Semi-OT: Coronavirus (COVID-19) Discussion Thread VI (Don't Read Post 1 & FAQ)

[Jellybeans]

Its all about ICU beds in this hell.
Few days ago was reading about why there is such diff with Italy/spain/uk and germany.
First 3 has like 5-6k ICU beds per country and Germany has like 24-25k beds,and their mortality rate is just 1%

[OkcSinceSGA]

Dirk I'll commit to leaving the lab made/altered stuff alone for now to avoid risking derailment. As you mentioned, hopefully we get the truth eventually one way or another. I expect to feel vindicated, but I'll stick to posting my stories about updates+people's personal experiences with COVID for now.

[Doug_12]

Because the mortality rate would be much higher if we didn't lock everything down. The mortality rate isn't a set thing, it depends on our response and our health care systems (and many other factors). It doesn't matter what the rate actually is right now because as hospitals get overwhelmed, it shoots up.

True. It's probably because they know the POTENTIAL of a way higher death rate due to systemic failure if not flattened.

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Yeah it's because all of this is unknown. No one knows the mortality rate. Even the biggest "experts" are just trying to draw conclusions with the data they currently have, admitting they don't have all of the data. It's a fluid situation.

The lock down is precautionary because we know there is a high likelihood that we slow the spread of the virus by doing the lockdown, etc. It's the safest/best course of action based on what we currently know.

However, in hindsight things could look different.

It's like trying to time a stock trade. You don't know for sure when it's going to bottom out or when it's going to explode. You're just making educated guesses. And I mean that analogy also in terms of at what point does a lockdown tank our whole economy? Should we risk economic collapse by locking down for months? These are more questions no one really knows the exact timeline or answers to.

This is uncharted territory. Like a storm at sea. Even the best captains don't control the storm. They just have to try to navigate it as best they can and try to keep the ship intact.

Yes, that's true. However there are a couple of "cornerstones" that are known and I think those are justifying the lockdowns mostly. Even though we don't know the true fatality rate we know that
-in the last 1 month in Italy the number of people died from coronavirus is 60x more than the number of people died (in 1 month) in an average influenza season. (covid stats: worldometers, influenza stats:https://www.thelocal.it/20200123/flu-outbreak-in-italy-half-a-million-people-struck-down-in-a-week)
-the death rate in South Korea - where testing is widely used even for asymptomatic cases - seem to be stabilizing around 2.9%. As even them won't find every possible infected, this rate in reality should be a bit lower, but not w/ 1 or 2 orders of magnitude.

[zimpy27]

Its all about ICU beds in this hell.
Few days ago was reading about why there is such diff with Italy/spain/uk and germany.
First 3 has like 5-6k ICU beds per country and Germany has like 24-25k beds,and their mortality rate is just 1%

Healthcare makes a big difference but also how well the bureaucracy is managed in these countries to enact system-wide changes.

There are an incredible amount of moving parts that need to be in sync to prevent deaths. So much comes down to mismanagement and miscommunication. Italy and Germany are opposite ends of the spectrum when it comes to this.

[basketballRob]

Seems like either no country wants to be the first to report over 1000 deaths in a single day or the daily death total in any one country seems to max out before 1000.

USA should push through this number soon, if they don't then my suspicions will be roused.

We're projected to be close to 2500 a day soon.

Covid19.healthdata.org


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[chrismikayla]

I am starting to wonder what my level of risk is with my new role at work. Our outpatient centers are closed due to the pandemic, however the inpatient mental health hospital facility is still open. I was offered a new temp position as a patient liaison. When they arrive to the facility, I would greet them and explain what to expect during their stay. I would also get them to sign admission paperwork in the presence of security officers. It would be an overnight position and would average about 2 to 4 patients per night. I would have an N95 and safety goggles. I have no health problems and get yearly physicals including CT heart scan and echo, but I am an older adult (41). I worry about what my risk is doing this job.

[Sgt Major]

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/coronavirus-doctors-medical-staff-fired-ppe-resources-pandemic-a9439331.html

Coronavirus: US doctors warned they will be fired if they complain to media about lack of resources


But yeah, let's talk about China

[Optimus_Steel]

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/coronavirus-doctors-medical-staff-fired-ppe-resources-pandemic-a9439331.html

Coronavirus: US doctors warned they will be fired if they complain to media about lack of resources


But yeah, let's talk about China

Get them help instead of silencing them. Even in an emergency leadership is interested in saving their own ass.

[OkcSinceSGA]

Read on Twitter

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[OkcSinceSGA]

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/coronavirus-doctors-medical-staff-fired-ppe-resources-pandemic-a9439331.html

Coronavirus: US doctors warned they will be fired if they complain to media about lack of resources


But yeah, let's talk about China

False dilemma. Let's talk about both at the same time.

[alebaba]

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/coronavirus-doctors-medical-staff-fired-ppe-resources-pandemic-a9439331.html

Coronavirus: US doctors warned they will be fired if they complain to media about lack of resources


But yeah, let's talk about China

U.S government is no better than a communist government..

Read on Twitter

Surprise, surprise.

You think America is not doing the same.... Our numbers is going to be way higher, their quarantine was a real lock down not like the U.S.

Facts matter. Stop spreading disinformation.

How am I spreading false information....

[ken6199]

Watch on YouTube

[Paija]

About our corner of the world.
Latvia has 446 cases from 15810 tested (2.8% positive), 27 in hospitals, still 3 critical, 0 deaths.
Estonia 779/14353 (5.4% positive, but have tested more per capita),15 critical, 5 deaths
Lithuania 581/12574 (4.6% positive), 11 critical, 8 deaths.

In Latvia we had largest spike of cases (+46) and two more clusters besides previous (funeral service). One is night shelter by the church (for homeless people). One of the usual inhabitants became sick, was tested and then they discovered that many more of the inhabitants and staff are positive (27), of them just one is hospitalized, the rest are quarantined and the army provided tent where they put those who were negative.
The most ironic cluster are 5 people who work in a call center ... for the statewide ER. They are highly experienced people to deal with all the emergencies, mainly to sort out who is really in need in ER brigade and who can wait until the morning and talk with their usual doctor. Recently they are of course quite overwhelmed by all the people who think they might have coronavirus (which is absolutely normal, because who does not have some kind of cold or flu during the winter? only now we pay attention to every cough or sneeze and wonder...) So these two ladies went to work sick and thought that they have angina, but because of so much work just kept working. They have no contact with sick people whatsoever, so it is not clear how they got it. And now the call center is in a big trouble because they must train someone very quickly.

[Courtside]

:noway:

Gotta admit, this battle between doctors / nurses and hospital administrators was not one I saw coming.

Read on Twitter

This has to make you think. What is the purpose of preventing healthcare workers from trying to protect themselves? Why is PPE offensive to so many administrators? Where is the directive to prevent people from protecting themselves coming from? What is really going on? At some point does the possibility exist that this isn't mere ignorance? Mere incompetence?

It's like the airlines, they don't want to scare away customers, because of the terrible messaging that only sick people should wear masks. Most American hospitals are businesses after all, acd scaring away patients ends up leading to job cuts and pay cuts.

SO effing stupid.

[Dirk]

About our corner of the world.
Latvia has 446 cases from 15810 tested (2.8% positive), 27 in hospitals, still 3 critical, 0 deaths.
Estonia 779/14353 (5.4% positive, but have tested more per capita),15 critical, 5 deaths
Lithuania 581/12574 (4.6% positive), 11 critical, 8 deaths.

In Latvia we had largest spike of cases (+46) and two more clusters besides previous (funeral service). One is night shelter by the church (for homeless people). One of the usual inhabitants became sick, was tested and then they discovered that many more of the inhabitants and staff are positive (27), of them just one is hospitalized, the rest are quarantined and the army provided tent where they put those who were negative.
The most ironic cluster are 5 people who work in a call center ... for the statewide ER. They are highly experienced people to deal with all the emergencies, mainly to sort out who is really in need in ER brigade and who can wait until the morning and talk with their usual doctor. Recently they are of course quite overwhelmed by all the people who think they might have coronavirus (which is absolutely normal, because who does not have some kind of cold or flu during the winter? only now we pay attention to every cough or sneeze and wonder...) So these two ladies went to work sick and thought that they have angina, but because of so much work just kept working. They have no contact with sick people whatsoever, so it is not clear how they got it. And now the call center is in a big trouble because they must train someone very quickly.

This is the spirit of the topic.

We would have no clue of what was going on in Latvia otherwise. We'd probably just think that you were killing the virus with vodka.

[ken6199]

:noway:

Gotta admit, this battle between doctors / nurses and hospital administrators was not one I saw coming.

Read on Twitter

This has to make you think. What is the purpose of preventing healthcare workers from trying to protect themselves? Why is PPE offensive to so many administrators? Where is the directive to prevent people from protecting themselves coming from? What is really going on? At some point does the possibility exist that this isn't mere ignorance? Mere incompetence?

It's like the airlines, they don't want to scare away customers, because of the terrible messaging that only sick people should wear masks. Most American hospitals are businesses after all, acd scaring away patients ends up leading to job cuts and pay cuts.

SO effing stupid.

Also this. (let's just ignore those thick heads who prioritize party over human lives for a second). NYPD has 15% of the force out sick, and we are still not having police wear masks. 4 minute video clips, you wonder how many policemen were infected during that time. Btw this was Mar 29th.

Watch on YouTube

;feature=youtu.be

[Doug_12]

I am starting to wonder what my level of risk is with my new role at work. Our outpatient centers are closed due to the pandemic, however the inpatient mental health hospital facility is still open. I was offered a new temp position as a patient liaison. When they arrive to the facility, I would greet them and explain what to expect during their stay. I would also get them to sign admission paperwork in the presence of security officers. It would be an overnight position and would average about 2 to 4 patients per night. I would have an N95 and safety goggles. I have no health problems and get yearly physicals including CT heart scan and echo, but I am an older adult (41). I worry about what my risk is doing this job.

Would you be able to/are you allowed to keep the 2m distance? If so, and pay attention to wash hand properly when you change mask or goggles I don't think you'll be at high risk. You also need to take into consideration that even in the worst case scenario not everyone is gonna get infected, also if someone is infected when he starts developing symptoms would most probably stay at home, and not all the doctors who are treating covid patients all day long get infected plus only a fraction of them dies.

So you might meet a few people who has the virus but not too many (In ~66% of the cases* if someone is infected won't visit your center and only a certain % of the people are infected), and w/ the protective gear you can also reduce your risk by a huge factor. Then your probability of let's say requiring intensive care in your age group is also well below 10%, and the case fatality rate is ~1%.

If this helps anything your chance of meeting someone infected AND getting infected AND getting into a state where intensive care is required seem slim to me. (Though that's dependent on the awareness of the community, the spread of the virus and your protective actions.)

*Average time being spent sick is 21 days let's say. Average time to develop symptoms is ~7 days. The estimated probability of sick person showing no symptoms on a random day is like 7/21=33%. The probability of the day of the visit of a sick person falling in the day where he has no symptoms is again that 33%.

[LKN]

The US is funny - there are some states (NY) that have good data and some states (FL) where the data is basically China quality.

[paxson_4_3]

The US is funny - there are some states (NY) that have good data and some states (FL) where the data is basically China quality.

It seems like: No tests, no cases. But this will be over once the number of seriously sick people will exceed ICU capacities!

[dhsilv2]

Italia, update

• Current cases: 80,572 (+2,937)
• Deceased: 13,155 (+727)
• Healed: 16,847 (+1,118)
• Hospitalized in Intensive Care: 4.035 (+12)

Total cases: 110.574 (+4.782, + 4.5%)

34455 tests
13,7% tested positive

Paywall, but headline is the key here.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/italys-coronavirus-death-toll-is-far-higher-than-reported-11585767179

Looks like Italy's numbers are understated. And combine with with China (which is less surprising) and this is getting frustrating as the numbers that were already blurry seem to be even more so.