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lakerz12 wrote:Why aren't you guys talking more about this potential levelling out of deaths in the U.S.?
Of course you can cast doubts on it but you can also cast doubts on most of the pessimistic opinions that get posted, also.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
lakerz12 wrote:Why aren't you guys talking more about this potential levelling out of deaths in the U.S.?
Of course you can cast doubts on it but you can also cast doubts on most of the pessimistic opinions that get posted, also.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
Ayt wrote:Triples333 wrote:Xpressure wrote:2600+ deaths in just 1 month in the US alone since February 29th, and there are still people in denial saying Covid-19 shouldn't be taken seriously because it's just a flu.
While Covid is clearly more dangerous to the elderly and those with pre-existing conditions (and not done spreading), you need to bear in mind that ~50,000 flu deaths in the United States in any given year has become very standard. And that is with widespread vaccinations.
Unpopular take: The more we know about this, the more apparent it is that the short term "end-game" before we get a vaccine needs to be to continue/ramp up isolation to all those at the highest risk thresholds (be it age or pre-existing conditions), while continuing to ramp up test kits and equipment production. The fact of the matter is that for young, healhty children+adults, this is not particularly dangerous what so ever (will the odd 1 in 2,000 healthy, young person become seriously ill and potentially die? Sure. But that does not warrant a complete shutdown for the foreseeable future IMO). Those are the people who will need to get back to work/life sooner than later.
Now, this protocol is much easier said than done as so many who qualify in the danger zones are such vital members of all walks of society, but it does indeed seem like this will be the play by mid-April/May.
We need to also bear in mind that the true positive rate for those who have been infected (and are recovering or have already recovered) in the U.S. alone is VERY likely already in the millions.
For the portion in bold, what do you consider "young, healthy children+adults" and what do you consider "particularly dangerous?" How would you factor in underlying conditions that make people more susceptible to hospitalization? How would you limit exposure for people who don't fit into that group?
RoLo wrote:lakerz12 wrote:Why aren't you guys talking more about this potential levelling out of deaths in the U.S.?
Of course you can cast doubts on it but you can also cast doubts on most of the pessimistic opinions that get posted, also.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
deaths lag. average death is 9-15 days after first symptoms. as long as cases are going up and up u really think deaths are going down? u that stupid? just like Italys death will continue to go up or stay around 800. doesnt mean they arent getting better.
LKN wrote:It's pretty funny how many overweight/obese people I see on my personal FB feed posting that "COVID-19 is only dangerous to the elderly or those with pre-existing health issues".
I'm a nice guy - so I haven't been telling them the bad news.
lakerz12 wrote:Why aren't you guys talking more about this potential levelling out of deaths in the U.S.?
Of course you can cast doubts on it but you can also cast doubts on most of the pessimistic opinions that get posted, also.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
Doug_12 wrote:Ayt wrote:Triples333 wrote:While Covid is clearly more dangerous to the elderly and those with pre-existing conditions (and not done spreading), you need to bear in mind that ~50,000 flu deaths in the United States in any given year has become very standard. And that is with widespread vaccinations.
Unpopular take: The more we know about this, the more apparent it is that the short term "end-game" before we get a vaccine needs to be to continue/ramp up isolation to all those at the highest risk thresholds (be it age or pre-existing conditions), while continuing to ramp up test kits and equipment production. The fact of the matter is that for young, healhty children+adults, this is not particularly dangerous what so ever (will the odd 1 in 2,000 healthy, young person become seriously ill and potentially die? Sure. But that does not warrant a complete shutdown for the foreseeable future IMO). Those are the people who will need to get back to work/life sooner than later.
Now, this protocol is much easier said than done as so many who qualify in the danger zones are such vital members of all walks of society, but it does indeed seem like this will be the play by mid-April/May.
We need to also bear in mind that the true positive rate for those who have been infected (and are recovering or have already recovered) in the U.S. alone is VERY likely already in the millions.
For the portion in bold, what do you consider "young, healthy children+adults" and what do you consider "particularly dangerous?" How would you factor in underlying conditions that make people more susceptible to hospitalization? How would you limit exposure for people who don't fit into that group?
Absolutely. Plus it is not 1 among 2000 young adults that become seriously ill. 1 of 2000 dies which is different and dependent highly on the available care. This number is also a result of the fact that those Young people are prioritized for ventillators as their chances for recovery are much higher.
See this:https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/03/coronavirus-young-people-hospitalized-covid-19-chart/
Between 20 and 44 years you have 2-4% chance of requiring an intensive care unit and 14-20% to require care in a hospital. I'd consider someone seriously ill if he requires regular medical attention in a hospital (instead of recovering at home w/ some high fever)...
LKN wrote:?s=20
ken6199 wrote:LKN wrote:[twt]?s=20
Feb 25 Mardi Gras. Look at New Orleans now. Someone needs to dig out those Mardi Gras videos and trace down to each individuals who appear on those video and shame them.
Mar 6th, they had to call off Rodeo half way into it. There were still people protesting it, "there are bigger things to worry about in life".
Mar 7th, Zaandam departed.
Mar 8th, LA Marathon went ahead. We need the names of those who went and got infected.
And all those thick heads who headed to Miami beach last week because "nothing stops me from living my life". Find those people, put them on national TV, interview them. Those thick heads need to live the rest of their lives in shame and regret.
Dirk wrote:ken6199 wrote:LKN wrote:?s=20
Feb 25 Mardi Gras. Look at New Orleans now. Someone needs to dig out those Mardi Gras videos and trace down to each individuals who appear on those video and shame them.
Mar 6th, they had to call off Rodeo half way into it. There were still people protesting it, "there are bigger things to worry about in life".
Mar 7th, Zaandam departed.
Mar 8th, LA Marathon went ahead. We need the names of those who went and got infected.
And all those thick heads who headed to Miami beach last week because "nothing stops me from living my life". Find those people, put them on national TV, interview them. Those thick heads need to live the rest of their lives in shame and regret.
March 21, New Yorkers gather to watch the US Navy hospital ship dock in New York City.
LKN wrote:
Isn't that today? (March 30)
Triples333 wrote:Doug_12 wrote:Ayt wrote:
For the portion in bold, what do you consider "young, healthy children+adults" and what do you consider "particularly dangerous?" How would you factor in underlying conditions that make people more susceptible to hospitalization? How would you limit exposure for people who don't fit into that group?
Absolutely. Plus it is not 1 among 2000 young adults that become seriously ill. 1 of 2000 dies which is different and dependent highly on the available care. This number is also a result of the fact that those Young people are prioritized for ventillators as their chances for recovery are much higher.
See this:https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/03/coronavirus-young-people-hospitalized-covid-19-chart/
Between 20 and 44 years you have 2-4% chance of requiring an intensive care unit and 14-20% to require care in a hospital. I'd consider someone seriously ill if he requires regular medical attention in a hospital (instead of recovering at home w/ some high fever)...
I really don't care to belabor this all day, but PLEASE understand that you are looking at the numbers of those with serious enough cases to go to the hospital in the first place (the vast majority do not), and that it includes absolutely zero information about their pre-existing conditions. It was also a miniscule data set. That data is effectively meaningless.
As the weeks/testing go on (the tests coming this week are extremely fast with immediate results), and the testing for the antibodies associated with already having the disease also become more prolific, we will have a MUCH clearer idea of what we are dealing with and how to best move forward. Within the next 30 days I expect that to occur, and we should/will also take that time to take the smartest, most efficient measures to get the country/world back on track.
Dirk wrote:LKN wrote:
Isn't that today? (March 30)
Yes, strangely typed 21.
This image is persuasive for folks to stay home at all costs
Dirk wrote:ken6199 wrote:LKN wrote:?s=20
Feb 25 Mardi Gras. Look at New Orleans now. Someone needs to dig out those Mardi Gras videos and trace down to each individuals who appear on those video and shame them.
Mar 6th, they had to call off Rodeo half way into it. There were still people protesting it, "there are bigger things to worry about in life".
Mar 7th, Zaandam departed.
Mar 8th, LA Marathon went ahead. We need the names of those who went and got infected.
And all those thick heads who headed to Miami beach last week because "nothing stops me from living my life". Find those people, put them on national TV, interview them. Those thick heads need to live the rest of their lives in shame and regret.
March 21, New Yorkers gather to watch the US Navy hospital ship dock in New York City.
LKN wrote:Isn't that today? (March 30)
