N1 from Obama/Biden was exponentially worse. But keep watching CNN I guess...

[SimonFish]

[Catchall]

But you forget...orange man bad and this is all his fault.

He's done a terrible job in terms of preparing for and responding to the virus. Keep denying that all you want.

Look at the worldwide numbers and past U.S. epidemics. You’d be hard pressed to find another leader who reacted as strongly, and closed borders as rapidly saving millions like the Trump admin. The response to H1N1 from Obama/Biden was exponentially worse. But keep watching CNN I guess...

What I'm saying is that we've been under-reacting in places like Seattle and New York, where the cases are concentrated, and we've been over-reacting in dozens of states where the number of infections is clearly very low.

Of course, we should err on the side of caution to prevent the virus from spreading, but you can't continue to shut down entire states over 50 or 100 cases of Covid.

[slamilcarBarca]

Low carb works too. Good job. This isn't going to make any sense but I find it hard but simple. Really, logically, it's just giving up soda, rice, chips, pasta mostly. But once you slip up, it's easy to say screw it I messed up anyway and go off the rails completely.

gotta get rid of the dairy too, man. its evil. processed/refined sugar. any added sugar.

coconut milk is a godsend. soda is the devil in liquid form.

Interesting. See, my people are dairy people, too. I love cheese, yogurt, but don't particularly take to milk. That said, I LOVE kefir in those times when my stomach isn't feeling quite right. Crave it, and it works. Funny how people gravitate to different food sources to get what they need.[/quote]


let me clean that up a bit. i only meant that in the context of a whole 30 type diet or "cleanse". i love milk products of all kind - cow, sheep, goat - and all the products you can make from them. and i too love kefir. pour a little over nuts, cashews for me, with fresh fruit (almost any kind here; citrus doesn't work for me in this combo) and then top with a dash of cardamom . magic.

the difference is that my body works a lot better when i eliminate. lets just say dairy gives me a lot of reading time. it is easy to replace dairy in most applications. say a mustard cream sauce or a la vodka. almond milk is pretty good ( almond butter amazing) and coconut is fantastic. i never use soy though. yogurt is at least decent.

cheese is the only place it doesn't work. not at all. and i love cheese of all kinds. few exceptions - not crazy about taleggio for example. whether its piave vecchio, robiola bosina, roomano, st agur, a triple cream . . . .oh mercy there are so many. sotto cenere tartufo on a burger with a stone ground mustard. a burrata with tomatoes. there is just no end. cheese is a magical craft. i'm just dusting off a simple arugula salad with gorgonzola, blueberries and tomato right now. life just is not complete without a quality cheesemonger walking distance away from the front door.

[Catchall]

Can any of you New Yorkers tell me why your Gov hasn't done what California has done? You guys are ground 0 for this. He needs to be responsible and take the appropriate steps. It's crazy that he hasn't done it already.

Ny will be the first city to recover because they didn't wait for the federal government. They developed their own test and are testing everyone. Like what South Korea did

Sent from my SM-G950U using RealGM mobile app

Testing alone does virtually nothing to stop the spread of the disease. You have to track down who those who have tested positive were in contact with. You have to isolate those who are positive. You need to limit contacts across the entire population so that those who are postive but haven't tested yet don't spread the virus prior to being tested. SK didnt stop the spread because they tested a bunch. There was much more to it.

The problem is that people have the virus and are infectious for days or weeks without knowing it because they show no symptoms. In that case, no test can stop the spread of the virus. It can only document a portion of the spread.

The only way to prevent the spread of the virus--with or without testing people--is to shut everything down and tell people to distance themselves. That is a very bold action to take, given the economic consequences, and that's the route we've taken.

[madmaxmedia]

Just a reminder that last year's flu season in the U.S. had 35.5 million infections, 16.5 million medical visits, 490,600 patients hospitalized, and 34,200 deaths. It was considered an average or slightly below-average flu season.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2018-2019.html

Okay, carry on.

The fatality rate is much higher than the flu at 3%

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/coronavirus-vs-the-flu-its-just-like-other-viruses-and-we-should-go-about-our-normal-business-right-wrong-heres-why-2020-03-09

Yes, but it also depends how you calculate the fatality rate.

If you sample a large and diverse population, give all of them a test for Covid, and use that large number of tested individuals as your base, the mortality rate would be lower than what's being reported. In most cases, the Covid test is being given discrimiately to people who show the right combination of symptoms. The excuse for this is that our ability to administer tests is limited and we need to prioritize who we give the test to.

If we use the numbers from the 2018/19 flu season (above) and calculate the mortality rate for the common flu as the number of deaths divided only by the number of cases requiring hospitalization, we would see a mortality rate for the flu of 6.97%.

I'm not saying that Covid-19 isn't serious, and I'm not saying the common flu has the same mortality rate. However, I'm saying the national response of shutting down businesses and asking people to isolate themselves is disproportionate in many areas of the country where the infection rate is very low.

Some of my thoughts:
1. I agree that if we knew the number of actual cases (as opposed to confirmed), the mortality rate would be significantly lower.

2. The mortality rate I mention in #1 assumes that all seriously sick patients are able to get proper medical care. The problem in Italy is that there are far too many seriously sick patients, so the mortality rate is alarmingly high there right now.

3. Being cautious is good, being overcautious is not necessarily bad but of course restricts economic and social activity, being careless is the worst case scenario (where we end up with an overloaded medical system and high mortality rate.)

4. Much of the confirmed cases now seem to be concentrated in a few hotspots, but we don't know the rate of spread to other regions. We just don't have enough data and it's too early yet. It's possible that a strict quarantine in only certain areas with smart but less stringent controls in most of the country is sufficient, but we just don't know.

5. So much is still unknown due to lack of knowledge and lack of testing in this country. Testing alone doesn't solve the problem, but it gives us more data to make the best, safest, smartest strategy possible.

Right now the number of confirmed cases is skyrocketing, because testing is finally increasing. It doesn't mean that spread rate is super high (it may be, but we don't know because of lack of data), but it does mean there are probably a lot more cases we are going to confirm over the next few days and weeks.

[Sedale Threatt]

Can any of you New Yorkers tell me why your Gov hasn't done what California has done? You guys are ground 0 for this. He needs to be responsible and take the appropriate steps. It's crazy that he hasn't done it already.

Ny will be the first city to recover because they didn't wait for the federal government. They developed their own test and are testing everyone. Like what South Korea did

Sent from my SM-G950U using RealGM mobile app

Testing alone does virtually nothing to stop the spread of the disease. You have to track down who those who have tested positive were in contact with. You have to isolate those who are positive. You need to limit contacts across the entire population so that those who are postive but haven't tested yet don't spread the virus prior to being tested. SK didnt stop the spread because they tested a bunch. There was much more to it.

That sucks, because we almost certainly aren't doing any of that stuff either.

[parapooper]

But you forget...orange man bad and this is all his fault.

He's done a terrible job in terms of preparing for and responding to the virus. Keep denying that all you want.

Look at the worldwide numbers and past U.S. epidemics. You’d be hard pressed to find another leader who reacted as strongly, and closed borders as rapidly saving millions like the Trump admin. The response to H1N1 from Obama/Biden was exponentially worse. But keep watching CNN I guess...

https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-news/trump-coronavirus-timeline-dismissed-969381/

March 4th: In an interview with Sean Hannity, Trump calls the WHO’s estimate of the global death rate “false,” describes the coronavirus as “very mild,” and suggests that those infected can get better by “sitting around” and “going to work.”

March 7th: “No, I’m not concerned at all,” Trump said from Mar-a-Lago. “No, I’m not. No, we’ve done a great job.”

March 9th: Trump bashes Democrats for sounding the alarm “far beyond what the facts would warrant” before implying that the common flu is far worse

[basketballRob]

Just a reminder that last year's flu season in the U.S. had 35.5 million infections, 16.5 million medical visits, 490,600 patients hospitalized, and 34,200 deaths. It was considered an average or slightly below-average flu season.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2018-2019.html

Okay, carry on.

The fatality rate is much higher than the flu at 3%

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/coronavirus-vs-the-flu-its-just-like-other-viruses-and-we-should-go-about-our-normal-business-right-wrong-heres-why-2020-03-09

Yes, but it also depends how you calculate the fatality rate.

If you sample a large and diverse population, give all of them a test for Covid, and use that large number of tested individuals as your base, the mortality rate would be lower than what's being reported. In most cases, the Covid test is being given discrimiately to people who show the right combination of symptoms. The excuse for this is that our ability to administer tests is limited and we need to prioritize who we give the test to.

If we use the numbers from the 2018/19 flu season (above) and calculate the mortality rate for the common flu as the number of deaths divided only by the number of cases requiring hospitalization, we would see a mortality rate for the flu of 6.97%.

I'm not saying that Covid-19 isn't serious, and I'm not saying the common flu has the same mortality rate. However, I'm saying the national response of shutting down businesses and asking people to isolate themselves is disproportionate in many areas of the country where the infection rate is very low.

If we did nothing models say that 2.2 million americans will die, more than all the wars.

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[Catchall]

The fatality rate is much higher than the flu at 3%

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/coronavirus-vs-the-flu-its-just-like-other-viruses-and-we-should-go-about-our-normal-business-right-wrong-heres-why-2020-03-09

Yes, but it also depends how you calculate the fatality rate.

If you sample a large and diverse population, give all of them a test for Covid, and use that large number of tested individuals as your base, the mortality rate would be lower than what's being reported. In most cases, the Covid test is being given discrimiately to people who show the right combination of symptoms. The excuse for this is that our ability to administer tests is limited and we need to prioritize who we give the test to.

If we use the numbers from the 2018/19 flu season (above) and calculate the mortality rate for the common flu as the number of deaths divided only by the number of cases requiring hospitalization, we would see a mortality rate for the flu of 6.97%.

I'm not saying that Covid-19 isn't serious, and I'm not saying the common flu has the same mortality rate. However, I'm saying the national response of shutting down businesses and asking people to isolate themselves is disproportionate in many areas of the country where the infection rate is very low.

Some of my thoughts:
1. I agree that if we knew the number of actual cases (as opposed to confirmed), the mortality rate would be significantly lower.

2. The mortality rate I mention in #1 assumes that all seriously sick patients are able to get proper medical care. The problem in Italy is that there are far too many seriously sick patients, so the mortality rate is alarmingly high there right now.

3. Being cautious is good, being overcautious is not necessarily bad but of course restricts economic and social activity, being careless is the worst case scenario (where we end up with an overloaded medical system and high mortality rate.)

4. So much is still unknown due to lack of knowledge and lack of testing in this country. Testing alone doesn't solve the problem, but it gives us more data to make the best, safest, smartest strategy possible.

Right now the number of confirmed cases is skyrocketing, because testing is finally increasing. It doesn't mean that spread rate is super high (it may be, but we don't know because of lack of data), but it does mean there are probably a lot more cases we are going to confirm over the next few days and weeks.

The number of confirmed cases in New York is skyrocketing. New York is an absolute nightmare for a pandemic. Nevermind how people depend on using taxi cabs, subways and elevators. The large apartment complexes with central air are tantamount to the Princess cruise ships.

However, the number of confirmed cases in 30-35 other states are not skyrocketing. Not even close.

I agree that it's best to err on the side of caution, and we absolutely need more time to gather data. However, assuming the data doesn't change dramatically, the economic cost of isolating people en masse is going to vastly outweigh the benefit in most states. And by that, I'm referring to the human suffering and death it causes.

[madmaxmedia]

Just came across this while reading responses to the above tweet. I don't know if this theory means anything, but looks bad in Florida if it does. I was pretty surprised to see AZ look like that too.

Read on Twitter

This is fascinating, it's been a long time since I've heard of a 'smart' device/appliance/thing that actually provided significant value over the old, dumb version.

It would be wonderful if we could send one of these thermometers to every household in America. At the very least, it would identify potential hot spots that could then be given early investigation/attention which could help slow or stop new outbreaks.