NY 567 wrote:Part of me thinks this is widespread and that way, way more people have that than reported. So trying to contain this thing at this point is utterly pointless. The one possible good thing about that is if that were true, that means the death rate is lower than what is currently being estimated. It's harsh to say this, but if this thing is already out there, then I don't see the point of containment and lockdown any further. A recession or a depression would make this pandemic much worse.
I understand your point. But if you look at specific regions and countries, such general statements are much harder to make. The first mass hit region was the Hubei province, then Italy, then Spain, and now New York. The mortality rate in Hubei, Italy, and Spain are much higher than average because hospitals are overwhelmed and people are suffocating and dying in cots and on hospital floors.
If the virus was actually evenly widespread around this country, or Europe, or the world, why would there only be hot spots in those regions? I don't believe it's logical to suspect that the same thing won't happen elsewhere in this country, especially urban/metropolitan centers like NYC. If it happens in all our major cities, that will simultaneously make everything worse.
We're not trying to prevent .1% of the population dying, we're trying to prevent 1%, 3%, 5% because that's what seems to be the mortality rate when you don't flatten the curve. I don't know the answers or the future either, but those that are talking 'economy over health' don't seem to really be taking everything we've seen into account (not criticizing your post, I'm talking about some of the much less level-headed things I've seen on TV and in the news the last day or 2.)
There is the scenario that you've raised that could be true right now- that the virus is now totally widespread and what is happening in Italy is already 100% ordained at this point in every town and state in our country. If so then God help us...I'm not sure what the best case scenario is then. I guess in that case, yes if it's inevitable then we should all go to work while also making peace with the fact that no one's life will go untouched in major ways. I think we all have parents, close family, friends, work associates, neighbors, etc. that are older, have asthma, are recovering cancer patients, or have other risk factors (obesity, diabetes, etc.) Regardless of the overall mortality rate (I can't fathom to guess), a significant percentage of all those people I mentioned will suffocate and die in hospitals.
