Coronavirus

[coldfish]

Read on Twitter

Super fantastic well done video. Of particular note was the idea that we test everyone and give the people with immunity a certificate that allows them freedom of movement.

[League Circles]

I think when you see a negative effective bond yield list like I assume you're presenting here, what that actually means is that the bond holder is willing to sell the bond at a value so much less than it's face value, because despite the near certainty that technically the issuer (the government) will pay the coupon interest on it, the secondary market seller of the bond is basically scared of rapid inflation. They don't believe the coupon interest they're owed by the government will be of decent value because of pending inflation.

If a bond has a 5% coupon at par (100), and you sell it for 102 (a premium) then the yield less. You are now getting 4.9% instead of 5% (5/102 vs 5/100). So the higher the premium on the bond, the lower the yield. The higher the discount on the bond the greater the yield.

Now no matter how much premium you pay for a bond, you are still getting positive coupon. Where the negative yield comes in is when you pay a premium so high that the total interest you get on the bond doesn't make up for the premium.

Say I have a 1000 bond paying 5% interest for 3 years and then matures. My cash flow looks like
50
50
1050
Total cash received is 1150

Now say I pay a premium of 120 vs 100 par (so I paid 1200 for this bond), now I'm still getting an interest rate of 50/1200 which is 4.1% interest for each of the three years, but the overall yield of the bond is negative, because I lost 200 by purchasing so far above market.

People are all freaked out at the falling stock market prices but not many are talking about the drastic fall in trading volume (last I checked).

Trading volume is at a ridiculously high level since all this took place. Liquidity is definitely not a problem in the stock market. In the bond market, liquidity was a short term problem for about a week, but that's not the case anymore for technical reasons I don't really want to get into, but could if you really want to know. Bond Liquidity can become a problem much easier than stock liquidity just due to the fact that it's OTC and you don't have market makers like you do in the stock market.

Thanks for the clarification, corrections and explanations. I sort of mispoke in part in my last post.

I had looked up trading volume and saw it as very low. Not sure where I looked it up and I easily could have been looking at the wrong thing or maybe it's been fluctuating a lot IDK cause I can't seem to find general public access to daily volume at the moment for NYSE or NASDAQ.

And perhaps you're referring to US Bond volume whereas I was referring to Japanese bond trading volume (as that's what was referenced as having a negative yield).

I guess my main point is, I still am concerned that excessive debt will in fact be horrible for the economy, though everything is going to look horrible going forward if we compare it to the past. I try to look at fundamentals especially when the big picture is cloudy. So in times like this I think:

1. We already use debt for something like 1/3 of our federal budget
2. We rely on other governments, companies and (mostly very rich presumably) individuals to buy bonds to fund the government that we otherwise can't come close to affording.
3. Under a greatly expanded money supply, purchasing power goes way down.
4. Inflation follows, or at least would be projected to follow by many, whether or not it's measured by what I consider the ridiculous CPI metric
5. People don't buy bonds due to the real or projected inflation.
6. The federal government only has 2/3 of the money it needs.

At some point civilization needs to decide if money is going to be a measure of human behavior or simply a way to manipulate human behavior. Right now (and for most of modern history around the world as far as I understand), it's a way to manipulate human behavior. That has it's pros and cons, but we shouldn't gloss over the problems IMO.

[BigUps]

Read on Twitter

Super fantastic well done video. Of particular note was the idea that we test everyone and give the people with immunity a certificate that allows them freedom of movement.

Great idea. Will take awhile to do this though.

I don't know why, but I just had a vision in my head after reading this about Coronavirus parties. You know, to mimic Chickenpox parties for kids. Getting "clearance" will be sought after.

[nitetrain8603]

Read on Twitter

Super fantastic well done video. Of particular note was the idea that we test everyone and give the people with immunity a certificate that allows them freedom of movement.

Great idea. Will take awhile to do this though.

I don't know why, but I just had a vision in my head after reading this about Coronavirus parties. You know, to mimi Chickenpox parties for kids. Getting "clearance" will be sought after.

From a physical health perspective, it makes sense. But in reality, I think that's a lot harder to pull off. First of all, there are psychological ramifications of doing such. In addition to that, the "non-cleared" people still need to get groceries and essentials. You're opening the risk up if anything.

This is a weird time, a sad time; people need to be patient, however. People have to let desires go at a time like this. Oh, it's a nice day out, it's about to be summertime, etc. I get it, but no, stay at home. Wait until a vaccine is out.

[dougthonus]

I had looked up trading volume and saw it as very low. Not sure where I looked it up and I easily could have been looking at the wrong thing or maybe it's been fluctuating a lot IDK cause I can't seem to find general public access to daily volume at the moment for NYSE or NASDAQ.

Can see stock volumes on yahoo finance and get a feel for total volume by looking at sp500.

And perhaps you're referring to US Bond volume whereas I was referring to Japanese bond trading volume (as that's what was referenced as having a negative yield).

Wasn't referring to bond volumes at all, only stock volumes. No idea what bond volumes are.

I guess my main point is, I still am concerned that excessive debt will in fact be horrible for the economy, though everything is going to look horrible going forward if we compare it to the past. I try to look at fundamentals especially when the big picture is cloudy. So in times like this I think:

1. We already use debt for something like 1/3 of our federal budget
2. We rely on other governments, companies and (mostly very rich presumably) individuals to buy bonds to fund the government that we otherwise can't come close to affording.
3. Under a greatly expanded money supply, purchasing power goes way down.
4. Inflation follows, or at least would be projected to follow by many, whether or not it's measured by what I consider the ridiculous CPI metric
5. People don't buy bonds due to the real or projected inflation.
6. The federal government only has 2/3 of the money it needs.

Yeah, could be a problem or maybe not. When I was younger I used to be really scared of the national debt, and it was a huge issue for a lot of people for a long time. I'm not so sure it's a big deal any longer though. I would have viewed it as a massive problem in my youth, now I'd view distribution of wealth and ownership of our nations assets falling into fewer and fewer hands as the massive problem.

Not to say they can't both be massive problems of course.

[chitowndish]

I just went grocery shopping today and I have one of those re-washable masks with a replaceable carbon filter and I also brought some eye goggles I had for woodworking. There aren't a lot of people wearing eye protection but I think it's pretty key because it's really easy to just have an itch and scratch near your eye and they remind you not to and physically prevent you from doing it. I didn't see anyone else with eye protection but about half of the people were wearing masks and a lot of gloves (I really don't see too much of a point to the gloves though because I'm just as likely to infect myself with a glove as my hand and my hand is washable). Everyone was really considerate again but there was one guy kind of rushing around walking right up next to people to shop so I was glad to have some protective stuff 99% of people seem to be respectful but all it takes is one person.

I also did a partial of that video about cleaning food because I had no clue how long the coronavirus could stay alive on refrigerated or frozen items so I just wiped down anything that went in my freezer or fridge and I have just been leaving other stuff to sit for a week or so. It did probably take me 3 hours end to end because I also did a shower after but if I'm only going every 2 weeks I don't mind that so much and a lot of that is there was a line for the register. People were pretty safe and they had markings and barriers to protect the cashier but I am glad I went at an off peak time because all of the open lines were backed up with about 3-4 people waiting.

[Dresden]

This is rich- the US is trying to prohibit countries from accepting help from Cuban doctors during the Corona pandemic, claiming that they are being forced to work under unfair labor conditions (having to return most of the money they earn to the Cuban govt). How many times has our govt. voiced any concern whatsoever about the labor standards that exist in sweatshops companies like Nike or The Gap, or many other US apparel companies employ to make their products?

https://www.yahoo.com/news/cuban-docs-fighting-coronavirus-around-140044758.html

[Dresden]

Interesting study by MIT and the Fed, showing that in the 1918 Flu Pandemic, those US cities that shut down sooner, not only had fewer deaths and illnesses, but also came back stronger economically than those that didn't:

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/03/upshot/coronavirus-cities-social-distancing-better-employment.html?action=click&module=moreIn&pgtype=Article&region=Footer

[The Box Office]

https://medium.com/@13DResearch/a-corporate-debt-reckoning-is-coming-66aaf908d9b2

Oy dios mios! Uh oh.

AMC Theatres about to collapse, too. It's getting ugly.

https://www.thewrap.com/amcs-credit-rating-downgraded-by-sp-with-recovery-unlikely

[Habs72]

US hijacks medical shipment at airport supposed to go France by offering triple amount of cash...i cant even say how brutal this is.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/02/global-battle-coronavirus-equipment-masks-tests

[TallDude]

US hijacks medical shipment at airport supposed to go France by offering triple amount of cash...i cant even say how brutal this is.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/02/global-battle-coronavirus-equipment-masks-tests

Well. Sounds like Trump policy. Europe will be healty before US i guess and they will need help pretty soon. And it is not peoples foult who lead them. Well sorry, bacially it is atleast 51% who woted that chimp. Perhaps it won`t happend again???

But Europea is most powerful economic area in the world with or without Britain. Britain is just a little bonus. US needsoon medical help and they should get it. Even what some people do we must help US sooner or later. Seems like we in Finland are doing ok.It can change but now it looks solid. Still long way to go

[transplant]

My brother-in-law tested positive. He's 83 years old. He had been hospitalized for back/leg problems and was then sent to a rehab center where the test was taken. He was transferred back to the hospital with pneumonia and is on a ventilator. It doesn't look good.

**** just got real for me. My sister (his wife) got tested on Wednesday, but we won't know til next week (I guess the new quick tests are still on the shelf...****).

I wish I could find someone who I could hold responsible so I could kick the **** out of him. Instead, I'm just going to swallow this **** hard.

[TallDude]

My brother-in-law tested positive. He's 83 years old. He had been hospitalized for back/leg problems and was then sent to a rehab center where the test was taken. He was transferred back to the hospital with pneumonia and is on a ventilator. It doesn't look good.

**** just got real for me. My sister (his wife) got tested on Wednesday, but we won't know til next week (I guess the new quick tests are still on the shelf...****).

I wish I could find someone who I could hold responsible so I could kick the **** out of him. Instead, I'm just going to swallow this **** hard.

There is nobody to kick ass. This is not even `s foult. Well he was reeaaaally slow. It is 3000 000 000 bigger than Trump. After this it is chinas markets withch we lookin for and overpopulation. Not only China`s fault. It is based so many things like regolision etc.

[Nikola]

Interesting study by MIT and the Fed, showing that in the 1918 Flu Pandemic, those US cities that shut down sooner, not only had fewer deaths and illnesses, but also came back stronger economically than those that didn't:

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/03/upshot/coronavirus-cities-social-distancing-better-employment.html?action=click&module=moreIn&pgtype=Article&region=Footer

I don't know if they cherry picked cities or not. But every one of the cities with supposedly longer interventions and every one of the cities that did better economically, are also all of the cities from the western united states. Of course the west was growing faster.

[fleet]

So after Gavin Newsome complimented the President, Trump and Co get all complimentary back. I see what Newsome did there. Odds that equipment flows into Cali are all of the sudden very high. Trump is training governors like puppies.

[League Circles]

My brother-in-law tested positive. He's 83 years old. He had been hospitalized for back/leg problems and was then sent to a rehab center where the test was taken. He was transferred back to the hospital with pneumonia and is on a ventilator. It doesn't look good.

**** just got real for me. My sister (his wife) got tested on Wednesday, but we won't know til next week (I guess the new quick tests are still on the shelf...****).

I wish I could find someone who I could hold responsible so I could kick the **** out of him. Instead, I'm just going to swallow this **** hard.

Hope he makes it through and that your sister is ok.

[Dresden]

US hijacks medical shipment at airport supposed to go France by offering triple amount of cash...i cant even say how brutal this is.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/02/global-battle-coronavirus-equipment-masks-tests

Well. Sounds like Trump policy. Europe will be healty before US i guess and they will need help pretty soon. And it is not peoples foult who lead them. Well sorry, bacially it is atleast 51% who woted that chimp. Perhaps it won`t happend again???

But Europea is most powerful economic area in the world with or without Britain. Britain is just a little bonus. US needsoon medical help and they should get it. Even what some people do we must help US sooner or later. Seems like we in Finland are doing ok.It can change but now it looks solid. Still long way to go

Not even close to 51% voted for Trump because a lot of people here don't vote for one reason or another. It might be closer to 30% actually voted for him.

[TallDude]

My god. Your are blocked

[Dresden]

My brother-in-law tested positive. He's 83 years old. He had been hospitalized for back/leg problems and was then sent to a rehab center where the test was taken. He was transferred back to the hospital with pneumonia and is on a ventilator. It doesn't look good.

**** just got real for me. My sister (his wife) got tested on Wednesday, but we won't know til next week (I guess the new quick tests are still on the shelf...****).

I wish I could find someone who I could hold responsible so I could kick the **** out of him. Instead, I'm just going to swallow this **** hard.

That's tragic. It sounds like he was infected either in the hospital or the rehab center? You don't want to be in the hospital now unless it is a matter or life or death.

[Mech Engineer]

My brother-in-law tested positive. He's 83 years old. He had been hospitalized for back/leg problems and was then sent to a rehab center where the test was taken. He was transferred back to the hospital with pneumonia and is on a ventilator. It doesn't look good.

**** just got real for me. My sister (his wife) got tested on Wednesday, but we won't know til next week (I guess the new quick tests are still on the shelf...****).

I wish I could find someone who I could hold responsible so I could kick the **** out of him. Instead, I'm just going to swallow this **** hard.

It is tough when you can't even visit them. Did he catch it in the hospital he was being treated at?