Semi-OT: Coronavirus (COVID-19) Discussion Thread

[zimpy27]

This has been a struggle to keep these threads open, I'm starting afresh here and I want things to be plain and simple.

We want proactive posts in this thread, we don't want reactive posts. What does that mean?
Post information, insights, experiences. If you reply to a post then do it in a positive way - add information, request more information, empathize, etc.

If you see posts that are political derailing, offensive to your country/race or just plain offensive then report the post and mods will come clean it up eventually.

This is a discussion thread, yes, but unlike other threads on the GB, this is also an information resource. Consider what you can add to this resource.

Reminder:

Only discussions allowed here are the ones that organically belong to the current state of emergency.

--- -- --- --- - --- -- - --- -- --- --- - --- -- - --- -- --- --- - --- -- -

▲ Posting useful info and updates is greatly appreciated
▲ If you post based on data, please link to the source. Don't post unverified data. Use Reliable Sources.
▲ Share your experience with others, how things are in your town/state/country.
▲ Report posts/PM mods if you have any problem with any post, the tone of the topic or want to provide feedback

--- -- --- --- - --- -- - --- -- --- --- - --- -- - --- -- --- --- - --- -- -

▼ No redundant discussions about China. Take their numbers with a grain of salt and move on
▼ No derailing with the virus name. In this topic, you refer to the virus as Coronavirus(Sars-cov2), just like the CDC does.
▼ No "it's the flu" bro type posts. If you are sceptical, make posts with substance to back it up.
▼ No conspiracy theories (i.e, virus was created in a lab), "but I have evidence!" - No. It just derails the topic.
▼ No side discussions about CNN Fox News, conservatives, liberals, etc
▼ No inappropriate/sensationalized posts. Source your posts well and verify the authenticity.
▼ No dumping of tweets by politically motivated accounts. Always preferable to share your own opinion.
▼ No cheap attacks on groups of users or people. If someone makes a bad post, you don't get a free card to attack the user/others who may think or vote the way he does.
▼ Low-effort content such as jokes, memes, or shitposts don't really belong here.

► No posts about "the mods should do this", "the mods should do that"
► No posts about the tone of the topic "this topic is this", "this topic is that"

--- -- --- --- - --- -- - --- -- --- --- - --- -- - --- -- --- --- - --- -- -

[rate_]

Linen

[zimpy27]

Here is some information in my county in California, it's the bottom of the bay area.

Pretty interesting graph showing hospital beds in Cali, I'm guessing because it's an Earthquake prone area they have a significant surge bed capacity.



We went into quarantine pretty much 4 weeks ago and you can see the cases per day have stabilized at about 50 cases a day over that period. Testing hasn't changed in number so at least the numbers are stable.

[EH15]

Thanks for this. A lot of people like me who don't care for US politics would rather not peruse the CA board.

[EH15]

The coronavirus may be “reactivating” in people who have been cured of the illness, according to Korea’s Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

About 51 patients classed as having been cured in South Korea have tested positive again, the CDC said in a briefing on Monday. Rather than being infected again, the virus may have been reactivated in these people, given they tested positive again shortly after being released from quarantine, said Jeong Eun-kyeong, director-general of the Korean CDC.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-09/coronavirus-may-reactivate-in-cured-patients-korean-cdc-says

False negatives?

[EazyAsPie]

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/investigations/2020/04/09/coronavirus-deaths-u-s-could-closer-60-k-new-model-shows/5122467002/

Great work my fellow amazingly, awesome Americans!

[EH15]

So they are using the UW model like the rest of us lol

[nymets1]

Why has the coronavirus thread got locked on here and the Orlando Magic board but it never gets locked in the current affairs board?

I was thinking about this earlier. In a US state where there's hotspots in a certain city/county, try to keep everybody out of those hotspots. The more people that keep traveling into those hotspots, than the number of cases keeps going up. I think the quickest way to get over the virus and not have to think about a 2nd or 3rd wave is the more people that can catch the virus the better because there's lesser people to infect once the people catch the virus than recovered and are now immune. No way the 2nd wave will be anywhere as worse as the 1st wave. A lot more people hopefully everyone will be a lot more prepared for the 2nd wave. Everybody will be better in the 2nd wave of staying home and social distancing so the virus can't infect as many people as the 1st wave. I'm estimating between 25 to 50 million people that are USA residents that are unconfirmed cases either have the virus now or have already recovered and I'm thinking at the end of the 1st wave as many as 50 to 100 million USA that are unconfirmed cases have caught the virus and recovered. My guess is in the 2nd wave no more than 1 million USA residents catch the virus.

[zimpy27]

The coronavirus may be “reactivating” in people who have been cured of the illness, according to Korea’s Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

About 51 patients classed as having been cured in South Korea have tested positive again, the CDC said in a briefing on Monday. Rather than being infected again, the virus may have been reactivated in these people, given they tested positive again shortly after being released from quarantine, said Jeong Eun-kyeong, director-general of the Korean CDC.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-09/coronavirus-may-reactivate-in-cured-patients-korean-cdc-says

False negatives?

False positives, false negatives, reactivation.

[SSUBluesman]

The coronavirus may be “reactivating” in people who have been cured of the illness, according to Korea’s Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

About 51 patients classed as having been cured in South Korea have tested positive again, the CDC said in a briefing on Monday. Rather than being infected again, the virus may have been reactivated in these people, given they tested positive again shortly after being released from quarantine, said Jeong Eun-kyeong, director-general of the Korean CDC.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-09/coronavirus-may-reactivate-in-cured-patients-korean-cdc-says

False negatives?

I seem to recall the CDC's standard for being 'cured' as being 2 negative nests within more than 24 hours of one another. This would point to either false negatives or that their 24 hour window is too short.

[ellobo]

Why has the coronavirus thread got locked on here and the Orlando Magic board but it never gets locked in the current affairs board?

I was thinking about this earlier. In a US state where there's hotspots in a certain city/county, try to keep everybody out of those hotspots. The more people that keep traveling into those hotspots, than the number of cases keeps going up. I think the quickest way to get over the virus and not have to think about a 2nd or 3rd wave is the more people that can catch the virus the better because there's lesser people to infect once the people catch the virus than recovered and are now immune. No way the 2nd wave will be anywhere as worse as the 1st wave. A lot more people hopefully everyone will be a lot more prepared for the 2nd wave. Everybody will be better in the 2nd wave of staying home and social distancing so the virus can't infect as many people as the 1st wave. I'm estimating between 25 to 50 million people that are USA residents that are unconfirmed cases either have the virus now or have already recovered and I'm thinking at the end of the 1st wave as many as 50 to 100 million USA that are unconfirmed cases have caught the virus and recovered. My guess is in the 2nd wave no more than 1 million USA residents catch the virus.

"Please, Don't Intentionally Infect Yourself With Coronavirus -- Signed, an Epidemiologist"
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/08/opinion/coronavirus-parties-herd-immunity.html

Reason 1:

1. Immunity isn’t a sure thing
We have not yet established that those who recover from this infection indeed develop long-term immunity. Herd immunity projections depend completely on such a sustained immune response, and we haven’t found out whether that even exists. We all sincerely hope it does, but we won’t know for certain until we study recovered patients over time.

There are six more reasons in the article.

Basically, getting infected puts you at risk of death and other serious, known and possible, short and long-term, negative effects, without necessarily giving you immunity to reinfection. Plus, it makes you a carrier that can put others at risk.

[SSUBluesman]

Why has the coronavirus thread got locked on here and the Orlando Magic board but it never gets locked in the current affairs board?

I was thinking about this earlier. In a US state where there's hotspots in a certain city/county, try to keep everybody out of those hotspots. The more people that keep traveling into those hotspots, than the number of cases keeps going up. I think the quickest way to get over the virus and not have to think about a 2nd or 3rd wave is the more people that can catch the virus the better because there's lesser people to infect once the people catch the virus than recovered and are now immune. No way the 2nd wave will be anywhere as worse as the 1st wave. A lot more people hopefully everyone will be a lot more prepared for the 2nd wave. Everybody will be better in the 2nd wave of staying home and social distancing so the virus can't infect as many people as the 1st wave. I'm estimating between 25 to 50 million people that are USA residents that are unconfirmed cases either have the virus now or have already recovered and I'm thinking at the end of the 1st wave as many as 50 to 100 million USA that are unconfirmed cases have caught the virus and recovered. My guess is in the 2nd wave no more than 1 million USA residents catch the virus.

"Please, Don't Intentionally Infect Yourself With Coronavirus -- Signed, an Epidemiologist"
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/08/opinion/coronavirus-parties-herd-immunity.html

Reason 1:

1. Immunity isn’t a sure thing
We have not yet established that those who recover from this infection indeed develop long-term immunity. Herd immunity projections depend completely on such a sustained immune response, and we haven’t found out whether that even exists. We all sincerely hope it does, but we won’t know for certain until we study recovered patients over time.

There are six more reasons in the article.

Basically, getting infected puts you at risk of death and other serious, known and possible, short and long-term, negative effects, without necessarily giving you immunity to reinfection. Plus, it makes you a carrier that can put others at risk.

I haven't read the article but this touches on something I had been thinking about, namely whether there are genetic/environmental factors that make it significantly riskier for an individual to contract. For example there's multiple countries where men are contracting/dying at a higher rate than women, I've seen research that points to significant infection rate differences based on blood type, there's the possibility of antibodies that we've seen reported out of Italy, etc.

[Mind_Odyssey]

Read on Twitter

Read on Twitter

[zimpy27]

Why has the coronavirus thread got locked on here and the Orlando Magic board but it never gets locked in the current affairs board?

I was thinking about this earlier. In a US state where there's hotspots in a certain city/county, try to keep everybody out of those hotspots. The more people that keep traveling into those hotspots, than the number of cases keeps going up. I think the quickest way to get over the virus and not have to think about a 2nd or 3rd wave is the more people that can catch the virus the better because there's lesser people to infect once the people catch the virus than recovered and are now immune. No way the 2nd wave will be anywhere as worse as the 1st wave. A lot more people hopefully everyone will be a lot more prepared for the 2nd wave. Everybody will be better in the 2nd wave of staying home and social distancing so the virus can't infect as many people as the 1st wave. I'm estimating between 25 to 50 million people that are USA residents that are unconfirmed cases either have the virus now or have already recovered and I'm thinking at the end of the 1st wave as many as 50 to 100 million USA that are unconfirmed cases have caught the virus and recovered. My guess is in the 2nd wave no more than 1 million USA residents catch the virus.

"Please, Don't Intentionally Infect Yourself With Coronavirus -- Signed, an Epidemiologist"
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/08/opinion/coronavirus-parties-herd-immunity.html

Reason 1:

1. Immunity isn’t a sure thing
We have not yet established that those who recover from this infection indeed develop long-term immunity. Herd immunity projections depend completely on such a sustained immune response, and we haven’t found out whether that even exists. We all sincerely hope it does, but we won’t know for certain until we study recovered patients over time.

There are six more reasons in the article.

Basically, getting infected puts you at risk of death and other serious, known and possible, short and long-term, negative effects, without necessarily giving you immunity to reinfection. Plus, it makes you a carrier that can put others at risk.

I haven't read the article but this touches on something I had been thinking about, namely whether there are genetic/environmental factors that make it significantly riskier for an individual to contract. For example there's multiple countries where men are contracting/dying at a higher rate than women, I've seen research that points to significant infection rate differences based on blood type, there's the possibility of antibodies that we've seen reported out of Italy, etc.

Yes genes and environment play a part in everything and yes there are certain factors that will elevate risk.

The obvious ones are -
Environment: air pollution, smoking
Genetics: blood type

There will be other genetics involved to do with many different paths to do with immunity and energy metabolism.

There will also be developmental/genetics differences that will be based on structural components.

[bondom34]

I keep getting the realization of how bizarre things are going to be when they're starting to even get back to normal. Everything's so different now than even a month ago.

Glad to see a few places seem to be improving, think I read that NZ had only like 29 new cases yesterday? Granted they're a smaller island country but still.

And a note but apologies to any of the mods if I contributed to anything that got the old stuff locked, it wasn't intentional.

[wolfv]

Just wondering if anyone here has the virus now? Woke up two days ago with flu symptoms. Fever, sore throat, headache, body pains. I'm in the UK so phoned the NHS and now must isolate for 7 days. I don't have the cough associated with covid so might be a mild case or could be influenza. I was a keyworker so was in work every day since the start of the lockdown

Sent from my Pixel 3a using Tapatalk

[gavran]

Read on Twitter

Read on Twitter

What about the rest of Denmark?

[subbed sub]

Read on Twitter

Read on Twitter

What about the rest of Denmark?

I've never heard it said like that before but I suppose it's factually correct.

[bondom34]

This is international obviously but the visual of it...

Read on Twitter

[HollowEarth]

I was looking at a bunch of info for how to make homemade masks and I thought I'd share a couple really solid videos, for no-sewing, disposable masks:

Here's a shop towel mask that's more effective than surgical ear loop masks:

Watch on YouTube

;t=1s
And here's a post in the comments from a researcher:

I tested 4 versions of the Shop Towel Mask today; mask 1) exactly according to the video, mask 2) long rubber bands on each side that could be tied behind the neck, mask 3) shoe strings instead of rubber bands so you could tie high and low like a surgeon’s mask, and mask 4) stacking two sheets together (double ply) with the long rubber bands around the neck. All of the masks were worn by the same individual (67yo healthy Caucasian male) and mask effectiveness was measured while, bending at the waist for 50sec, reading aloud for 30 sec, looking left and right for 30 seconds, and looking up and down for 30 seconds. Here’s what we found (I’ll refer to masks as 1-4 as described above):

Mask 1) 54.32% +/- 5.97% effective
Mask 2) 53.88% +/- 7.67% effective
Mask 3) 41.91% +/- 8.46% effective
Mask 4) 73.97% +/- 6.59% effective

So, mask 4 (2 pieces of paper towel together) performed the best. And while 73.97% may not seem very effective, mask 4 was actually better than standard surgical masks with ear loops (38.93% effective), a homemade cotton mask (53.17% effective), and surgical masks with tie strings (71.50% effective). So here is the big thing to remember with all masks, fit is everything! Even an N95 without a good seal is ineffective. The other thing to remember is that trying to breath through a thick mask can be tough on your heart and lungs. This could put elderly people and those with preexisting cardiopulmonary conditions at risk. Don’t wear a mask that makes you feel like you’re suffocating and avoid wearing any mask for really long periods of time. Take care of yourself and stay safe. Trust science and we’ll get through this mess. Not really a plug but I will post relevant COVID info and inhalation tox info on Twitter @UNCtoxicology
Thanks!
Phillip Clapp, PhD

And a paper towel mask that's 80% as effective as surgical masks:

Watch on YouTube

Joe Fan King-man, the institution’s assistant hospital chief executive, said the home-made masks had undergone laboratory tests by City University and were proven to have achieved 80 to 90 per cent of the function of regular surgical masks in terms of their filtration of aerosol and droplets.

https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/health-environment/article/3050689/how-make-your-own-mask-hong-kong-scientists

Be safe, y'all.