Semi-OT: Coronavirus (COVID-19) Discussion Thread IV (Must read Post 1)

[Dirk]

You have been reported a few times for posting something to the extent of "NY is testing like South Korea now" the last couple of days.

Richfield is now alerting about your post. Let's be basic here:

--- don't make projections unless you verify it and explain it

Drop the link to the source that leads you write that NY will have X times more than some other place.

The direct comparison between the US and Italy is at this point now misguided given the difference in population. So now we have to start accounting for that, otherwise we'll be needlessly seeding misguided views on the situation.

Make sure you add something of value and somewhat fresh to the topic. For instance, on the link you posted:

Dr. Lucina Suarez, an epidemiologist in Austin, Texas, explained that while the graphic is intended to compare the exponential growth in cases between the U.S. and Italy, it doesn’t really work. For one thing, the graphic doesn’t take into account the incidence rate – that is, factoring in the population sizes of Italy (62 million) and the U.S. (330 million).

"These comparisons are always problematic since they are based on counts and not incidence rates," she said. “While giving a sense of rapid rise in cases, it would be more valid if based on the same case definition -- for example, mild versus severe cases -- and knowing the criteria of who is tested and who is not."

She also said that the graphic doesn't factor in the testing taking place in each country. The U.S. numbers are probably under-counted currently because testing is not very available here, she said.

[basketballRob]

]

You have been reported a few times for posting something to the extent of "NY is testing like South Korea now" the last couple of days.

Richfield is now alerting about your post.

Let's be basic here:

--- don't make projections unless you verify it and explain it

The direct comparison between the US and Italy is at this point now misguided given the difference in population. So now we have to start accounting for that, otherwise we'll be needlessly seeding misguided views on the situation.

Make sure you add something of value and somewhat fresh to the topic. For instance, on the link you posted:

Dr. Lucina Suarez, an epidemiologist in Austin, Texas, explained that while the graphic is intended to compare the exponential growth in cases between the U.S. and Italy, it doesn’t really work. For one thing, the graphic doesn’t take into account the incidence rate – that is, factoring in the population sizes of Italy (62 million) and the U.S. (330 million).

"These comparisons are always problematic since they are based on counts and not incidence rates," she said. “While giving a sense of rapid rise in cases, it would be more valid if based on the same case definition -- for example, mild versus severe cases -- and knowing the criteria of who is tested and who is not."

She also said that the graphic doesn't factor in the testing taking place in each country. The U.S. numbers are probably under-counted currently because testing is not very available here, she said.

I've always been analytically minded and see everything based on stats. That's why i tend to post numbers.

Here's an article where they're comparing NY to South Korea, based on expanded testing and social distancing. The article says this can help flatten the curve. This is what i was speculating when i was looking at the number of tests being done.

Based on what NY is doing in comparison to South Korea, i could see them recovering quicker than other parts of the country that aren't following that model.


https://www-amny-com.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/www.amny.com/coronavirus/new-york-tested-10000-for-coronavirus-thursday-leads-nation-in-infections/amp/?amp_js_v=a3&amp_gsa=1&usqp=mq331AQFKAGwASA%3D#aoh=15847914781755&referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&amp_tf=From%20%251%24s&ampshare=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.amny.com%2Fcoronavirus%2Fnew-york-tested-10000-for-coronavirus-thursday-leads-nation-in-infections%2F



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[ProfessorJM]

If you can take the context of what the information is actually measuring, I think any and all accurate data on anything COVID related can be helpful for the right people. I think it's also pretty apparent as a reasonable conjecture to most professionals paying attention to the situation that the United States is woefully under testing at this point in time.

[Hakeemthegoat]

This is a really good interview that is worth reading. Ignore the headline - most of it is not political - there's a lot of good information

Read on Twitter

?s=20

Pretty sure people in Italy and Spain are elected.

[LKN]

]

You have been reported a few times for posting something to the extent of "NY is testing like South Korea now" the last couple of days.

Richfield is now alerting about your post.

Let's be basic here:

--- don't make projections unless you verify it and explain it

The direct comparison between the US and Italy is at this point now misguided given the difference in population. So now we have to start accounting for that, otherwise we'll be needlessly seeding misguided views on the situation.

Make sure you add something of value and somewhat fresh to the topic. For instance, on the link you posted:

Dr. Lucina Suarez, an epidemiologist in Austin, Texas, explained that while the graphic is intended to compare the exponential growth in cases between the U.S. and Italy, it doesn’t really work. For one thing, the graphic doesn’t take into account the incidence rate – that is, factoring in the population sizes of Italy (62 million) and the U.S. (330 million).

"These comparisons are always problematic since they are based on counts and not incidence rates," she said. “While giving a sense of rapid rise in cases, it would be more valid if based on the same case definition -- for example, mild versus severe cases -- and knowing the criteria of who is tested and who is not."

She also said that the graphic doesn't factor in the testing taking place in each country. The U.S. numbers are probably under-counted currently because testing is not very available here, she said.

I've always been analytically minded and see everything based on stats. That's why i tend to post numbers.

Here's an article where they're comparing NY to South Korea, based on expanded testing and social distancing. The article says this can help flatten the curve. This is what i was speculating when i was looking at the number of tests being done.

Based on what NY is doing in comparison to South Korea, i could see them recovering quicker than other parts of the country that aren't following that model.


https://www-amny-com.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/www.amny.com/coronavirus/new-york-tested-10000-for-coronavirus-thursday-leads-nation-in-infections/amp/?amp_js_v=a3&amp_gsa=1&usqp=mq331AQFKAGwASA%3D#aoh=15847914781755&referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&amp_tf=From%20%251%24s&ampshare=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.amny.com%2Fcoronavirus%2Fnew-york-tested-10000-for-coronavirus-thursday-leads-nation-in-infections%2F



Sent from my SM-G950U using RealGM mobile app

NYC is doing the right thing as much as they can right now - but it's far too late to look like South Korea. NYC will be lucky if they don't end up worse than Italy at this point.

It's not just testing.... South Korea is taking action to trace and quarantine based on all the testing.

[ProfessorJM]

You have been reported a few times for posting something to the extent of "NY is testing like South Korea now" the last couple of days.

Richfield is now alerting about your post.

Let's be basic here:

--- don't make projections unless you verify it and explain it

The direct comparison between the US and Italy is at this point now misguided given the difference in population. So now we have to start accounting for that, otherwise we'll be needlessly seeding misguided views on the situation.

Make sure you add something of value and somewhat fresh to the topic. For instance, on the link you posted:

I've always been analytically minded and see everything based on stats. That's why i tend to post numbers.

Here's an article where they're comparing NY to South Korea, based on expanded testing and social distancing. The article says this can help flatten the curve. This is what i was speculating when i was looking at the number of tests being done.

Based on what NY is doing in comparison to South Korea, i could see them recovering quicker than other parts of the country that aren't following that model.


https://www-amny-com.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/www.amny.com/coronavirus/new-york-tested-10000-for-coronavirus-thursday-leads-nation-in-infections/amp/?amp_js_v=a3&amp_gsa=1&usqp=mq331AQFKAGwASA%3D#aoh=15847914781755&referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&amp_tf=From%20%251%24s&ampshare=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.amny.com%2Fcoronavirus%2Fnew-york-tested-10000-for-coronavirus-thursday-leads-nation-in-infections%2F



Sent from my SM-G950U using RealGM mobile app

NYC is doing the right thing as much as they can right now - but it's far too late to look like South Korea. NYC will be lucky if they don't end up worse than Italy at this point.

It's not just testing.... South Korea is taking action to trace and quarantine based on all the testing.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/mar/20/south-korea-rapid-intrusive-measures-covid-19

Not entirely showing all of the facts, but a decent (just a media article but something) primer on some measures South Korea took quickly and on a broad macro level. My wife's parents and some other family live in Seoul, so I was very apprised of this country's day to day situation even more than even the United States at first. They - like Singapore being another example (have family there too) - seemed to have been fairly aggressive quickly, but the United States has a lot more complicated variables that make it harder to be this efficient.

[LKN]

I saw a doctor (who is an expert on epidemics) on TV that made (IMO) a really good point.

- We are making a mistake to continue focusing on testing so much at this point. It's too late, and we need to make expanding ICU and ventilator capacity our number one priority. He said that we of course should continue to ramp up testing, but that the first priority of every official and healthy agency needs to be treatment capacity now. He added that we'll need massive testing later to try and get back to normal - but at this point it's too late for testing to make much impact in stopping the outbreak; containment has been completely lost

[Doug_12]

A wise leader surrounds himself with people smarter than him and then listens to their advice. Sorry about derailing.

A bit from my country - we in Latvia have not locked down everything (like stores and businesses), but the schools, entertainment, public gatherings. Emergency situation was announced on March 12th. Government agencies work, but do not accept any visitors. International travel was stopped since 17th. They ask everyone that comes from abroad (not specifying any countries anymore) to self-isolate and local police is checking on people (or neighbours complain if someone is not self-quarantining).
In stores or any public place you should keep 2 m distance. After the closing the borders we still evacuating people from abroad.

Have increased testing. We have made just 4500 tests (in a country of 2 million) 124 cases positive (March 20). But not everyone can be tested. Initially it was possible (for 84 eur in a private lab), but since then all capacities are only for those with symptoms or coming from abroad. You cannot go to ER or hospital or doctor yourself to get tested. If you have dangerous symptoms they bring you to hospital. In other cases - drive -in tests by appointment or special team goes to your home to take test. Most of cases are mild and stay at home. Just a couple of them were hospitalized. No one has died yet, but all the hospitals stopped any treatments and surgeries that are not urgent to keep space.

We are probably overreacting, but from reading what goes around we are just doing what is right.
From when we had 111 cases (March 19), majority were younger people (3 aged 0-9, 5 aged 10-19, 30 aged 20-29, 36 aged 30-39, 21 aged 40-49, 9 aged 50-59 and just 7 over 60), because most contracted when skiing in Italy.
The emergency situation was announced when we had less than 20 cases!:

Read on Twitter

/photo/1

Up to now they say that there are come cases with local transmissions (family members or others in close contact). Up to now they also say that it is possible to see the spread (where every case got it). So I keep fingers crossed and continue working from home (I am self-employed accountant).

Agreeing w/ Nuntius that you're not overreacting. As it has shown in this (https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9337092b56) article the earlier you take hard measures the shorter you need to keep them.

In Hungary we took very similar measures w/ like 30 cases (except the increased testing) but still not announced lockdowns. Truth is that nobody knows how hard measures are required to take the transmission rate under 1. And in this situation everyone should go hard and do it early: If the government overreacts it will be shown in like 2 weeks, then they can still lift a few sanctions, then monitor what happens and if there is still room, then again. But if the government underreacts and it is shown in like 2 weeks, then if you impose the sanctions at that time you'll have much more infected people in your society, so this time it would take much longer to put the total number of infected people under a certain limit. (That's because you let the virus spread for those additional 2 weeks)

So I quite agree with everyone going hard first, then lifting up sanctions later. With the limited information people have (like which sanction affects the transmission rate how, what is the exact % of people who requires medical care if gets infected, what is the true fatality rate etc...) this is the optimal decision.

[spacemonkey]

Read on Twitter

Not just the flu, bro.

[Courtside]

Yeah, that might be tough. But it seems when I go into a grocery store I kind of get my alert up about what I touch. I'm sure I will mess up and actually scratch my nose or something once. I imagine it is still better to do that while in a grocery store than to scratch your nose or touch face in grocery store without a mask or glove though. But for mask preservation purposes, I have to remember that.

Another problem with those white and blue surgical masks is that they aren't marked for jnside or outside. You see a lot of blue facing out in photos and around, but often times the blue is supposed to be on the inside. The smoother filter side goes out and the fuzzier paper-towel feeling side goes against your face, so that it traps what you're exhaling. Those are more for protecting others from the wearer than vice versa, but more than one study shows that they are fairly effective at flu virus protection also, when worn properly.

The chubbier your face and chin are, the better the seal it will make around the outside

Yes, I know the surgical ones are more for surgeons not to spread their cough/sneeze or anything an infect a patient during surgery, so it trapping what you exhale makes sense. But if you were wearing it for protection, even though it's obviously not something to expect to feel safe by, does it make sense to wear it the same way? Or should it be the reverse since inhaling is the reverse of exhaling and the towel side might stop stuff more effectively than the smooth part. I know it's designed to be right against your face though to immediately stop it.

I imagine the answer will be to wear it the right way which would obviously be the case if I never knew if I had it, and for the foreseeable future, we will never really know that we don't have it, because even test results are delayed and you could have it then. The only thing would be knowing you've developed antibodies and immunity....so never knowing if you are a carrier makes it smarter to wear the right way regardless of the answer I suppose.

In researching t how to make these, I can tell you that none of the materials are one directional. The N95s are different, but surgical masks probably have about the same filtration rate either way. Droplets would still stop on the outside as needed and don't need the softer part to do so. As the secondary purpose of protecting you, it's about the same. The softer side is there for your comfort, and so the very much increased moisture from you, is trapped better as that's the primary purpose of the surgical mask. Smooth side in means the moisture collects more and you now have a slicker and maybe drippier inside surface than it needs to be, and that's kinda gross.

[Crizzle]

do the n95s need to be thrown away each time they are used? like say i go to get groceries, throw it away before i return to my place?

[LKN]

Lol

Read on Twitter

?s=19

[ProfessorJM]

do the n95s need to be thrown away each time they are used? like say i go to get groceries, throw it away before i return to my place?

Generally yes they are disposable, but there are a lot of different types of masks. Make sure to understand how to safely put them on, and then handle and dispose of them.

https://www.cdc.gov/niosh/npptl/topics/respirators/disp_part/default.html

I would start here if you haven't much knowledge of NIOSH/N95 information, etc.

[LKN]

Read on Twitter

?s=19

[Courtside]

do the n95s need to be thrown away each time they are used? like say i go to get groceries, throw it away before i return to my place?

No no. It's the simple folded surgicals that are generally one time use in medical environment, but even those can be re-used some if you are vigilant with how you handle them. Go back a couple of pages to see my post to bwgood77 on how to do this. Use them 30-60 minutes at a time and you can get maybe 5-10 uses out of them, as long as you understand that each time you do you increase the risk that it may have been contaminated or handled wrong.

The N95s are a much higher level mask that are formed to a shape and make more of a seal. For non medical uses, they're designed to give you a day of use, or more (say you were painting or something). They have layers that are electrostatically activated to trap airborne contaminants, germs and viruses and actually neutralize them. Because of how they're made, even disposable N95s (usually one per day instead of one per use) can be more easily re-used and sanitized.

Either mask type would benefit from being sprayed after use by rubbing alcohol (90%+), and then be allowed to fully dry out. This won't help them last longer (might do the opposite actually) but it would help kill any virus molecules if you feel like you were in a higher risk place.

Again... neither mask fully protects you. Please don't gain a false sense of protection when wearing. Always wash or disinfect your hands before and touching the mask, either going on or off.

[Crizzle]

I dont know if this is common knowledge, but in case it is not, you can make your own hand sanitizer by mixing aloe vera and rubbing alcohol

[ProfessorJM]

I dont know if this is common knowledge, but in case it is not, you can make your own hand sanitizer by mixing aloe vera and rubbing alcohol

Yes you can, but make sure it's diluted in the proper ratios.

[ProfessorJM]

I saw a doctor (who is an expert on epidemics) on TV that made (IMO) a really good point.

- We are making a mistake to continue focusing on testing so much at this point. It's too late, and we need to make expanding ICU and ventilator capacity our number one priority. He said that we of course should continue to ramp up testing, but that the first priority of every official and healthy agency needs to be treatment capacity now. He added that we'll need massive testing later to try and get back to normal - but at this point it's too late for testing to make much impact in stopping the outbreak; containment has been completely lost

It's a real issue in certain geographical areas because if the transmission curve takes a bad uptick at the wrong location, you will see a repeat of Italy being overwhelmed. I'd sacrifice testing for ICU/ventilator/health care capacity in general, but testing still should be a huge priority as that also help prevents too much stress on the system at once.

[Dirk]

Masks, this covers it all think

[ProfessorJM]

Maybe this is self-evident too, but just in case...

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/prepare/prevention.html