Coronavirus

[kyrv]

We're hoping the curve flattens overhere in the next 5-7 days. Stay safe peeps.
The government might even tighten social distancing and most people are fine with it. We have diverging opinions but the vast majority are civil.

Good luck.

When this started i read one article where the scientist said in their model, if each person infects two people, the cases will double every six days. The states I have been following, have been doubling every 3 days or so, like doubling twice in one week - ouch.

More sobering is that of course not everyone is tested so the actual cases most likely has to be way higher. I read the other day even still in one county you could get drive thru tested ONLY if you had symptoms AND were in a high risk group. That's really limiting of course.

Honestly, and maybe I watch too many sci-fi movies, I think we very lucky that the vast majority of people don't need to be hospitalized and the death rate is 'low'.

Some tough decisions will have to be made, well some already have been made. The world economy I don't think can just take a year off. Does someone have the numbers, are shelter in place orders, are they flattening the curve? The states I look at, they aren't at all. I guess we can assume it would be even worse.

I don't think there are easy answers for Governors or country leaders. I do think the scientists warned the world. I was shocked when the US let people in from China, first case was like a Washington state man who had been to China. Not sure why he wasn't quarantined. I suppose there will be tons of hard lessons learned from this.

Belarus I think is still playing football, major kudos to them hope they can keep going. Australia kept it going for a while and managed to finish the women's season.

I don't know. Be safe everyone.

There is a theory a cluster of our Madrid infections came from a Champions League game between one of the Madrid teams & AC Milán in Milán.

Dang that's a shame, I was glad at the time they were going to try and continue but seems like that was a very bad decision, I do remember reading comments that a lot of players were very upset about being guineau pigs. Which, generally players, I mean they want to play, so when players don't think it's safe, I don't take that lightly.

[AKfanatic]

Just to push back on disinformation that’s being put forward here in order to defend the indefensible

Read on Twitter

There are numerous quotes from Republican Governors of this happening. It’s not some mean Dem that’s asking for everything. This IS a US federal government demanding fealty, demanding that States go along with the preferred narrative of those in charge in order to receive the help that their citizens deserve. This is a government choosing who deserves aid based on politics and a loyalty test.

Allowing disinformation without pushback, be it on the News, from the White House, or on a message board is a dangerous thing.



I’ll end it there.

I wish all of you the best in these times. I hope your families, friends, neighbors, and loved ones in general come through these difficult times safe and with a new knowledge as to what is truly important in their lives.

Take care Bulls fans, see you on the other side of this.

[Chi town]

Gates with what the timeline looks like. Finally, a forward thinking voice that is being realistic. Some great points in here.

[Chi town]

Watch on YouTube

[Dresden]

Trump doesn’t hand out medical supplies. Start by understanding the role of the federal government.

MI governor wants special favors from Trump and then whines when she doesn’t get them, acting entitled. There’s 50 states that need equipment.

And it’s convenient that the governor can just make an unsubstantiated claim that “WH is telling vendors to withhold supplies” that nobody even questions whether is true. It could have been totally made up, and probably was.

What special favors did she ask from Trump? I'm genuinely curious.

As far as the bolded, due diligence should definitely be done but what would be the point in lying for something like that? It can easily be proven false if it is a false claim

There's 50 states that need medical equipment with a finite supply that the federal government doesn't control.

She wanted Trump's help getting medical equipment that is under unprecedented demand directed to her state specifically, despite the fact that there are shortages everywhere.

I'm sorry, that still doesn't excuse the fact that he specifically alluded to her supposed lack of "being nice" to him as a reason why her calls might be ignored.

[Dez]

Once again we had f***ing idiots on the beaches here yesterday in Australia until police showed up and told them to f*** off.

I'm not one for gun violence but in this circumstance I would've turned a blind eye, the cops should at least be allowed to pepper spray the f*** out of these selfish campaigners.

It's not only a lack of respect and consideration for other people but a massive f*** you to the medical professionals working their asses into the ground because of these selfish scummy people refuse to do what's necessary to protect us all.

It's disgusting.

It's not f***ing hard to stay home.

[Jimako10]

Thanks! And yes, I believe many of us will catch it. If you are young and healthy I believe it will be just a mild/severe flu and you will get through it...No reason to panic IMHO.

Doctors told us to get home and dont leave by any means...And here we are...

Miss my kids and my daily routine but to be honest I think this has been very good for my marriage. We were a bit bored and tired of each other lately and spending time with my wife again with no kids shouting and running around constantly is being super positive.

To tell you the truth, I believe many more people than reported have already got it. or had it. Yes I understand it kills people, but so do alot of other things.

Its hard for me to find numbers that work. On one hand you got the death tolls, and on another you have the cases reported. Then you got the numbers of people who do not show any symptoms, some people just get a light cold.

At this point knowone knows so precautions are always good, but these prcautions are also going to hurt many more people than would normally be hurt by the virus alone even at its worst death rate % whitch is likely exagerated do to limited testing do to its availability.

How many of you personaly know people who have this virus and are in critical condition?

I read an article yesterday on either West Nile or Zika saying that initially, they thought that a very high percentage of people had severe symptoms. Once they had an antibody test and did a population study, they figured that millions of people were touched by it and had symptoms so minor they didn't know it.

Trying to find the link now.

Regardless, the data out there simply doesn't add up which means that some percentage of the data being published is incorrect. This is either a slow spreading, deadly disease that few people get or a rapid spreading one that few people have super severe symptoms from.

I can't speak for all hospitals, but the one I work for has a process where if a patient shows up in the ER with mild/minor symptoms, it's likely they get sent home to quarantine without a covid test. First, the ER doc will apply for the test in IDPH, but IDPH currently has strict conditions for approval, basically if you are having acute respiratory distress/pneumonia, or if you are part of a cluster like a retirement home, otherwise you get rejected. If the doctor feels your symptoms are severe enough to warrant being admitted to the hospital, then you are ordered a covid test from the hospital lab (not IDPH).

My guess is that there is small percentage of patients that are actually positive and being sent home to quarantine without a test being done. I can tell you that there are not enough hospital supplies/test kits to go around and test everyone with a cough. They are being conserved for ones that really need it (elderly, immunocompromised, cancer patients, etc.) because nobody really knows how big the surge is going to be in the very near future.

[Habs72]

Thats how Indian officials are supervising quarantee violators.

https://m.facebook.com/watch/?v=217772559334558&_rdr

[dumbell78]

Once again we had f***ing idiots on the beaches here yesterday in Australia until police showed up and told them to f*** off.

I'm not one for gun violence but in this circumstance I would've turned a blind eye, the cops should at least be allowed to pepper spray the f*** out of these selfish campaigners.

It's not only a lack of respect and consideration for other people but a massive f*** you to the medical professionals working their asses into the ground because of these selfish scummy people refuse to do what's necessary to protect us all.

It's disgusting.

It's not f***ing hard to stay home.

I mean I'm losing hope for humanity. I nothing more than to beat the $hit out of these ppl at this stage. Need some Indian coppers on the prowl.

[dougthonus]

One thing that's interesting from a financial perspective is the 401k news in the stimulus package.

Here is a random link describing it, I didn't read it in detail and just picked one.
https://fortune.com/2020/03/27/401k-withdrawal-penalties-waived-retirement-accounts-loans-retirees-coronavirus-stimulus-package-cares-act-relief-bill/

Effectively, you will be able to pull from your 401k up to 100k without penalty and no tax liability. You have to pay it back within 3 years otherwise you have to pay taxes (though still no 10% penalty).

While I think it is a good measure in many ways allowing people to tap into money they have, it's also likely to end up really a cruel way to allow them to get money, because it is highly likely that people will be taking out at a point where the stock market is at a low value and forced to reinvest when it is at a much higher value, and while they won't pay government penalties, they will take a huge hit on the value of their retirement portfolio while doing it.

If the program is used by the masses heavily, then it will also create some downward pressure on the market (though probably unlikely to make any substantial difference). That said, I find it unlikely it will get enough participation to create a notable downward market action.

[dougthonus]

Knicks owner James Dolan tested positive for coronavirus:
https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/28966720/knicks-owner-james-dolan-tests-positive-coronavirus

[DuckIII]

One thing that's interesting from a financial perspective is the 401k news in the stimulus package.

Here is a random link describing it, I didn't read it in detail and just picked one.
https://fortune.com/2020/03/27/401k-withdrawal-penalties-waived-retirement-accounts-loans-retirees-coronavirus-stimulus-package-cares-act-relief-bill/

Effectively, you will be able to pull from your 401k up to 100k without penalty and no tax liability. You have to pay it back within 3 years otherwise you have to pay taxes (though still no 10% penalty).

While I think it is a good measure in many ways allowing people to tap into money they have, it's also likely to end up really a cruel way to allow them to get money, because it is highly likely that people will be taking out at a point where the stock market is at a low value and forced to reinvest when it is at a much higher value, and while they won't pay government penalties, they will take a huge hit on the value of their retirement portfolio while doing it.

If the program is used by the masses heavily, then it will also create some downward pressure on the market. That said, I find it unlikely it will get enough participation to create a notable downward market action.

Wow. I sure hope things don’t get so desperate that I have to do that. I understand the measure and think it’s well intended but it could have some really brutal consequences both for individuals and the market.

[Habs72]

Just watched an Australian document that was shown in TV in Finland about Coronavirus outbreak in Wuhan. Document was filmed til the end of February. It showed how brutal China’s measures in Wuhan was besides lockdown of Wuhan Providence. Police was WELDING home doors shut on people who were infected. Film showed how police was going from door to door measuring peoples temperatures and if they had fever they were violently taken away no questions asked or answered to god knows where. People dead on the street or hospital floors, hospital staff having nervous breakdowns. It was quite surreal to watch. Those death numbers cant be right in China from the picture that was painted in the document and what is happening around the world atm pretty much underlines it.

Germany officials say that they will be running out of hospital beds with the current speed infections are surfacing.

[Taikuri]

What if we all wore asks like many asian countries...

Read on Twitter

The masks I have are pretty much same material as some pieces of toilet paper. It wouldn't be so hard for the toilet paper companies to start mass producing them if countries are running low on them. I don't use masks outside but I probably should. No one here wears them so it would be too ackward I dunno. Considering this is one of the Corona hot spots of Finland it is quite strange that people don't use them.

[dougthonus]

I understand the measure and think it’s well intended but it could have some really brutal consequences both for individuals and the market.

Don't think it will impact the market any. Say worst case scenario, 50 million people took out 50k each, I think that's WAY beyond what will happen, and that's 25B. That's about 1 tenth of 1 percent of the value of the SP500. We're moving at about 3% a day on "slow" days in the last 3 weeks.

That said, it can create additional pressure for broker dealers whom ahve to have a certain amount of capital on hand, and if they have to hand out cash, will need to sell out additional resources to maintain that capital. That said, again, probably not enough to push the market even with those impacts as well.

I do think it will really hurt individuals, though I agree with you, I think the measure is well intended and makes sense to do, but I hope people don't take advantage of it unless it is a last resort. That said, theoretically, the market always prices in all information, so there shouldn't be a huge upswing later, but we know from practical measures that things like this don't actually work that way frequently.

I do think it's fascinating though, because the market was probably legitimately overvalued by 30%. Even today, it's trading at probably a PE ratio of 19 using trailing 12 month earnings which don't yet show coronavirus impact:

https://www.multpl.com/s-p-500-pe-ratio

If you look at the value of the market now, it would be high relative to historical levels prior to taking into account coronavirus impact. PE ratio obviously isn't a perfect indicator, and it's a really poor indicator relative to a single stock, because a single stock can have amazing growth rate, but we know the US economy is only growing at 2-3% a year, so it isn't going to have huge growth.

Historically the risk of the market means you should get a 5-6% return better than a safe investment like a treasury bond, since treasury yields are less htan 1% right now, a forward PE of 20 makes sense. No one knows the forward PE obviously, but we expect the forward earnings to be dramatically less than past earnings, and we're currently at a 19-20 based on past earnings. This single metric would say the risk/reward ratio of the stock market isn't very good right now (assuming you believe that forward earnings will drop, which seems so likely we could probably state it as a fact).

Granted, markets don't behave rationally.

[molepharmer]

from the GB coronavirus thread - possibly good news on the horizon

Read on Twitter

and here's bit of background on the use of convalescent plasma and FDA approval/guidelines
https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2020/03/plasma-blood-covid-19-survivors/609007/

[Dresden]

Just watched an Australian document that was shown in TV in Finland about Coronavirus outbreak in Wuhan. Document was filmed til the end of February. It showed how brutal China’s measures in Wuhan was besides lockdown of Wuhan Providence. Police was WELDING home doors shut on people who were infected. Film showed how police was going from door to door measuring peoples temperatures and if they had fever they were violently taken away no questions asked or answered to god knows where. People dead on the street or hospital floors, hospital staff having nervous breakdowns. It was quite surreal to watch. Those death numbers cant be right in China from the picture that was painted in the document and what is happening around the world atm pretty much underlines it.

Germany officials say that they will be running out of hospital beds with the current speed infections are surfacing.

They took people who were ill from their homes so they wouldn't infect family members, and took them to special hospitals dedicated to Corona patients. That's actually a really wise move, although it's very hard psychologically to see you ill family member taken away. But it saved lives.

Also, I think quarantining regions is not a bad approach either. It worked in Wuhan. They pulled drivers over who were leaving the area and checked their body temps. Those with fevers had to turn back. Draconian to be sure, but these are extraordinary times.

[Chi town]

Just watched an Australian document that was shown in TV in Finland about Coronavirus outbreak in Wuhan. Document was filmed til the end of February. It showed how brutal China’s measures in Wuhan was besides lockdown of Wuhan Providence. Police was WELDING home doors shut on people who were infected. Film showed how police was going from door to door measuring peoples temperatures and if they had fever they were violently taken away no questions asked or answered to god knows where. People dead on the street or hospital floors, hospital staff having nervous breakdowns. It was quite surreal to watch. Those death numbers cant be right in China from the picture that was painted in the document and what is happening around the world atm pretty much underlines it.

Germany officials say that they will be running out of hospital beds with the current speed infections are surfacing.

I wouldn’t be surprised if China has 1M deaths by now. What they have done to cover this up is catostrophic to the world.

If the virus does live in heat temps then 3rd world countries are going to be devastated in the next 3 months.

[Chi town]

Just watched an Australian document that was shown in TV in Finland about Coronavirus outbreak in Wuhan. Document was filmed til the end of February. It showed how brutal China’s measures in Wuhan was besides lockdown of Wuhan Providence. Police was WELDING home doors shut on people who were infected. Film showed how police was going from door to door measuring peoples temperatures and if they had fever they were violently taken away no questions asked or answered to god knows where. People dead on the street or hospital floors, hospital staff having nervous breakdowns. It was quite surreal to watch. Those death numbers cant be right in China from the picture that was painted in the document and what is happening around the world atm pretty much underlines it.

Germany officials say that they will be running out of hospital beds with the current speed infections are surfacing.

Can you post the link?

[dougthonus]

I wouldn’t be surprised if China has 1M deaths by now. What they have done to cover this up is catostrophic to the world.

All reports are that they basically shut down everything, there's very little reason, IMO, to believe that they're having a massive epidemic given how they treated it. We know to some extent this is true from satellite photos showing all the smog gone and the factories shut down.

While I doubt their counts are accurate, there's very little reason to believe that they have 1M deaths and something like 100 million cases to create that many deaths.