Semi-OT: Coronavirus (COVID-19) Discussion Thread VI (Don't Read Post 1 & FAQ)

[Courtside]

That's because Africa isn't on the global climate "band" where the virus lives. Look at the hardest hit areas: China, Iran, Europe, U.S. Then look at a map of the world and ask yourself what those countries have in common. They are all geographically lined up in a circle across the globe.

Edit: This is what I mean. There's a "band" around the globe where the virus is breaking out. Africa isn't in that band.

I'm also stoned atm and this is just a personal theory.

Saw a YouTube video with someone believing that certain temperature and humidity conditions are ideal for the spread. However, that band is also where most of the world's wealth is concentrated. These countries can actually do the testing.

I get that, but it doesnt pass the smell test. It's been in circulation for months so it has clearly its found its way to Africa. Where are the bodies? Forget testing. With the poor health care system in many areas on the continent, we should be seeing bodies stack up, but we're not.

To me, it clearly has reached Africa and hasnt had the same effect it's had in other countries. The reason for that goes far beyond testing.

Just thinking out loud here...

But there are probably a lower # of travelers to/from Africa than to other parts of the world, so it may just be slower or the timing is different. Yes, there is probably some connection to climate and rate of spread, but the fact that this is in parts of South America and South Asia - that are on parallel with much of Africa, means it can and will spread in these climates.

Another possibility, perhaps more remote, is that the African continent has had all sorts of outbreaks of its own and there may have been more widespread vaccinations for things like TB and Malaria, that while not exactly the same, may give the population in Africa a different kind of immune system response than those who live in countries shots for things like flu or measles are more common. Many studies are going to be done about this going forward and it will be interesting to see if they string together any sort of connections.

[Triples333]

That's because Africa isn't on the global climate "band" where the virus lives. Look at the hardest hit areas: China, Iran, Europe, U.S. Then look at a map of the world and ask yourself what those countries have in common. They are all geographically lined up in a circle across the globe.

Edit: This is what I mean. There's a "band" around the globe where the virus is breaking out. Africa isn't in that band.

I'm also stoned atm and this is just a personal theory.

Saw a YouTube video with someone believing that certain temperature and humidity conditions are ideal for the spread. However, that band is also where most of the world's wealth is concentrated. These countries can actually do the testing.

I get that, but it doesnt pass the smell test. It's been in circulation for months so it has clearly its found its way to Africa. Where are the bodies? Forget testing. With the poor health care system in many areas on the continent, we should be seeing bodies stack up, but we're not.

To me, it clearly has reached Africa and hasnt had the same effect it's had in other countries. The reason for that goes far beyond testing.

A) The Chinese and world population as a whole travels far less to Russia, Africa and South America than they do Western Europe and America.
B) They don't have anywhere close to the testing facilities or health care systems of 1st World nations. Not that the numbers are accurate anywhere, but they are clearly inaccurate there.
C) The theory has no foundation.

[mademan]

Saw a YouTube video with someone believing that certain temperature and humidity conditions are ideal for the spread. However, that band is also where most of the world's wealth is concentrated. These countries can actually do the testing.

I get that, but it doesnt pass the smell test. It's been in circulation for months so it has clearly its found its way to Africa. Where are the bodies? Forget testing. With the poor health care system in many areas on the continent, we should be seeing bodies stack up, but we're not.

To me, it clearly has reached Africa and hasnt had the same effect it's had in other countries. The reason for that goes far beyond testing.

That's because no many travel to Africa. Less activity = less spread. Look at how many flights fly between EU and US.

Also that picture doesn't mean much. Most of the economy activities sit in that band: US, EU countries, China. The one thing I am worried about is India. Nobody knows what's going on there. Not much data comes out of India, nobody is talking about it. I don't have a good feeling about it.

eh. Places like Cairo, Marrakesh, Cape Town, Luxor...etc, are tourist attractions. It wouldnt be surprising to find that thousands of infected people travelled to Africa or back home to Africa. It's had exposure for sure

[mademan]

Saw a YouTube video with someone believing that certain temperature and humidity conditions are ideal for the spread. However, that band is also where most of the world's wealth is concentrated. These countries can actually do the testing.

I get that, but it doesnt pass the smell test. It's been in circulation for months so it has clearly its found its way to Africa. Where are the bodies? Forget testing. With the poor health care system in many areas on the continent, we should be seeing bodies stack up, but we're not.

To me, it clearly has reached Africa and hasnt had the same effect it's had in other countries. The reason for that goes far beyond testing.

A) The Chinese and world population as a whole travels far less to Russia, Africa and South America than they do Western Europe and America.
B) They don't have anywhere close to the testing facilities or health care systems of 1st World nations. Not that the numbers are accurate anywhere, but they are clearly inaccurate there.
C) The theory has no foundation.

I'm not talking about testing. Im talking about bodies. Africa, as a whole, is fairly free. People would speak out if those around them were dying that often. You cant hide a pandemic in Africa like you can in China or Russia.

And with how contagious the virus is and the unlimited travel for months before we locked down, there's no way Africa wasnt exposed in large numbers.

[Dirk]

Forced to go back home. Not welcome.

India racked by greatest exodus since partition due to coronavirus

“The road seemed endless, we had no money for food and my children just took short breaks sleeping on the ground,” she said. But gritting her teeth and pushing hunger and exhaustion away, Mamta kept on walking.

It would take her six-person family almost five days on foot to make the 125-mile journey from Gurgaon, a satellite city to the capital, Delhi, to their village, Sidamai in Uttar Pradesh, as part of an exodus of millions of migrant workers and families last week unlike anything seen in India since partition.

“The only thing that kept us moving was that we had nowhere else to go,” said Mamta. “But even though we have arrived in the village we have no money for food. I don’t know how we will survive. Hunger will kill us before coronavirus does.”

“My work has totally stopped so I have no money to survive and I have not eaten since yesterday, so that is why I needed to go back,” said Rama. “But I was not the only one. The bus station was full of people like me, desperate to get out, and it was like hell.

“There were crowds and everyone was being crushed and pulling each other out of the way, there was so much violence and police were charging at us with lathis [wooden rods].”

He added: “For buses that had seats [for] 100 people, 200 people would be trying to cram in, people were sitting on top of the bus and hanging out of the windows. We were all desperate to leave because we cannot survive in Delhi under this lockdown.”

Migrant workers who have made it to their villages have often found they are no longer welcome.

In several villages in Bihar and Jharkhand, villagers put up barricades at the entry points and hung posters, warning the migrants against entering the village before a health check.

“We took this decision as outsiders’ entry to the village could put everyone’s life at risk,” said Umesh Singh, 60, a schoolteacher from the village of Baniya-Yadupur in Bihar. “This is very dangerous time and we can’t ignore this.”

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/30/india-wracked-by-greatest-exodus-since-partition-due-to-coronavirus?CMP=share_btn_tw

Over 500 Nepali migrant workers stranded on border
https://thehimalayantimes.com/nepal/over-500-nepali-migrant-workers-stranded-on-border/

“We walked for days to reach here (Darchula) after businesses closed down in India. We’re stuck as the suspension bridge for crossing over to Nepal is closed,” said Padam Dhami of Baitadi’s Purchaudi Municipality. “SSB said they would allow us to cross over, but it’s unfortunate that the Nepali side didn’t open the bridge,” he said.

Stranded Nepalis have been shouting slogans, saying, ”Open the border and take back your citizens”. They demanded that they be allowed to return home as they were trapped in the lockdown imposed by both the countries. Darchula police took a person under control after he swam across the river into Nepal this morning.

“Efforts are under way to set up quarantine by local levels and manage vehicles to bring them in,” said Poudel. He said a meeting of the High-level Coordination Committee to prevent coronavirus had already decided to rescue stranded Nepalis.

[OkcSinceSGA]

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[LKN]

Wow - there's been a major outbreak on the carrier USS Roosevelt. The Captain is pleading to allow his sailors to be quarantined on shore as the infection is accelerating among the crew (if you've ever seen how warships are laid out - most sailors bunk together in communal rooms)

https://www.sfchronicle.com/bayarea/article/Exclusive-Captain-of-aircraft-carrier-with-15167883.php

[Triples333]

I get that, but it doesnt pass the smell test. It's been in circulation for months so it has clearly its found its way to Africa. Where are the bodies? Forget testing. With the poor health care system in many areas on the continent, we should be seeing bodies stack up, but we're not.

To me, it clearly has reached Africa and hasnt had the same effect it's had in other countries. The reason for that goes far beyond testing.

A) The Chinese and world population as a whole travels far less to Russia, Africa and South America than they do Western Europe and America.
B) They don't have anywhere close to the testing facilities or health care systems of 1st World nations. Not that the numbers are accurate anywhere, but they are clearly inaccurate there.
C) The theory has no foundation.

I'm not talking about testing. Im talking about bodies. Africa, as a whole, is fairly free. People would speak out if those around them were dying that often. You cant hide a pandemic in Africa like you can in China or Russia.

And with how contagious the virus is and the unlimited travel for months before we locked down, there's no way Africa wasnt exposed in large numbers.

This doesn't do damage at anywhere near the degree you must have in your head. I am willing to bet you do not know anybody in your city (wherever that may be) who has died of Covid19. Meanwhile people die in droves in our cities every day and it's not as if we are here asking "where are the bodies!?". This virus is extremely serious, but it's not wiping out populations lol.

And again, it is there, despite SIGNIFICANTLY less travel than Western states from China and between themselves within Europe and the USA. Bear in mind Africa had just a handful of reported cases a couple weeks ago, and now have thousands upon thousands, South Africa chief among them. And yes that number (meaning the reported number, as the true number is far higher) will also begin to grow. They are just behind the curve (and have less testing facilities/faculties).

[OkcSinceSGA]

https://news.yahoo.com/suspected-sars-virus-and-flu-found-in-luggage-fbi-report-describes-chinas-biosecurity-risk-144526820.html

Suspected SARS virus and flu samples found in luggage: FBI report describes China's 'biosecurity risk'


Also..

Concerns about Chinese biosafety are not new. For example, the SARS outbreak in 2003 was followed by several incidents of infections caused by laboratory accidents, including eight cases that resulted from mishandling at the Chinese Institute of Virology in Beijing.

“There have been cases in the past where a variant of some kind of flu pandemic had escaped from a laboratory because of mismanagement,” said Elsa Kania, an adjunct senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security. 


Use the Current Affairs section to discuss this.

[Triples333]

Wow - there's been a major outbreak on the carrier USS Roosevelt. The Captain is pleading to allow his sailors to be quarantined on shore as the infection is accelerating among the crew (if you've ever seen how warships are laid out - most sailors bunk together in communal rooms)

https://www.sfchronicle.com/bayarea/article/Exclusive-Captain-of-aircraft-carrier-with-15167883.php

You never want to see this, but it will serve as an interesting test case where a mass of healthy young to middle aged men and women all get it at the same time, and how they react. The data will be important. Here's hoping they all make it out on top during their quarantine. But I'm very curious how and why that quarantine has not been initiated yet. Actually seeing their Captain is from where I grew up.

[Dirk]

India, never fails to surprise me

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[Wagonband]

Just a quick not about why I personally, a guy that has no idea how this things work, think that Africa isn't seeing a problem.

I think it's 2 parts;

1) Like mentioned, there's not that much travel too and from Africa as with other countries. Sure you have your tourist destinations, but like 90% of African population have never been near a plane, let alone being able to travel all the time. While in the other parts of the world, especially Europe, North America and the more developed parts of Africa use air travel all the time, a lot of people more than once a year.

2) The average age. Because of the poor conditions, people live much less than in Europe/NA... For example a quick google search gives the average age of Nigeria to be an incredible 18 years of age,while Italy has close to 50 for example. Since the younger population doesn't get sick as often, it's probably not noticable even in the ones that have it.

Ofc if you add to all this the less test that are being made (prob most countries don't event test yet on any reasonable scale), the results will look minuscule compared to the rest of the world.

[Optimus_Steel]

Hospitals are firing doctors and nurses speaking out on social media about lack of supplies and protective equipment....we are approaching Elysium very quickly. We have a lack of medical workers, alot of them are getting sick and instead of helping them some hospital networks are firing...

[Triples333]

India, never fails to surprise me

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If that i what I think it is, this spray disinfectant is being used all over the world. First time I have seen it used on people as if they are livestock though. Not a good look.

[LKN]

Hospitals are firing doctors and nurses speaking out on social media about lack of supplies and protective equipment....we are approaching Elysium very quickly. We have a lack of medical workers, alot of them are getting sick and instead of helping them some hospital networks are firing...

That's not going to last long - they are going to be desperate for anyone who can intubate a patient in the very near future (if they aren't already)

[Pharmcat]

Hospitals are firing doctors and nurses speaking out on social media about lack of supplies and protective equipment....we are approaching Elysium very quickly. We have a lack of medical workers, alot of them are getting sick and instead of helping them some hospital networks are firing...

Link?

[Dirk]

The other day I read an article on Uganda.

They were directed by the President last the week to stay home for 32 days to curb the spread of Covid-19.

What the Ugandan government spends on health care is one of the lowest in the world. The World Bank estimated its per capita spending on health at 6% of its gross domestic product, one-third that of the United States. Because of this chronic underfunding of the health system, Uganda has just 55 intensive care beds for its more than 42 million people. Of these, 20 have no ventilatory capacity and only one-third are part of the public health system. And these beds can be found only in the regional and national referral hospitals, located in major urban hubs.

Accessing these hospitals is challenging and expensive for those living in remote and rural areas, such as Seeta Nazigo. During the rainy season, the dirt roads are often impassable and crowded public transport to Kampala, the nation’s capital, can cost almost a week’s wage. And if someone does reach one of these hospitals, they are often required to make “informal payments” in order to receive care. These out-of-pocket payments can mean financial catastrophe for many.

https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/28/community-health-workers-lead-covid-19-fight-uganda/

This is the latest update from WHO on Africa

[niQ]

Hospitals are firing doctors and nurses speaking out on social media about lack of supplies and protective equipment....we are approaching Elysium very quickly. We have a lack of medical workers, alot of them are getting sick and instead of helping them some hospital networks are firing...

A lot of nurses are also getting kicked out of their homes by landlords who fear they will bring home the virus with them.
(posted earlier in the thread)

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[Dirk]

Italy update
• Active cases: 77,635 (+2,107 compared to yesterday)
• Deaths: 12,428 (+837)
• Healed: 15,729 (+1,109)
• Intensive care: 4,023 (+42)

Total cases: 105,792 (+4,053, + 4.0%)

They have had a decline in patients needing ICU. From ~120 March 26, 42 last 24hrs.

Daily variation %
Blue cases
Red deaths


52% of the dead have 3 or more underlying conditions.

[LKN]

Great thread - some of it is very technical (I don't understand all of it)... but some good detailed (albeit anecdotal) observations:

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?s=20

This will probably be of interest to many here:

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