Semi-OT: Coronavirus (COVID-19) Discussion Thread V (Read Post 1 & FAQ)

[zimpy27]

Don't like these graphs, too much error in testing variance.

If they did a graph based on deaths rather than cases then it'd be more accurate but even that has substantial error.

[bwgood77]

at this point you better hope you live in a state where the governor is taking this seriously as we are being led by a rudderless ship federally.

I'm not even sure that will help much, unfortunately. If California hypothetically handles the crisis well but Arizona goes full 'live free or die, seriously, we mean it' what's to stop asymptomatic residents of AZ who care carriers of the virus from crossing over to CA to find safety? (To be clear, I'm not saying AZ is handling it poorly, just a quick border state to name for this example)

Coordination is important and the restrictions have to be consistent across the board. If some states are inconvenienced because they aren't hard-hit yet have to deal with NY-level restrictions then they should consider themselves fortunate for being bored rather than watching neighbors and relatives fight for their lives.

Yeah, if people from China can bring it here, those from states doing nothing will easily start it up again in other states regardless of their containment efforts.

[bwgood77]

Don't like these graphs, too much error in testing variance.

If they did a graph based on deaths rather than cases then it'd be more accurate but even that has substantial error.

I agree. I had actually asked ken if he had a graph of deaths, and I thought about building one using the Worldometer website. I might if I have time. But yes, this is somewhat meaningless because testing is not consistent between countries. Though it does seem like many countries are only testing those with serious symptoms, except South Korea and probably a few others.

[bwgood77]

Italy, updated

• Active cases: 57.521 (+3.491)
• Deaths: 7.503 (+683)
• Recovered: 9.362 (+1.036)
• Intensive care: 3.489 (+93)

Total cases: 74.386 (+5.210, +7,5%)

Yesterday's update:

Spoiler:

Subject: Semi-OT: Coronavirus (COVID-19) Discussion Thread V (Read Post 1 & FAQ)

Italy update

• Active cases: 54.030 (+3.612)
• Deaths: 6.820 (+743)
• Healed: 8.326 (+894)
• Intensive care: 3.396 (+192)

Total cases: 69.176 (+5.249, +8,2%)

So after a "bad" day this is semi-encouraging. If they can keep this up they should be able to get their hospitals back under control at some point.

I think you need 2-3 days of reverse trends to be meaningful. I've seen other seemingly good days followed by very bad ones, so it just simply came down to timing of death. Multiple people one day hung on until the next day.

[LKN]

Don't like these graphs, too much error in testing variance.

If they did a graph based on deaths rather than cases then it'd be more accurate but even that has substantial error.

In Italy I think looking at all cause mortality rates are quite instructive.

In Italy the overall death rate is up over 20% and in Lombardy it's up 80%!

I haven't managed to find a good time series chart (didn't look that hard though).

[Dirk]

Italy, updated

• Active cases: 57.521 (+3.491)
• Deaths: 7.503 (+683)
• Recovered: 9.362 (+1.036)
• Intensive care: 3.489 (+93)

Total cases: 74.386 (+5.210, +7,5%)

Yesterday's update:

Spoiler:

Subject: Semi-OT: Coronavirus (COVID-19) Discussion Thread V (Read Post 1 & FAQ)

Italy update

• Active cases: 54.030 (+3.612)
• Deaths: 6.820 (+743)
• Healed: 8.326 (+894)
• Intensive care: 3.396 (+192)

Total cases: 69.176 (+5.249, +8,2%)

So after a "bad" day this is semi-encouraging. If they can keep this up they should be able to get their hospitals back under control at some point.

They haven't seen a steep decline in numbers. While you can see some decline, it is definitely nothing that really boosts their morale.

They will hit 8.000 deaths in tomorrow's update. In Italy, on average over the last 5 years, there are 8.000 deaths from flu... (another stat for anyone who is in denial).

More perverse, the Head of the Civil Protection has symptoms. I noticed this guy was doing all the press conferences. He missed this update.
https://www.aa.com.tr/en/europe/fears-over-health-of-italys-covid-19-point-man-/1779260

[OkcSinceSGA]

Read on Twitter

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[LKN]

Italy, updated

• Active cases: 57.521 (+3.491)
• Deaths: 7.503 (+683)
• Recovered: 9.362 (+1.036)
• Intensive care: 3.489 (+93)

Total cases: 74.386 (+5.210, +7,5%)

Yesterday's update:

Spoiler:

Subject: Semi-OT: Coronavirus (COVID-19) Discussion Thread V (Read Post 1 & FAQ)

So after a "bad" day this is semi-encouraging. If they can keep this up they should be able to get their hospitals back under control at some point.

They haven't seen a steep decline in numbers. While you can see some decline, it is definitely nothing that really boosts their morale.

They will hit 8.000 deaths in tomorrow's update. In Italy, on average over the last 5 years, there are 8.000 deaths from flu... (another stat for anyone who is in denial).

More perverse, the Head of the Civil Protection has symptoms. I noticed this guy was doing all the press conferences. He missed this update.
https://www.aa.com.tr/en/europe/fears-over-health-of-italys-covid-19-point-man-/1779260

Fair - honestly we'd need to see their hospitalization rates... the only way to get this under control is to get those to decrease.

I mis-spoke... even a steady state with overloaded hospitals is terrible.

[LKN]

Read on Twitter

?s=20

[NoDopeOnSundays]

at this point you better hope you live in a state where the governor is taking this seriously as we are being led by a rudderless ship federally.

I'm not even sure that will help much, unfortunately. If California hypothetically handles the crisis well but Arizona goes full 'live free or die, seriously, we mean it' what's to stop asymptomatic residents of AZ who care carriers of the virus from crossing over to CA to find safety? (To be clear, I'm not saying AZ is handling it poorly, just a quick border state to name for this example)

Coordination is important and the restrictions have to be consistent across the board. If some states are inconvenienced because they aren't hard-hit yet have to deal with NY-level restrictions then they should consider themselves fortunate for being bored rather than watching neighbors and relatives fight for their lives.

A federal mandate that all people in public and work spaces wear masks to contain interstate spread. People will quickly ostracize those who don't follow the law, and they can make it a fine for not abiding.

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[Slacktard]

at this point you better hope you live in a state where the governor is taking this seriously as we are being led by a rudderless ship federally.

I'm not even sure that will help much, unfortunately. If California hypothetically handles the crisis well but Arizona goes full 'live free or die, seriously, we mean it' what's to stop asymptomatic residents of AZ who care carriers of the virus from crossing over to CA to find safety? (To be clear, I'm not saying AZ is handling it poorly, just a quick border state to name for this example)

Coordination is important and the restrictions have to be consistent across the board. If some states are inconvenienced because they aren't hard-hit yet have to deal with NY-level restrictions then they should consider themselves fortunate for being bored rather than watching neighbors and relatives fight for their lives.

A federal mandate that all people in public and work spaces wear masks to contain interstate spread. People will quickly ostracize those who don't follow the law, and they can make it a fine for not abiding.

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ok. But if masks are being rationed for medical workers how are you going to have masks for hundreds of millions of workers?

[LKN]

Amazing photograph

[OkcSinceSGA]

Read on Twitter

Lmao

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[zimpy27]

Read on Twitter

Lmao

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Caused by moronavirus

[NoDopeOnSundays]

I'm not even sure that will help much, unfortunately. If California hypothetically handles the crisis well but Arizona goes full 'live free or die, seriously, we mean it' what's to stop asymptomatic residents of AZ who care carriers of the virus from crossing over to CA to find safety? (To be clear, I'm not saying AZ is handling it poorly, just a quick border state to name for this example)

Coordination is important and the restrictions have to be consistent across the board. If some states are inconvenienced because they aren't hard-hit yet have to deal with NY-level restrictions then they should consider themselves fortunate for being bored rather than watching neighbors and relatives fight for their lives.

A federal mandate that all people in public and work spaces wear masks to contain interstate spread. People will quickly ostracize those who don't follow the law, and they can make it a fine for not abiding.

Sent from my Pixel 3 XL using RealGM mobile app

ok. But if masks are being rationed for medical workers how are you going to have masks for hundreds of millions of workers?

If we're talking 2-3 months from now the production of masks should be increased around the world. Also, the use of cloth masks to stop droplets when someone sneezes or coughs would do well to slow the spread of the virus if the majority of people wore them. It's not about protecting yourself from the virus, it's about stopping asymptomatic carriers from spreading it or people who think they just have allergies.


Leave the N95 masks to Healthcare workers, push the public to wearing masks as a whole and the spread would be contained. We see the example of this in Asia, where they wear masks of all types from homemade sewn together masks to medical masks.





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[LKN]

Louisiana is up to 1,795 infections and 65 deaths. That's a fatality rate of 3.6%.... could be big trouble there.

I have a feeling some of these southern metros could get really bad.

[madmaxmedia]

COVID-19 has had such an enormous impact on the world and country, I forget that at the end of FEBRUARY, there were only 15 confirmed cases in the USA, and only 1 American death was officially attributed to COVID-19.

We're now at 61,00 confirmed cases and 841 deaths (and both rapidly rising), and we're just 3 1/2 weeks into MARCH.

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/03/how-many-americans-are-sick-lost-february/608521/

[Sedale Threatt]

Hopefully, the NBA was able to shut down quick enough. The huge outbreak in Northern Italy appears to have stemmed from a soccer match (now being called "Game Zero"), with around 1/3 of the population of one team's town attending in Milan, returning home and boom.

“I’m sure that 40,000 people hugging and kissing each other while standing a centimeter apart — four times, because Atalanta scored four goals (the final result was 4-1) — was definitely a huge accelerator for contagion,” Lorini told The Associated Press on Wednesday.

https://www.startribune.com/game-zero-spread-of-virus-linked-to-champions-league-match/569092442/

[Capn'O]

Don't like these graphs, too much error in testing variance.

If they did a graph based on deaths rather than cases then it'd be more accurate but even that has substantial error.

Yeah - I just read an article that quoted some of Italy's health officials and they basically acknowledged that they can only test the most severe cases. Similar to USA up until recently in some areas and continuing in others. which is why Italy's death rate is so high. Likewise, US positive cases have been raising so dramatically due to testing capacity. Many existing cases undetected prior... and still.

There's really no way to know the extent of who has it. Hence... stay put as much as you can.

[madmaxmedia]

Hopefully, the NBA was able to shut down quick enough. The huge outbreak in Northern Italy appears to have stemmed from a soccer match (now being called "Game Zero"), with around 1/3 of the population of one team's town attending in Milan, returning home and boom.

“I’m sure that 40,000 people hugging and kissing each other while standing a centimeter apart — four times, because Atalanta scored four goals (the final result was 4-1) — was definitely a huge accelerator for contagion,” Lorini told The Associated Press on Wednesday.

https://www.startribune.com/game-zero-spread-of-virus-linked-to-champions-league-match/569092442/

So many large events and mass gatherings have happened all over the world since that game on Feb. 19, we won't know for awhile (if ever) which ones may have also been a huge accelerator for contagion.