Semi-OT: Coronavirus (COVID-19) Discussion Thread IV (Must read Post 1)

[basketballRob]

According to the CDC,

In 2017-2018, there were an estimated 44,802,629 cases of the flu in the US with 61099 deaths. This equates to a 0.13% fatality rate.

In 2018-2019 there were an estimated 35,520,883 cases of the flu in the US with 34157 deaths. This equates to a 0.09% fatality rate.

The estimates above are based on extrapolation and not just counting the number of confirmed cases. These estimates are done after the flu season is over. Any estimate done during the season is open to wild variance/errors.

For the corona virus, there have been 26,747 confirmed cases so far with 340 deaths. This puts the fatality rate of confirmed cases at 1.2%. The problem is, theres likely a tonne of unconfirmed cases rolling around. People with minor symptoms probably arent getting tested. There could easily be as many as 5-10x as many overall cases vs those actually reported/confirmed. 'This would put the fatality rate somewhere in the same range as the seasonal flu.

So why is there mass panic? Its not virus itself. Is the fact that the most health care systems aren't built to handle anything new. This is result of a global capitalistic system running wild that is built to serve the 1%.

The pandemic is the health care system not the virus itself.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2017-2018.htm

Many of our coronavirus cases are still new and take a while to perpetuate. Plus many of them are critically ill.

https://www-nbcnews-com.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/ncna1164756?amp_js_v=a3&amp_gsa=1&usqp=mq331AQFKAGwASA%3D#aoh=15848946565771&referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&amp_tf=From%20%251%24s&ampshare=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.nbcnews.com%2Fhealth%2Fhealth-news%2Fslow-burn-coronavirus-symptoms-often-linger-worsening-n1164756
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[infinite11285]

Not now. She had them a couple years ago. Her lungs are permanently weakened/damaged though. The partially collapsed lung too. Thanks for checking.

My father is a Doctor in NorCal, has a similar medical history, and is infected. Anyone who has, or has had, medical issues related to their respiratory system is considered extremely high-risk, given COVID-19 primarily targets the respiratory system. Even someone with a history of asthma is considered high-risk. The infection has led to him contracting pneumonia, and he has to have his lungs drained frequently. I don’t want to scare you, but your sister should be extremely precautious.

****. I had childhood asthma, that went away by like 8 years old. Hope I'll be okay

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I watched my father take his final breaths, via Skype, yesterday morning. If your sister is still being pressured to go to work despite the severity of current events, tell her it’s not worth it.

[MotownMadness]

My father is a Doctor in NorCal, has a similar medical history, and is infected. Anyone who has, or has had, medical issues related to their respiratory system is considered extremely high-risk, given COVID-19 primarily targets the respiratory system. Even someone with a history of asthma is considered high-risk. The infection has led to him contracting pneumonia, and he has to have his lungs drained frequently. I don’t want to scare you, but your sister should be extremely precautious.

****. I had childhood asthma, that went away by like 8 years old. Hope I'll be okay

Sent from my LM-Q710(FGN) using RealGM Forums mobile app

I watched my father take his final breaths, via Skype, yesterday morning. If your sister is still being pressured to go to work despite the severity of current events, tell her it’s not worth it.

Sorry to hear that. I had to watch my dad go out that way as well a few years ago. Caught pneumonia while having no immune system from cancer.

[NirvanaFC]

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/13/business/masks-china-coronavirus.html

New York Times called China keeping the masks they produced for their citizens "hoarding".

Since then, China has undertaken a mobilization of wartime proportions to expand its output of disposable surgical masks. Daily production soared from about 10 million at the start of February to 115 million at the end of the month.

Hopefully there's more emphasis to bring back manufacturing jobs after this so we don't have to guilt sovereign nations into helping.

If the masks were produced here we'd be way ahead right now.

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Yup, especially essential medical supplies

[BladeDaywalker]

Read on Twitter

[Dubious Handles]

My father is a Doctor in NorCal, has a similar medical history, and is infected. Anyone who has, or has had, medical issues related to their respiratory system is considered extremely high-risk, given COVID-19 primarily targets the respiratory system. Even someone with a history of asthma is considered high-risk. The infection has led to him contracting pneumonia, and he has to have his lungs drained frequently. I don’t want to scare you, but your sister should be extremely precautious.

****. I had childhood asthma, that went away by like 8 years old. Hope I'll be okay

Sent from my LM-Q710(FGN) using RealGM Forums mobile app

I watched my father take his final breaths, via Skype, yesterday morning. If your sister is still being pressured to go to work despite the severity of current events, tell her it’s not worth it.

my condolences man thank you for sharing your message with us. I had childhood asthma till I was 13 so i'm not sure about my risk status, but I will definitely not take any chances.

[SSUBluesman]

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/13/business/masks-china-coronavirus.html

New York Times called China keeping the masks they produced for their citizens "hoarding".

Since then, China has undertaken a mobilization of wartime proportions to expand its output of disposable surgical masks. Daily production soared from about 10 million at the start of February to 115 million at the end of the month.

Hopefully there's more emphasis to bring back manufacturing jobs after this so we don't have to guilt sovereign nations into helping.

If the masks were produced here we'd be way ahead right now.

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Hopefully there's a thoughtful reflection on the negative impact of prioritizing shareholder value at all costs on things such as manufacturing, wages, health care via consolidation of services/shuttering of rural hospitals, etc. Maybe we realize that tying health insurance directly to employment is not a good idea.

Unfortunately I think a lot of the optimism that people have is driven by an ignorance of how hollowed out and already near the brink America was before all of this.

[BladeDaywalker]

Read on Twitter

[LKN]

OMFG Florida - why are you like this!!!!!

Read on Twitter

?s=20

[ArtMorte]

According to the CDC,

In 2017-2018, there were an estimated 44,802,629 cases of the flu in the US with 61099 deaths. This equates to a 0.13% fatality rate.

In 2018-2019 there were an estimated 35,520,883 cases of the flu in the US with 34157 deaths. This equates to a 0.09% fatality rate.

The estimates above are based on extrapolation and not just counting the number of confirmed cases. These estimates are done after the flu season is over. Any estimate done during the season is open to wild variance/errors.

For the corona virus, there have been 26,747 confirmed cases so far with 340 deaths. This puts the fatality rate of confirmed cases at 1.2%. The problem is, theres likely a tonne of unconfirmed cases rolling around. People with minor symptoms probably arent getting tested. There could easily be as many as 5-10x as many overall cases vs those actually reported/confirmed. 'This would put the fatality rate somewhere in the same range as the seasonal flu.

So why is there mass panic? Its not virus itself. Is the fact that the most health care systems aren't built to handle anything new. This is result of a global capitalistic system running wild that is built to serve the 1%.

The pandemic is the health care system not the virus itself.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2017-2018.htm

Yes, yes, yes, the fatality rate of COVID-19 isn't terribly high. But it's really stupid to say "The pandemic is the health care system not the virus itself." There isn't a healthcare system on the planet that's equipped to deal with a virus that's a) this highly contagious and b) putting so many people in hospital even if it's not fatal to all of them. The virus is the problem that needs battling against; trying to put some other spin on it is just being a smart ass.

[LKN]

My father is a Doctor in NorCal, has a similar medical history, and is infected. Anyone who has, or has had, medical issues related to their respiratory system is considered extremely high-risk, given COVID-19 primarily targets the respiratory system. Even someone with a history of asthma is considered high-risk. The infection has led to him contracting pneumonia, and he has to have his lungs drained frequently. I don’t want to scare you, but your sister should be extremely precautious.

****. I had childhood asthma, that went away by like 8 years old. Hope I'll be okay

Sent from my LM-Q710(FGN) using RealGM Forums mobile app

I watched my father take his final breaths, via Skype, yesterday morning. If your sister is still being pressured to go to work despite the severity of current events, tell her it’s not worth it.

I'm so sorry.... hopefully people can learn from these tragic examples and help prevent more of them

[Stillwater]

OMFG Florida - why are you like this!!!!!

Read on Twitter

?s=20

Yeah the virus doesn't live as long in hot humid conditions not hot dry ones dumb dumb dumb.
Not to mention blowing germs up your nose is pretty bonehead like behavior

[NoDopeOnSundays]

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?s=20


States competing for supplies just like I said would happen.


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[OkcSinceSGA]

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GOP just doesn't care it sounds like.

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[Courtside]

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/13/business/masks-china-coronavirus.html

New York Times called China keeping the masks they produced for their citizens "hoarding".

Since then, China has undertaken a mobilization of wartime proportions to expand its output of disposable surgical masks. Daily production soared from about 10 million at the start of February to 115 million at the end of the month.

Hopefully there's more emphasis to bring back manufacturing jobs after this so we don't have to guilt sovereign nations into helping.

If the masks were produced here we'd be way ahead right now.

Sent from my Pixel 3 XL using RealGM mobile app

I understand the fear that is causing the NYT to say this, but it's completely and totally unfair. Would NY state be sending masks to Spain, knowing what they know about the virus?

Yes, China has massively ramped up capacity and is building a stockpile for their own use first while helping and encouraging their industry to grow and help meet the rising global demand. In a situation like this, you must help yourself first before others. It's like the instructions you get on a plane regarding the oxygen masks, to put yours on first and then help others, because if you fail to first protect yourself, then both you AND the person you want to help can die. If you put your mask on first, you are then able to help another, who can help another, etc...

In the case of China and the masks, since they produce probably 80 or 90% of the world's masks, what do you think would happen if they didn't first protect themselves, and then lose the ability to keep producing masks for their own needs, let alone others? It means they first succumb and then by default everyone else that depends on them does too.

If the CDC thinks that the US would need anywhere from 1.5 to 7.5 BILLION masks in the case of a pandemic (as per their own 2015 report), then China would need 4-5X that to ensure they are protected. They are both building towards these numbers themselves while increasing capacity to help others.

You can't pour from an empty cup.

If China fails to keep its own cup full, then they cannot pour anything out to others. Based on the global manufacturing and supply chains that exist, this is the bare truth of the situation. Yes, the rest of the world will need to create their own manufacturing capacity for these products, but it will be years before that has reached adequate levels, so in the mean time we have to rely heavily on China. We have to hope they can keep themselves protected and that as they try to open things up, there are no more outbreaks that would put the entire global supply of masks in jeopardy.

[Stillwater]

According to the CDC,

In 2017-2018, there were an estimated 44,802,629 cases of the flu in the US with 61099 deaths. This equates to a 0.13% fatality rate.

In 2018-2019 there were an estimated 35,520,883 cases of the flu in the US with 34157 deaths. This equates to a 0.09% fatality rate.

The estimates above are based on extrapolation and not just counting the number of confirmed cases. These estimates are done after the flu season is over. Any estimate done during the season is open to wild variance/errors.

For the corona virus, there have been 26,747 confirmed cases so far with 340 deaths. This puts the fatality rate of confirmed cases at 1.2%. The problem is, theres likely a tonne of unconfirmed cases rolling around. People with minor symptoms probably arent getting tested. There could easily be as many as 5-10x as many overall cases vs those actually reported/confirmed. 'This would put the fatality rate somewhere in the same range as the seasonal flu.

So why is there mass panic? Its not virus itself. Is the fact that the most health care systems aren't built to handle anything new. This is result of a global capitalistic system running wild that is built to serve the 1%.

The pandemic is the health care system not the virus itself.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2017-2018.htm

Yes, yes, yes, the fatality rate of COVID-19 isn't terribly high. But it's really stupid to say "The pandemic is the health care system not the virus itself." There isn't a healthcare system on the planet that's equipped to deal with a virus that's a) this highly contagious and b) putting so many people in hospital even if it's not fatal to all of them. The virus is the problem that needs battling against; trying to put some other spin on it is just being a smart ass.

Nobodies opinion has to be considered stupid even if it's bone headed analysis.
What most are missing in the % fails to factor there's a vaccine available to people for the flu and there won't be one for a year on average projections for COVID-19.
Factoring the % of people who die from the flu vs this are heavily impacted by vaccination vs no vaccination.
I agree we won't know for some time how bad this is until we start testing potential carriers with little or no symptoms even in just random tests of otherwise healthy people , but we are nowhere near that with the number of infected swarming the ICU of every hospital in the world already.

[LKN]

Read on Twitter

?s=20


States competing for supplies just like I said would happen.


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I almost think the dems should just nominate Cuomo for as their presidential candidate (I'm not against Biden, he'll listen to experts) but we are going to be recovering from this for quite some time and Cuomo has shown himself to be rock solid in a crisis.

Hell - we should make the guy president right now. I'd sure as hell sleep better.

[Optimus_Steel]

Read on Twitter

GOP just doesn't care it sounds like.

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If you have checks for their re-election campaign they care alot....

[ItsDanger]

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/13/business/masks-china-coronavirus.html

New York Times called China keeping the masks they produced for their citizens "hoarding".

Since then, China has undertaken a mobilization of wartime proportions to expand its output of disposable surgical masks. Daily production soared from about 10 million at the start of February to 115 million at the end of the month.

Hopefully there's more emphasis to bring back manufacturing jobs after this so we don't have to guilt sovereign nations into helping.

If the masks were produced here we'd be way ahead right now.

Sent from my Pixel 3 XL using RealGM mobile app

I understand the fear that is causing the NYT to say this, but it's completely and totally unfair. Would NY state be sending masks to Spain, knowing what they know about the virus?

Yes, China has massively ramped up capacity and is building a stockpile for their own use first while helping and encouraging their industry to grow and help meet the rising global demand. In a situation like this, you must help yourself first before others. It's like the instructions you get on a plane regarding the oxygen masks, to put yours on first and then help others, because if you fail to first protect yourself, then both you AND the person you want to help can die. If you put your mask on first, you are then able to help another, who can help another, etc...

In the case of China and the masks, since they produce probably 80 or 90% of the world's masks, what do you think would happen if they didn't first protect themselves, and then lose the ability to keep producing masks for their own needs, let alone others? It means they first succumb and then by default everyone else that depends on them does too.

If the CDC thinks that the US would need anywhere from 1.5 to 7.5 BILLION masks in the case of a pandemic (as per their own 2015 report), then China would need 4-5X that to ensure they are protected. They are both building towards these numbers themselves while increasing capacity to help others.

You can't pour from an empty cup.

If China fails to keep its own cup full, then they cannot pour anything out to others. Based on the global manufacturing and supply chains that exist, this is the bare truth of the situation. Yes, the rest of the world will need to create their own manufacturing capacity for these products, but it will be years before that has reached adequate levels, so in the mean time we have to rely heavily on China. We have to hope they can keep themselves protected and that as they try to open things up, there are no more outbreaks that would put the entire global supply of masks in jeopardy.

You just proved his point 100%. Need to have supply diversification.

[LKN]

According to the CDC,

In 2017-2018, there were an estimated 44,802,629 cases of the flu in the US with 61099 deaths. This equates to a 0.13% fatality rate.

In 2018-2019 there were an estimated 35,520,883 cases of the flu in the US with 34157 deaths. This equates to a 0.09% fatality rate.

The estimates above are based on extrapolation and not just counting the number of confirmed cases. These estimates are done after the flu season is over. Any estimate done during the season is open to wild variance/errors.

For the corona virus, there have been 26,747 confirmed cases so far with 340 deaths. This puts the fatality rate of confirmed cases at 1.2%. The problem is, theres likely a tonne of unconfirmed cases rolling around. People with minor symptoms probably arent getting tested. There could easily be as many as 5-10x as many overall cases vs those actually reported/confirmed. 'This would put the fatality rate somewhere in the same range as the seasonal flu.

So why is there mass panic? Its not virus itself. Is the fact that the most health care systems aren't built to handle anything new. This is result of a global capitalistic system running wild that is built to serve the 1%.

The pandemic is the health care system not the virus itself.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2017-2018.htm

Yes, yes, yes, the fatality rate of COVID-19 isn't terribly high. But it's really stupid to say "The pandemic is the health care system not the virus itself." There isn't a healthcare system on the planet that's equipped to deal with a virus that's a) this highly contagious and b) putting so many people in hospital even if it's not fatal to all of them. The virus is the problem that needs battling against; trying to put some other spin on it is just being a smart ass.

Nobodies opinion has to be considered stupid even if it's bone headed analysis.
What most are missing in the % is there is a vaccine available to people for the flu and there won't be one for a year on average projections for COVID-19.
Factoring the % of people who die from the flu vs this are heavily impacted by vaccination vs no vaccination.
I agree we won't know for some time how bad this is until we start testing potential carriers with little or no symptoms even in just random tests of otherwise healthy people , but we are nowhere near that with the number of infected swarming the ICU of every hospital in the world already.

Italy is pretty instructive. It's bad, very bad.... COVID-19 has pushed the overall Italian death rate up over 20% (and that's based on death numbers from several days ago... it's certainly quite a bit higher on a daily basis now).

The US, Spain, France and UK look to be heading in the same direction. Still hope for Germany and Canada (both of whom have reacted strongly - esp Germany)