OT: Investing - Stocks/Mutual Funds/Bonds/Crypto

[MickeyDavis]

Market about to have another hot opening. I think people are feeling more comfortable with how China, Italy etc have declining death rates. It was a 10 year bull run, so I would think people have saved a great deal of money and are putting it back into the market after the dips.

However... social distancing is going to eventually put us in a recession. Unless we can supply everyone with n95 masks, make a law where everyone has to wear a masks when we step out of our homes and everyone can do what they used to do. Otherwise, more non-essential businesses will be closing and more people will continue to lose their jobs.

We as a country really haven't felt a financial impact yet imo. Or we aren't realizing it yet. Once people burn through their savings is when things will get really scary for the market.

Unfortunately, I think there is a lag to the layoffs/'voluntary' salary cuts. A lot of people think they are safe and living normally but there are down stream effects that take longer. There are a lot of discussions going on how and what to cut.

Bingo.

As earnings go down, and they will go down for most companies, there will be a lot of layoffs down the road. While many employees felt the immediate effects and lost their jobs right away many more will lose their jobs as the year progresses. My company is financially stable but there's no way this won't result in job losses at some point. I don't know if I'll be one of them but I'm planning as if I will be.

[Stannis]

Market about to have another hot opening. I think people are feeling more comfortable with how China, Italy etc have declining death rates. It was a 10 year bull run, so I would think people have saved a great deal of money and are putting it back into the market after the dips.

However... social distancing is going to eventually put us in a recession. Unless we can supply everyone with n95 masks, make a law where everyone has to wear a masks when we step out of our homes and everyone can do what they used to do. Otherwise, more non-essential businesses will be closing and more people will continue to lose their jobs.

We as a country really haven't felt a financial impact yet imo. Or we aren't realizing it yet. Once people burn through their savings is when things will get really scary for the market.

Unfortunately, I think there is a lag to the layoffs/'voluntary' salary cuts. A lot of people think they are safe and living normally but there are down stream effects that take longer. There are a lot of discussions going on how and what to cut.

Bingo.

As earnings go down, and they will go down for most companies, there will be a lot of layoffs down the road. While many employees felt the immediate effects and lost their jobs right away many more will lose their jobs as the year progresses. My company is financially stable but there's no way this won't result in job losses at some point. I don't know if I'll be one of them but I'm planning as if I will be.

The executives at my work already took a 20-30% pay cut. Everybody else had their yearly cost of living raises halted.

My boss said we are pretty stable during hard times. But those little things will add up considering "stable" companies are having to make cutbacks already.

[M-C-G]

I have been patiently waiting on airlines, I think there is another major drop, probably around the time the next earnings calls are up, but if I can get into United at something like 12-15 a share, that seems like there is a lot of money to be made, when things normalize.

Well, what the hell do I know, airlines surging today.

[sidney lanier]

I have been patiently waiting on airlines, I think there is another major drop, probably around the time the next earnings calls are up, but if I can get into United at something like 12-15 a share, that seems like there is a lot of money to be made, when things normalize.

Well, what the hell do I know, airlines surging today.

If the market can fool Warren Buffett, those of us who aren't oracles shouldn't feel bad. I'd still keep my seat belt securely fastened low and tight around the hips for a while when it comes to these stocks, though.

[Stannis]

I have been patiently waiting on airlines, I think there is another major drop, probably around the time the next earnings calls are up, but if I can get into United at something like 12-15 a share, that seems like there is a lot of money to be made, when things normalize.

Well, what the hell do I know, airlines surging today.

Just 1 day. American Airlines can very well go down 20% tomorrow.

[BucksFanSD]

Last month the Fed dropped interest rates further, not far from all-time historic lows.

If the battle against COVID-19 keeps improving, and there is a very good recovery in 2020's 2nd Half, I wonder if the Fed will keep interest rates this low. If they were to remain this low, this recovery could really boom the economy and stock market.

[jschligs]

Maybe this is just me being pessimistic, but I feel we're setting up for a HUGE fallout.

Right now, these past weeks the markets are working and behaving just like you would expect from a desperate housewife in the middle of her marriage crisis; they only want to hear nice compliments from younger boys who are all doing their best to seduce her, ignoring why and how her marriage is failing.

Markets just want to cuddle with you people, to have you whisper at their ears that everything will be all right and the virus won't be uncontrollable, that we have avoided the worst-case scenario.

[BucksFanSD]

Maybe this is just me being pessimistic, but I feel we're setting up for a HUGE fallout.

Appreciate hearing your opinion. What do you think would trigger it? How low are you expecting?

[Ill-yasova]

Maybe this is just me being pessimistic, but I feel we're setting up for a HUGE fallout.

Appreciate hearing your opinion. What do you think would trigger it? How low are you expecting?

Hong Kong had a situation a few weeks ago where they thought they had completely suppressed the virus and started sending people back to work. They had only had 5 confirmed cases in the last month and 150 total and ended up confirming 150 additional cases in the next week after easing restrictions. We will get to this point in the next couple of months and I think that will be where the markets plunge again.

[Stannis]

Maybe this is just me being pessimistic, but I feel we're setting up for a HUGE fallout.

Appreciate hearing your opinion. What do you think would trigger it? How low are you expecting?

Hong Kong had a situation a few weeks ago where they thought they had completely suppressed the virus and started sending people back to work. They had only had 5 confirmed cases in the last month and 150 total and ended up confirming 150 additional cases in the next week after easing restrictions. We will get to this point in the next couple of months and I think that will be where the markets plunge again.

Pretty much. That's what I think will happen. We are reaching the eye of the hurricane. People will think it will be ok and abandon social distancing, then we are back at square 1 again.

The virus is here to stay until a vaccine is created, and market will continue to go down until then.

Now, we can keep each other healthy and safe by being in quarantine/social distancing, which should be #1 priority. But the trade off is a crappy market which is necessary.

[MickeyDavis]

The market has always had a lot of knee jerk reaction days, higher and lower. It's increased recently of course. It's going to be a choppy year at least. I'll just keep grinding it out with my bi weekly 401K contributions and managing my other investments.

[jschligs]

I think we turned back positive too quickly after very insignificant news (IMO) like Trump touting an oil deal, the stimulus package, etc. People assuming the virus was improving too soon. People assuming the market was recovering too soon. They did everything they could, policy wise, to keep the market from completely tanking and it worked, temporarily. They had to do something, I agree. And I have no idea what would've been better.

I think we're still yet to hit the peak of the virus, we shrugged off unemployment numbers that are only going to get worse, there is going to be a massive crater of lost sales and production during this period. To assume things were even "ok" was foolish.

I don't think the rug pull will happen this weekend. I expect it to happen right after Easter and before end of May.

[BucksFanSD]

I see things being choppy (mostly depending on how other countries fare re-opening their economies) and we could re-test lows. Right now it is science versus the current fate of the virus. A lot of great scientific testing going on right now, but it takes time. Too many unknowns to make a real, exact determination for me but near term there is a real benefit saving us in the protection programs, stimulus, and historic interest rates. Fausi thinks the virus could have a seasonal resurgence and mentions we're preparing for that now and there will be an improvement compared to when we didn't have anything at the start. Ultimately if you see us making an eventual economic recovery from this (I do, I'm guessing in 2nd half 2020) you will want to cost average on the way down. We could rebound nicely over months if interest rates remain historically low if things to do begin to recover. I think the market is expecting us to recover from this and might price the expectation accordingly.

Investing in this stock market is like keeping a jealous mistress. It comes with both exhilaration and heartbreak.

[Stannis]

Trying my best not to buy anything. Feel like it's a trap lol.

[BucksFanSD]

Trying my best not to buy anything. Feel like it's a trap lol.

I look at risk vs reward and to me there's definitely more risk right now. This morning I shorted some retail stocks that are up 50-60 % for the half week Not any big money, since you never know what the market is capable of But we're still shut down for a long while with companies taking daily losses and carry the risk of what may happen when we re-open May 1st.

[Ruzious]

Well my new positions (ULTA, SYY, HASI) are already up 20% from buying last week lol. IDXX up like 50% from two weeks ago.

My plan was to DCA. But didn't expect such a big bounce so soon. Are we set to fall again just as fast? Who really knows lol.

Yeah, I think we are set to fall - maybe not tomorrow, but like jschligs said - "There is no way we can have hit bottom already, like, it's not possible."

A good strategy (imo) when you make a quick hit like that is to sell half. So even if it keeps going up, you still benefit. And if it goes down, you took your profit.

The lesson there is don't listen to me. The markets gone up the 2 days since I said that. I'm just holding through this - even though I think there will be a big drop at some point. But it'll eventually bounce back. I'm just really bad at timing these things.

[M-C-G]

Any thoughts on a ETF called JETS? I am going to invest in airlines at some point, not yet, but guessing soon. Thinking if this dips below $10 on bad news from the United Air earnings call, might do this to mitigate some risk in case any of these go under.

[MickeyDavis]

I see some headlines today about markets jumping due to optimism about economy opening up. Crazy. It's not opening up anytime soon and if it does open prematurely the market will tank again.

[jschligs]

I see some headlines today about markets jumping due to optimism about economy opening up. Crazy. It's not opening up anytime soon and if it does open prematurely the market will tank again.

Buy the rumor, sell the news.

This rally is ridiculous. Mark Cuban was on CNBC today and even he doesn't agree with it. We're less than 10% of where we were a year ago today, in the midst of a global pandemic

[humanrefutation]

I think it's in part because the recent models are projecting a lower death toll than was initially reported even a week ago. Also, Bernie dropping out has given Wall Street extra optimism.

But yeah, businesses are still going to be closed for a while, and you're going to see another major dip once you start seeing some well-known companies closing their doors permanently.