Coronavirus

[ArtMorte]

There’s 6 reported deaths so far in Illinois.

To shut down the entire state seems pretty insane considering that a lot more than 6 people get shot in Chicago every month. Yet there’s no executive action/response to that problem.

At what point do we need to seriously think about what we’re doing? People losing their jobs and businesses seems much more damaging to me.

You can take a look at what's happening in Pergamo, Italy, and decide do you want that? Hundreds of people dying daily and not only from COVID-19, but from the fact that hospitals have run out of capacity. "Running out of capacity" means in practice that people whose lives could be saved if there were enough intensive care units and staff to treat them, will instead die when those resources are all already in use. And this is not just COVID-19 patients, but patients with other illnesses, strokes, accidents who would require an ICU bed, will die when there's no more capacity left. The only way to avoid this is to take strict measures to flatten the curve of patients in the hope that the curve never exceeds medical care's capacity.

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-they-call-it-the-apocalypse-inside-italys-hardest-hit-hospital-11960597

[Habs72]

To add to your point, fish, I spoke to someone in Australia last week who is a healthcare worker, he is showing all the symptoms, but because he didn't just come back from overseas, and because he's 0.2 degrees below having a 'fever', they wouldn't test him.

Crazy.

Hope it's a false alarm and it's not Covid, CF.

The US was always a ticking bomb since only a selected few would have unlimited access to these testing.
Also, a lot of Americans seemed to dislike wearing mask since they never used to which is only making it worse.
I am not sure whether Australia has good health care but in Canada, Korea, Japan, etc at least you wont die due to lack of testing. Lack of decent health care has to do with a lot of it but some countries just didnt experience enough during MERS 5 yrs ago they are undergoing the pain now and the US happens to be one of them.

I am certain a lot of unknown serious diseases will be sure to come in the future. But countries that comes prepared at any circumstances will endure while those that dont care and dont have infrastructure will get wiped out.
Which is why America used to be one of the best places to live but in extreme circumstances like this, countries with more gov't control will always win out. As crazy as it seems, where you live absolutely matters in situations like this. The only absolute way to guarantee surviving is basically hibernating 365 days while ordering everything on Amazon but how many people can afford to do that?

NONE of the countries except Saudi Arabia and couple of surrounding countries and South Korea experienced pretty much nothing during years when MERS was popping up multiple times. Some european countries only had isolated cases and thats it. MERS doesnt spread easily either.

[Habs72]

Spain will be the next country where choices will be made who is left to die for someone else to live ....

https://english.elpais.com/society/2020-03-20/spanish-doctors-prepare-to-make-difficult-decisions-if-intensive-care-units-reach-capacity.html?rel=mas

[Susan]

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[Michael Jackson]

There’s 6 reported deaths so far in Illinois.

To shut down the entire state seems pretty insane considering that a lot more than 6 people get shot in Chicago every month. Yet there’s no executive action/response to that problem.

At what point do we need to seriously think about what we’re doing? People losing their jobs and businesses seems much more damaging to me.

I think you made your own point if they could just sweep these deaths under the rug they would just like our murder rate. There is a precedent for that. Instead though this is a bit more than 6 deaths. No one is stopping the economy for a handful of deaths. The whole world is shutting down not just Illinois, we are perhaps even lucky to get to it first because we will be up and running sooner then. We can’t blink this away, it’s a real thing and the economy is screwed to all heaven in the short term long term it may never look the same again who knows, time will tell on that.

[dougthonus]

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I'm not sure I find much of what was said in way of his response that compelling, but I still agree with the overall point that the original article had a lot of flaws.

To me, I think we should acknowledge that it probably isn't nearly as deadly as being stated because there is probably an order of magnitude more cases than being stated due to inadequate testing. At the same time, we should acknowledge that it's deadly enough to overrun hospitals and cause massive problems, because we've already seen that in Italy.

That said, I think a reasonably argument can be made for letting the virus sweep through and cope with the damage vs destroying the entire global economic system.

[DuckIII]

I live on an island of 12,000 people. 6 confirmed cases here now. This could swiftly turn into a disaster.

Good luck and be safe.

[dougthonus]

There’s 6 reported deaths so far in Illinois.

To shut down the entire state seems pretty insane considering that a lot more than 6 people get shot in Chicago every month. Yet there’s no executive action/response to that problem.

At what point do we need to seriously think about what we’re doing? People losing their jobs and businesses seems much more damaging to me.

There's no reason to think that gun deaths are going to grow exponentially if you don't take severe action, it just isn't an apples and oranges situation.

I still agree that there is a case for saying, let it go and brace for impact vs risking a complete economic collapse, but comparing death toll isn't relevant. No one is making these actions to stop six deaths. It's the potential exponential growth of that number.

[GetBuLLish]

Is it possible for people to go maybe 2 seconds without making everything insanely political? So repetitive and tiresome.

[DuckIII]

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I'm not sure I find much of what was said in way of his response that compelling, but I still agree with the overall point that the original article had a lot of flaws.

To me, I think we should acknowledge that it probably isn't nearly as deadly as being stated because there is probably an order of magnitude more cases than being stated due to inadequate testing. At the same time, we should acknowledge that it's deadly enough to overrun hospitals and cause massive problems, because we've already seen that in Italy.

How “deadly as being stated” is that? I watch the news, local and national. I read from varied sources. And I don’t see any reports being all panicky about this being some super fatal disease with a high mortality rate and we all need to be terrified (as opposed to smart and cautious). That’s part of what makes no sense about the media supposedly intentionally driving us to panic. Literally 100% of the reports I have read or watched have erred on the side of telling people to not panic and are working hard to balance a painful reality with reassuring content.

Precaution is not panic.

[GetBuLLish]

I'm not sure I find much of what was said in way of his response that compelling, but I still agree with the overall point that the original article had a lot of flaws.

To me, I think we should acknowledge that it probably isn't nearly as deadly as being stated because there is probably an order of magnitude more cases than being stated due to inadequate testing. At the same time, we should acknowledge that it's deadly enough to overrun hospitals and cause massive problems, because we've already seen that in Italy.

That said, I think a reasonably argument can be made for letting the virus sweep through and cope with the damage vs destroying the entire global economic system.

I agree with this. The response wasn't that compelling. And the "oh he's a contributor to Breitbart!" comments are even less compelling.

The article has its flaws for sure. In particular, when he talks about countries like China and S. Korea bringing death and transmission rates down, he's not acknowledging the steps those countries took to get the problem under control.

Nevertheless, he does point out a lot of data that conflicts (possibly disproves) many of the notions that seem to have garnered general consensus. Most critically, IMO, is the data he provides showing that transmission by asymptomatic individuals is far less common than what many others have been saying. If that's true, then the cost/benefit analysis of shutting down the entire economy shifts as there may be narrower, more targeted ways that still allow people to work and make a living.

[Habs72]

Is it possible for people to go maybe 2 seconds without making everything insanely political? So repetitive and tiresome.

Its the politics that are making the decisive decisions in every country, good or bad.

[DuckIII]

Is it possible for people to go maybe 2 seconds without making everything insanely political? So repetitive and tiresome.

The article you posted is clearly politically motivated. Not your posting of it, but the writing of it. If you think it’s a coincidence that a Breitbart contributor is the guy writing a misleading article trying to bolster COVID-19 conspiracy trash, think again.

Your article opened that can of worms, and got responses accordingly.

[DuckIII]

If that's true, then the cost/benefit analysis of shutting down the entire economy shifts as there may be narrower, more targeted ways that still allow people to work and make a living.

That’s not what’s happening. Have you read Pritzker’s order word for word? I have about a dozen times. I had to deep dive it for work. It is “targeted” and was clearly given a significant amount of thought. It is nuanced. It is balanced. It has huge and varied exceptions. Not to mention those that can work at home.

You are just burning the same “panic” straw man as Breitbart Guy.

[CBS7]

There’s 6 reported deaths so far in Illinois.

To shut down the entire state seems pretty insane considering that a lot more than 6 people get shot in Chicago every month. Yet there’s no executive action/response to that problem.

At what point do we need to seriously think about what we’re doing? People losing their jobs and businesses seems much more damaging to me.

I've read several reports that 70% of people would be infected in a short amount of time if we take no action. The disease has a ~3% death rate. The US has ~330 million people. If those numbers hold true, we'd see ~7 million Americans dead. Even if the numbers are 1/10th of that, Covid-19 would kill more Americans than the Civil War and WW2 (not combined). Is that worth an economic recession?

The numbers would actually be higher though, because 70% of the population getting infected in short order would completely overwhelm the healthcare system and the majority would get no treatment. It would also contribute to people dying of other issues because of being unable to get treatment due to.. the healthcare system being overwhelmed.

And as for the political side, eg people thinking this has something to do with it being an election year in the US - how the hell does the global response reflect that? The US isn't the center of everyone's' world. Italy hasn't been shut down and lost ~5000 to covid-19 because its an election year in the US. Wuhan wasn't quarantined for weeks because its an election year in the US. Most major events overseas are not being cancelled because its an election year in the US.

Please reconsider your stance on the topic. We will all be better off for it.

[coldfish]

I still see a huge number of unknowns:
- Is the quarantining and social distancing working? Logic says that it has to be but Italy has been doing it for weeks and their situation seems to continue to deteriorate.
- Once we get past the initial surge, then what? Are we just going to keep the country locked down for 6 months? Will this die out? Is there some type of treatment or vaccine around the corner that can radically mitigate this?
- We still really don't know how rapidly the virus spreads and how severe it is. IMO, the data is still bad. You outright can't trust the Chinese and most of the rest of the world is rationing tests.

The economic situation is rapidly deteriorating. A $2T stimulus isn't doing bunk in the face of this. This is really uncharted territory from an economic standpoint. We are sitting on a mountain of debt in the private sector and most people stopped doing anything of value or spending discretionary income. I wouldn't be surprised if our day to day GDP wasn't down 35%. No one is buying anything of value, going out to restaurants or taking trips. The energy sector got nuked. Its basically just food and other consumer goods, defense spending, other government spending and medical.

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I'm generally trying to be on the positive side of this but when I read that article at first I was like "you just cherry picked a bunch of random numbers, put them in excel and created graphs that mean nothing."

[R3AL1TY]

From a span of last weekend to now, the U.S. jumped from around 9th in the world for number of corona cases to 4th in the world (over 27,000 cases).

Edit: Didn't realize the stats got updated today. The U.S. is actually 3rd in the world now with over 38,000 cases! Most of the cases are in New York.

[League Circles]

If that's true, then the cost/benefit analysis of shutting down the entire economy shifts as there may be narrower, more targeted ways that still allow people to work and make a living.

That’s not what’s happening. Have you read Pritzker’s order word for word? I have about a dozen times. I had to deep dive it for work. It is “targeted” and was clearly given a significant amount of thought. It is nuanced. It is balanced. It has huge and varied exceptions. Not to mention those that can work at home.

You are just burning the same “panic” straw man as Breitbart Guy.

Not to get too far astray, but are you sure that Breitbart is racist, misogynistic, etc, etc as you previously stated? I genuinely ask because I trust your judgement and I'm too lazy to dig into it myself, but I have to pause when the frequent claims of that from the left are countered by Bill Maher bringing on Steve Bannon and Milo Yiannopoulos and giving them credibility (because I trust Maher's judgement) and on Real Time they didn't seem quite what I was expecting after years of hearing about Breitbart from the left. I just kinda wanted to double check with you that you've sort of personally verified this before I sort of permanently write them off, so to speak.

[dougthonus]

How “deadly as being stated” is that?

I may be attached to a lot of the past reports, but it was frequently stated at around 3%, and it's highly likely that it's an order of magnitude less than that.

I watch the news, local and national. I read from varied sources. And I don’t see any reports being all panicky about this being some super fatal disease with a high mortality rate and we all need to be terrified (as opposed to smart and cautious). That’s part of what makes no sense about the media supposedly intentionally driving us to panic. Literally 100% of the reports I have read or watched have erred on the side of telling people to not panic and are working hard to balance a painful reality with reassuring content.

Precaution is not panic.

This is the most extreme response to a crisis that I have ever seen in my lifetime. Whatever the second most extreme response is, it isn't even remotely close to this either. I mean this is probably an order of magnitude more extreme than anything I've ever seen in my life.

We are highly like to cause something between a deep recession and global economic collapse based on our actions. Not sure what you'd have to happen for things to reach panic stage to you, but that sure seems like panic to me.

The above opinion is based on how we are acting, not on how the media is reporting it. I would say the main CDC site with the huge red circles all over the place sure looks like a diagram created to induce panic, and it's the one floating around everywhere though. That said, I don't really have much opinion on the media coverage inducing panic.

[GetBuLLish]

If that's true, then the cost/benefit analysis of shutting down the entire economy shifts as there may be narrower, more targeted ways that still allow people to work and make a living.

That’s not what’s happening. Have you read Pritzker’s order word for word? I have about a dozen times. I had to deep dive it for work. It is “targeted” and was clearly given a significant amount of thought. It is nuanced. It is balanced. It has huge and varied exceptions. Not to mention those that can work at home.

You are just burning the same “panic” straw man as Breitbart Guy.

Are you serious, Duck? Have you seen the economic projections?

Greg Daco, chief U.S. economist at Oxford Economics, says the economy is assured of a recession — at least two consecutive quarters of economic decline — with output falling 0.4 percent in the first quarter and 12 percent in the second. That would be the biggest quarterly contraction on record, but Goldman Sachs upped the ante on Friday, saying it expected a 24 percent drop in the second quarter.

“This is not just a blip,” Mr. Daco said of the outlook. “We’ve never experienced something like this.”

On Thursday, the Labor Department reported that initial jobless claims jumped 30 percent the previous week, to 281,000, the highest level since the aftermath of a hurricane in 2017. But even that number looks tiny next to the number of new claims that Goldman Sachs foresees in the next weekly report: 2.25 million.

That's from the NY Times. Is that left wing enough for you? Or, let me guess, some guy at Goldman Sachs once took a picture with a Breitbart writer 10 years ago, so this is all far-right conspiracy?

And yes, I've read Pritzker's order. And I also live in Chicago and have seen what has happened prior to the order taking effect. Chicago is virtually empty now. If this continues for another few weeks, there will be a massive loss of jobs and small businesses.