Coronavirus

[dice]

was just taking a walk and passed a couple of mothers arguing with a neighbor who had just seen their kids tossing one of those big fabric frisbees around

[dice]

https://www.sfgate.com/coronavirus/article/28-test-positive-for-coronavirus-after-returning-15169039.php

28 out of around 70 kids going to spring break in Mexico a week and a half ago- when most of the country was in shelter in place- test positive. Took a charter plane- what were their parents thinking, letting them go on this?

the kids were in their 20s and the trip was likely paid for well prior, so in most cases it was probably on the kids to take responsibility

[Chi town]

Finally Trump delivers "prepare for a very rough two weeks." Then team share the virus model prediction and talks about serious death totals into the summer.

If it took China 3 months to of crazy lockdown... It may take us 5-6 months. Think September.

[Dresden]

San Francisco just extended our shelter in place order until May 3rd.

[Dresden]

https://www.yahoo.com/news/look-think-im-kind-virus-130032533.html

"Across the U.S., Asian Americans have become the target of xenophobic and bigoted attacks as the pandemic wreaks havoc in American society. Experts said the scapegoating is fueled by harmful rhetoric from politicians, including the president, who later called for the protection of Asian Americans from xenophobic attacks after repeatedly calling COVID-19 the "Chinese virus.""

[kulaz3000]

https://www.yahoo.com/news/look-think-im-kind-virus-130032533.html

"Across the U.S., Asian Americans have become the target of xenophobic and bigoted attacks as the pandemic wreaks havoc in American society. Experts said the scapegoating is fueled by harmful rhetoric from politicians, including the president, who later called for the protection of Asian Americans from xenophobic attacks after repeatedly calling COVID-19 the "Chinese virus.""

Unsurprising. Any excuse for some people to outwardly be racist, with justificiation (in their minds) and they'll jump at that opportunity.

[dice]

Finally Trump delivers "prepare for a very rough two weeks." Then team share the virus model prediction and talks about serious death totals into the summer.

If it took China 3 months to of crazy lockdown... It may take us 5-6 months. Think September.

can't find the white house (fauci) model, but it suggests 100-220K deaths if we maintain shutdowns and 1.5-2.2 million if we had done nothing from the start. the 2.2. mil number jives w/ the widely cited imperial college london study from 2 weeks ago, which suggested that july will be the peak of the crisis (and pretty much out of the woods at some point in august) if we flatten the curve sufficiently:

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf

also suggested 1.1 mil deaths in the US if using only moderate containment efforts

[Nikola]

Finally Trump delivers "prepare for a very rough two weeks." Then team share the virus model prediction and talks about serious death totals into the summer.

If it took China 3 months to of crazy lockdown... It may take us 5-6 months. Think September.

You won't have to worry about the virus if we lock down until September.

[Chi town]

Finally Trump delivers "prepare for a very rough two weeks." Then team share the virus model prediction and talks about serious death totals into the summer.

If it took China 3 months to of crazy lockdown... It may take us 5-6 months. Think September.

You won't have to worry about the virus if we lock down until September.

We won’t though. We still have most of the states not doing shelter in place. Don’t know if people or our economy could survive a true 4 month lockdown like China did.

[dice]

Finally Trump delivers "prepare for a very rough two weeks." Then team share the virus model prediction and talks about serious death totals into the summer.

If it took China 3 months to of crazy lockdown... It may take us 5-6 months. Think September.

You won't have to worry about the virus if we lock down until September.

We won’t though. We still have most of the states not doing shelter in place. Don’t know if people or our economy could survive a true 4 month lockdown like China did.

down to 17 states w/o shelter in place orders. when you include the city/county orders, over 80% of US citizens are being asked to stay home. with more almost certainly to come

[Nikola]

Finally Trump delivers "prepare for a very rough two weeks." Then team share the virus model prediction and talks about serious death totals into the summer.

If it took China 3 months to of crazy lockdown... It may take us 5-6 months. Think September.

You won't have to worry about the virus if we lock down until September.

We won’t though. We still have most of the states not doing shelter in place. Don’t know if people or our economy could survive a true 4 month lockdown like China did.

We absolutely could not. Unemployment would be so high, the employed would come home to nothing. We may already be facing 30% unemployment. It's unfathomable.

https://www.usnews.com/news/economy/articles/2020-03-23/fed-official-unemployment-could-hit-30-as-coronavirus-slams-economy

[dice]

You won't have to worry about the virus if we lock down until September.

We won’t though. We still have most of the states not doing shelter in place. Don’t know if people or our economy could survive a true 4 month lockdown like China did.

We absolutely could not. Unemployment would be so high, the employed would come home to nothing. We may already be facing 30% unemployment. It's unfathomable.

https://www.usnews.com/news/economy/articles/2020-03-23/fed-official-unemployment-could-hit-30-as-coronavirus-slams-economy

the economy is not going disappear, folks. it's gonna be painful for most people to be sure, and there will be a long-term drag (maybe even long-term recession), but all the numbers will rapidly rebound as soon as we're mostly out of the woods on the virus and government restrictions are lifted. many if not most of the people who lose their jobs will even end up back in those same jobs or something similar

[Nikola]

We won’t though. We still have most of the states not doing shelter in place. Don’t know if people or our economy could survive a true 4 month lockdown like China did.

We absolutely could not. Unemployment would be so high, the employed would come home to nothing. We may already be facing 30% unemployment. It's unfathomable.

https://www.usnews.com/news/economy/articles/2020-03-23/fed-official-unemployment-could-hit-30-as-coronavirus-slams-economy

the economy is not going disappear, folks. it's gonna be painful for most people to be sure, and there will be a long-term drag (maybe even long-term recession), but all the numbers will rapidly rebound as soon as we're mostly out of the woods on the virus and government restrictions are lifted. many if not most of the people who lose their jobs will even end up back in those same jobs or something similar

I agree that a lot of people will be going back to the same jobs. But the economy will not recover for many years. For some historical perspective the unemployment in the Great Depression at it's peak was 25%. Really no way to know what to expect. A lot depends on what the Fed can do to re-inflate the bubble they had created before the virus.

[jnrjr79]

The data is questionable EVERYWHERE. We just need to move on from questioning a lot of it. It’s tough to, because of the social and economic impact, but you just have to move on from it and trust the modeling is accurate enough with the data they have available to them.

This is precisely the conclusion the people who submit fraudulent data hope you will reach. Everyone can't be trusted, so screw it, let's not discuss whether some sets of data are more reliable than others.

[dice]

We absolutely could not. Unemployment would be so high, the employed would come home to nothing. We may already be facing 30% unemployment. It's unfathomable.

https://www.usnews.com/news/economy/articles/2020-03-23/fed-official-unemployment-could-hit-30-as-coronavirus-slams-economy

the economy is not going disappear, folks. it's gonna be painful for most people to be sure, and there will be a long-term drag (maybe even long-term recession), but all the numbers will rapidly rebound as soon as we're mostly out of the woods on the virus and government restrictions are lifted. many if not most of the people who lose their jobs will even end up back in those same jobs or something similar

I agree that a lot of people will be going back to the same jobs. But the economy will not recover for many years. For some historical perspective the unemployment in the Great Depression at it's peak was 25%.

businesses were not forced to shut down by the government during the great depression. it was an organic free market development. unemployment rate went from under 5% to over 21% over a FIVE YEAR period

Really no way to know what to expect.

we can certainly expect a rapid rebound as artificial restrictions are lifted. but yeah, other than that we're in pretty unique territory here

A lot depends on what the Fed can do to re-inflate the bubble they had created before the virus.

i'm no economist, but i know that the fed has more tools in its toolbelt than it did during the great depression and even during the great recession. presumably the government knows better which actions to take than it has in the past. and HOPEFULLY they act in the best interests of the majority of american workers

[Dresden]

The Great Depression lasted for almost a decade though, which is why it did so much damage. I would guess this economy would rebound pretty quickly once the pandemic is extinguished.

[dice]

The data is questionable EVERYWHERE. We just need to move on from questioning a lot of it. It’s tough to, because of the social and economic impact, but you just have to move on from it and trust the modeling is accurate enough with the data they have available to them.

This is precisely the conclusion the people who submit fraudulent data hope you will reach. Everyone can't be trusted, so screw it, let's not discuss whether some sets of data are more reliable than others.

i think you're misinterpreting what he said. he's saying that we can't just throw out all the data that's out there simply because it's incomplete (due to variable testing)

[Dresden]

Finally Trump delivers "prepare for a very rough two weeks." Then team share the virus model prediction and talks about serious death totals into the summer.

If it took China 3 months to of crazy lockdown... It may take us 5-6 months. Think September.

can't find the white house (fauci) model, but it suggests 100-220K deaths if we maintain shutdowns and 1.5-2.2 million if we had done nothing from the start. the 2.2. mil number jives w/ the widely cited imperial college london study from 2 weeks ago, which suggested that july will be the peak of the crisis (and pretty much out of the woods at some point in august) if we flatten the curve sufficiently:

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf

also suggested 1.1 mil deaths in the US if using only moderate containment efforts

That sure seems like a lot of deaths. We are only at around 4K now. And in some places the curve is already flattening. NYC should be soon. And we seem like we may be close to coming up with some effective treatments.

[dice]

Finally Trump delivers "prepare for a very rough two weeks." Then team share the virus model prediction and talks about serious death totals into the summer.

If it took China 3 months to of crazy lockdown... It may take us 5-6 months. Think September.

can't find the white house (fauci) model, but it suggests 100-220K deaths if we maintain shutdowns and 1.5-2.2 million if we had done nothing from the start. the 2.2. mil number jives w/ the widely cited imperial college london study from 2 weeks ago, which suggested that july will be the peak of the crisis (and pretty much out of the woods at some point in august) if we flatten the curve sufficiently:

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf

also suggested 1.1 mil deaths in the US if using only moderate containment efforts

That sure seems like a lot of deaths. We are only at around 4K now. And in some places the curve is already flattening. NYC should be soon. And we seem like we may be close to coming up with some effective treatments.

well, when you consider that we have 35-40K flu deaths a year, coronavirus seems to be more contagious AND we have no vaccine...of course, we don't do mass quarantines for the flu either, so who the hell knows

[musiqsoulchild]

We won’t though. We still have most of the states not doing shelter in place. Don’t know if people or our economy could survive a true 4 month lockdown like China did.

We absolutely could not. Unemployment would be so high, the employed would come home to nothing. We may already be facing 30% unemployment. It's unfathomable.

https://www.usnews.com/news/economy/articles/2020-03-23/fed-official-unemployment-could-hit-30-as-coronavirus-slams-economy

the economy is not going disappear, folks. it's gonna be painful for most people to be sure, and there will be a long-term drag (maybe even long-term recession), but all the numbers will rapidly rebound as soon as we're mostly out of the woods on the virus and government restrictions are lifted. many if not most of the people who lose their jobs will even end up back in those same jobs or something similar

The issue isnt that Dice.

The issue is that our Supply Chains are consumer driven. If people dont have excess cash lying around, then it takes a lot longer for the economy to rebound.