2019-2020 College/Draft thread (Part 3)

[malik959]

I did 20 boredom rolls on tankathon eariler

we got picks 1-4. 8/20 times. That's 40%, pretty close to the actual odds of 37.2%

Out of those 8 times, We took LaMelo 5 times (3 times with the 1st pick, once with the 2nd and once with the 3rd, and 1 each of Wiseman (3rd, LaMelo and Edwards went 1-2), Edwards (2nd, LaMelo went 1st) and Avdija (4th, Lamelo, Edwards, Wiseman went 1-3)

The other 12 times, we got either 7th or 8th. We took Hayes every time. Did not land 6th, 9th, or 10th. The odds of selecting 6th, 9th, or 10th are extremely low.

We will very likely be selecting 7th or 8th. Hayes should be available there and that's who I hope we would draft. However Cole is also going to be there.

LaMelo, Edwards, Wiseman, and Avdija are always in the top 4 and the Knicks would draft them in that order based on who is still available. So the chances of drafting Wiseman or Avdija are also low and would depend on getting 3rd or 4th and LaMelo or Edwards not being on the board. I have seen scenarios where the Knicks take LaMelo 4th because Wiseman Edwards and Avdija go top 3.

What I might expect based on this assuming no trades or anything wonky
Hayes or Cole, 62% based on Knicks preference between these two
LaMelo 27%
Edwards 5%
Wiseman 3%
Avdija 2%
Haliburton 1%

Edit: after rolling the crap out of it enough, I did manage to get 9th (3.7% chance). In that scenario Hayes is gone and they take Haliburton with Cole still on the board. I still think the Knicks would take Cole over Haliburton but I suppose it's not impossible so I accounted for it

Was bored so I took my chances at 20 --

TANKATHON SIMULATIONS
10. Haliburton (Cole 11th)
7. Hayes
8. Hayes
4. Avdjia
8. Hayes
6. Hayes
4. Avdija
6. Hayes
1. Ball
2. ball (behind Wiseman over Edwards)

1. Ball
6. Hayes
7. Hayes
7. Hayes
8. Hayes

7. Hayes
7. Hayes
7. Hayes
3. Wiseman (Edwards1; Ball 2)
4. Avdija
Hayes 12; Avdija 3; Ball 3; Wiseman 1; Haliburton 1
1-4 ( 7 /20)

I got pick 6 three times and we took Hayes every time.
Avdija seems like our solid 2nd chance in my tries at least.

it's incredible you got 10th the first try with the 0.1% chance. I've never managed to do it. And I've rolled on it a lot

It's just funny to me that no matter what we still get the players we want most, which is how I feel about being at 6. For the first time most teams are in need of a forward where we need a guard so this draft can actually work in our favor.

[Jeff Van Gully]

Just finished and uploaded my latest Prospect Breakdown video on Anthony Edwards. I have him as number 1 on my draft board. His offensive package and physical gifts are bananas. But don’t worry I hit on his weaknesses as well.

Watch on YouTube

great job. thanks for sharing. i think he is a great prospect, but as i've said before, he could not pan out like a ben mclemore.

[jvsimonetti0514]

Would y'all draft Deni over Hayes?

I don't really see all star player upside with Deni, so Hayes would be my choice between the two.

[jvsimonetti0514]

I don't really understand the love affair some people have with Haliburton. Y'all really want a point guard that struggles getting dribble penetration in the half court? I get that we need shooting but we still need a primary ball handler. I'm not really sure if Haliburton has any off the dribble game either. It probably make more sense to draft him if we were still running the triangle but i don't think he does want modern NBA teams need from their point guard.

[HEZI]

Just finished and uploaded my latest Prospect Breakdown video on Anthony Edwards. I have him as number 1 on my draft board. His offensive package and physical gifts are bananas. But don’t worry I hit on his weaknesses as well.

Watch on YouTube

great job. thanks for sharing. i think he is a great prospect, but as i've said before, he could not pan out like a ben mclemore.

Then again he could become one of the best scoring guards in the league. There is a risk factor of course but that's the case with most picks. His ability to get a shot off over anybody is so intriguing and that Durant like shooting form and the way he can rise up with unlimited range mixed in with his explosiveness and ball handling makes him so tough to pass up imo. He is so good at creating separation at such a young age, those step backs and snatchbacks and in and out dribbles are elite level already. His playmaking is also underrated as he ran a lot of their offense being a PG and scoring guard and there just seems to be a lot of untapped potential with the kid that personally I would be really worried about passing him up.

[CoreyVillains]

Just finished and uploaded my latest Prospect Breakdown video on Anthony Edwards. I have him as number 1 on my draft board. His offensive package and physical gifts are bananas. But don’t worry I hit on his weaknesses as well.

Watch on YouTube

great job. thanks for sharing. i think he is a great prospect, but as i've said before, he could not pan out like a ben mclemore.

Thank you! I think his aggressiveness sets him apart from ending up like McLemore. I hope he ends up with a strong organization and coaching staff bc all he needs to do is clean up the shot selection. If a coach allows him some freedom but can hold him accountable, sky is the limit.

[finestrg]

Happy Easter to all!

Just praying the Knicks give this guy a good look when the time comes. I have too many questions with all the guards in this draft. This guy, meanwhile, continues to feel like a can't miss to me. 6'10" 240 with long arms. Legit C that plays both ends. Already very skilled and esp. offensively, that skill set will only continue to grow (if I drafted this kid, my first order of business would be to get him with the best offensive big man coach I could find -- Hakeem the Dream, if he still does his big man mini-camp instruction, or someone like Carmelo maybe, if he decides to hang it up for good). The rest is instinctual and he does it all well (rebounding, shot-blocking, and he's a real worker, not afraid to get dirty down low). Love everything about him. Cannot believe so many mock drafts out there are undervaluing him the way they are. Complete mystery to me. Just the numbers alone scream lottery pick.

I've been saying a better version of Al Horford all along. Even a Myles Turner/Andre Drummond hybrid with his outside shooting touch paired with the muscle/dirty work/lunch pail inside game -- he's actually already a pretty damn good post player to boot, much better than Andre Drummond). Just read someone on YouTube comparing him to a Hassan Whiteside with a better jumper -- I like that comparison too, think it's accurate. I understand most think he's a reach but to me, if Wiseman and Toppin are off the board, this would be my guy. Just screams quality/production right away COUPLED WITH upside/even higher ceiling to me.

Watch on YouTube

[3toheadmelo]

Read on Twitter

[RHODEY]

I did 20 boredom rolls on tankathon eariler

we got picks 1-4. 8/20 times. That's 40%, pretty close to the actual odds of 37.2%

Out of those 8 times, We took LaMelo 5 times (3 times with the 1st pick, once with the 2nd and once with the 3rd, and 1 each of Wiseman (3rd, LaMelo and Edwards went 1-2), Edwards (2nd, LaMelo went 1st) and Avdija (4th, Lamelo, Edwards, Wiseman went 1-3)

The other 12 times, we got either 7th or 8th. We took Hayes every time. Did not land 6th, 9th, or 10th. The odds of selecting 6th, 9th, or 10th are extremely low.

We will very likely be selecting 7th or 8th. Hayes should be available there and that's who I hope we would draft. However Cole is also going to be there.

LaMelo, Edwards, Wiseman, and Avdija are always in the top 4 and the Knicks would draft them in that order based on who is still available. So the chances of drafting Wiseman or Avdija are also low and would depend on getting 3rd or 4th and LaMelo or Edwards not being on the board. I have seen scenarios where the Knicks take LaMelo 4th because Wiseman Edwards and Avdija go top 3.

What I might expect based on this assuming no trades or anything wonky
Hayes or Cole, 62% based on Knicks preference between these two
LaMelo 27%
Edwards 5%
Wiseman 3%
Avdija 2%
Haliburton 1%

Edit: after rolling the crap out of it enough, I did manage to get 9th (3.7% chance). In that scenario Hayes is gone and they take Haliburton with Cole still on the board. I still think the Knicks would take Cole over Haliburton but I suppose it's not impossible so I accounted for it

I really like Haliburton’s fit with this team based on his skills and BBIQ. I really don’t like Cole and think he’ll be a bust or bench piece at best. He’s too ball dominant, has questionable decision making, and not a great shooter.

Haliburton is my pick too.

I believe he's underrated. I think he could be a 6'5" George Hill, he's just smart like that. ....and I would definitely prefer him over Cole Anthony.

[Jeff Van Gully]

Just finished and uploaded my latest Prospect Breakdown video on Anthony Edwards. I have him as number 1 on my draft board. His offensive package and physical gifts are bananas. But don’t worry I hit on his weaknesses as well.

Watch on YouTube

great job. thanks for sharing. i think he is a great prospect, but as i've said before, he could not pan out like a ben mclemore.

Then again he could become one of the best scoring guards in the league. There is a risk factor of course but that's the case with most picks. His ability to get a shot off over anybody is so intriguing and that Durant like shooting form and the way he can rise up with unlimited range mixed in with his explosiveness and ball handling makes him so tough to pass up imo. He is so good at creating separation at such a young age, those step backs and snatchbacks and in and out dribbles are elite level already. His playmaking is also underrated as he ran a lot of their offense being a PG and scoring guard and there just seems to be a lot of untapped potential with the kid that personally I would be really worried about passing him up.

yeah, the risk/reward is really high. that was my point. not trying to downplay him or over accentuate the negatives. you have to take your shot. i'd be excited about him. his potential is immense. lamelo is the only player i would THINK of taking before him #1 overall.

[malik959]

I really like Haliburton’s fit with this team based on his skills and BBIQ. I really don’t like Cole and think he’ll be a bust or bench piece at best. He’s too ball dominant, has questionable decision making, and not a great shooter.

Haliburton is my pick too.

I believe he's underrated. I think he could be a 6'5" George Hill, he's just smart like that. ....and I would definitely prefer him over Cole Anthony.

George Hill is actually a pretty good comparison in their style of play. Young George was very underrated and a team first point guard who knew how to get his players in a good position to score. He really blossomed when he played for the Pacer, but however I do believe Tyrese is the better defender and passer. George Hill did a great job staying in front of his opponent, but was never known as being a great defender where Tyrese can possibly be a first/second team defender due to his height and length. Truly a better comparison would be a Shaun Livingston before the injury

[3toheadmelo]

If Haliburton improves his handle then he’ll be really good. He checks all the other boxes for me. His handle is pretty basic

[3toheadmelo]

Cole Anthony is projected to go #13 in the latest DX draft. If the Knicks are going point guard instead of BPA with our pick then it will be between Haliburton and Hayes.

[robillionaire]

Happy Easter to all!

Just praying the Knicks give this guy a good look when the time comes. I have too many questions with all the guards in this draft. This guy, meanwhile, continues to feel like a can't miss to me. 6'10" 240 with long arms. Legit C that plays both ends. Already very skilled and esp. offensively, that skill set will only continue to grow (if I drafted this kid, my first order of business would be to get him with the best offensive big man coach I could find -- Hakeem the Dream, if he still does his big man mini-camp instruction, or someone like Carmelo maybe, if he decides to hang it up for good). The rest is instinctual and he does it all well (rebounding, shot-blocking, and he's a real worker, not afraid to get dirty down low). Love everything about him. Cannot believe so many mock drafts out there are undervaluing him the way they are. Complete mystery to me. Just the numbers alone scream lottery pick.

I've been saying a better version of Al Horford all along. Even a Myles Turner/Andre Drummond hybrid with his outside shooting touch paired with the muscle/dirty work/lunch pail inside game -- he's actually already a pretty damn good post player to boot, much better than Andre Drummond). Just read someone on YouTube comparing him to a Hassan Whiteside with a better jumper -- I like that comparison too, think it's accurate. I understand most think he's a reach but to me, if Wiseman and Toppin are off the board, this would be my guy. Just screams quality/production right away COUPLED WITH upside/even higher ceiling to me.

Watch on YouTube

the consensus seems to be he's not a first round pick so if you really like him I feel like we could very comfortably select him with our 27th pick which would not be much of a reach at all (espn and tankathon have him going 33rd in their latest mock) and take another good player along with him using our top 10 pick then you could have two good players instead of him and the 27th pick

[Juco24]

Would y'all draft Deni over Hayes?

Yes I would. While I haven't watched either play. Deni looks more fluid imo and his shot looks NBA ready.

I'll admit Frank plays a part in my thoughts because:
* I'm not sure selecting another French PG is the way to go
* Frank showed signs (I know I know) of being able to man the PG spot.

Looking at RJ & Mitch, I'd rather have Deni with them as opposed to Hayes because Hayes seems to need the ball in his hands and I think the ball should be with RJ more.

[RHODEY]

Haliburton is my pick too.

I believe he's underrated. I think he could be a 6'5" George Hill, he's just smart like that. ....and I would definitely prefer him over Cole Anthony.

George Hill is actually a pretty good comparison in their style of play. Young George was very underrated and a team first point guard who knew how to get his players in a good position to score. He really blossomed when he played for the Pacer, but however I do believe Tyrese is the better defender and passer. George Hill did a great job staying in front of his opponent, but was never known as being a great defender where Tyrese can possibly be a first/second team defender due to his height and length. Truly a better comparison would be a Shaun Livingston before the injury

Right, a rich mans George Hill is a damn good player. The athleticism doesn't standout but the high IQ , feel for the game, shooting touch and unselfish team play contribute to wins.

PS I thought George was known for being a very good defender in his younger years?

[RHODEY]

Cole Anthony is projected to go #13 in the latest DX draft. If the Knicks are going point guard instead of BPA with our pick then it will be between Haliburton and Hayes.

It should be between Haliburton and Hayes, but historically the knick's decision makers have been very conservative and concerned with perception.. This gives the advantage to bigger named types like Lamelo and Cole.. I dont trust that they've changed in this aspect .. until I see it.

[Zenzibar]

Happy Easter to all!

Just praying the Knicks give this guy a good look when the time comes. I have too many questions with all the guards in this draft. This guy, meanwhile, continues to feel like a can't miss to me. 6'10" 240 with long arms. Legit C that plays both ends. Already very skilled and esp. offensively, that skill set will only continue to grow (if I drafted this kid, my first order of business would be to get him with the best offensive big man coach I could find -- Hakeem the Dream, if he still does his big man mini-camp instruction, or someone like Carmelo maybe, if he decides to hang it up for good). The rest is instinctual and he does it all well (rebounding, shot-blocking, and he's a real worker, not afraid to get dirty down low). Love everything about him. Cannot believe so many mock drafts out there are undervaluing him the way they are. Complete mystery to me. Just the numbers alone scream lottery pick.

I've been saying a better version of Al Horford all along. Even a Myles Turner/Andre Drummond hybrid with his outside shooting touch paired with the muscle/dirty work/lunch pail inside game -- he's actually already a pretty damn good post player to boot, much better than Andre Drummond). Just read someone on YouTube comparing him to a Hassan Whiteside with a better jumper -- I like that comparison too, think it's accurate. I understand most think he's a reach but to me, if Wiseman and Toppin are off the board, this would be my guy. Just screams quality/production right away COUPLED WITH upside/even higher ceiling to me.

Watch on YouTube

This is the type of pick that would be a nice addition in the team's young player development.

[malik959]

I believe he's underrated. I think he could be a 6'5" George Hill, he's just smart like that. ....and I would definitely prefer him over Cole Anthony.

George Hill is actually a pretty good comparison in their style of play. Young George was very underrated and a team first point guard who knew how to get his players in a good position to score. He really blossomed when he played for the Pacer, but however I do believe Tyrese is the better defender and passer. George Hill did a great job staying in front of his opponent, but was never known as being a great defender where Tyrese can possibly be a first/second team defender due to his height and length. Truly a better comparison would be a Shaun Livingston before the injury

Right, a rich mans George Hill is a damn good player. The athleticism doesn't standout but the high IQ , feel for the game, shooting touch and unselfish team play contribute to wins.

PS I thought George was known for being a very good defender in his younger years?

George Hill has never averaged more than 1.1 spg. He's good at staying in front of his opponent, but was never great. At his size you can't switch him to guard shooting guards or even forwards so I would never call him a great defender.

[thebuzzardman]

I have complete faith in the Knicks to blow the pick, whoever it is, and pass on at least two players who turn out to be excellent