Coronavirus/COVID-19, Thread 2

[claycarver]

Feb 4: 24,545 total cases
Mar 4: 95,314 total cases
Apr 4: 1,201,483 total cases

Are we peaking yet? When will we see this go down?

Also, it goes without saying -- I miss my Celtics and the NBA.

The point of the shut down is to delay the peak. If we're going to see 100,000 to 200,000 deaths in the US, we're a long way from the peak, right?

[zoyathedestroya]

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[Dave_From_NB]

Feb 4: 24,545 total cases
Mar 4: 95,314 total cases
Apr 4: 1,201,483 total cases

Are we peaking yet? When will we see this go down?

Also, it goes without saying -- I miss my Celtics and the NBA.

The point of the shut down is to delay the peak. If we're going to see 100,000 to 200,000 deaths in the US, we're a long way from the peak, right?

Looking at that picture of the NYC subway train previously posted, I would say "shut down" is a pretty loose concept at this point.

[exculpatory]

https://www.mdlinx.com/journal-summaries/viral-infections-severe-acute-respiratory-syndrome/2020/03/31/7635124/

FYI for the lay regarding Serologic Testing:

1. IgM (immunoglobulin M) antibodies always appear before IgG antibodies after an antigenic event.
2. Even after measurable IgG antibodies are detected more frequently, viral RNA may still be present, i.e. the patient may still be infectious.

[zoyathedestroya]

Good to hear from Mike. I wonder how Tommy's doing.

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[watsonthedragon]

I keep thinking about how it’ll be possible for things to go back to “normal” before a vaccine (2021) without massive testing. Without it I just see more waves of this coming as we don’t know who hasn’t had it yet. I’m worried this is going to last a lot longer than anyone wants to admit and if that happens are we going to start seeing civil unrest as the more people lose their jobs and are stuck inside? Honestly, we’ve seen in sports that people will use any excuse (winning OR losing) to go out, get drunk, and riot. Hope I’m just being pessimistic.

[Dave_From_NB]

I keep thinking about how it’ll be possible for things to go back to “normal” before a vaccine (2021) without massive testing. Without it I just see more waves of this coming as we don’t know who hasn’t had it yet. I’m worried this is going to last a lot longer than anyone wants to admit and if that happens are we going to start seeing civil unrest as the more people lose their jobs and are stuck inside? Honestly, we’ve seen in sports that people will use any excuse (winning OR losing) to go out, get drunk, and riot. Hope I’m just being pessimistic.

"Normal" evolves no matter what. Remember with fondness your world of 4 weeks ago, because we're not going back there. When Covid 19 is resolved, there will be businesses closed, houses foreclosed, governments dealing with massive deficits, families with loved ones gone. When are you going to be comfortable going to a crowded sportsbar, sitting beside a stranger at a sporting event, hopping on an airplane for leisure, getting on a cruise ship? How long will it take for the current social distancing to revert to old days?

How long did it take the world to get back to normal after 9/11? Did it?

I can better speak on Canada, but the government has put in place rules that tenants not making rent can't be evicted, a basic income level (employment insurance, or the Canada Emergency Response Benefit) is getting in place so everyone will eat. I wouldn't be surprised if restrictions on bankruptcies, foreclosures, etc. also come down the pipe. Of course at some point you have to pay the piper, but that will be after Covid runs its course.

So I think with the appropriate government intervention, the civil unrest can be curtailed. Those of us with brain capacity are worried about dying, or killing others rather than gathering in gangs of idiots rampaging through the streets. And I think the tolerance for those gangs of idiots is at an all-time low.

But there will be opportunities too coming out of this. Housing prices are going to drop. There will be lots of business opportunities to fill the void. Workers will need to be replaced. Hard to focus on that sort of stuff at this point.

Anyway, I'm off to find an empty stretch of coastline with my son for a few hours - that's our Sunday "normal".

[zoyathedestroya]

Feb 4: 24,545 total cases
Mar 4: 95,314 total cases
Apr 4: 1,201,483 total cases

Are we peaking yet? When will we see this go down?

Also, it goes without saying -- I miss my Celtics and the NBA.

The point of the shut down is to delay the peak. If we're going to see 100,000 to 200,000 deaths in the US, we're a long way from the peak, right?

Looking at that picture of the NYC subway train previously posted, I would say "shut down" is a pretty loose concept at this point.

In related news...

Read on Twitter

[SuperDeluxe]

The point of the shut down is to delay the peak. If we're going to see 100,000 to 200,000 deaths in the US, we're a long way from the peak, right?

Looking at that picture of the NYC subway train previously posted, I would say "shut down" is a pretty loose concept at this point.

In related news...

Read on Twitter

She may or may not be also covered by six feet of dirt soon.

[sam_I_am]

I’ve been a fairly negative poster here because the threat of this virus is real and the consequences of the failure to respect how bad it could be are potentially devastating. However, I would like to share some uplifting “advanced” statistics that are due to the shutdown of society. Much like the volume shooter who puts up good stats but hurts the team, apparently coronavirus is also bad for the Grim Reaper’s team despite putting up truly gruesome individual numbers.

For much of 2020, the average deaths nation wide have averaged about 55,000. Despite surge in Corona deaths last week, the overall deaths nationwide dropped to 50% of expected to 28,000. Pneumonia was killing 2900 per week but despite the surge in coronavirus deaths, death due to pneumonia dropped to 2000 last week.

Of course the sample size is too small right now as the disease is about to spread everywhere and won’t peak in most places until early May. But hey, less people are dying and that is a true silver lining. Apparently the shutdown is good for us and living life is bad for your health.

[zoyathedestroya]

This checks out. I haven't caught the coronavirus in the last 3 weeks.

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[claycarver]

I’ve been a fairly negative poster here because the threat of this virus is real and the consequences of the failure to respect how bad it could be are potentially devastating. However, I would like to share some uplifting “advanced” statistics that are due to the shutdown of society. Much like the volume shooter who puts up good stats but hurts the team, apparently coronavirus is also bad for the Grim Reaper’s team despite putting up truly gruesome individual numbers.

For much of 2020, the average deaths nation wide have averaged about 55,000. Despite surge in Corona deaths last week, the overall deaths nationwide dropped to 50% of expected to 28,000. Pneumonia was killing 2900 per week but despite the surge in coronavirus deaths, death due to pneumonia dropped to 2000 last week.

Of course the sample size is too small right now as the disease is about to spread everywhere and won’t peak in most places until early May. But hey, less people are dying and that is a true silver lining. Apparently the shutdown is good for us and living life is bad for your health.

Sam, that's excellent. It's exactly the kind of thing I was looking for. We typically have about 235,000 deaths per month in the United States but I was pretty sure that would drop (minus corona related deaths) because there's so much less contact for the spread of other diseases and so much less activity that leads to accidental deaths. It could even be possible that we end the year with fewer deaths than average, right?

Sam, where did you get that data? I'd love to keep up with it.

[sam_I_am]

I’ve been a fairly negative poster here because the threat of this virus is real and the consequences of the failure to respect how bad it could be are potentially devastating. However, I would like to share some uplifting “advanced” statistics that are due to the shutdown of society. Much like the volume shooter who puts up good stats but hurts the team, apparently coronavirus is also bad for the Grim Reaper’s team despite putting up truly gruesome individual numbers.

For much of 2020, the average deaths nation wide have averaged about 55,000. Despite surge in Corona deaths last week, the overall deaths nationwide dropped to 50% of expected to 28,000. Pneumonia was killing 2900 per week but despite the surge in coronavirus deaths, death due to pneumonia dropped to 2000 last week.

Of course the sample size is too small right now as the disease is about to spread everywhere and won’t peak in most places until early May. But hey, less people are dying and that is a true silver lining. Apparently the shutdown is good for us and living life is bad for your health.

Sam, that's excellent. It's exactly the kind of thing I was looking for. We typically have about 235,000 deaths per month in the United States but I was pretty sure that would drop (minus corona related deaths) because there's so much less contact for the spread of other diseases and so much less activity that leads to accidental deaths. It could even be possible that we end the year with fewer deaths than average, right?

Sam, where did you get that data? I'd love to keep up with it.

It’s direct from CDC. Last week’s data could be inaccurate of course as not all death certificates collected. But the week before was 42000 so down trend immediately impacted by shutdown.

Of course, this is to be expected because there is less driving, partying, risk taking, murdering, arresting etc. and therefore less sudden deaths. The coronavirus deaths often occur 10 days or later into disease so right now we are at part of curve where positive tests are exploding but the expected deaths that result, which won’t happen for weeks, are lagging behind. In June we coukd probably see weekly totals higher than average. Until or unless we do, however, these numbers should be reason for thankfulness.

I hope it doesn’t get misconstrued as evidence that the country and world are overreacting to the very real threat.

Here is link:

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/COVID19/index.htm

[jmr07019]

Cuomo dropping the ball on the subway jeez. As are all those people. Why would you even get on the subway?

This is a drastic example of how the haves and the have nots are going to fare in this pandemic. The racial disparity in the US of coronavirus pandemic is already revealed by those who have died or are in ICU and it is shocking and sickening. Those people probably work in health care, as home health aids, grocery stores, or other essential industries. Meanwhile, the elite who live on upper East side are locked down on in their summer homes in Cape Cod etc,

Yep. By now NY should have allowed unemployment for people who have to use the subway to get to their jobs*. No restrictions. But, even that is a slow process and low enough $ that it may not be practical for people. But you gotta give them some option other than riding in those crowded cars and continuing to spread this thing.

* Not sure if they have or not, apologies if that's been implemented.

Even if you gotta walk an hour or 90 minutes that would be a hell of a lot better than riding in that subway. It is end of March early April. There's no risk of frostbite. Walk. What is shown in that picture is uancceptable.

[zoyathedestroya]

This is a drastic example of how the haves and the have nots are going to fare in this pandemic. The racial disparity in the US of coronavirus pandemic is already revealed by those who have died or are in ICU and it is shocking and sickening. Those people probably work in health care, as home health aids, grocery stores, or other essential industries. Meanwhile, the elite who live on upper East side are locked down on in their summer homes in Cape Cod etc,

Yep. By now NY should have allowed unemployment for people who have to use the subway to get to their jobs*. No restrictions. But, even that is a slow process and low enough $ that it may not be practical for people. But you gotta give them some option other than riding in those crowded cars and continuing to spread this thing.

* Not sure if they have or not, apologies if that's been implemented.

Even if you gotta walk an hour or 90 minutes that would be a hell of a lot better than riding in that subway. It is end of March early April. There's no risk of frostbite. Walk. What is shown in that picture is uancceptable.

I dunno which branch of the government/military could do it -- National Guard, FEMA, ? -- but maybe they could set up pickup and dropoff points/times for essential workers. Have trucks shuttle them to and from work. The federal government has resources for this type of thing, right?

Hand out bikes or something. But packing possibly infected people into subway cars is just inviting Death into more homes and places of work.

[jmr07019]

Yep. By now NY should have allowed unemployment for people who have to use the subway to get to their jobs*. No restrictions. But, even that is a slow process and low enough $ that it may not be practical for people. But you gotta give them some option other than riding in those crowded cars and continuing to spread this thing.

* Not sure if they have or not, apologies if that's been implemented.

Even if you gotta walk an hour or 90 minutes that would be a hell of a lot better than riding in that subway. It is end of March early April. There's no risk of frostbite. Walk. What is shown in that picture is uancceptable.

I dunno which branch of the government/military could do it -- National Guard, FEMA, ? -- but maybe they could set up pickup and dropoff points/times for essential workers. Have trucks shuttle them to and from work. The federal government has resources for this type of thing, right?

Hand out bikes or something. But packing possibly infected people into subway cars is just inviting Death into more homes and places of work.

I know california has solar powered motorized scooters that are available to the general public for a small fee. They could bring some of those scooters in and waive the fee if you work at an essential workplace. They tried to bring these scooters to Boston this last summer. There have also been bike share programs they tried in MA. Didn't work in central MA but maybe bite the bullet financially in order to give people safe transportation. Your suggestion works too. Bottom line is something has to be done. You keep packing the subway like that and we will never get this thing under control.

[zoyathedestroya]

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I think someone in our country named their newborn Covid Bryant. People are just fascinating sometimes.

[SuperDeluxe]

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[CeltsfanSinceBirth]

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I think someone in our country named their newborn Covid Bryant. People are just fascinating sometimes.

As an immigration officer, I see a lot of names come across my desk, and some of the funniest ones come from the Philippines. My favorite was a large family where their kids were named Michael Jackson, Prince, Jon Bon Jovi, and Belinda Carlisle.

Covid Bryant is terrible though.

[claycarver]

I’ve been a fairly negative poster here because the threat of this virus is real and the consequences of the failure to respect how bad it could be are potentially devastating. However, I would like to share some uplifting “advanced” statistics that are due to the shutdown of society. Much like the volume shooter who puts up good stats but hurts the team, apparently coronavirus is also bad for the Grim Reaper’s team despite putting up truly gruesome individual numbers.

For much of 2020, the average deaths nation wide have averaged about 55,000. Despite surge in Corona deaths last week, the overall deaths nationwide dropped to 50% of expected to 28,000. Pneumonia was killing 2900 per week but despite the surge in coronavirus deaths, death due to pneumonia dropped to 2000 last week.

Of course the sample size is too small right now as the disease is about to spread everywhere and won’t peak in most places until early May. But hey, less people are dying and that is a true silver lining. Apparently the shutdown is good for us and living life is bad for your health.

Sam, that's excellent. It's exactly the kind of thing I was looking for. We typically have about 235,000 deaths per month in the United States but I was pretty sure that would drop (minus corona related deaths) because there's so much less contact for the spread of other diseases and so much less activity that leads to accidental deaths. It could even be possible that we end the year with fewer deaths than average, right?

Sam, where did you get that data? I'd love to keep up with it.

It’s direct from CDC. Last week’s data could be inaccurate of course as not all death certificates collected. But the week before was 42000 so down trend immediately impacted by shutdown.

Of course, this is to be expected because there is less driving, partying, risk taking, murdering, arresting etc. and therefore less sudden deaths. The coronavirus deaths often occur 10 days or later into disease so right now we are at part of curve where positive tests are exploding but the expected deaths that result, which won’t happen for weeks, are lagging behind. In June we coukd probably see weekly totals higher than average. Until or unless we do, however, these numbers should be reason for thankfulness.

I hope it doesn’t get misconstrued as evidence that the country and world are overreacting to the very real threat.

Here is link:

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/COVID19/index.htm

Right, of course not. Deaths will certainly swell going forward. But if we're seeing 20,000-ish fewer deaths a week right now, that offers quite a cushion.

Now, this will sound heartless, but not all deaths are equal. The future years of life represented by those deaths are significant too. If a 20 year old isn't caught in an auto accident and goes on to live to to be 85 years old, that has a different impact than an 80 year old who dies of the virus. Substitute 80,000-ish retiree deaths for 80,000-ish young adult deaths and that has to have some repercussions.

No, I'm not suggesting that the life of a 20 year old matters more than the life of an 80 year old...although, I guess I would say that my teenager daughters have much more to offer at this point than I do. I've taken most of my most important swings already.

Anyway, it's all very interesting to keep up with.