2019-20 OKC Thunder Regular Season Thread

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Re: 2019-20 OKC Thunder Regular Season Thread 

Post#661 » by Galloisdaman » Thu Apr 9, 2020 10:52 pm

No offense but I view your numbers as a mixture of math and your opinion. Nothing more. The models of hospital beds used and needed in the USA have been way off so far. Far fewer have been needed and used. NY may have had as many as 40,000 people come from China after the ban so I can see them as a hotspot never mind their subways, congestion, etc.
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Re: 2019-20 OKC Thunder Regular Season Thread 

Post#662 » by Kizz Fastfists » Fri Apr 10, 2020 2:43 pm

My numbers are a mix of reality and projection. I try to make it obvious which are which. For example, the extra 200+ deaths a day on wellness checks in NYC are real. The national guard collecting corpses in NYC and putting them in rented trucks is real. That we will see 10M+ US deaths from this is projection.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8202125/National-Guard-New-York-City-picking-dead-bodies-Enterprise-rental-vans.html

It is almost a guarantee at this point that NY's death numbers are low.
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Re: 2019-20 OKC Thunder Regular Season Thread 

Post#663 » by Galloisdaman » Fri Apr 10, 2020 4:47 pm

Kizz Fastfists wrote:My numbers are a mix of reality and projection. I try to make it obvious which are which. For example, the extra 200+ deaths a day on wellness checks in NYC are real. The national guard collecting corpses in NYC and putting them in rented trucks is real. That we will see 10M+ US deaths from this is projection.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8202125/National-Guard-New-York-City-picking-dead-bodies-Enterprise-rental-vans.html

It is almost a guarantee at this point that NY's death numbers are low.


Many crackpot conspiracy theories are a mix of reality and projection as well.

The Daily Mail? That is your source?

Are you now saying 10 million dead?

Even without this virus on average 7000 people die in the USA a day. What difference does it make if the NY has used the National Guard to transport some of them?
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Re: 2019-20 OKC Thunder Regular Season Thread 

Post#664 » by Kizz Fastfists » Fri Apr 10, 2020 5:13 pm

Galloisdaman wrote:Many crackpot conspiracy theories are a mix of reality and projection as well.

The Daily Mail? That is your source?

Are you now saying 10 million dead?

Even without this virus on average 7000 people die in the USA a day. What difference does it make if the NY has used the National Guard to transport some of them?


I have the my projections on total US coronavirus deaths at 15-20M. I will be surprised if it only ends up at the early projections of 3-5M. There are a lot of sources about NY not accurately counting the death total along with them digging mass graves. It will get bad like that in other places soon as this continues to spread through the population.

We had 8K Americans die per day last year. We are seeing 2K/day right now from the virus alone, which means an ADDITIONAL 2K. With 1K of those being in NY right now. That is overloading the system. The infrastructure in place is not set up to handle it that is why the national guard is rounding up corpses in rental vehicles. That is why they are digging mass graves to bury people in.

If you are asking if I care about how they get rid of the bodies? No. However, it is a reflection on how much more death there is then normal. Another side effect is that if they can't quickly dispose of the bodies they will attract rodents and bugs that might help spread the disease. This is something that was an issue with the black plague. Italy also has been having to use their military to collect bodies and I'm sure France and Spain will if they are not already. Do I care if 30M Americans die from this, which will most likely include both of my parents, not particularly. I do not want my parents to die, but that is the cycle of life. We are all born terminal and if this takes me out then so be it. I'm looking at data and processing it to calculate what I expect to happen. I could be wrong and it could only end up being "only" 250K dead as the government has been trying to push recently in a drastic change in opinion.

I am against closing things down and telling people to stay inside. People think that is a contradiction for me to believe it is as bad as I do AND to think everyone should be out passing it around. I don't care about "flattening the curve". Get it through the population and over with. It will be another year or longer until there is a vaccine. It is not healthy for us to be isolated and inside for a year mentally or physically. Forget about the economic issues we are causing.
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Re: 2019-20 OKC Thunder Regular Season Thread 

Post#665 » by Galloisdaman » Fri Apr 10, 2020 5:28 pm

Kizz Fastfists wrote:
Galloisdaman wrote:Many crackpot conspiracy theories are a mix of reality and projection as well.

The Daily Mail? That is your source?

Are you now saying 10 million dead?

Even without this virus on average 7000 people die in the USA a day. What difference does it make if the NY has used the National Guard to transport some of them?


I have the my projections on total US coronavirus deaths at 15-20M. I will be surprised if it only ends up at the early projections of 3-5M. There are a lot of sources about NY not accurately counting the death total along with them digging mass graves. It will get bad like that in other places soon as this continues to spread through the population.

We had 8K Americans die per day last year. We are seeing 2K/day right now from the virus alone, which means an ADDITIONAL 2K. With 1K of those being in NY right now. That is overloading the system. The infrastructure in place is not set up to handle it that is why the national guard is rounding up corpses in rental vehicles. That is why they are digging mass graves to bury people in.


You keep throwing out your thoughts mixed with some reality as facts. Problem is they are your theories not facts. We are not having the normal amount of deaths (i.e. 8000 a day average) plus 2000 a day Covid as you just claimed. Lost of deaths that would otherwise go down as flu, pneumonia, diabetes, cancer, heart attacks, kidney, etc are now being reported as Covid even if they have the loosest link to Covid whether that was the primary cause of death or not. They are not being classified by medical examiners often. In fact deaths classified as the flu and pneumonia have dropped significantly in the last month because they are being categorized as Covid. We also have way less traffic deaths happening with so much less people on the road. So many less that multiple insurance companies are giving rebates and credits voluntarily. So no your 8000 a day average deaths plus an extra 2000 a day Covid deaths is not reality. Its just your own theory.
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Re: 2019-20 OKC Thunder Regular Season Thread 

Post#666 » by Kizz Fastfists » Fri Apr 10, 2020 8:11 pm

For what it’s worth, about 8,000 Americans die every day from, almost overwhelmingly, diseases and other natural causes. Those, of course, haven’t stopped; Covid-19 deaths are in addition to those (with a caveat noted below).


https://www.statnews.com/2020/04/09/its-difficult-to-grasp-the-projected-deaths-from-covid-19-heres-how-they-compare-to-other-causes-of-death/
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Re: 2019-20 OKC Thunder Regular Season Thread 

Post#667 » by Galloisdaman » Fri Apr 10, 2020 8:17 pm

NY Govenor Cuomo says the total of hospital and ICU admissions continue to decline.
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Re: 2019-20 OKC Thunder Regular Season Thread 

Post#668 » by slick_watts » Thu Apr 16, 2020 4:53 pm

Kizz Fastfists wrote:
Galloisdaman wrote:Many crackpot conspiracy theories are a mix of reality and projection as well.

The Daily Mail? That is your source?

Are you now saying 10 million dead?

Even without this virus on average 7000 people die in the USA a day. What difference does it make if the NY has used the National Guard to transport some of them?


I have the my projections on total US coronavirus deaths at 15-20M. I will be surprised if it only ends up at the early projections of 3-5M. There are a lot of sources about NY not accurately counting the death total along with them digging mass graves. It will get bad like that in other places soon as this continues to spread through the population.

We had 8K Americans die per day last year. We are seeing 2K/day right now from the virus alone, which means an ADDITIONAL 2K. With 1K of those being in NY right now. That is overloading the system. The infrastructure in place is not set up to handle it that is why the national guard is rounding up corpses in rental vehicles. That is why they are digging mass graves to bury people in.

If you are asking if I care about how they get rid of the bodies? No. However, it is a reflection on how much more death there is then normal. Another side effect is that if they can't quickly dispose of the bodies they will attract rodents and bugs that might help spread the disease. This is something that was an issue with the black plague. Italy also has been having to use their military to collect bodies and I'm sure France and Spain will if they are not already. Do I care if 30M Americans die from this, which will most likely include both of my parents, not particularly. I do not want my parents to die, but that is the cycle of life. We are all born terminal and if this takes me out then so be it. I'm looking at data and processing it to calculate what I expect to happen. I could be wrong and it could only end up being "only" 250K dead as the government has been trying to push recently in a drastic change in opinion.

I am against closing things down and telling people to stay inside. People think that is a contradiction for me to believe it is as bad as I do AND to think everyone should be out passing it around. I don't care about "flattening the curve". Get it through the population and over with. It will be another year or longer until there is a vaccine. It is not healthy for us to be isolated and inside for a year mentally or physically. Forget about the economic issues we are causing.


your thought process here seems out of character, to me.
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Re: 2019-20 OKC Thunder Regular Season Thread 

Post#669 » by Kizz Fastfists » Thu Apr 16, 2020 5:52 pm

slick_watts wrote:your thought process here seems out of character, to me.


How so? I don't care for people, myself included, so if nature wants to thin the herd let it do it's thing. No, I'm no suicidal or anything like that. I am just indifferent on death as it is a natural part of the life cycle. We are all born terminal. I have a close friend right now that I have been trying to go see a doctor for the last two days and she keeps saying she will if it gets worse. We both believe she has it and she has finally agreed to go get it looked at tomorrow.

Her husband, brainwashed government idiot who did his 20 in the military and then went to work for the DoD treats this as nothing, because that is what he is told. The fact that his job is now being done remotely despite being told for years that it couldn't be hasn't helped him realize how serious this is that the government is locking down bases and changing the definition of essential personnel for this disease. The fact that we ow know that WHO lied, either because they believed what China told them or they were given the truth and told to tell lies, should concern everyone who thinks any global organization is actually interested in helping the US.

If WHO had said on 1/14, when they finished their "investigation" that this was passed through human contact then travel would have been stopped then and this would have been greatly slowed without the need for full shutdowns on State and City levels here. At least on the level we are seeing. NY might still be shut down because of their Chinese population and a few other areas. However, we wouldn't be seeing people arrested for exercising their 1st amendment rights like we are seeing in NC.
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Re: 2019-20 OKC Thunder Regular Season Thread 

Post#670 » by slick_watts » Thu Apr 16, 2020 6:40 pm

Kizz Fastfists wrote:
slick_watts wrote:your thought process here seems out of character, to me.


How so? I don't care for people, myself included, so if nature wants to thin the herd let it do it's thing. No, I'm no suicidal or anything like that. I am just indifferent on death as it is a natural part of the life cycle. We are all born terminal. I have a close friend right now that I have been trying to go see a doctor for the last two days and she keeps saying she will if it gets worse. We both believe she has it and she has finally agreed to go get it looked at tomorrow.

Her husband, brainwashed government idiot who did his 20 in the military and then went to work for the DoD treats this as nothing, because that is what he is told. The fact that his job is now being done remotely despite being told for years that it couldn't be hasn't helped him realize how serious this is that the government is locking down bases and changing the definition of essential personnel for this disease. The fact that we ow know that WHO lied, either because they believed what China told them or they were given the truth and told to tell lies, should concern everyone who thinks any global organization is actually interested in helping the US.

If WHO had said on 1/14, when they finished their "investigation" that this was passed through human contact then travel would have been stopped then and this would have been greatly slowed without the need for full shutdowns on State and City levels here. At least on the level we are seeing. NY might still be shut down because of their Chinese population and a few other areas. However, we wouldn't be seeing people arrested for exercising their 1st amendment rights like we are seeing in NC.


the manic fatalism ('if nature wants to thin the herd let it do its thing') is unexpected. but, perhaps that just reveals how little we learn about one another through the lens of basketball viewing.

the geopolitical commentary isn't anything unusual or unexpected.
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Re: 2019-20 OKC Thunder Regular Season Thread 

Post#671 » by Galloisdaman » Fri Apr 17, 2020 4:39 pm

Kizz Fastfists wrote:
slick_watts wrote:your thought process here seems out of character, to me.


How so? I don't care for people, myself included, so if nature wants to thin the herd let it do it's thing. No, I'm no suicidal or anything like that. I am just indifferent on death as it is a natural part of the life cycle. We are all born terminal. I have a close friend right now that I have been trying to go see a doctor for the last two days and she keeps saying she will if it gets worse. We both believe she has it and she has finally agreed to go get it looked at tomorrow.

Her husband, brainwashed government idiot who did his 20 in the military and then went to work for the DoD treats this as nothing, because that is what he is told. The fact that his job is now being done remotely despite being told for years that it couldn't be hasn't helped him realize how serious this is that the government is locking down bases and changing the definition of essential personnel for this disease. The fact that we ow know that WHO lied, either because they believed what China told them or they were given the truth and told to tell lies, should concern everyone who thinks any global organization is actually interested in helping the US.

If WHO had said on 1/14, when they finished their "investigation" that this was passed through human contact then travel would have been stopped then and this would have been greatly slowed without the need for full shutdowns on State and City levels here. At least on the level we are seeing. NY might still be shut down because of their Chinese population and a few other areas. However, we wouldn't be seeing people arrested for exercising their 1st amendment rights like we are seeing in NC.


I believe the USA if not the world is overpopulated so if we could flip a switch and have less people without so many people/families being hurt in a hypothetical world I might be okay with that but that is impossible. I believe your claims that we will have 10-15 million people die in the USA are incredibly off base.
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Re: 2019-20 OKC Thunder Regular Season Thread 

Post#672 » by Kizz Fastfists » Fri Apr 17, 2020 6:08 pm

Galloisdaman wrote:I believe the USA if not the world is overpopulated so if we could flip a switch and have less people without so many people/families being hurt in a hypothetical world I might be okay with that but that is impossible. I believe your claims that we will have 10-15 million people die in the USA are incredibly off base.


Over the timeline I initially thought I have to concede that at this point. We'll see how they open things back up over the next few months. I'm guessing the first place to open will turn into a huge hot spot until they shut back down 4-6 weeks later. The rest of the Nation will see that and plan 2-3 weeks of opening and then shutting down for months. This will keep the deaths spread out over a very long time line never reaching the peak that is should have if we were going to be through with this by July. Instead it will be spread out of 12-18 months, or longer, depending on how long it takes them to develop an effective vaccine.

It is starting to look like with an open and closing cycle it will end up limited to around 1M deaths, but it will be over a much longer time frame. The question that will not be answered until this is over and we have a, theoretical, real death rate if I was right that it should have been left open or if closing it down was what contained it. If the death rate ends up being 1-2% then they should have left everything open from the start. If it ends up 5%+, like it currently is, then you can argue the financial and mental issues the lock down caused were worth it because of the lives "saved".

There will be no 2020 MLB, college football or NFL unless they play with no fans. There will be no finish to the '19-20 NBA season and no '20-'21 NBA season. None of that will matter if DC doesn't get off their lazy ass and get money to the people that are running out of food because they are forbidden from working. That $1200 kept most people fed for the month, but unless there is another $2K coming by May 1st where is the utility and food money coming from then? That's not even taking into account the food production facilities that are shutting down. Dragging this out instead of letting it run through fast could end up with massively more then 10M dead, but from human nature not from the virus.
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Re: 2019-20 OKC Thunder Regular Season Thread 

Post#673 » by getrichordie » Fri Apr 17, 2020 9:58 pm

Kizz Fastfists wrote:
Galloisdaman wrote:I believe the USA if not the world is overpopulated so if we could flip a switch and have less people without so many people/families being hurt in a hypothetical world I might be okay with that but that is impossible. I believe your claims that we will have 10-15 million people die in the USA are incredibly off base.


Over the timeline I initially thought I have to concede that at this point. We'll see how they open things back up over the next few months. I'm guessing the first place to open will turn into a huge hot spot until they shut back down 4-6 weeks later. The rest of the Nation will see that and plan 2-3 weeks of opening and then shutting down for months. This will keep the deaths spread out over a very long time line never reaching the peak that is should have if we were going to be through with this by July. Instead it will be spread out of 12-18 months, or longer, depending on how long it takes them to develop an effective vaccine.

It is starting to look like with an open and closing cycle it will end up limited to around 1M deaths, but it will be over a much longer time frame. The question that will not be answered until this is over and we have a, theoretical, real death rate if I was right that it should have been left open or if closing it down was what contained it. If the death rate ends up being 1-2% then they should have left everything open from the start. If it ends up 5%+, like it currently is, then you can argue the financial and mental issues the lock down caused were worth it because of the lives "saved".

There will be no 2020 MLB, college football or NFL unless they play with no fans. There will be no finish to the '19-20 NBA season and no '20-'21 NBA season. None of that will matter if DC doesn't get off their lazy ass and get money to the people that are running out of food because they are forbidden from working. That $1200 kept most people fed for the month, but unless there is another $2K coming by May 1st where is the utility and food money coming from then? That's not even taking into account the food production facilities that are shutting down. Dragging this out instead of letting it run through fast could end up with massively more then 10M dead, but from human nature not from the virus.


10m dead? How did you arrive to that conclusion?
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Re: 2019-20 OKC Thunder Regular Season Thread 

Post#674 » by Kizz Fastfists » Fri Apr 17, 2020 10:56 pm

getrichordie wrote:10m dead? How did you arrive to that conclusion?


If society breaks down over lack of food then 10M is probably a low estimate. Notice I said from human nature and not from the virus. If the supply chain breaks, and right now it is cracking, then humanity breaks down to basic survival instincts which is kill you and take what I need then move on and kill the next person for what they have that I need. The cities will become graveyards as groups go through killing and taking supplies.

That is a worse case scenario, but with several food processing plants shut down and supply chains strained because of a combination of lack of workers and having to shut down from contamination this is going to get worse. Reopening at this point might just complicate it as the supply chain won't heal quickly as a lot of "at risk" people will refuse to go back to work and places that process fresh foods, i.e. meat and produce, will be unwilling to open back up knowing that they could end up having to scrap another large amount of product which would basically be burning money.
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Re: 2019-20 OKC Thunder Regular Season Thread 

Post#675 » by Atomic Punk » Fri Apr 17, 2020 11:26 pm

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Re: 2019-20 OKC Thunder Regular Season Thread 

Post#676 » by Galloisdaman » Sat Apr 18, 2020 1:01 am

Atomic Punk wrote:Numbers don’t lie:

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/COVID19/index.htm


Only 16 deaths in the USA up to 24 years old? Interesting.
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Re: 2019-20 OKC Thunder Regular Season Thread 

Post#677 » by jambalaya » Sun Apr 19, 2020 5:05 am

Roberson ready?
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Re: 2019-20 OKC Thunder Regular Season Thread 

Post#678 » by getrichordie » Sun Apr 19, 2020 8:07 am

jambalaya wrote:Roberson ready?


I know I am. It will be a sight to behold after him being out for 2 years and 3 months. Are there any other recent examples of players being out this long and then returning? Rose?
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Re: 2019-20 OKC Thunder Regular Season Thread 

Post#679 » by jambalaya » Sun Apr 19, 2020 10:08 pm

I don't care enough to look up who has been out longest but Wall is up there. Cousins with a brief return. Livingston. Jay Williams. Okur. Oden. Bynum, I think.
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Re: 2019-20 OKC Thunder Regular Season Thread 

Post#680 » by Galloisdaman » Mon Apr 20, 2020 3:05 am

Not recent but Bernard King was out over 2 years with his knee.
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