Semi-OT: Coronavirus (COVID-19) Discussion Thread IV (Must read Post 1)

[LKN]

Authorities need to hammer in the idea that "staying inside" will only produce 'results' 2, 3 weeks after it.

Even after the inevitable mandatory quarantines, the numbers will keep going up.

Italy has been shut down for a many days now and they're still not seeing the results. Next week is "crucial for them" (their words) in seeing the results of their lockdown.

In the US there are still mass gatherings. These will impact the numbers 10-14 days from now...

actually it seems that today for the first time there is a substantial decrease in new infected people (-15%) since the national lockdown...

Hopefully, but we'll see. I think the new daily cases will dance around that 5500-7000 figure for like 5-7 days, then it'll start decreasing gradually.

Italy is also still mostly only testing sick people. Until they start South Korea style testing we really won't know for sure.

If you can find hospitalization rates keep an eye on that.... and actually the death rate is probably a better barometer now. They are going to be getting to 10,000 a day if it keeps going up the way it has.

[ken6199]

In short, China is on the down slope. The entire Europe is at the peak. US is still on the up slope.

If we isolate - we will be slowly peaking. If we don't, only God knows.

[ItsDanger]

Its the daily growth rate of confirmed cases you need to track to see the progression.

do you talk to me?

I'm speaking to the forum, I posted a week ago the growth was not exponential anymore. Still measures need to be maintained to confirm though.

[bwgood77]

Unfortunately those numbers are fairly meaningless right now due to the terrible lack of testing.

Just watch how NY goes. They are actually doing heavy testing and should give us some kind of barometer.

US mortality rate will be even lower when more testing is done.

Not if hospital capacity gets overrun. Also, I'm going to repeat this again - deaths (before hospital capacity is overrun) lag infections by something like 25 days on average.

I'm not trying to spread doom and gloom... but I am trying to make clear that no one should have a false sense of security due to the current numbers (which outside of NY are just mostly not helpful). If we act like things are really bad we have a better chance of having them not get worse.

Yeah, I've seen people focus on daily death #s, but it's better to look at confirmed case #s, since deaths lag those by 2-5 weeks....if those continue to grow, deaths likely will, especially if they are only testing people with severe symptoms. Now if they were just testing everyone, that might not be as much the case, but I still think the virus is starting to just hit some states so the deaths will likely gradually rise and especially if it starts spreading rapidly, it will get worse.

[ItsDanger]

People here can criticize whoever the President is at the time. Direct your criticsm to the real culprits, all the congress who are there for much longer period of time and the CDC. Center for Disease Control has failed their main responsibility yet again. I expect radical changes after this crisis. Also expect the WHO to be restructured, hopefully eliminated, its turned into another political tool. Epic failure.

[Dirk]

Would anyone be able the link the newest curve of infection rate compared to Italy, Spain, and Germany?

Since each hit 100 cases
ITA day 29
SPA day 21
GER day 21


A glimpse of the number of tests. I notice Spain is desperate to get more tests (there is a shortage...)

[LKN]

People here can criticize whoever the President is at the time. Direct your criticsm to the real culprits, all the congress who are there for much longer period of time and the CDC. Center for Disease Control has failed their main responsibility yet again. I expect radical changes after this crisis. Also expect the WHO to be restructured, hopefully eliminated, its turned into another political tool. Epic failure.

Who's in charge of the CDC again? I can't seem to remember..... do we elect someone to do that?

[ItsDanger]

People here can criticize whoever the President is at the time. Direct your criticsm to the real culprits, all the congress who are there for much longer period of time and the CDC. Center for Disease Control has failed their main responsibility yet again. I expect radical changes after this crisis. Also expect the WHO to be restructured, hopefully eliminated, its turned into another political tool. Epic failure.

Who's in charge of the CDC again? I can't seem to remember..... do we elect someone to do that?

Redfield took over from the Obama appointee sometime in 2018. Its really irrelevant. Its the bureaucracy that is Washington that is the problem.

[Dirk]

Pausing topic.

If we want to read certain discussions, we will go here: https://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewforum.php?f=69

There have been beyond boring politically motivated tweets that got dumped here. A lot of them were moved out. But it's impractical to micro manage every single post that may or may not be "too emotional". And it's only reasonable to understand that there are very valid critics as well. It'd be completely delusional not to understand this.

I disagree that this topic has been a bashing fest on the President (like I said, tons of tweets that just incited political discussions were moved out). I don't think the topic has been bad enough for anyone to delusionally think "omg, I come here for the America bashing". That is just a dead giveaway of someone that is very removed from good sense.

Our man from Fresno who works at a courthouse and was coughed on by a witness adds value to the topic. Read his novel and see if you understand his frustration. I know where he is coming from in some parts. I.e, it is a fact that every other country in the world was not prepared for this (except I guess Korea, Taiwan). He is a real user. Real person. There really is no need to immediately attack the user just because his post upset you.

But honestly, you have the report button. Use it if you feel posts don't bring value to the topic. That's the best way to express your feedback. Very rarely do these types of posts commenting on the tone of the thread work. Decide which posts to reply to and debate and decide which ones to ignore. Understand that everywhere in the world, every government is under fire.

Use your best judgement when posting. If it's not fresh, don't post. Use the CA Board to vent and go more in depth about certain topics of discussion.

TL;DR the topic has been fine. There is no reason for these arguments. Let me save you from wasting your time with discussions that don't enrich you. I'm moving the posts out of here so as to not derail the topic. There is always someone who parachutes into topics and resurrects these fights.

[OkcSinceSGA]

Read on Twitter

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[LKN]

In short, China is on the down slope. The entire Europe is at the peak. US is still on the up slope.

If we isolate - we will be slowly peaking. If we don't, only God knows.

Where did you get the idea that all of Europe is at the peak? We don't even know if Italy has peaked.

I'm not even sure if Italy has managed to flatten the curve much yet. The trajectory of their death rate is very scary.

[ItsDanger]

This is the kind of chart you should be looking at. It helps if you had actuarial exposure. The reason I use mortality rate often is that other variables can be less reliable. Dead is dead.

[mcmurphy]

Would anyone be able the link the newest curve of infection rate compared to Italy, Spain, and Germany?

Since each hit 100 cases
ITA day 29
SPA day 21
GER day 21


A glimpse of the number of tests. I notice Spain is desperate to get more tests (there is a shortage...)

your data tests for Italy is not updated... today are over 258k
http://www.salute.gov.it/imgs/C_17_pagineAree_5351_28_file.pdf

[NoDopeOnSundays]

Read on Twitter

Sent from my LM-Q710(FGN) using RealGM mobile app

People in the comments are saying it's an incorrect translation and that it's 112 more than yesterday making the total 674.

[LKN]

This is the kind of chart you should be looking at. It helps if you had actuarial exposure. The reason I use mortality rate often is that other variables can be less reliable. Dead is dead.

I actually think that counting hospitalizations and death (including COVID-19, ILI and all cause) probably are more useful.

Infection count is mostly a reflection of how much you are testing. If you are south Korea it's probably pretty useful. If you are the US it's pretty useless (outside of maybe NY)

[mademan]

This is the kind of chart you should be looking at. It helps if you had actuarial exposure. The reason I use mortality rate often is that other variables can be less reliable. Dead is dead.

There's too many variables in death too. It's difficult to pinpoint the cause of death; not everybody who dies who had COVID dies cause of it.

[whonka]

Watch on YouTube

[mcmurphy]

actually it seems that today for the first time there is a substantial decrease in new infected people (-15%) since the national lockdown...

Hopefully, but we'll see. I think the new daily cases will dance around that 5500-7000 figure for like 5-7 days, then it'll start decreasing gradually.

Italy is also still mostly only testing sick people. Until they start South Korea style testing we really won't know for sure.

If you can find hospitalization rates keep an eye on that.... and actually the death rate is probably a better barometer now. They are going to be getting to 10,000 a day if it keeps going up the way it has.

the hospitalization rate is of 50% of positives and the ICU are the 6.5%

[LKN]

This is the kind of chart you should be looking at. It helps if you had actuarial exposure. The reason I use mortality rate often is that other variables can be less reliable. Dead is dead.

There's too many variables in death too. It's difficult to pinpoint the cause of death; not everybody who dies who had COVID dies cause of it.

Big picture it really helps though. Right now Italy's death rate is up over 20% (actually might be over 30% now... 20% was a few days ago). That shows you how dangerous this is right there.

[LKN]

Hopefully, but we'll see. I think the new daily cases will dance around that 5500-7000 figure for like 5-7 days, then it'll start decreasing gradually.

Italy is also still mostly only testing sick people. Until they start South Korea style testing we really won't know for sure.

If you can find hospitalization rates keep an eye on that.... and actually the death rate is probably a better barometer now. They are going to be getting to 10,000 a day if it keeps going up the way it has.

the hospitalization rate is of 50% of positives and the ICU are the 6.5%

Ugh - so yeah... mostly testing symptomatic sick people