Semi-OT: Coronavirus (COVID-19) Discussion Thread

[Zenzibar]

Understand that we're not diminishing the impact viruses have had on lives throughout centuries and advances of medicines to eradicate these.
What was written was awareness that not everyone looked at it with solely benevolent eyes for everyone.

Sure, many questionable things were done in the name of medical ‘science’ in the past, but you can’t even get published now without rigorous ethical approval, and I am fairly confident about current standards in the western world. Syphillis isn’t caused by a virus btw.

I believe vaccination has been of great benefit in first world countries, and the anti vaccination movement here has been associated with deaths from pertussis in infants in places where the vaccination rate is low. People talk of SSPE from measles vaccination but the rate is much higher if you actually get measles to which I remain immune having contracted it as a child in the 60s as everyone did back then. As a medical worker I got vaccinated against Hep B which is pretty much an ethical responsibility, and will get vaccinated against influenza now for similar reasons.

I am not sure what sort of vaccines they are working on for this virus, and don’t have much current knowledge about vaccination in general, but your concerns would perhaps mainly apply to a live attenuated virus, which would presumably be the type of vaccine which would have the longest lead time and require the most testing in regard to safety, and there are as I understand it several other technologies now.

You sound informative, therefore your expertise in the subject matter will be acknowledged.

Let me however ask you, if all current flu vaccine applications are the same across the board?

Or if each vaccine has a batch number and are distributed by the type of health insurance you prescribe to. Just a simple question, that you may be able to further confirm.

[michaelm]

Understand that we're not diminishing the impact viruses have had on lives throughout centuries and advances of medicines to eradicate these.
What was written was awareness that not everyone looked at it with solely benevolent eyes for everyone.

Sure, many questionable things were done in the name of medical ‘science’ in the past, but you can’t even get published now without rigorous ethical approval, and I am fairly confident about current standards in the western world. Syphillis isn’t caused by a virus btw.

I believe vaccination has been of great benefit in first world countries, and the anti vaccination movement here has been associated with deaths from pertussis in infants in places where the vaccination rate is low. People talk of SSPE from measles vaccination but the rate is much higher if you actually get measles to which I remain immune having contracted it as a child in the 60s as everyone did back then. As a medical worker I got vaccinated against Hep B which is pretty much an ethical responsibility, and will get vaccinated against influenza now for similar reasons.

I am not sure what sort of vaccines they are working on for this virus, and don’t have much current knowledge about vaccination in general, but your concerns would perhaps mainly apply to a live attenuated virus, which would presumably be the type of vaccine which would have the longest lead time and require the most testing in regard to safety, and there are as I understand it several other technologies now.

You sound informative, therefore your expertise in the subject matter will be acknowledged.

Let me however ask you, if all current flu vaccine applications are the same across the board?

Or if each vaccine has a batch number and are distributed by the type of health insurance you prescribe to. Just a simple question, that you may be able to further confirm.

I believe influenza vaccines can be of varying types. As a decidedly not undernourished adult Australian I am happy to have whatever is recommended as the best, for the protection of my patients. Like you I hardly ever get influenza or whatever although I think I probably did get swine flu in 2009 on a plane flight to the US, and haven’t bothered to get vaccinated previously even though I am now in my early 60s.

I can see some logic in your argument in regard to vaccination in developing nations, particularly live attenuated viruses, and even when I was a medical student we had a lecture as a counterpoint from a doctor who was concerned about vaccinating indigenous Australians as opposed to the much more affluent broader community. From other sources there were definitely some cases of polio from polio vaccination with the recent program as you say, although such sources claim much less of an impact than the article you referenced and argue preventative benefit, an argument which would admittedly somewhat depend on how much polio was around before the program.

[Stillwater]

Just a little note on my observations in Ohio lately which is "supposed to be" doing better than many locations:
1 many people are only half-hearted about following the guidelines by my observations almost as if they don't understand airborne disease transfer as if googling it would be beyond their ability.
2 more than typical amounts of people of all ages are coughing and sneezing ...for some reason who knows what if it's covid or other...but it seems pretty obvious its covid.
3 families are gathering together for outdoor cookouts and gatherings of less than 10 people. today esp being Easter and although most are not hugging each other or sharing beverages, the air space is definitely less than 6' and almost noone is wearing masks even though it's easy as f to make one if you didn't already have one or two in your garage like most diy Americans.
4 absolutely way to many kids walking around with each other including playing catch etc...same ball same snot same hand to face etc.

[G R E Y]

If true, this is the most disturbing article I’ve read on the virus. Based on an new German study, it suggests that this virus is like HIV and Hep C in that our antibodies don’t really kill the virus so we basically have it forever like HIV. And that also suggests a vaccine might not be possible but rather we have to treat it with a cocktail of drugs like HIV.

https://www.thedailybeast.com/heres-where-coronavirus-hides-in-your-body

Yeah as michaelm pointed out, there are drugs that eliminate Hep-C, so in that way it's not like HIV even as antibodies with both have the same result. So hopefully Covid-19 goes the path of Hep-C in terms of response to future drugs.

[azcatz11]

Just a little note on my observations in Ohio lately which is "supposed to be" doing better than many locations:
1 many people are only half-hearted about following the guidelines by my observations almost as if they don't understand airborne disease transfer as if googling it would be beyond their ability.
2 more than typical amounts of people of all ages are coughing and sneezing ...for some reason who knows what if it's covid or other...but it seems pretty obvious its covid.
3 families are gathering together for outdoor cookouts and gatherings of less than 10 people. today esp being Easter and although most are not hugging each other or sharing beverages, the air space is definitely less than 6' and almost noone is wearing masks even though it's easy as f to make one if you didn't already have one or two in your garage like most diy Americans.
4 absolutely way to many kids walking around with each other including playing catch etc...same ball same snot same hand to face etc.

Stop working yourself up man...seriously.

[Zenzibar]

Sure, many questionable things were done in the name of medical ‘science’ in the past, but you can’t even get published now without rigorous ethical approval, and I am fairly confident about current standards in the western world. Syphillis isn’t caused by a virus btw.

I believe vaccination has been of great benefit in first world countries, and the anti vaccination movement here has been associated with deaths from pertussis in infants in places where the vaccination rate is low. People talk of SSPE from measles vaccination but the rate is much higher if you actually get measles to which I remain immune having contracted it as a child in the 60s as everyone did back then. As a medical worker I got vaccinated against Hep B which is pretty much an ethical responsibility, and will get vaccinated against influenza now for similar reasons.

I am not sure what sort of vaccines they are working on for this virus, and don’t have much current knowledge about vaccination in general, but your concerns would perhaps mainly apply to a live attenuated virus, which would presumably be the type of vaccine which would have the longest lead time and require the most testing in regard to safety, and there are as I understand it several other technologies now.

You sound informative, therefore your expertise in the subject matter will be acknowledged.

Let me however ask you, if all current flu vaccine applications are the same across the board?

Or if each vaccine has a batch number and are distributed by the type of health insurance you prescribe to. Just a simple question, that you may be able to further confirm.

I believe influenza vaccines can be of varying types. As a decidedly not undernourished adult Australian I am happy to have whatever is recommended as the best, for the protection of my patients. Like you I hardly ever get influenza or whatever although I think I probably did get swine flu in 2009 on a plane flight to the US, and haven’t bothered to get vaccinated previously even though I am now in my early 60s.

I can see some logic in your argument in regard to vaccination in developing nations, particularly live attenuated viruses, and even when I was a medical student we had a lecture as a counterpoint from a doctor who was concerned about vaccinating indigenous Australians as opposed to the much more affluent broader community. From other sources there were definitely some cases of polio from polio vaccination with the recent program as you say, although such sources claim much less of an impact than the article you referenced and argue preventative benefit, an argument which would admittedly somewhat depend on how much polio was around before the program.

Got you. Appreciate your response MichaelM.

[Triples333]

Interesting observation in California today. I went out with a friend to play disk golf and there was quite a few people out playing (I'd say 30, but all fairly widely spread out within their own small family groups), but then I went into the local smaller drug-store/market to grab a couple things on the way home (out of paper towels and so were they, but settled for wine and bone broth) and while it was quiet, literally nobody had a mask on.

No provocative thoughts one way or another. Just observations.

[azcatz11]

Interesting observation in California today. I went out with a friend to play disk golf and there was quite a few people out playing (I'd say 30, but all fairly widely spread out within their own small family groups), but then I went into the local smaller drug-store/market to grab a couple things on the way home and while it was quiet, literally nobody had a mask on.

No provocative thoughts one way or another. Just observations.

That's a good thing...golf is still open here in AZ but the requirement is one per cart. Oh, but I saw a group of people sneezing on each other so we're all screwed

[Triples333]

Interesting observation in California today. I went out with a friend to play disk golf and there was quite a few people out playing (I'd say 30, but all fairly widely spread out within their own small family groups), but then I went into the local smaller drug-store/market to grab a couple things on the way home and while it was quiet, literally nobody had a mask on.

No provocative thoughts one way or another. Just observations.

That's a good thing...golf is still open here in AZ but the requirement is one per cart. Oh, but I saw a group of people sneezing on each other so we're all screwed

Another interesting thing is that of 9/10 people or so in the store (again, me being the only one wearing my ski mask even), most were over 60. Including the lady at the register. Pretty odd honestly. They should in fact be much more careful.

[michaelm]

You sound informative, therefore your expertise in the subject matter will be acknowledged.

Let me however ask you, if all current flu vaccine applications are the same across the board?

Or if each vaccine has a batch number and are distributed by the type of health insurance you prescribe to. Just a simple question, that you may be able to further confirm.

I believe influenza vaccines can be of varying types. As a decidedly not undernourished adult Australian I am happy to have whatever is recommended as the best, for the protection of my patients. Like you I hardly ever get influenza or whatever although I think I probably did get swine flu in 2009 on a plane flight to the US, and haven’t bothered to get vaccinated previously even though I am now in my early 60s.

I can see some logic in your argument in regard to vaccination in developing nations, particularly live attenuated viruses, and even when I was a medical student we had a lecture as a counterpoint from a doctor who was concerned about vaccinating indigenous Australians as opposed to the much more affluent broader community. From other sources there were definitely some cases of polio from polio vaccination with the recent program as you say, although such sources claim much less of an impact than the article you referenced and argue preventative benefit, an argument which would admittedly somewhat depend on how much polio was around before the program.

Got you. Appreciate your response MichaelM.

The other thing I should have mentioned is that influenza is of course already endemic in the general Australian community and in Western nations in general, with pretty much everyone having had past exposure to some variety/varieties of that virus.

[SactoKingsFan]

Interesting observation in California today. I went out with a friend to play disk golf and there was quite a few people out playing (I'd say 30, but all fairly widely spread out within their own small family groups), but then I went into the local smaller drug-store/market to grab a couple things on the way home (out of paper towels and so were they, but settled for wine and bone broth) and while it was quiet, literally nobody had a mask on.

No provocative thoughts one way or another. Just observations.

I'm in Northern CA and only go to Trader Joe's since they have a really good system in place. All employees wear gloves + masks, only limited # of people at one time, markers to promote social distancing and you can't bring in reusable bags. They've also shut down every other check out station, installed plexiglass barriers and have someone always cleaning high use surfaces. Over half the shoppers were wearing some kind of mask.

Sent from my Pixel 3 using Tapatalk

[Triples333]

Interesting observation in California today. I went out with a friend to play disk golf and there was quite a few people out playing (I'd say 30, but all fairly widely spread out within their own small family groups), but then I went into the local smaller drug-store/market to grab a couple things on the way home (out of paper towels and so were they, but settled for wine and bone broth) and while it was quiet, literally nobody had a mask on.

No provocative thoughts one way or another. Just observations.

I'm in Northern CA and only go to Trader Joe's since they have a really good system in place. All employees wear gloves + masks, only limited # of people at one time, markers to promote social distancing and you can't bring in reusable bags. They've also shut down every other check out station, installed plexiglass barriers and have someone always cleaning high use surfaces. Over half the shoppers were wearing some kind of mask.

Sent from my Pixel 3 using Tapatalk

Yep, my family is in Northern Cali and this is the same mention. Interestingly our city is extremely low in cases
(granted, so is theirs) ... I have literally seen more wild bears hiking in the last 2 months than verified Covid patients in this county (4) .... Though more remote from the Bay Area but EXTREMELY high in international travel pre March.

Edit: Doing current research and apparently out of 1,100 tested 15 were indeed positive as of 4/12. With 9 fully healthy and 6 "active" but completely fine/not in care. Feeling for the sick and elderly in those cities that are actually getting hit, but this is not one of them to this point. And man are very little provisions being taken other than shutting down businesses and staying to small groups. Everyone is walking their dogs, playing disk golf, meeting up for hike ski-runs, etc. I just asked a good friend receiving chemo at the local hospital for breast cancer how things are looking, and she has corroborated that it's not remotely busy or seemingly alarming there. Says it is quiet.

It's interesting. Seems "shelter in place" is at the VERY least doing it's job up here safety wise... I would imagine they would generally have 100X as many ski/bike accidents in the hospital.

[Courtside]

At the risk of enraging our resident anti mask crusaders, I thought this was an interesting illustration based on actual studies.



So the N95 offers nearly 99% inbound protection (which is known, even though 95% is the minimum standard)
A surgical blocks out 75% and a teacloth mask blocks out 67%. These are not nothing.

As for outward protection, I find the numbers a little odd, though I guess it's because exhaling often leaks out the sides or bottom of any mask (even the 95s). Still, a surgical mask reduces contaminants by 50% and an N95 about 70%. These are also not nothing.

Combined together, it paints a pretty clear picture that if you want to slow both transmission and infection, mask wearing can be a substantive tool in doing so - and of course in combination with other measures.

Or in other words...

[molepharmer]

...I am not sure what sort of vaccines they are working on for this virus, and don’t have much current knowledge about vaccination in general, but your concerns would perhaps mainly apply to a live attenuated virus, which would presumably be the type of vaccine which would have the longest lead time and require the most testing in regard to safety, and there are as I understand it several other technologies now.

fwiw - from Nature (April 9, 2020)
The COVID-19 vaccine development landscape
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41573-020-00073-5

...Limitations:
•Vaccine development programmes described in languages other than English have not been systematically screened;
•The maturity assessment of the vaccine candidates is based on internal and publicly available information, and therefore may not capture the most up-to-date activities for all projects;
•A large amount of publicly available information comes from mediasources, which might not be completely reliable.

[bulliedog8]

Time to open the economy back up. Lets get things started again.

The whole reason for "shelter in place" and all these other draconian and authoritarian orders by mayors and governors was to "flatten the curve" (a made up curve that no one actually knew what it was), was to not overwhelm the hospitals. Well it looks like it worked. So what is the reasoning for continuing to push it further and further out? We literally accomplished what their goals were. We cant keep pushing this out forever. They extend the orders based on the models, time to shorter the orders based on the changes in the models.

Hopefully not too many people have been listening to the orders. Im happy to see a lot of people out. I was working out at a "closed" park. Need more people to just do what they want. Soon everyone should just say f it, and go to work. Lets get everyones lives going again.

[hippesthippo]

Interesting observation in California today. I went out with a friend to play disk golf and there was quite a few people out playing (I'd say 30, but all fairly widely spread out within their own small family groups), but then I went into the local smaller drug-store/market to grab a couple things on the way home and while it was quiet, literally nobody had a mask on.

No provocative thoughts one way or another. Just observations.

That's a good thing...golf is still open here in AZ but the requirement is one per cart. Oh, but I saw a group of people sneezing on each other so we're all screwed

Another interesting thing is that of 9/10 people or so in the store (again, me being the only one wearing my ski mask even), most were over 60. Including the lady at the register. Pretty odd honestly. They should in fact be much more careful.

I'd say mask usage is around 75% here at the stores. Of course, the people that aren't wearing masks are the teenagers working there that we are trying to protect.

Disc Golf courses are barren, but it's been a steady diet of rain. I can't speak for Ball Golf.

[Zenzibar]

I believe influenza vaccines can be of varying types. As a decidedly not undernourished adult Australian I am happy to have whatever is recommended as the best, for the protection of my patients. Like you I hardly ever get influenza or whatever although I think I probably did get swine flu in 2009 on a plane flight to the US, and haven’t bothered to get vaccinated previously even though I am now in my early 60s.

I can see some logic in your argument in regard to vaccination in developing nations, particularly live attenuated viruses, and even when I was a medical student we had a lecture as a counterpoint from a doctor who was concerned about vaccinating indigenous Australians as opposed to the much more affluent broader community. From other sources there were definitely some cases of polio from polio vaccination with the recent program as you say, although such sources claim much less of an impact than the article you referenced and argue preventative benefit, an argument which would admittedly somewhat depend on how much polio was around before the program.

Got you. Appreciate your response MichaelM.

The other thing I should have mentioned is that influenza is of course already endemic in the general Australian community and in Western nations in general, with pretty much everyone having had past exposure to some variety/varieties of that virus.

Got you. Also just wanted to confirm that what I stated was not that the said vaccine batches are different depending countries (developed/underdeveloped). But that the vaccine batches here are different and are applied depending on the type of medical insurance you have. Like a you get what you paid for distribution.

[dhsilv2]

100%. Without trying to make this political which any realistic person should be looking into. I'll just say this. The media is owned by a group of people. That group of people don't like one specific person. That specific person was on the gravy train to winning an election that would give him 4 more years of control over his job. Is this virus real? 100% absolutely. Is the media making it 100x worse? Well you tell me...The Connecticut governor literally came out and said a 6 month old died from coronavirus before an autopsy was ever conducted. Turns out the poor baby suffocated. So are there people out there trying to make this thing worse then it already is. That's the real problem. We have to go back to work. Not getting back to work/real life is going to end up destroying way more then the actual virus is.

I'm very interested to see what the guys like you and I, and I actually believe we are in the majority on this, will do if they try to extend this into May. That's when the riots will start. People will stop caring. It's already happening. People will say screw this ****. I'm going out and risking it. That day is going to come. Me? I'm kind of excited about that day.

It will be fun to see (it wont be fun actually) the suicide rates skyrocket and the crime rates to go up if they keep extending these "orders".

Everyone I know is itching to get back to work. Even my friends who were all for shelter in place and attacked me at the start. They are thinking this is getting ridiculous.

The biggest advocates for extending the shelter in place and "non" essentials not working are the ones who are still getting paid and working (government and media).

If I had a business, I would have never shut down. Of course I wouldnt force my employees to work if they didnt feel safe, but I would keep the business open and dare mayors and governors to shut me down. Would be a very easy case to win as I would take it up to the supreme court with these politicians doing unconstitutional orders.

A hell of a lot more of us are working than just government (actually a lot of them aren't) and media. That said from an economics point of view, the fear of a SECOND shutdown is FAR worse than this lasting too long. That's now where economists are focused, much more so than when to reopen even. We'll long term be far better off if this lasts a month or even two, too long vs doing it too soon.

[nikster]

100%. Without trying to make this political which any realistic person should be looking into. I'll just say this. The media is owned by a group of people. That group of people don't like one specific person. That specific person was on the gravy train to winning an election that would give him 4 more years of control over his job. Is this virus real? 100% absolutely. Is the media making it 100x worse? Well you tell me...The Connecticut governor literally came out and said a 6 month old died from coronavirus before an autopsy was ever conducted. Turns out the poor baby suffocated. So are there people out there trying to make this thing worse then it already is. That's the real problem. We have to go back to work. Not getting back to work/real life is going to end up destroying way more then the actual virus is.

I'm very interested to see what the guys like you and I, and I actually believe we are in the majority on this, will do if they try to extend this into May. That's when the riots will start. People will stop caring. It's already happening. People will say screw this ****. I'm going out and risking it. That day is going to come. Me? I'm kind of excited about that day.

It will be fun to see (it wont be fun actually) the suicide rates skyrocket and the crime rates to go up if they keep extending these "orders".

Everyone I know is itching to get back to work. Even my friends who were all for shelter in place and attacked me at the start. They are thinking this is getting ridiculous.

The biggest advocates for extending the shelter in place and "non" essentials not working are the ones who are still getting paid and working (government and media).

If I had a business, I would have never shut down. Of course I wouldnt force my employees to work if they didnt feel safe, but I would keep the business open and dare mayors and governors to shut me down. Would be a very easy case to win as I would take it up to the supreme court with these politicians doing unconstitutional orders.

the suicide rates wont come close to the deaths prevented from reduction in heart attack, stroke, motor vehicle or industrial accidents etc... Plus im not even expecting a large spike in suicides, other causes of stress for people (social anxiety, bullying, work) are removed as well

[dhsilv2]

100%. Without trying to make this political which any realistic person should be looking into. I'll just say this. The media is owned by a group of people. That group of people don't like one specific person. That specific person was on the gravy train to winning an election that would give him 4 more years of control over his job. Is this virus real? 100% absolutely. Is the media making it 100x worse? Well you tell me...The Connecticut governor literally came out and said a 6 month old died from coronavirus before an autopsy was ever conducted. Turns out the poor baby suffocated. So are there people out there trying to make this thing worse then it already is. That's the real problem. We have to go back to work. Not getting back to work/real life is going to end up destroying way more then the actual virus is.

I'm very interested to see what the guys like you and I, and I actually believe we are in the majority on this, will do if they try to extend this into May. That's when the riots will start. People will stop caring. It's already happening. People will say screw this ****. I'm going out and risking it. That day is going to come. Me? I'm kind of excited about that day.

It will be fun to see (it wont be fun actually) the suicide rates skyrocket and the crime rates to go up if they keep extending these "orders".

Everyone I know is itching to get back to work. Even my friends who were all for shelter in place and attacked me at the start. They are thinking this is getting ridiculous.

The biggest advocates for extending the shelter in place and "non" essentials not working are the ones who are still getting paid and working (government and media).

If I had a business, I would have never shut down. Of course I wouldnt force my employees to work if they didnt feel safe, but I would keep the business open and dare mayors and governors to shut me down. Would be a very easy case to win as I would take it up to the supreme court with these politicians doing unconstitutional orders.

the suicide rates wont come close to the deaths prevented from reduction in heart attack, stroke, motor vehicle or industrial accidents etc... Plus im not even expecting a large spike in suicides, other causes of stress for people (social anxiety, bullying, work) are removed as well

While I expect a fast recovery, it won't be that for everyone. We absolutely will see suicide due to the recession and that will be something that'll take time to really analyze and figure out the ultimately cause. So perhaps you're saying reductions elsewhere will reduce the net number...?