Coronavirus

[Habs72]

Just watched an Australian document that was shown in TV in Finland about Coronavirus outbreak in Wuhan. Document was filmed til the end of February. It showed how brutal China’s measures in Wuhan was besides lockdown of Wuhan Providence. Police was WELDING home doors shut on people who were infected. Film showed how police was going from door to door measuring peoples temperatures and if they had fever they were violently taken away no questions asked or answered to god knows where. People dead on the street or hospital floors, hospital staff having nervous breakdowns. It was quite surreal to watch. Those death numbers cant be right in China from the picture that was painted in the document and what is happening around the world atm pretty much underlines it.

Germany officials say that they will be running out of hospital beds with the current speed infections are surfacing.

Can you post the link?

https://www.faz.net/aktuell/wirtschaft/coronavirus-in-deutschland-rki-chef-lothar-wieler-im-interview-16701206.html

[BigUps]

How do we mimic South Korea?

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[robert76]

What if we all wore asks like many asian countries...

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The masks I have are pretty much same material as some pieces of toilet paper. It wouldn't be so hard for the toilet paper companies to start mass producing them if countries are running low on them. I don't use masks outside but I probably should. No one here wears them so it would be too ackward I dunno. Considering this is one of the Corona hot spots of Finland it is quite strange that people don't use them.

If you ask me, safety beats awkwardness right now. Let them stare at you, what do you care?

[Dresden]

A good article detailing why the US is so far behind in testing:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/28/us/testing-coronavirus-pandemic.html?action=click&module=Spotlight&pgtype=Homepage

“Testing is the crack that split apart the rest of the response, when it should have tied everything together,” said Dr. Nahid Bhadelia, ​the medical director of the Special Pathogens Unit at Boston University School of Medicine. “It seeps into every other aspect of our response, touches all of us,” she said. “The delay of the testing has impacted the response across the board.”

[disoblige]

I'm with coldfish--the Chinese numbers are pure and utter rubbish:

1.) They changed the methodology several times, at some points excluding patients that showed no symptoms, then including them, then excluding them again... they changed how they counted so many times, the odds are, the final numbers are pure BS.

2.) There was a guy who ran the math the first month the infection was spreading and was almost 99% certain that either: a.) they are goal-seeking the reported number in excel or b.) the reported number is purely a function of how many people they can test in a day. If you remember, at one point the Chinese sent the army and police and told people to stay home because the hospitals were over capacity already. And if they caught you outside with symptoms, they sent you to one of the new makeshift 'hospitals', which were more detention facilities that had bare minimums of actual medical equipment. So, people stayed home, even when sick, and never got to a hospital because if they caught you before you got there, off you were to a place where if you didn't have it already, you'd definitely get it.

3.) The Chinese donated hundreds of thousands of test kits to multiple countries in Europe. Other countries bought much more; so, here's what's the feedback on the Chinese tests is--utter, unusable rubbish. The Czechs said they were getting 80% false negatives. The Spanish, 70%. Both are pissed off because a test with that kind of error rate is more dangerous than not taking a test at all, because you're releasing sick people back into the population. There were stories that Chinese doctors stopped using tests because they were so inaccurate, and instead started doing X-rays, where and when available, because you could see the pneumonia in the lungs clearly, or blood tests. But you can't screen that many people that way.

So, if I had to guess, the Chinese probably had 3-4 times as many infected, at the minimum, as reported. Deaths, who knows. And that was with riot police quarantining entire neighborhoods where there were cases. As in nobody leaves, period. At the peak, they had 700M people under quarantine for weeks.

In the USA, the measures are nowhere near as draconian... yet. The US made the same mistake the Chinese did early on--when they had a large outbreak, they let 5M citizens spread out from Wuhan for the Chinese New Year--this is where the rest of the world got it from. Same with NY--they probably have many more cases than reported, but they let hundreds of thousands of people from the most affected counties flee upstate, to NJ, NC and FL. Since I'm in FL--the reports were there were 90 full flights a day arriving to FL from NY every day for weeks, trying to escape. That's 20K+ people a day. The FL governor asked them to self-quarantine... to which the people interviewed upon arrival responded exactly how you would expect--FuOFF.

Government's image is more important than their citizen's life.

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[MrSparkle]

How do we mimic South Korea?

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WAY too late.

I think the question is how do we not end up with an Italy situation on the scale of the much larger US.

(Hint: take the POTUS out of the captain's seat)

I think that's too late too, now that pretty much every city and corn field in the United States is at risk, and adequate testing is still weeks/months away.

[Dresden]

How are you feeling, Mr. Sparkle?

[dougthonus]

I think the question is how do we not end up with an Italy situation on the scale of the much larger US.

(Hint: take the POTUS out of the captain's seat)

I think that's too late too, now that pretty much every city and corn field in the United States is at risk, and adequate testing is still weeks/months away.

The US has 6x the population of Italy, so on a per capita basis, we're still no where near as bad off as they are. NY is the only place in the US right now that really has a severe problem, and my guess is almost the entire country is social distancing heavily now, so you probably won't see a NY like spread elsewhere while we're in this mode.

The question is how do we get out of this mode and get back to work? Some of the answers are obvious:
1: Have enough tests that everyone can be tested immediately.
2: Everyone who works in public has to wear a mask and primarily use washable masks.
3: Start collecting as much plasma as possible from patients. Make it mandatory to donate plasma if you test positive after you recover.
4: Ramp up your supply of anti-virals.

You do those things, and you can probably control the spread and manage the treatment radically better. I don't know if that's the whole answer, but if you do those things you can probably keep this under control enough to get much closer to normal life.

[Dresden]

I think also everyone will need to practice social distancing at work as much as possible as well. And follow other protocol, such as having employees wash their hands upon entering the workplace, extra custodial staff to do periodic disinfecting of the workplace, perhaps checking everyone's temperature before they are allowed to work their shifts, etc., etc. If these things are followed, there is no reason that many workplaces could not function in a relatively safe manner. The bigger risk is probably getting to and from work- anyone taking public transportation is going to be exposed. Not sure how to mitigate that, other mandate wearing of masks and gloves.

Whatever we do, we are going to need a lot more PPE in the future, as well as sanitizer.

[Dresden]

I'm with coldfish--the Chinese numbers are pure and utter rubbish:

1.) They changed the methodology several times, at some points excluding patients that showed no symptoms, then including them, then excluding them again... they changed how they counted so many times, the odds are, the final numbers are pure BS.

2.) There was a guy who ran the math the first month the infection was spreading and was almost 99% certain that either: a.) they are goal-seeking the reported number in excel or b.) the reported number is purely a function of how many people they can test in a day. If you remember, at one point the Chinese sent the army and police and told people to stay home because the hospitals were over capacity already. And if they caught you outside with symptoms, they sent you to one of the new makeshift 'hospitals', which were more detention facilities that had bare minimums of actual medical equipment. So, people stayed home, even when sick, and never got to a hospital because if they caught you before you got there, off you were to a place where if you didn't have it already, you'd definitely get it.

3.) The Chinese donated hundreds of thousands of test kits to multiple countries in Europe. Other countries bought much more; so, here's what's the feedback on the Chinese tests is--utter, unusable rubbish. The Czechs said they were getting 80% false negatives. The Spanish, 70%. Both are pissed off because a test with that kind of error rate is more dangerous than not taking a test at all, because you're releasing sick people back into the population. There were stories that Chinese doctors stopped using tests because they were so inaccurate, and instead started doing X-rays, where and when available, because you could see the pneumonia in the lungs clearly, or blood tests. But you can't screen that many people that way.

So, if I had to guess, the Chinese probably had 3-4 times as many infected, at the minimum, as reported. Deaths, who knows. And that was with riot police quarantining entire neighborhoods where there were cases. As in nobody leaves, period. At the peak, they had 700M people under quarantine for weeks.

In the USA, the measures are nowhere near as draconian... yet. The US made the same mistake the Chinese did early on--when they had a large outbreak, they let 5M citizens spread out from Wuhan for the Chinese New Year--this is where the rest of the world got it from. Same with NY--they probably have many more cases than reported, but they let hundreds of thousands of people from the most affected counties flee upstate, to NJ, NC and FL. Since I'm in FL--the reports were there were 90 full flights a day arriving to FL from NY every day for weeks, trying to escape. That's 20K+ people a day. The FL governor asked them to self-quarantine... to which the people interviewed upon arrival responded exactly how you would expect--FuOFF.

Government's image is more important than their citizen's life.

Read on Twitter

Watch on YouTube

;feature=emb_logo

I don't doubt that China is not being honest about it's infection rates or death totals, but to assume that the numbers the person in this video are forecasting are accurate also has to be taken with a grain of salt. Couldn't the incinerators be used for things other than burning corpses? Such as disposing of infected medical waste, used PPE, general trash from the population, many of whom are or were infected? It seem a stretch to extrapolate from the number of incinerators to calculate a death total.

Himalaya Global- what exactly is this source? We know that China and Tibet are practically at war- could this be from a source with an interest in harming China's image?

[coldfish]

I'm with coldfish--the Chinese numbers are pure and utter rubbish:

1.) They changed the methodology several times, at some points excluding patients that showed no symptoms, then including them, then excluding them again... they changed how they counted so many times, the odds are, the final numbers are pure BS.

2.) There was a guy who ran the math the first month the infection was spreading and was almost 99% certain that either: a.) they are goal-seeking the reported number in excel or b.) the reported number is purely a function of how many people they can test in a day. If you remember, at one point the Chinese sent the army and police and told people to stay home because the hospitals were over capacity already. And if they caught you outside with symptoms, they sent you to one of the new makeshift 'hospitals', which were more detention facilities that had bare minimums of actual medical equipment. So, people stayed home, even when sick, and never got to a hospital because if they caught you before you got there, off you were to a place where if you didn't have it already, you'd definitely get it.

3.) The Chinese donated hundreds of thousands of test kits to multiple countries in Europe. Other countries bought much more; so, here's what's the feedback on the Chinese tests is--utter, unusable rubbish. The Czechs said they were getting 80% false negatives. The Spanish, 70%. Both are pissed off because a test with that kind of error rate is more dangerous than not taking a test at all, because you're releasing sick people back into the population. There were stories that Chinese doctors stopped using tests because they were so inaccurate, and instead started doing X-rays, where and when available, because you could see the pneumonia in the lungs clearly, or blood tests. But you can't screen that many people that way.

So, if I had to guess, the Chinese probably had 3-4 times as many infected, at the minimum, as reported. Deaths, who knows. And that was with riot police quarantining entire neighborhoods where there were cases. As in nobody leaves, period. At the peak, they had 700M people under quarantine for weeks.

In the USA, the measures are nowhere near as draconian... yet. The US made the same mistake the Chinese did early on--when they had a large outbreak, they let 5M citizens spread out from Wuhan for the Chinese New Year--this is where the rest of the world got it from. Same with NY--they probably have many more cases than reported, but they let hundreds of thousands of people from the most affected counties flee upstate, to NJ, NC and FL. Since I'm in FL--the reports were there were 90 full flights a day arriving to FL from NY every day for weeks, trying to escape. That's 20K+ people a day. The FL governor asked them to self-quarantine... to which the people interviewed upon arrival responded exactly how you would expect--FuOFF.

Government's image is more important than their citizen's life.

Read on Twitter

Watch on YouTube

;feature=emb_logo

I don't doubt that China is not being honest about it's infection rates or death totals, but to assume that the numbers the person in this video are forecasting are accurate also has to be taken with a grain of salt. Couldn't the incinerators be used for things other than burning corpses? Such as disposing of infected medical waste, used PPE, general trash from the population, many of whom are or were infected? It seem a stretch to extrapolate from the number of incinerators to calculate a death total.

Himalaya Global- what exactly is this source? We know that China and Tibet are practically at war- could this be from a source with an interest in harming China's image?

China let this virus run almost unimpeded in Hubei province for two months. That province has a population roughly that of Italy. Italy is going to end up with 15 to 20 thousand deaths. Perhaps more given that a lot of the dead in Italy aren't tested. China said that 2 thousand died in Hubei.

2000 people out of a province of 60 million is 0.0033%.

They are probably lying by a LOT. If they lost 0.1%, that would be 60,000 dead.

[Dresden]

China let this virus run almost unimpeded in Hubei province for two months. That province has a population roughly that of Italy. Italy is going to end up with 15 to 20 thousand deaths. Perhaps more given that a lot of the dead in Italy aren't tested. China said that 2 thousand died in Hubei.

2000 people out of a province of 60 million is 0.0033%.

They are probably lying by a LOT. If they lost 0.1%, that would be 60,000 dead.

Could be. But did they let it run unimpeded for 2 months? My understanding is that they took pretty harsh measures fairly early.

[HomoSapien]

I really recommend watching this. It's hands down the best video I've seen on the subject and I learned a TON from it.

Watch on YouTube

[HomoSapien]

There's 50 states that need medical equipment with a finite supply that the federal government doesn't control.

She wanted Trump's help getting medical equipment that is under unprecedented demand directed to her state specifically, despite the fact that there are shortages everywhere.

Your point earlier was that she essentially didn't deserve the help because she criticized him. That's just an asinine conclusion. What kind of leadership is that?

[Chi town]

How do we mimic South Korea?

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We go on a national shut down for 3 weeks and then a partial return for 3 weeks after that. This is basically what Bill Gates is saying.

[Chi town]

I really recommend watching this. It's hands down the best video I've seen on the subject and I learned a TON from it.

Watch on YouTube

Wipe it off like glitter. My wife watched this before hitting the store first thing yesterday. Took 3 hours to shop, sanitize, and put away.

[dumbell78]

I don't trust 99% of what China is reporting. These guys are selling faulty tests and used medical masks to the world as we speak. They are rolling out the propaganda machine at this point and diverting attention.

[Chi town]

China let this virus run almost unimpeded in Hubei province for two months. That province has a population roughly that of Italy. Italy is going to end up with 15 to 20 thousand deaths. Perhaps more given that a lot of the dead in Italy aren't tested. China said that 2 thousand died in Hubei.

2000 people out of a province of 60 million is 0.0033%.

They are probably lying by a LOT. If they lost 0.1%, that would be 60,000 dead.

Could be. But did they let it run unimpeded for 2 months? My understanding is that they took pretty harsh measures fairly early.

They covered it up for the first two months until they couldn’t anymore.

[Chi town]

I don't trust 99% of what China is reporting. These guys are selling faulty tests and used medical masks to the world as we speak. They are rolling out the propaganda machine at this point and diverting attention.

Exactly. It’s in humane. Devastating.

[transplant]

I would like to take this opportunity to thank the habanero pepper.

I use these a lot for various purposes. I wear latex gloves when I work with them. I'm using those same gloves now when I go to the stores. I don't have that many so I disinfect them and then re-use. Who'da thunk it.