bucknersrevenge wrote:Appreciate the differing opinion on these topics. That said, you have me wondering if stats matter to you why don't Toppin's stats matter more?
https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/players/obadiah-toppin-1.html1st in the Conference in overall points scored, fg%, efg%, PER, off rtng, 2nd in ppg, consensus All-American and National player of the year with 20/7.5/2.2 on 63/39/70. He's explosive, athletic, can score at all 3 levels and fits today's game. How far down would you normally put a guy with his resume?
First, he turned 22 in March. I'm actually more concerned with his stats from last season ('18-19), and I still take into account that he was 1-2 years older than the typical collegiate freshman (although I think he was a transfer? I haven't even gotten that far yet).
Elaborating, I find that players tend to hit physical maturation after they turn 21, and they typically gain added athleticism and strength. College players who can contribute as upperclassmen, relatively speaking, tend to be dime a dozen. Production as an underclassman tends to be more indicative of a player's true upside.
(Likewise, I like to pay added attention to freshman stats, as a player who doesn't adjust quickly to the collegiate game likely won't adjust so quickly to the NBA game. I haven't done any formal study to confirm, but it seems to check out anecdotally.)
Next, I find that rebounding (per minute, relative to size and competition etc) tends to be very revealing as to a player's true upside. There are skills that take effort, dedicated focus and practice to master. Rebounding is much more simple, it's a product of effort, focus, fundamentals, instincts, awareness, etc. A viable NBA prospect should be able to rebound effortlessly in the NCAA.
Obi's 8.5 rebounds per 40 last season (9.5 this season), relative to draft prospects I typically look at, would be above average for a wing, passable for a guy fitting his profile, but ultimately not impressive for a 20 y/o guy with length and hops playing in the A-10.
His A/TO is fine, arguably a plus for a guy called on to be a primary scorer. Defensive box score stats are solid. And these are areas that can speak to instincts and IQ. He shot nearly 70% from inside the paint over the past two seasons, and on decent volume, which is awesome and likely speaks to his ability to assert himself offensively. And the overall efficiency of his game likely speaks to IQ and unselfishness. But, I think he led the NCAA in dunks per game? Interior scoring, particularly where advanced post work isn't utilized, doesn't translate to the NBA so easily as other things. Justin Patton was comparable as a freshman (granted, he was taller).
His % from outside is solid, but he didn't take many threes. Lots of 22 year olds can hit threes in college, and lots of players improve on their jump shot after entering the NBA. I don't pay so much attention to shooting unless a player exceeds a high threshold, or fails to meet a low one.
He was considered a second round prospect a season ago from what I can gather, and the notion that he is now a surefire top 5 pick seems like overreaction to me. 5-15 range may be reasonable.
(I'm not even sure how explosive he is btw, but I figured that is factored into his stats regardless. thestepien, in a piece written two months ago, questions his lateral quickness, and refers to heavy feet. So If I take that at face value, he doesn't come off like an athletic freak, or what not.)
As for Tillie vs Garrity vs Novak. All 3 are White and tall and can shoot so I suppose there is that comparison. I'd argue that Tillie's game is way more well rounded. More versatile, more athletic, and better defensively.
Going back to what I was saying about rebounding, 9 rebounds per 40 (10.6 in limited minutes as a Freshman) is poor for an NBA caliber big man playing in the WCC. In fairness, he's not as tall as I thought, and he's been playing on Zaga teams that have dominated the boards. So that's not entirely a fair criticism. But his foul efficiency has also been a bit stiff-esque. And I haven't read great things about his defense, although I know he's not Steve Novak.
Garrity's college stats are generally comparable, all things considered, although Tillie was used more as a stretch big and shot the ball much better. Killie generally does look better statistically than Steve Novak - 6 rebounds per 40 and 5.5 as a freshman, hardly any steals and blocks - but Novak was a crazy good shooter. While Tillie didn't shoot as much / as well as Novak, he did shoot 48% from three as an underclassman and was affected injury thereafter.
Hence, I kind of see him a modern version of Pat Garrity, but with the potential to shoot the ball at least a little bit more like Novak. He might be more versatile, more athletic, and better defensively compared to Garrity, but so is everyone else nowadays. (edit - I guess that might make him a bit like Davis Bertans)
About Williams, you might be right there. But I made that pick with my head, not my heart. Stevens has a type. And it's pretty obvious by now. And if you go down the line of those traits, Williams pretty much has them all, stats aside. Not even sure Stevens cares that much about the stats. Henry I think goes undrafted. What separates him from any 2 guard in the draft?
I didn't even realize you were the first to promote Williams. I actually feel kind of bad b/c it feels like I was picking on you with my post. fwiw I just glanced over Williams and don't have too much of an opinion on him at this point. I agree he checks off boxes that Danny seems to look for.
Aaron Henry seems to have ideal size, athleticism, lateral quickness,
and instincts on the defensive end. Came up big for Michigan State in the tourney last year, at times. I don't know if you watched Michigan State play Texas Tech in the Final Four last year - but either Culver would get hot or Matt Mooney would get hot, Izzo would switch Henry on to them and they were completely shut down. It was really impressive. On the offensive end, his jump shot meets a minimal threshold and he seems to be developing well as a passer. I'm not sure if he declares for the draft. He won't be a lottery pick if he does.
